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ARLP blows away earnings, makes iwog gloriously rich

By iwog   2016 Jul 26, 7:17am   17 links   25,875 views   220 comments   watch (4)   quote      


#investing

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181   errc   714/723 = 98% civil   Jun 15, 7:48pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

This could be a nice setup if the timing is right. Raise the dividend after a nice run up and we could get a nice bump

182   SubOink   72/72 = 100% civil   Jun 16, 10:03am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

sitting at the march low right now...who is buying more? :)

183   Patrick   2216/2216 = 100% civil   Jun 16, 10:55am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

It is kind of tempting to buy more.

184   iwog   2214/2216 = 99% civil   Jun 16, 10:58am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Not sure why the selloff. Doesn't seem to be any bad news. Maybe a large holder divesting.

185   SubOink   72/72 = 100% civil   Jun 16, 12:54pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Ouch! Mass exodus ...

186   SubOink   72/72 = 100% civil   Jun 16, 12:56pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Is the whole sector down today or just ARLP?

187   SubOink   72/72 = 100% civil   Jun 16, 1:01pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

If it wasn't for the fact that it broke 21 / 20.25 March low - I'd buy more

188   iwog   2214/2216 = 99% civil   Jun 16, 2:58pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

PE of 4.6, the company raised guidance and said it has a bright future, lowest debt load in the industry, dividend of 9% which will likely rise, the company is considered the gold standard in the industry, and coal experts are increasing:

http://dailycaller.com/2017/04/14/mining-ceo-expects-a-record-year-for-coal-exports/

No such thing as a sure bet but this is a cash machine and I'm happily holding.

189   SubOink   72/72 = 100% civil   Jun 16, 3:07pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

yeah - this selloff is hard to understand.

190   Bellingham Bill   119/119 = 100% civil   Jun 16, 4:53pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

I'm no expert and don't have access to the bid/ask stack at the close but it looks like a seller came in at 3:50 with say 50,000 shares and the market maker took the bid under $20, which triggered standing stop-losses into the close.

I can't day-trade anymore so just got stopped-loss out of my AAPL -- l bought at $110 sold at $143; I've made worse trades.

The BAC-L has been a fucking monster since I bought a month ago:

Gotta like getting 6% yield on a blue-chip like BAC. The main downside is I guess the appreciation is capped at $1300, since that's what these preferred shares will liquidate into (20 shares of common at ~$65 each).

the upside is that as long as the common stays above $0 and under $65, it's a bond basically. Back Jan-Feb 2009 BAC-L was trading at $300 . . .

191   BayArea   417/417 = 100% civil   Jun 16, 5:43pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

OUCH! -10.34% today.

Buy more or run for the hills?

I've owned for nearly a year and back where I started as of today.

192   just_passing_through   62/62 = 100% civil   Jun 16, 9:13pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

PE of 4.6, the company raised guidance and said it has a bright future, lowest debt load in the industry, dividend of 9%

I'm thinking this might be my entry point. For a longish hold... I've been looking at it off and on every since you mentioned it but if I recall it required some special tax treatment that one wouldn't find in turbo tax - and required a roth ira to pay taxes on? I'm probably just going to throw some dough in from a non-retirement account. Way too much sitting on the sidelines.

193   curious2   1127/1127 = 100% civil   Jun 16, 9:22pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

just_passing_through says

I've been looking at it off and on every since you mentioned it....

I looked too, but coal has a number of problems. "Where your treasure is, there your heart will be also." I prefer not to invest in companies whose profits depend so heavily on abusing workers and the environment. Even setting aside the question of climate change, look at the rivers poisoned with coal ash and acid rain. Big institutions divesting might make coal stocks comparatively cheap based on dividend yield, but natural gas, solar, and wind are encroaching on the core utility markets for coal. It's like investing in a tobacco index: everybody wants their investments to go up, but do you really want to put yourself in a position where you hope more people smoke, just to boost your investment?

194   just_passing_through   62/62 = 100% civil   Jun 17, 10:22am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I draw the line at smokes and booze, coal maybe not. In this case the line might move because my taxes have already been a bit complex the past several years as it is. I found the comments in another thread:

iwog says

... Still considering ...

