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2016 Election: Post Mortem

By iwog   2016 Nov 9, 11:01am   11 links   15,221 views   238 comments   watch (3)   quote      

First I'll assure everyone that I am not suicidal, am not on a walkabout, am not moving to another country, (yet) and I am not even all that upset about the result. I said repeatedly before the election that I could not vote for Hillary Clinton and did not vote for her, although I made it clear that I thought Donald Trump was a ridiculous alternative and would never vote for him either. This thread: https://www.patrick.net/?p=1296251

I was clearly wrong about the result because I was relying on polls that have been accurate during every election in my lifetime. It was inconceivable that they could have been that far off, however the theory that they were somehow biased for Hillary is nonsense unless you're going to accept the fact that those very same polling agencies were biased for Romney in 2012 and biased for McCain in 2008. Donald Trump broke the science of statistical sampling in political polls and now someone is going to have to figure out how to fix it or they are going to lose all credibility going forward.

I do take a lot of satisfaction from the fact that regressives on the left cost the Democrats this election. One week before election day Lena Dunham was calling for the extinction of straight white men. Lena Dunham is an admitted rapist (her own sister) and an admitted false rape accuser that for some reason remains immune from prosecution and continues to be popular and win Emmys. Straight white men decided to fuck her and everyone like her into submission and I'm glad they did. Also the murder-inspiring BLM movement was responsible for further Trump support and I'm glad it backfired. Finally the press failed spectacularly to report on the backlash against regressives and have repeatedly painted the alt-right (in reality mostly liberals and libertarians) as racist trolls without even being willing to talk to them.

That being said, Donald Trump is an unmitigated disaster and here are the prizes you have won:

1. Tax breaks for the rich. I'm very much looking forward to my capital gains tax cuts. It will allow me to sell some of my housing inventory at reduced taxes or possibly even eliminate them all together. With Donald Trump's substantial real estate holdings, I suspect he will make this a priority.

2. Elimination of all anti-immigrant rhetoric. If you think you're gonna get a wall, you're insane. There will be no wall nor will there be a ban of Muslims entering the country. Those of you who voted for Trump based on racism are in for a huge shock. You were played.

3. Packed Supreme court. This one is hard to predict. If Trump is true to his word, Roe v. Wade is toast and eminent domain will be strengthened to the point that corporations will be able to force their will on property owners nearly everywhere. This of course would require at least one more court vacancy but this is likely in the next 4 years. Regardless of how serious Trump was on his new fake abortion views, the new court will be extremely hostile towards individuals and extremely favorable towards the very corporations that you thought you were teaching a lesson to.

4. Widespread contempt for the United States abroad. Not much you can do about this. Foreigners will begin to see Americans as uneducated slobs who are racist and incapable of rational thought.

5. Globalism. If Trump is true to his word, we're in for an extremely bad depression. You cannot simply erect huge trade barriers and cancel trade treaties without disrupting the flow of goods and services around the world. Investment will plummet since no one will know exactly what to expect going forward. The severity of this depends on how serious he was and how quickly he intends to bring down the global economy but if it's implemented slowly enough, and with enough notice, the impact should be minimal. However unless Trump was outright lying, we're going to see inflation.

6. Obamacare. Republicans in congress are already getting the Obamacare repeal ready. If they replace it with nothing, expect to see lots of people return to uninsured status, policies canceled if you get sick, and further consolidation of drug monopolies. If you think you're going to be able to buy medicine in Canada or the free market will make your insurance cheaper, you're dreaming.

7. War. All Republican administrations since Nixon have been marked with horrendous military actions abroad. They consider it a way to enhance their popularity. I know some of you can't tell the difference between what we did in Iraq and what we did in Syria but you might get schooled on what a false flag operation looks like. The stakes are getting higher now.

8. Civil unrest. The regressive left is going to war and have already started. Watch AntiFa carry out their first true terrorist acts and watch the universities burn. They don't care anymore because they now think they live in Nazi Germany.

9. MASSIVE national debt increases. This one makes me laugh. You're gonna love it!

That's about all I can think of for now. Trump's victory speech was all about building bridges and bringing Americans together. None of you who voted for Trump want that so we'll see how this plays out over the next year. Also Donald Trump is one of the biggest liars in the world so who knows what he's actually going to do. I think it's possible and even likely that Trump gets impeached during the next 4 years. Good luck. You're gonna need it.

