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Get Ready For A Massive Interest Rate Shock Soon

By smaulgld   2013 Aug 27, 11:12pm   8,567 views   65 comments   watch (0)   quote      

From CNBC:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100990929
This commentator says rates would be 7% without QE.

#investing

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26   Dan8267   2013 Aug 28, 2:28am     ↑ like (5)   ↓ dislike   quote    

smaulgld says

From CNBC:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100990929

This commentator says rates would be 7% without QE.

Without QE, mortgage rates would be 12% and money market accounts would return 5+%. MMA, CDs, and other short-term, safe investments would attract all the capital and housing rates would plummet to less than $100/sq.ft. in the sunshine belt.

The middle class would be able to afford housing, would stop renting, would start spending their money on all the other things that people buy after buying a house, unemployment would plummet, GDP growth would skyrocket, tax revenues would increase dramatically without raising any rates, the sequester would be over, the Second Great Depression would be over, and we would have a national surplus that could be used to pay down the national debt, but Congress will instead choose to increase military spending.

27   Tenpoundbass   2013 Aug 28, 3:55am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (3)   quote    

There never was a Great recession, or what ever you kids call it now.
2008 was no different than any other time in our history, when a bunch of rich old guys went bust.
For every old rich guy that goes bust, 100 small guys get their start.

America would be rioting in the streets and demanding politician's heads had THEY not got a black man elected to chill everyone out with Town hall roadshow def comedy jams.

Kumbiya motherfuckers!

28   Dan8267   2013 Aug 28, 3:59am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

CaptainShuddup says

There never was a Great recession, or what ever you kids call it now.

I didn't say recession. I said Second Great Depression. And yes, the depression did happen and is still happening. GDP is way lower than it should be and far too many people who should be gainfully employed and productive are idle. That's a depression.

The word recession was defined by assholes to keep the public from understanding when they are in a depression. Recession was defined in such a way that it is virtually impossible for recessions to last long even if the economy is in the shits for centuries. For example, if the GDP dropped by 99% in one quarter and then grew at 0.0000001% for the next five hundred years, we would not be in a recession at any time during those five hundred years. How fucking retarded is the word recession?

29   Dan8267   2013 Aug 28, 4:00am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

CaptainShuddup says

For every old rich guy that goes bust, 100 small guys get their start.

In this depression, it's mostly the small guys who went bust. The rich are having their largest profits ever.

30   retire59   2013 Aug 28, 7:11am     ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Another reason is that during the Great Depression, which my parents lived through, is social security, food stamps, unemployment insurance, Medicaid, etc. these did not exist back then and do now, that is a big difference. My parents said you never want to see that again...they never forgot and passed it on. I have no debt, savings in a very conservative account, retirement the same, and thus will be ok....but we never lived beyond our means. But even with that, it is very separate now, class separation...healthcare is ridiculous costs etc...even with all our savings it is still tough..due to salary/income inequality and greed run wild, including the non 1%, who think and spend like they are.....IMHO...

31   David Losh   2013 Aug 29, 2:01am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

CaptainShuddup says

America would be rioting in the streets and demanding politician's heads had THEY not got a black man elected to chill everyone out

It was the Obama stand on the Iraq war that got him elected, otherwise we would be def comedy jamming with Hilary.

What I would say is that Obama should have let the economy collapse, and blame it all on Bush. He instead surrounded himself with the same people who caused the real problems to begin with.

We hit a normal in 2008, and it should have been left to continue. Instead we just inflated another set of asset, and commodity bubbles for a false sense of inflation.

Well, it's done now, so the Fed should step back, and let the chips fall where they may.

32   P N Dr Lo R   2013 Aug 29, 2:19am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

smaulgld says

This commentator says rates would be 7% without QE

Well they were 6% in 1999 when I put everything in a fixed annuity and felt like a sap because everyone else was getting so much better returns. As I was leaving the bank the man told me as an afterthought that "by the way, your annuity has a floor of 3% if interest rates ever dropped below that, but something like that will never happen." For awhile I used CD's, but when they dropped I just put everything back in the annuity which is matured but not annuitized. They advised me to just use is like a savings account, which I do. I got a letter the other day saying I can continue doing this but at age 95 I must begin making withdrawals.

33   smaulgld   2013 Aug 29, 4:37am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

David Losh says

Well, it's done now, so the Fed should step back, and let the chips fall where they may.

Too late for that now

34   REpro   2013 Aug 30, 4:06am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

CaptainShuddup says

Rates (at this time) should be 8% and in any other time in History, that would have been a good thing.

