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I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash

By iwog   2014 Aug 28, 2:50am   46 links   348,570 views   1346 comments   watch (10)   quote      

I'll be doing this today. I've determined that the odds of a 20-25% correction in the stock market is too high right now and prefer to watch from the sidelines until either the market corrects or it becomes obvious that I screwed up.

I am not a trader and I've held most of these positions for 3-5 years. I am not an expert and you should not copy what I'm doing unless you blame someone else if this turns out wrong.

My long term outlook remains the same and I expect the market to make new all time highs in 2015. This is a short term gamble.

I am not going short but may buy some puts if I see prices I like.

#investing

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1307   iwog   Mar 4, 5:06am     ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

curious2 says

Second, theories must yield to data. You seem to post opposite predictions, then claim credit for whichever turned out to be right. Others call you "galactically wrong." I try always to give people an opportunity to explain before judging their credibility.

All you proved is that I didn't make an opposite prediction. Your backhanded insult blew up in your face.

Absolutely unfuckingbelievably you don't admit you screwed up and then you REPEAT THE ACCUSATION that I make opposite predictions!

You can't make this stuff up folks.

1308   iwog   Mar 4, 5:08am     ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

curious2 says

You seem to post opposite predictions,

Umm......did you just link a thread I didn't participate in to make a point about opposite predictions??

Wow, who hurt you?

1309   SubOink   Mar 26, 9:15am     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

You seem to post opposite predictions,

Nobody knows the future. Predictions should be educated guesses.

Iwog's educated guesses have been better then most "analysts" on CNBC. The "predicted" correction came last year but wasn't quite as steep as he thought but investing in NAC and later in ARLP has not left anyone out of a return on your money. It's easy to look in hindsight. If we all just put 100% of our money in Apple 10 years ago, you could retire now. And if you win the lottery tomorrow, you can quit your day job.

Nobody is right 100% of the time.

1310   newbie917   Mar 29, 8:34am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Iwog (and others),

Any investing tips to play this range-bound (manipulated) market ? Do you see a correction coming - is it time to short the indices through ETFs?

Thanks in advance.

Newbie

1311   zzyzzx   Mar 29, 8:36am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

newbie917 says

Any investing tips to play this range-bound (manipulated) market ?

Buy low, and sell high. Works every time!!!

1312   newbie917   Mar 29, 8:45am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

zzyzzx - thanks. I was looking for something a little more specific (like iWog's awesome recommendation of ARLP).

1313   SubOink   Mar 29, 10:01am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Apple

1314   SubOink   Mar 29, 10:01am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

lol

1315   iwog   Mar 29, 12:13pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

1316   SubOink   Mar 29, 12:35pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

Here's some porn

hahahaha

1317   AdamCarollaFan   Apr 5, 11:54am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

interesting. i was gonna liquidate a large CD later this month and dollar-cost average it into my vanguard index funds

1318   someone else   Apr 5, 12:58pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I own a Vanguard index fund and it does seem to track the S&P 500 pretty well, though not exactly:

1319   SubOink   Apr 5, 8:39pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

@Iwog - So if the Fed unloads Trillions of Bonds wouldn't that hurt our precious NAC?

1320   BlueSardine   Apr 5, 8:53pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Are you going to keep it under your pillow?
Most banks have a 5 dollar minimum...

iwog says

I'm liquidating all my stocks and going to cash  

1321   iwog   Apr 5, 9:42pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

SubOink says

@Iwog - So if the Fed unloads Trillions of Bonds wouldn't that hurt our precious NAC?

Nope. They will sell gradually into bond market strength so at most they might moderate the swings a little bit.

Right now the long bond price has the expectation of deficit spending built in. If Republicans get bogged down and fail on the tax cuts or 10% military increase or drastically cut taxes or we get a recession, the price will jump back up again. At a yield nearly 6%, NAC is priced too low so it can't stay there for much longer and the 10-year is repeatedly failing to hold above 2.5%.

Now the moment Republicans announce a tax cut that will generate $1 trillion per year more bond sales, then I'm out.

1322   curious2   Apr 6, 12:00am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

iwog says

curious2 says

You seem to post opposite predictions,

Umm......did you just link a thread I didn't participate in to make a point about opposite predictions??