#politics

« First     « Previous     Comments 199-238 of 238     Last »

199   YesYNot   2016 Nov 11, 7:16am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

IMO, the major take-away for Democrats is that you cannot win an election by focusing on racism or sexism. If the majority just don't care about that even with a candidate like Donald, just forget about that play.
Maybe, they should have focused more on the environment. I also think that Hillary made a mistake refusing to defend what she likes about free trade. By failing to defend what she likes about the issue, she just looked like a duplicitous tool.

I wonder what the Green party is thinking today. Maybe they think Hillary would be just as bad, and also think about appointing a climate change denier to head the EPA. Maybe Stein will be comforted by Donald's lack of respect for science. They overlap a bit there.

200   zzyzzx   2016 Nov 11, 7:32am     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

201   FP   2016 Nov 11, 7:33am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

turtledove says

They just wanted the next president to be a woman so bad that they were blind to everything else.

Maybe there was some of this, but imho mostly Hillary wanted Hillary to be president and the establishment complied.

202   Strategist   2016 Nov 11, 7:46am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

YesYNot says

IMO, the major take-away for Democrats is that you cannot win an election by focusing on racism or sexism. If the majority just don't care about that even with a candidate like Donald, just forget about that play.

Maybe, they should have focused more on the environment. I also think that Hillary made a mistake refusing to defend what she likes about free trade. By failing to defend what she likes about the issue, she just looked like a duplicitous tool.

The Democrats should have focused more on terrorism, and less on locker room talk.

203   indigenous   2016 Nov 11, 7:49am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

204   Dan8267   2016 Nov 11, 8:41am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

turtledove says

They just wanted the next president to be a woman so bad that they were blind to everything else. The ends justified the means.

Agreed for the most part. That was a huge problem. A woman at any cost, even a woman who would set back women's rights by 40 years.

However, I would like to add that Hillary was also picked because she was the insider next in line to be president, whereas Bernie Sanders was a rebel rouser and outsider as far as the DNC was concerned. Sanders was stirring up trouble, whereas Hillary has a long history of touting the DNC's agenda and making political connections and favors. Had both candidates been men or both been women, Hillary would still have been chosen over Sanders and done everything they could to ensure Hillary was the nominee.

It's too bad that Hillary actually prevented two really good women from having any chance of becoming president. I'd love to see an Elizabeth Warren / William Black ticket. I'd also like to see Jill Stein run as a Democrat with the Democrats adopting the Green Party's platform largely or in whole.

205   FortWayne   2016 Nov 11, 8:46am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

......or we'll elect a reality TV host who's a twitter warrior narcissist who lies all the time and sues comedians.

I'm sure the world is shaking in their boots.

So far yes they are. Obama no one was afraid of, Putin did whatever the hell he wanted because he knew Obama would never retaliate. Trump is exactly the kind of person we needed to put the foot down, not Obama with his meaningless red lines.

206   Dan8267   2016 Nov 11, 8:54am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

turtledove says

I want Dan to be happy, too. Maybe Taylor Swift can be the 3rd party candidate.

If Taylor Swift ran for president once her fans are old enough to vote, she'd win in a landslide even as a third party candidate. Remember when California elected Arnold Schwarzenegger as governor in that recall election? Americans love celebrities, and Taylor Swift has an army of followers not seen since the Kiss Army all got hip replacements and had to retire.

And you don't want to fuck with the army of teenage girls that make up the Swift Army. Just ask Michael J. Fox.

207   iwog   2016 Nov 11, 9:50am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

FortWayne says

So far yes they are. Obama no one was afraid of, Putin did whatever the hell he wanted because he knew Obama would never retaliate.

How can you be this stupid?

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/17/politics/russia-putin-trump/

208   TwoScoopsMcGee   2016 Nov 11, 9:50am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

209   Peter P   2016 Nov 11, 9:52am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Obamacare will go much sooner than that list suggests.

210   TwoScoopsMcGee   2016 Nov 11, 9:53am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I agree. It will probably come before the wall and certainly before the second term.

The Wall has already been authorized many times, just not funded by the Country Club GOP.

211   Peter P   2016 Nov 11, 9:53am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

I still think the wall is symbolic. But he will improve border security bigly.

212   indigenous   2016 Nov 11, 9:55am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

What is the point illegal immigration is way down.