195   SubOink   72/72 = 100% civil   Jun 17, 7:45pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I don't quite get the tax complication ? Do you do your own taxes?

196   just_passing_through   62/62 = 100% civil   Jun 17, 9:11pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Yes.

Own some rental houses out of state, have a few forms of company stock from a former company (all sold completely this year finally), some stuff I play around in like lending club, 401K's I'm rolling over into a Roth IRA bit by bit and that's about it. Single no kids. Totally out of the stock market. Two years ago I was down to 20% from 80% (average since 2007). I've been doing some 1099 contracting lately which is something I've never done and the paperwork is a pain. Soon to start back as a W2 employee at the 3rd company I'll work for this year - laid off in March.

Not a super big deal for someone who has the time for it but I'm pretty busy and am always paranoid I'll file incorrectly. I've always done my own taxes. Sort of a control freak in that way I guess.

I also use turbo tax which sucks. It doesn't seem smart enough to guess what your situation might be in not too very atypical cases of ISO, ESPP or RSU. Makes it hard or at least less intuitive as it might be to consolidate what you get from your employer vs. the options it serves up. A mathematician software QA person I worked with found some bugs in it back in 2006 or 2007.

New investment avenues are fun to learn though and I want to get better (and wealthier), so in a way that's also a part of the appeal of ARLP. I'd never heard of limited partnerships. The comment about the dividends being depreciated is interesting - then when you sell the stock (if up) you pay more equity but at cap-gains rate rather than income rate. I believe Iwog said it's similar to when you sell a house you've depreciated over a period of years.

I've never sold a house so far and have just been a purchaser. Does anyone know if its true that when you sell a house the profits are not capital gains; they are regular income? A mix of both? Depends on whether or not you're an investor vs. an owner? I'm asking because someone recently told me it's regular income tax which I thought was surprising.

197   BayArea   417/417 = 100% civil   Jun 18, 7:00am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

just_passing_through says

I've never sold a house so far and have just been a purchaser. Does anyone know if its true that when you sell a house the profits are not capital gains; they are regular income? A mix of both?

If it's your primary residence, you pay no taxes on capital gains up to $250,000 if single and $500,000 if married.

If it's a rental, you pay capital gains taxes on every dollar of profit (minus carried over loses, sales related costs, etc)

198   Bellingham Bill   119/119 = 100% civil   Jun 18, 3:08pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

SubOink says

I don't quite get the tax complication ? Do you do your own taxes?

MLPs are odd beasts in that you become a part business owner wrt income etc.

"The K-1s I receive for holdings in my IRA I typically file. It's a round file on the floor next to my desk that Waste Management conveniently picks up each week. Not much hassle there. Should I exceed the $1,000 UBTI limit in a single IRA account (unlikely), and my broker fails to send me the appropriate 990-T form (not really sure how likely since it's never happened), and I get audited (has also never happened), and the auditor notices the lack of a necessary 990-T form reporting UBTI (hard to notice what is not there, but I guess that's what they get paid for), if all those happen together, I guess I will just have to pay the fine."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/882601-dont-be-afraid-to-put-mlps-in-your-ira

199   SubOink   72/72 = 100% civil   Jun 19, 9:08am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

just_passing_through says

I've always done my own taxes. Sort of a control freak in that way I guess.

I get it - my version is that I do my own bookkeeping with QB's for personal and Corp. But then I send that file off to the accountant who handles the rest and together we discuss financial moves forward. Accountant sends me back the finished return for review and done. I can highly recommend using a pro for this as it can be crucial. That is if you have somebody good.

200   just_passing_through   62/62 = 100% civil   Jun 19, 8:20pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I think that's very good advice. I should probably pony up for some pro-tips. I'm not a kid anymore and can afford it....

201   SubOink   72/72 = 100% civil   Jun 21, 8:20am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

I wonder when the 4% down days will stop...

Need a dividend hike announcement soon...

202   SubOink   72/72 = 100% civil   Jun 21, 1:20pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

today was brutal for our little coal miner...anyone know what's going on? I saw NO news

203   curious2   1127/1127 = 100% civil   Jun 21, 1:43pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

SubOink says

anyone know what's going on?

