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The stock market is not going to crash and will soon make new highs

By iwog   2014 Jul 21, 3:51pm   2 links   31,379 views   154 comments   watch (0)   quote      

The board silliness is getting out of hand. If anyone is following Smaulgld's prediction and shorting the stock market, please post it here. I'm 150% long myself and have been for years.

#investing

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115   indigenous   2014 Aug 6, 12:56am     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

errc says

What kind of lazy asses buy index funds?

Warren Buffet recommends it... But I want to hear the advise on how to get bailed out on your mistakes by the government, that is his real secret to success...

116   tatupu70   2014 Aug 6, 1:22am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

errc says

What kind of lazy asses buy index funds?

Lazy asses who understand that while you might get lucky over short periods, over long periods you won't beat the market. The vast majority of professionals don't beat the market--you think you can?

117   errc   2014 Aug 6, 1:58am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

tatupu70 says

errc says

What kind of lazy asses buy index funds?

Lazy asses who understand that while you might get lucky over short periods, over long periods you won't beat the market. The vast majority of professionals don't beat the market--you think you can?

Of course I do, why else would I give it a go?

What the hell is a stock market professional, lol

118   Analyzer   2014 Aug 6, 2:16am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Call it Crazy says

Had I put that down payment money in a DOW index fund the beginning of this
year, where would I be?

If you bought a house at the beginning of this year and sold it today where would you be?

119   Analyzer   2014 Aug 6, 3:20am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Call it Crazy says

Analyzer says



Call it Crazy says



Had I put that down payment money in a DOW index fund the beginning of this

year, where would I be?


Analyzer says



If you bought a house at the beginning of this year and sold it today where would you be?


Had I put the down payment in a DOW index fund at the date of this OP above, where would it be? Go run that chart.

Hey to each their own, I really don't care what other people choose to do. For me being in the market the last five years has proven to be a much easier and lucrative investment than housing. If your investment horizon is only 6 months, good luck.

120   jkaldi1   2014 Aug 6, 3:21am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Call it Crazy says

Had I put the down payment in a DOW index fund at the date of this OP above, where would it be? Go run that chart.

we will know that in 2 years.

121   tatupu70   2014 Aug 6, 3:23am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

errc says

What the hell is a stock market professional, lol

lol is correct. Ever heard of a mutual fund?

122   darlag   2014 Aug 7, 2:27am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Is a major trend change underway? So far, this negative outlook is proving correct. Whether the markets can rebound to new highs is still in question.

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/dow-jones-industrial-averageelliott-wave-update-for-week-ending-812014/

123   jkaldi1   2014 Aug 7, 12:49pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

The crash will happen when dow hits 32K.

124   jkaldi1   2014 Aug 13, 3:29am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

time to bump up the thread for few months

125   jkaldi1   2014 Aug 13, 6:29am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Call it Crazy says

jkaldi1 says

time to bump up the thread for few months

Why, the markets are still down from date of the OP?

wait for one more month.

126   Analyzer   2014 Aug 13, 7:55am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Call it Crazy says

jkaldi1 says



time to bump up the thread for few months


Why, the markets are still down from date of the OP?

You are analyzing minor speed bumps in the road rather than where the road is actually going.

127   Analyzer   2014 Aug 13, 8:21am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Call it Crazy says

Analyzer says



Call it Crazy says



jkaldi1 says



time to bump up the thread for few months


Why, the markets are still down from date of the OP?



You are analyzing minor speed bumps in the road rather than where the road is actually going.


OK, if you say so. Was this one of those "speed bumps"? Just wondering?
*

As I said before, what better place would there have been to have invested in the last 5 years than the stock market. Stock market has been a proven winner over the long haul without a doubt.
As the title of this thread states the stock market is not going to crash, why? Because the powers to be won't let it..............

128   Analyzer   2014 Aug 13, 8:31am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Capitalism collapses if the market does not ultimately keep rising. BTW that buying opportunity in 2009 was awesome.

129   Analyzer   2014 Aug 13, 8:59am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Call it Crazy says

Analyzer says



Capitalism collapses if the market does not ultimately keep rising.


What's wrong with this picture?
*

*

Nothing, I see opportunity.

130   Bellingham Bill   2014 Aug 13, 1:04pm     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

hmm

131   iwog   2014 Aug 14, 5:27am     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

Call it Crazy says

OK, if you say so. Was this one of those "speed bumps"? Just wondering?

Looks like your absolute desperation to prove me wrong on something is going to make you look stupid again.

Par.

132   Analyzer   2014 Aug 15, 1:56am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

CITI: The Economy Has Entered Its Scary 'Phase 3' Where Bubbles Form Prior To A Crash

133   Analyzer   2014 Aug 15, 3:38am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Call it Crazy says

Analyzer says



CITI: The Economy Has Entered Its Scary 'Phase 3' Where Bubbles Form Prior To A Crash


Nice!! A buying opportunity!

That is what I and others have been trying to say............don't fight the wave, ride the wave. Just know when to get off.

134   Analyzer   2014 Aug 19, 6:39am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Is it the only objective of the Fed at this point to sustain the bull market rally??

135   iwog   2014 Aug 19, 7:01am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

The fed has no purpose and is not sustaining this rally.

136   Analyzer   2014 Aug 19, 7:13am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

The fed has no purpose and is not sustaining this rally.