No, you did participate in that thread, and I would never fake a link. Though the specific comment I linked has since been deleted, at least 14 of your other comments in the thread remain there. So, if you want to cover up all your duck footprints, you'll need to delete some more.

iwog says

HEY YOU says

How many Americans are on some form of govt. assistance?


Of course the economic theology definition of recession & depression don't take into account,REALITY.

Reality is that government assistance is the only thing keeping us on the rails right now.

iwog says

LOL......you just demonstrated why Free-market Austrian Ayn Rand economics is eventually going to turn us into a 3rd world country.

Why do you think investment is at its lowest level while simultaneously the amount of raw cash stashed in short term bonds is at a record high? Why do you think there's more money available for investment than ever before while there is less investment than ever before?

The reason is crystal clear. The aristocracy has all the money. Unless some of that money is liberated back to consumers via debt, taxes, or death, the trend will continue until ultimately the economy stops growing and crashes.

1323   iwog   Apr 6, 7:36am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

curious2 says

Though the specific comment I linked has since been deleted

Nonsense. I don't delete comments. So basically I made a radical prediction of some kind and no one quoted it? No one responded to it?? Really???

curious2 says

You seem to post opposite predictions,

Are you EVER, and I do mean EVER going to post what you are calling opposite predictions? You can't simply lift two paragraphs of mine and say "See? SEE?? Opposite predictions!!!" without explaining what in the bloody hell you are talking about.

Now because I don't run away from my own points like some people, I'll even analyze what you linked. The first point is a simple acknowledgement that the government safety net keeps people from being deleted from the economy. Through welfare programs, Social Security, food stamps, and unemployment, people can keep demand up and there's no positive feedback loop of dropping demand and layoffs.

The second point details the source of funding for what I just described which is the rich loaning money back to the poor via the government issuance of bonds. Not only do the two points not contradict, they actually support each other.

Now your turn. (LOL....just kidding)

1324   SubOink   Apr 6, 9:22am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

Now the moment Republicans announce a tax cut that will generate $1 trillion per year more bond sales, then I'm out.

Got it! Thanks for the pointer!

1325   curious2   Apr 8, 7:14pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

iwog says

Are you EVER, and I do mean EVER going to post what you are calling opposite predictions?

I did, but then the comment that I linked got deleted.

iwog says

I'll even analyze what you linked.

Your analysis is misplaced. You claimed (falsely) not to have participated in the thread. I linked 14 comments from you in that thread, and even copied two of them in toto so you could not delete them. Instead of admitting you were wrong or lying, you changed the subject.

1326   SubOink   Apr 12, 9:53am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

NAC 14.60 ...wonder if 14.70 and then back down to 13.80 is on the menu. What do you think @Iwog?

1327   junkmail   Apr 12, 11:03am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

I think... Iwog is liquidating all his stocks and going to cash.

Like he said so many times before.

1328   SubOink   Apr 12, 12:44pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

junkmail says

I think... Iwog is liquidating all his stocks and going to cash.

Like he said so many times before.

ok Troll

1329   iwog   Apr 12, 1:30pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

SubOink says

NAC 14.60 ...wonder if 14.70 and then back down to 13.80 is on the menu. What do you think @Iwog?

I'm pretty sure it's not going back below 14. I think the bond market has swallowed the worst case nightmare scenario and now all that's left is buyers. Also the "freedom" caucus seems pretty determined to break the congressional habit of ridiculous spending increases while Republicans run the shop.

The 10-year just doesn't seem interested in holding up the higher interest rate narrative. I will say that without a sharp increase in deficit spending, the 10-year is WAY undervalued. I mean crazy levels of undervalued. Should we get Obama levels of government spending from now on, which means practically nothing, the 10-year will zoom below 1.5% and probably even lower.

So NAC is big upside potential and very little downside potential and it gives you money every month. Can't beat that.

ARLP is still stuck in its channel and I'm not worried. A few new coal electrical plants firing back up will break it out. Even if coal continues to decline however, ARLP is still best of breed and will still be profitable.

1330   SubOink   Apr 12, 4:17pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Right - Thanks!

1331   Heraclitusstudent   Apr 12, 4:27pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

the 10-year is WAY undervalued. I mean crazy levels of undervalued.