It's up 50% in less than two years since iwog recommended it on 2015.12.22, so I defer to him: he speculated recently that large institutional selling might be depressing recent prices, and that seems a likely explanation.

I can only add three things.
1) institutions including universities are divesting from coal, mainly due to AGW, which has made news again lately;
2) coal faces growing competition from solar and natural gas, both of which have a lot of good news lately;
3) some automated trading algorithms scan news headlines for key words and decide to buy or sell in response, so recent news may have driven the algos.

Credit where it's due, iwog does post trades (I've now posted a thread to follow iwog's trades & recommendations) and this trade has done very well since he posted it. Also, unlike many people, he does not let his financial interest in a trade determine his political opinions about it: he warns repeatedly about AGW, even though that's bad for coal.

204   just_passing_through   62/62 = 100% civil   Jun 22, 9:41pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

SubOink says

today was brutal for our little coal miner...anyone know what's going on? I saw NO news

Unusual trading day. Very flat up until close to close. Buying back?

205   SFace   25/25 = 100% civil   Jun 26, 11:15pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Not a big fan of companies with tremendous capex needs. Lp for a business is about the worst way to acquire capital, so I never understood the draw of being in one long term.

If you are a legit business, why would that business make any joe and Sam a partner?

You have to catch the cycle.

206   SubOink   72/72 = 100% civil   Jun 30, 11:58am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

hoping for good earnings...

207   Bellingham Bill   119/119 = 100% civil   Jul 5, 7:06pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Two weeks ago we had some high volume sellers (open, close, volume):

Jun 16, 2017 21.85 --> 19.50 1,263,100
Jun 19, 2017 19.90 --> 20.05 566,200
Jun 20, 2017 20.00 --> 19.50 367,900
Jun 21, 2017 19.40 --> 18.20 753,200

Stabilized at ~19.50 now . . . looks like the market is waiting for news like everyone else . . .

208   just_passing_through   62/62 = 100% civil   Jul 5, 8:51pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Still sitting on my hands with this one. Buying a condo in Maui instead has kept me busy in the short run.

209   BayArea   417/417 = 100% civil   Jul 6, 6:30am  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Ugh the stock price is lower today than a year ago when IWOG became gloriously rich lol

210   theoakman   60/60 = 100% civil   Jul 7, 9:23am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

I dropped another $2k, 9% is double my next best yield.

211   errc   714/723 = 98% civil   Jul 11, 9:55am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

Would be a great time to announce the dividend is being raised.

When would they usually do this, given that they mentioned it after the last distribution?

212   iwog   2214/2216 = 99% civil   Jul 11, 10:03am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

If they do it this quarter, the announcement will come near the end of July.

213   errc   714/723 = 98% civil   Jul 11, 12:19pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

This is a hell of a rise on some seriously mild volume.

214   Patrick   2216/2216 = 100% civil   Jul 11, 12:26pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Yes, up 5% today.

215   theoakman   60/60 = 100% civil   Jul 11, 1:07pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I just don't know how people don't dive in with a 9% yield that is poised to increase.

216   Patrick   2216/2216 = 100% civil   Jul 11, 1:08pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

It's too generous. Probably freaks them out.

"Why you want to give me so much money?!"

217   theoakman   60/60 = 100% civil   Jul 11, 3:22pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I guess the concept of getting money from a business is foreign to too many people these days.

218   Bellingham Bill   119/119 = 100% civil   Jul 11, 5:37pm  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/valuetrap.asp

Not that I think this is what's going on, I didn't sell my 200 shares last month when it was going down.

When big fish were getting out either they had inside information on upcoming not-good news, or they just wanted out of a stock that wasn't going to pop any more, and/or wanted out of the carbon-heavy sector altogether.

Yahoo Finance board on ARLP said Trump's appointed ambassador to Canada is the CEO's wife, so there's that . . .

219   Patrick   2216/2216 = 100% civil   Jul 11, 5:42pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

220   theoakman   60/60 = 100% civil   Jul 11, 6:13pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

pulling out never even occurred to me with this dividend. I'm up 50% on my initial purchase and up 7% on what I bought on Friday. I'm content to collect that dividend for the next two years.

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