Previously you told us that they are providing pshycological stimulus..............The stock market is based a lot on perception, right?

137   iwog   2014 Aug 19, 9:55am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

Analyzer says

Previously you told us that they are providing pshycological stimulus..............The stock market is based a lot on perception, right?

Yup I said the fed is mostly a placebo however I'm beginning to wonder in which direction it influences people.

When we have growth and an up stock market, people say "It's only the fed, don't believe it". However when tapering is finished and ZIRP is revoked, then people will say "holy crap! Things are great after all, lets do a bubble!".

I suppose we'll see next year.

138   tr6   2014 Aug 19, 10:01am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

However when tapering is finished and ZIRP is revoked, then people will say "holy crap! Things are great after all, lets do a bubble!".

Tapering still has a way to go, and after that they reinvesting the balance sheet instead of letting it run off. We are not even close to where we were in 2004.

139   Bellingham Bill   2014 Aug 19, 1:14pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

tr6 says

Tapering still has a way to go

140   TwoScoopsMcGee   2014 Aug 20, 3:37am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Any opinions on the P/E Ratios?

141   SFace   2014 Aug 20, 4:36am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

PE ratios ignores the balance sheet or book value.

PE ratios can be impacted by outside factors, what are the alternatives? If 10 year fed bonds are yielding 2.4%, then damn, you are forced to buy equity which raise the ratio everything else being equal.

and lastly, PE is based on GAAP concepts. It has flaws. The major flaws are things like impairement and writedowns (vs. not) that make looking at a PE ratio stupid. For example, BBRY sold Z10 phones at launch and made a profit in Q1 I think, in Q and Q3, a 3B dollar+ writedown smacked them to extraordinary loss. I'll throw PE ratio out the window and look at it more from totality.

142   Analyzer   2014 Aug 20, 4:41am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

SFace says

PE ratios can be impacted by outside factors

And stock buybacks. Sometimes PE matters and sometimes not. What is Tesla's PE now?

143   jkaldi1   2014 Aug 21, 1:44am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Gold getting hammered. I guess there will be another leg down before end of the year.

144   darlag   2014 Aug 21, 8:20am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

jkaldi1 says

Gold getting hammered. I guess there will be another leg down before end of the year.

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/gold-elliott-wave-update-for-july-2014/

145   darlag   2014 Aug 21, 8:29am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

darlag says

Is a major trend change underway? So far, this negative outlook is proving correct. Whether the markets can rebound to new highs is still in question.

No more question. Should be the last leg up though.

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/sp-500-indexinterim-elliott-wave-update-for-week-ending-8222014/

146   iwog   2014 Aug 25, 7:32am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

Told you so.

Anyone else want to put up a "THE STOCK MARKET IS ABOUT TO CRASH!!!" thread?

I'm the first to admit that I'm not always right, but I'm going to say right now that people following Smaulgld's investment advice are going to lose money.

Call it Crazy says

Somebody told me we were going to have a Bull run in stocks this year. I guess it won't be in the first 7 months? Maybe the last 5 months?

Good thing I didn't use that advice yet!

Better luck next time.

147   myob   2014 Aug 25, 7:45am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I'm still bearish on the stock market, because our economic fundamentals do not support it. I think we're in a situation like in 2000 where everyone is trying to get out of cash into ... anything. I can't time this, so I'm trying to maintain a number of short positions that I think will do well in a downturn, while using the companies which benefit from loose monetary policy (banks, tech) to keep my shorts from dragging me down. When the market starts to turn, I'll close all the long positions.

Simply investing S&P500 would have done better than I have the last few months, however, like I said, I can't time this.

148   rooemoore   2014 Aug 25, 7:54am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Well it didn't crash. Maybe the new highs are next?

149   iwog   2014 Aug 25, 8:32am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

Call it Crazy says

That doesn't look like a "high" to me, it just gained back what it lost since you made this thread...

The S&P made a new record high, however it's not really important.

What is really important is that those who participated in the "CRASH CRASH CRASH" circle jerk, most especially you Call it Crazy, now look like a bathtub full of ignorant clowns.

150   iwog   2014 Aug 25, 8:42am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

darlag says

Is a major trend change underway? So far, this negative outlook is proving correct. Whether the markets can rebound to new highs is still in question.

I just have one question for you. When the year is over, and we're sitting at near or record highs, are you going to re-evaluate all this elliot wave nonsense considering the market will have proven your forecasts wrong?

If I'm wrong and we close out the year with a loss, I'm going to be forced to re-evaluate all sorts of assumptions. I just wonder if anyone else will.

151   Rew   2014 Aug 25, 8:54am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

I just wonder if anyone else will.

iWog, you sound like one of dem dere flippy floppers. You should just know because you know. Because your guts says it is true. Changing your mind, when confronted with new data, is for the weak and unsure. (wink)

152   jkaldi1   2014 Aug 25, 9:45am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

that people following Smaulgld's investment advice are going to lose money.

The Very fact that Smaulgld believes long term in gold immediately disqualifies him as a good investor.

wait for another 2 months and all these crash mongers will hide under a rock.

153   iwog   2014 Aug 26, 1:11am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

Call it Crazy says

That doesn't look like a "high" to me, it just gained back what it lost since you made this thread...

How about now?

154   Bellingham Bill   2014 Aug 26, 6:25am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Saving for posterity, like GLD at $2000

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