I'd like to have the same clarity as Iwog, but I find it difficult.
At some point the fed need to get rid of some of those treasuries. China will sell treasuries. Saudis will sell treasuries (it's not like they can support themselves with oil).
But yes, there is that recession coming, eventually. Maybe in 1 year, maybe 3. So?

1332   Ironworker   Apr 12, 4:54pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

No one knows what's going to happen. Iwog included.

As long as we have healthy pull back like this one for example, I think we are going higher. Of course what do I know. My guess for recession would be few years down the road.

There's money to be made in stock market in mean time.

"Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves". - peter lynch

I believe same applies to recessions.

If you claim to know what's going to happen next, nobody should listen to you.

1333   iwog   Apr 12, 5:25pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Ironworker says

No one knows what's going to happen. Iwog included.

I'm not a guru. I don't tell people how to invest. All I've done and all I continue to do is tell people what I am putting money into ahead of time and then let the chips fall where they may.

1334   Rew   Apr 12, 6:02pm     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Ironworker says

"Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves". - peter lynch

Actually, if by "lost" you mean didn't experience the market gain, that's more correct. You don't lose the money you take off the table. You just don't win the next bets, if they play out.

When you really lose, is when the correction occurs, with your money exposed to it.

I'll never weep for my money not growing as fast in a venture/position I perceive as too risky.

1335   Ironworker   Apr 12, 6:13pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Rew:

"When you really lose, is when the correction occurs, with your money exposed to it."

There were many corrections since 2009, that were eventually replaced with new highs. Corrections are naturally occurring and the people who make real money in stocks are not trying to time them. They pay less in taxes, stare at screens less and enjoy life more. Correction timers are real success in investing game.

1336   tr6   Apr 12, 10:16pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Heraclitusstudent says

At some point the fed need to get rid of some of those treasurie

They really don't. I suspect the balance sheet will not shrink for a long time. As far as NAC, if it gets back to 15.50 range, I will sell my whole position. Pension crisis will come to California. You cannot pay retired firefighters 200K a year. The math just does not work.

1337   SubOink   Apr 13, 10:37am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Ironworker says

No one knows what's going to happen. Iwog included.

and no-one should expect anyone to know what's going to happen. It's all about sharing educated guesses.

1338   CL   Apr 13, 11:31am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

Wow, who hurt you?

Obamacare did it. :)

1339   Bellingham Bill   Apr 14, 10:56pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Ironworker says

Corrections are naturally occurring and the people who make real money in stocks are not trying to time them. They pay less in taxes, stare at screens less and enjoy life more. Correction timers are real success in investing game.

I was just back-testing a simple moving-average market timing strategy vs buy and hold:

This is adding $1000/mo in cash to your position every month, since 1980.

Blue is # of S&P 500 Index shares via Buy & Hold,
Red # shares held by simple market timing of getting out when there's a SMA cross of death and getting back in when the price recovers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average_crossover

Shows this worked great in the 2002 and 2008 crashes, but more recently it's just chopping too much

1340   someone else   Apr 15, 9:54am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Bellingham Bill says

I was just back-testing a simple moving-average market timing strategy vs buy and hold:

@"Bellingham Bill" what software did you use for that test and graph?

1341   Bellingham Bill   Apr 15, 11:33am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I got the S&P 500 historical data from yahoo finance and did the calculations in excel 2008 on my hackintosh . . .

1342   FP   Apr 15, 11:56am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Bellingham Bill says

did the calculations in excel

Masochist

1343   someone else   Apr 15, 7:49pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I don't get why both graphs show a logarithmic rather than exponential increase.

If you're adding $1K/mo, it should at the very least be a linear increase.

1344   Bellingham Bill   Apr 15, 8:36pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

S & P index is going up so each $1000 is buying fewer and fewer shares

Is the total value of the shares in the two strategies -- buy and hold is a 4.5X return while the SMA cross signal is 7.8X

1345   someone else   Apr 15, 8:40pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

What is the y-axis in your original graph? Dollars or shares?

1346   Bellingham Bill   Apr 15, 10:23pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

shares of the S&P 500 index fund

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