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wowza wowza look at all these great headlines on Patrick it is truly a new day!!

By duckhead   2012 Sep 27, 6:10am   6,894 views   23 comments   watch (3)   quote      

"There are tax advantages to owning." ---YES--- "Houses always increase in value in the long run." ---SHAKABOOM--- "Renters have no opportunity to build equity.” ---SCHWING--- Finally we see the doomerati coming to papa, amazing. Well now all you need to do next is follow up on these important points and buy buy buy houses, rent them out and become rich like ROBERTO REALTORO, and don’t forget this new genius MIKE2. Congrats MIKE2!!!! ZOOBOWOW

#housing

Comments 1-23 of 23     Last »

1   37108605   2012 Sep 27, 6:15am     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

HOT DAMN
enough lunacy to fill up CA.

2   rooemoore   2012 Sep 27, 6:16am     ↑ like (5)   ↓ dislike (6)   quote    

There would be no Patrick.net if he'd bought a house in Palo Alto in the 90s. And if he had, even after the current crash, he would have still seen an insane profit.*

But he didn't and so here we are.

* Not applicable for all neighborhoods. Your results may vary.

3   Goran_K   2012 Sep 27, 7:24am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

BACHINGA!

4   pazuzu   2012 Sep 27, 8:29am     ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike   quote    

5   rooemoore   2012 Sep 27, 2:30pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Billybigrig says

rooemoore says

There would be no Patrick.net if he'd bought a house in Palo Alto in the 90s. And if he had, even after the current crash, he would have still seen an insane profit.*

But he didn't and so here we are.

* Not applicable for all neighborhoods. Your results may vary.

And here you are hanging out the very place you dispise the most , I think the term is coined SADOMASOCHISM

Actually, I was making an observation. The area (Palo Alto and Menlo Park) that Patrick has been renting for years and years would have been a great investment.

Seems topical to this thread and this site. I don't despise Patrick.net. No need to be so negative about my observation. Then again, if I was underwater in Yorba Linda, I'd probably be cranky too. ;)

6   37108605   2012 Sep 27, 9:14pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

pazuzu says

That is a great image showing both remorse and shame and guilt. It could have been a cover a current book on this entire real estate disaster fiasco scam.

7   37108605   2012 Sep 27, 9:14pm     ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Billybigrig says

RentalWatch says

duckhead says

"There are tax advantages to owning." ---YES--- "Houses always increase in value in the long run." ---SHAKABOOM--- "Renters have no opportunity to build equity.” ---SCHWING--- Finally we see the doomerati coming to papa, amazing. Well now all you need to do next is follow up on these important points and buy buy buy houses, rent them out and become rich like ROBERTO REALTORO, and don’t forget this new genius MIKE2. Congrats MIKE2!!!! ZOOBOWOW

Pimping, pandering and whoring!!! WhEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

LoL! Priceless...

Like this smoke and mirror real estate more like OVERPRICED.

8   mike2   2014 Mar 30, 8:17pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

rooemoore says

There would be no Patrick.net if he'd bought a house in Palo Alto in the 90s. And if he had, even after the current crash, he would have still seen an insane profit.*

But he didn't and so here we are.

* Not applicable for all neighborhoods. Your results may vary.

9   mike2   2014 Mar 30, 8:19pm     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

What if he had bought a house in the year 2012 in Palo Alto?
He still would be 25% ahead or more? I am sure all the renters are now CRYING about their rents going skyhigh but if you had bought your payments would have been fixed. There are bidding wars on rentals now just like bidding wars on Buying. Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda!

10   CDon   2014 Mar 30, 11:10pm     ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike   quote    

This is a great thread...
- Duckhead (the Pazuzu sockpuppet) created to troll Iwog.
- Pazuzu responding to his own posts.
- Bubbabear (then billy big rig) engaged in a massive damage control campaign deleting all his old posts.
- The tenatious uber troll Rental Watch (aka realtors are liars), one of the few people banned by Patrick.
- The irascible Reader (now 37108605) who went on a 30 day one thousand post stemwinder before fizzling out like a neutron star.
Looking back, its truly amazing how poisonous the environment was here at what turned out to be the bottom of the market.

11   mike2   2014 Mar 31, 3:32am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

True that! They could all be in a good $$$ position right now or retired. Instead they are FUMING about those damn rent increases! COulda, woulda, shoulda!