CaptainShuddup says

4% Was classic savings rate, you didn't get rich quick but it would accumulate over 20 to 30 years provided you kept adding to your nest egg.

Watch out what you wish for. 8% interest rate means inflation be 5%. 4% on saving rate means inflation be 5% or more plus you will pay interest earned income tax on a top of this. Total rip-off. NEVER EVER saving account rate pays more than inflation or equal to inflation. Nobody EVER get rich by keeping money on saving account. Just remember this.

35   Analyzer   2013 Aug 30, 4:09am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

smaulgld says

David Losh says



Well, it's done now, so the Fed should step back, and let the chips fall where they may.


Too late for that now

Backed themselves into a corner?

36   smaulgld   2013 Aug 30, 4:28am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

37   Analyzer   2013 Aug 30, 4:34am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

smaulgld says

Analyzer says



Backed themselves into a corner?


Unfortunately yes http://smaulgld.com/the-king-is-surrounded-bernankes-no-exit-dilemma/

5 years into this massive monetary infusion and this is where we are at. Just like when you own a falling stock, you need to know when to cut your losses and move on.

38   jvolstad   2013 Aug 30, 4:57am     ↑ like (5)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Bring on the 7% interest rates. I'm tired of only getting 1% on my CD's ($100K).

39   David Losh   2013 Aug 30, 7:55am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

REpro says

Watch out what you wish for. 8% interest rate means inflation be 5%. 4% on saving rate means inflation be 5% or more

That would only be if the rise in interest rates was to combat inflation. We don't have wage inflation so we are simply paying more for the speculation of others.

A rise in interest rates might cause some stall in growth to the 2% that has been projected, or we may have deflation.

Either way we need higher interest rates to get money back into the system. If we can charge more for money more money will come back into the economy.

40   REpro   2013 Aug 30, 12:43pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

David Losh says

Either way we need higher interest rates to get money back into the system. If we can charge more for money more money will come back into the economy.

That will drive inflation. Actually the opposite is true.

41   SJ   2013 Aug 31, 2:00am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Of course Bernanke and Co will pull another load of crap on us:

42   Philistine   2013 Aug 31, 2:49am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

REpro says

That will drive inflation. Actually the opposite is true.

I agree, but the funny thing is the opposite has not happened for people like me. I've had a 20% DP sitting in a shitty .95% account for the last 2 years. I am not encouraged to invest it in this frothy market, which is clearly a boys' club for the .1%. On the other side, I can't buy a house with my measly 20% shekels, either, since it's cash or shove it in the LA market.

When are these "massive" and "shocking" interest rates coming? "Soon"?
#eyeroll

43   David Losh   2013 Aug 31, 3:44am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

egads101 says

lower interest rates encourage investment, higher interest rates stifle it.

As much as I hate engaging a total, and complete troll, the facts are clear that these historically lower interest rates only stimulated speculation in assets, and commodities.

It created another sense of false inflation, and growth. The reality is that the consumer is paying higher prices for lower quality products.

Financial products have been stifled by these lower rates. Why lend money if all you get is a 3.5%, or 4% return? Why tie up your money at lower rates when you can make quick cash through speculation?

The facts are clear, and presented here on this blog daily. You can choose.

REpro says

That will drive inflation. Actually the opposite is true.

Sorry, but we are in a stage of deflation, and deleveraging. Those higher rates will only add to that pressure.

The projections of even a 2% growth seem to be a stretch, and the fear is that if the Fed does taper we will be stuck with lower growth rates.

We are in extraordinary times. There are tons of cash in the global economic system. We need to get that cash circulating into the hands of consumers rather than taking the money away from consumers, and squirrelling it away.

We need that money to get long term returns. That will only happen with higher interest rates.

44   David Losh   2013 Aug 31, 4:17am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

egads101 says

A troll is not someone who counters your idiotic positions...You can't really help it that you are stupid, but ignorance is a curable condition.

These are troll tactics. All of your comment is provocative so people will engage you.

You don't have anything to say, you are simply seeking attention.

Your understanding of economics is dismal, but you claim to be a teacher of math, and economics.

You may have taken an Econ 101 course, because that is as far as your knowledge takes you.

Have another bottle of wine Bob, chill out, ride your bike, and play with the dog. It won't get any better than that for you.

45   David Losh   2013 Aug 31, 8:40am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

You have nothing to say again, except to recover old, tired ground that is false.

Each move has made me money Bob.

This site is being eaten by a troll.