12   FunTime   2014 Apr 2, 10:57am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

CDon says

Looking back, its truly amazing how poisonous the environment was here at what turned out to be the bottom of the market.

I'll keep pointing this out when I read statements like quoted. Tell me where the bottom was in thirty years. Unless you're meaning is "the bottom for the most recent downturn."

13   Rew   2014 Apr 2, 1:55pm     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

FunTime says

CDon says

Looking back, its truly amazing how poisonous the environment was here at what turned out to be the bottom of the market.

I'll keep pointing this out when I read statements like quoted. Tell me where the bottom was in thirty years. Unless you're meaning is "the bottom for the most recent downturn."

You are going to wait out the next thirty years to time the market? Or you mean you are going to keep checking back here for thirty years to prove a point to someone long disinterested on the internet?

Yuck.

Let's take worst case scenario from historical data. During the Great Depression and the recent housing market downturn, house prices tumbled 31% to 33%. I just did the math for my house, figuring in those 30 years I would pay off the house (provided I can remain employed through said economic woes). My equity in the house would have grown to 100% which would be a net 66% total gain over the initial downpayment. That's even with my house falling 31% in value. Sure, interest, maintenance, taxes, are all costs associate with owning the home as well, but as forced savings/investment into a major economic downturn, seems like a pretty reasonable deal to me.

In the doomsday scenario you paint, if you are renting and investing elsewhere, you are assuming less than a loss of 31%? Are you so sure those alternative investments are safe?

14   CDon   2014 Apr 2, 11:07pm     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

FunTime says

I'll keep pointing this out when I read statements like quoted. Tell me where the bottom was in thirty years.

You must be joking right? 30 years? Lets look at the case of the 1995 renter in SF when case shiller was around 65 - well off the 1990 peak of 75:

http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-ca-san-francisco-home-price-index

The issue at the time, raging in the early chatrooms of the usenet interwebs was - is now a good time? Despite these high (300K) prices, is it now safe to buy? Or are the bears right that another massive drop is right around the corner, and if we buy now we will be devastated when prices drop down to 225K?

Well, even though it has "only" been 19 years now, I am going to go out on a limb here...

Dear 1995-2014 renters - I hate to tell you this but the 225K prices you have been waiting 19 years for are NOT going to happen. DO NOT WAIT 30 YEARS to confirm this. Here, now, at the 19 year mark, cut your losses, admit your devastating mistake, pick up the pieces of your shattered dreams and go out and live - make the best of the time you have left. DO NOT spend the next 11 years waiting.

And again Funtime - the issue I raised here is the bottom. It is not about the merits of rent vs buy - it is not about whether buying is the best investment out there - the issue is the bottom which truly does not care whether it "makes sense" via some calculator or not.

Thus, the issue 1990-1995 and again 2005-2009 was - we are in a bubble - a limited temporal event which some people can wait out for a brief period of time such that they may buy closer to the bottom than the top.

For the people who can afford it - for the ones who one day want to simply buy a house and move on with their lives - I say, yes the bottom is here and gone. That Case Shiller value of 119 hit in March 2009 was indeed the bottom and you will never see it again.

Do you disagree? If you do - for those who passed on the 2009 levels of CS @ 119 - how much longer do you tell them to wait before you can safely conclude "gee I guess that really was the bottom after all"?

15   CDon   2014 Apr 2, 11:19pm     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

By the way Funtime - if you want to see the consequences of how this plays out - take a look at this discussion between myself and RFHTC near the end of this thread

http://patrick.net/?p=1221690

So to recap, per Case Shiller

1. SFBA bottomed at 117.71 in 2009
2. When RFHTC and I first debated this in 2013 when Case Shiller was @ 146.23, he said, yes wait for it to crash below the 117 level of 4 years earlier.
3. I brought it up again one year later in 2014 @ 180.19 to see if he was still in "wait and see" mode and he choose not to discuss it.

He could have mitigated his damages in 2013 @ 146.23. Yet he decided to double down on his call, and now its @ 181.5 further hurting those who relied on his decision to "wait".

16   E-man   2014 Apr 3, 1:29am     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

If history is any indication, this market will top out around 230. It's hard to believe the housing market can go up another 25%- 30% from here, but history repeats itself.

For those that have no clue what you're talking about, you're not doing the readers any favor by going around and chanting doom and gloom. Having heated debates are great because housing is a huge investment. Unfortunately, when you're trolling with housing is going to collapse around the corner with no data to back it up, you're potentially ruining someone else's life by listening to your ill advice. Remember, what goes around comes around.