46   tatupu70   2013 Aug 31, 8:48am     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

David Losh says

You have nothing to say again, except to recover old, tired ground that is false.


Each move has made me money Bob.


This site is being eaten by a troll.

Yep, this one looks like it was a big money maker for you Dave:

"We just sold a property in Atlanta for $30K, and if we sold in 2008 it would have been $90K, 2010 $60K"

http://www.patrick.net/?p=1218026

47   David Losh   2013 Sep 2, 4:27am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

tatupu70 says

Yep, this one looks like it was a big money maker for you Dave:

I personally reinvested the money outside of Real Estate.

I'm looking at you as another person with nothing to say, so you are in good company here.

The point was, and is, that not all Real Estate markets are going up as some claim. Some Real Estate prices have declined, a lot, and that seems to get ignored by the Case Shiller followers.

Another case very much to the point is our property in Wyoming which as far as I can tell from the CMA I just got has gone down from close to $850K to $399950, if any one would ever buy it.

Now these are accumulated properties from others who have dumped them into what is called a partnership.

I want my money out of Real Estate, and those are my choices. There is much more money to be made elsewhere.

48   David Losh   2013 Sep 2, 5:21am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I sold in 2006, and 2007, and never reinvested in Real Estate.

The properties you keep screaming about are managed by others.

My choice was to sell, they chose to hold out for "better" times. Well, those better times never came, and won't.

I want my money out of Real estate because I have my money in a service business that has had 30% growth each year since 2008.

Actually my end in the service business are the web sites, and internet presence that we have developed.

That's what brings me to Patrick.net, a brilliant site, operated by a brilliant guy.

The internet Bob is where the money is.

So you do what you do, best of luck, and I'll keep making money.
Thanks

49   David Losh   2013 Sep 2, 9:49am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

egads101 says

here is another take from an exasperated contributor to seattlebubble:

Ah, more trolling I see. Yes, corndogs claims he bought a 1985 vertical grain cedar home in Gig Harbor, and has been saying it is the best investment ever.

He has no proof, kind of like you Bob, but he insists that an obsolete property in Gig Harbor which he paid $500K, that's a half a million dollars Bob, is just great. He bought it at a foreclosure auction Bob so you know it's gotta be a deal.

Oh, yeah, brand new houses across the street are $625K at today's inflated prices.

Which also reminds me. Corndogs wasn't the original poster of that property. The first person to claim it was much more open, and forth coming about the property so we had a chance to discuss it at that time.

cordogs just showed up one day, like trolls do, and started claiming the property was his. He was caught of course, and is pretty much ignored, but he has trolled that site, which is too bad.

You see Bob trolls like you just can't fathom a discussion that doesn't center around you.

50   David Losh   2013 Sep 2, 9:56am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

egads101 says

So, you set up your investments and financial decision making under other people's control?

So yes Bob, I can be a part of a trust, and still not make the decisions.

That's business Bob.

Now as far as me, my God Bob, you're a guy, from what you say, who has a jive job as a Community College professor which is kind of like a government job you can't be fired from.

You have how many rentals now Bob? Fifteen? I just skim what you say.

So now you have a million dollars in the bank, and $6K of income per month for doing nothing.

Well, Bob, if that's the case what are you doing here?

People emulate me Bob because I do what I want, when I want, and always have.

There's always more money Bob.

51   David Losh   2013 Sep 2, 10:12am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

egads101 says

THIS IS ABOUT THE WORST MARKETING VIDEO EVER!!!

and BOOM goes the troll.

This is called social media Bob.

Where's your social media Bob? Where is your internet presence?

You found me Bob, and found out about me, because I dominate the internet.

That is what it's all about.

52   Iwag   2013 Sep 2, 10:27am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

Roberto

you come on here trolling after your real life got exposed as a failed math professor, and the police came after you, and now you reinvent yourself as a full on idiot calling himself the oracle

get a life man, on your youtube videos you look like you're at least 55. why don't you act your age?

53   Iwag   2013 Sep 2, 10:33am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

no the oracle is Roberto A Ribas acting like an idiot and turning patricks forum into your personal troll playground

you're old as fuck Roberto A Ribas and very immature. just read through all of your post with your new oracle persona. you come on here trolling and pretending to be someone else. you are literally ruining this forum. if anyone should be deleted, it's you because your new account really has no other purpose than to attack and derail threads with your trolling.

on any other forum with a shred of decency you would have been banned months ago

54   smaulgld   2013 Sep 2, 10:41am     ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

As moderator of the thread I would kindly suggest that if you posted personal attacks here that you delete them. They do not add anything to the thread's topic which is whether there will be an interest rate shock.

55   smaulgld   2013 Sep 2, 10:44am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

egads101 says

as moderator, you can delete most of them! I will delete mine, out of respect to you. I enjoy discussing things with you, even though we normally disagree, you at least back up your positions with facts, research, analysis.

Thanks.

56   Iwag   2013 Sep 2, 10:46am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

David Losh says

This site is being eaten by a troll.

can someone please listen to this guy?

the past couple of weeks have made this website horrible to post on. every thread becomes a childish repeat of the previous threads full of insults and totally derailing the thread from whatever the original topic was.

patrick used to be a place to discuss topics intelligently but now with guys like Roberto coming back with alias accounts and trolling without punishment, its become worse than it has been in years

signed,

a concerned patrick.net member

57   David Losh   2013 Sep 2, 10:47am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

egads101 says

This is called the losh being a moron on multiple media and blogsites!!!

You posted it.

Welcome to the internet Bob!

I also have some live video chats some place that if you could help me locate, that would be great.

Bob, as you know I have a half dozen blogs, a couple of websites, and a business that monetizes my time on the internet.

I forgot, you added content to Trulia, or Zillow, or some other nonsense.

That doesn't help your internet presence, it only promotes those specific sites.

egads101 says

The oracle is the oracle, and nobody else.

Bob, even I can figure out that isn't true. Your time here must be the most exciting part of your life.

58   David Losh   2013 Sep 2, 10:54am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

smaulgld says

As moderator of the thread I would kindly suggest that if you posted personal attacks here that you delete them.

He'll just start again some place else.

The internet is built on controversy, and content. If I were a conspiracy theorist I would say Bob is a professional blogger.

He has made a lot of mistakes, but he is still creating controversy for you.

I'd let it stand.

It doesn't bother me, but it does highjack the thread.

You, of course are correct in your post, and Bob is here to tell you are wrong. If he can stay on the topic, I think it's an excellent debate.

59   David Losh   2013 Sep 2, 10:56am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

egads101 says

Making up a name like IWAG, and telling LIBELOUS lies is trolling.

Hmmm, Bob interesting, but why would I bother?

You certainly would, and as a Community College professor you have access to all kinds of IP addresses, both in your State, and out of State.

Welcome to the internet Bob. When will get tired of being caught?

60   David Losh   2013 Sep 2, 11:01am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

smaulgld says

They do not add anything to the thread's topic which is whether there will be an interest rate shock.

We have a property for sale that has lost, from what the Real Estate agent tells me, $50K in sales price since May.

$50K from $725K is a little less than 10%, since May, but the last offer we got was for only $620K.

That is a lot of loss in pricing for a great location, in city, since May.

61   David Losh   2013 Sep 2, 11:03am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

egads101 says

You blog all day, while your wife cleans toilets to make you money. How proud, such a success.

Now Bob, we have gone over this time, and time, and time again.

We have employees, Bob. We own a business.

Tell us all again about yourself, it never gets old.

62   iwog   2013 Sep 2, 11:14am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

Iwag says

patrick used to be a place to discuss topics intelligently but now with guys like Roberto coming back with alias accounts and trolling without punishment, its become worse than it has been in years

Patrick, I know you have a non-intervention policy, however this is getting absurd.

The true trolls of the board have displaced even the unreasonable nutjobs like Shrek.

Can we have a round of bannings please?

63   smaulgld   2013 Sep 2, 11:18am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

David Losh says

That is a lot of loss in pricing for a great location, in city, since May.

And May was when the Fed started its taper talk

64   David Losh   2013 Sep 2, 12:40pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

smaulgld says

And May was when the Fed started its taper talk

I have partners. In February I had to send my guys in to prepare the property for sale, because the dinosaur Real Estate agent wanted to wait until May. She also stopped our work because she thought we could sell where is as is, what a moron.

That cost us big time.

The second thing to come up was that the partners wanted to wait until next year. I pointed out that Bernanke will be gone next year, and that waiting would cost us more.

Well, in the mean time we just had another Market Analysis done on our Wyoming property, and it is half the price of what we could have gotten if we sold in 2006, or even 2010, from what the other Real Estate agent is saying.

Real Estate outside of the Case Shiller Index is pretty dismal. Even with the exuberance not all markets were doing well, now it's starting to show some wear.

65   SJ   2013 Sep 3, 2:10am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

So where is iwog the golden turkey posing now as a white crane at?

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