17   corntrollio   2014 Apr 3, 4:31am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

E-man says

If history is any indication, this market will top out around 230. It's hard to believe the housing market can go up another 25%- 30% from here, but history repeats itself.

Saved for posterity.

CDon says

Dear 1995-2014 renters - I hate to tell you this but the 225K prices you have been waiting 19 years for are NOT going to happen.

What cities were selling for 225K in 1995 in NorCal? Just curious, I don't know which ones off-hand, myself. Even if we're to go with your strawman argument, 225K in 1995 is about 350K today per CPI.

18   EBGuy   2014 Apr 3, 6:19am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

controllio asked: What cities were selling for 225K in 1995 in NorCal?
You're making me nostalgic for 2/1 cottages in Berkeley.
Party like its 1995; see this listing.

19   RentingForHalfTheCost   2014 Apr 3, 6:39am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

rooemoore says

There would be no Patrick.net if he'd bought a house in Palo Alto in the 90s. And if he had, even after the current crash, he would have still seen an insane profit.*

But he didn't and so here we are.

* Not applicable for all neighborhoods. Your results may vary.

You can also become wealthy by working for it. Remember that?

20   jazz_music   2014 Apr 3, 3:53pm     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

RentingForHalfTheCost says

wealthy by working for it

Land of Opportunity, meritocracy, it's been a long time since I heard that pitched. I suppose it does happen, especially if you got wealth to start with. Meritocracy became passé because economic mobility fell as inequality rose. There's lots of data on that.

Economic data you all should be focusing on is to project what would have to occur for banks to come out of crisis without realizing loss from foreclosures en masse. So far, all the doom and bloomers have been citing rational data and ignoring unheard of economic tampering such as suspension of mark to market, TBTF bailouts, crony deals like B of A for Countrywide, generally accepted accounting practices, ZIRP, QE1, 2, 3.

This is really the wild west financially, only it's not just in the west, it's all over, but it really is wild.

Bears should be right but they must consider all the tampering and taxpayer indemnification of the big dogs in this casino. Plus both the hedge funds and Chinese cash buyers have backed off, there's a big real estate crisis in China and the interest rates and prices went up high enough that the ROI doesn't work so well for the smart money. There are an unusual amount of cash buyers, but they have surely come too late to benefit from the takings for a genuine cash-flow positive investment, they are not too late however to get suckered into bad investments from those brokering.

Players with lobbys to represent their concerns got seniorage at the electorate's expense. In this market the prices could go to the moon if the NAR gets their way with the loosening of money again with alt-ARMs, etc cranking like in 2004-2006. If the banks can manage to get loans completely off the books again like they were it will be shacks to the high heavens all over again.

My point is the crooks are driving this market, so look at them, not supply and demand. Accommodating legislators will get their election war chest, but they will also be remembered after holding office and they can look forward to luxurious executive gigs, lucrative book deals (written by ghost-writer most likely) and speaking tours worth millions. They might even get a heavily-guarded monument in their honor like Reagan did.

There is now a super-PAC for every GOP candidate even at the state level now. Millions come rushing in across county in the nick of time filling airwaves with attack-ads. Yesterday the Supreme court removed the cap on aggregate campaign contributions.

The Republicans also called on the court to abandon its practice over nearly 40 years of evaluating limits on contributions less skeptically than restrictions on spending.

Does anybody feel that what the country needs is more money in politics, and to have campaign money sources be anonymous? Who is being represented here?

21   E-man   2015 Jul 1, 10:46am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

corntrollio says

E-man says

If history is any indication, this market will top out around 230. It's hard to believe the housing market can go up another 25%- 30% from here, but history repeats itself.

Saved for posterity.

@corntrollio,

I was looking at the Case Shiller HPI this morning, which currently stands at 214, and I remember of your post. In just over 1 year, the HPI goes from 181 to 214. What's the likelihood of it hitting 230 do you think?

A picture is worth a thousand words.

22   APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE   2015 Jul 1, 12:08pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Deahead is back!

23   Tenpoundbass   2015 Jul 1, 1:06pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

DieBankOfAmericaPhukkingDie says

Deahead is back!

I'd like to see a deadhead on "So you think you can dance" just up there gyrating their shoulders and rolling their arms to Scarlet begonias or Franlkin's Tower from a show that sounds like it was recorded from the concession stand in the lobby of the venue.

"And cue music..."

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