213   iwog   2016 Nov 11, 10:00am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

I've never heard anyone say most of those things on the bottom part of your list. In fact most liberals voted against Trump based on the premise that he would try to do those things.

Regarding a literal wall that Mexico will pay for, Trump doesn't even believe it. It's a campaign ploy:

“You know, if it gets a little boring, if I see people starting to sort of, maybe thinking about leaving, I can sort of tell the audience, I just say, ‘We will build the wall!’ and they go nuts.”

~ Donald Trump

214   TwoScoopsMcGee   2016 Nov 11, 10:07am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

He's definitely said abolish Obamacare, repeal Common Core, renegotiate the Trade Deals, bring back manufacturing, and deport illegal aliens over and over and over again.

The Wall is going to end up being a mix of roads/railroads, economic zones, free trade zones, and actual physical and electronic barriers.

Relocate the maquiadoras to the Wall Area, slap a 15% payroll tax on employed Mexicans there, and whack up a portion of it with the Mexican Elite who can steal some of that money for themselves in return for their assistance. They'll be glad to do it. The rest will go towards building/maintaining the BEZ (Border Economic Zone).

215   iwog   2016 Nov 11, 10:10am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

NO ONE has said he wouldn't push to abolish Obamacare. Congress has tried to repeal it 400 times now.
NO ONE has said he wouldn't repeal Common Core. Most people don't even know what the fuck that is.
NO ONE has said he wouldn't renegotiate trade deals unless it's the Republicans.
NO ONE has said he wouldn't deport illegal aliens. Even Obama deports illegal aliens unless they were brought here as minors.

I know you're looking for effect here but be serious.

BTW what do you think about the CEO of J.P. Morgan being our treasury secretary?

216   TwoScoopsMcGee   2016 Nov 11, 10:11am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Who would it have been if Hillary was President? William Black? Ralph Nader? hahahahahhaha

It's a rumor he's considering, not an announcement yet.

217   Strategist   2016 Nov 11, 10:12am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

Regarding a literal wall that Mexico will pay for, Trump doesn't even believe it. It's a campaign ploy:

It could boil down to how Mexico pays for the wall. They certainly aren't gonna send a check to us. It might be indirectly through trade negotiations and tariffs.
If we want to keep out illegals, building a wall is the most effective way.

218   iwog   2016 Nov 11, 10:12am     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

Thunderlips Licks Shill Tears says

Who would it have been in Hillary was President? William Black? hahahahahhaha

Do you have any idea how badly this discredits everything you've ever written about Hillary being in the pocket of Wall Street and Trump standing up to bankers?

How the fuck do you reconcile this???

219   Peter P   2016 Nov 11, 10:13am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Self-deportation is the answer. It only sounded "wrong" because it came out of Romney's mouth.

220   TwoScoopsMcGee   2016 Nov 11, 10:16am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

How the fuck do you reconcile this???

I don't have anything to reconcile, you are taking an anonymous 'source' that one or more Trump advisers recommended Dimon = Dimon was asked and accepted

That's it.

221   Peter P   2016 Nov 11, 10:16am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

This election is mostly about Red Pill vs. Blue Pill. Most people don't really care about policy DETAILS.

Most likely, we are screwed anyway.

222   iwog   2016 Nov 11, 10:20am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

Thunderlips Licks Shill Tears says

I don't have anything to reconcile, you are taking an anonymous 'source' that one or more Trump advisers recommended Dimon = Dimon was asked and accepted

Fascinating. Okay let me ask you this then. If a Wall Street insider, a high official of either Goldman or J.P. Morgan, is handed the treasury, what will your opinion be then?

I'd like to know in advance if you actually stand for anything.

223   Peter P   2016 Nov 11, 10:26am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

If a Wall Street insider, a high official of either Goldman or J.P. Morgan, is handed the treasury, what will your opinion be then?

Relieved. He is making peace. He has a chance to really do something. Even if nothing goes beyond the narratives we are at least not going the wrong way for now.

224   TwoScoopsMcGee   2016 Nov 11, 10:28am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

Fascinating. Okay let me ask you this then. If a Wall Street insider, a high official of either Goldman or J.P. Morgan, is handed the treasury, what will your opinion be then?

I'd like to know in advance if you actually stand for anything.

I'll be somewhat disappointed. I would prefer somebody like Icahn (who doesn't want the Job). Somebody who understands real goods and infrastructure, not paper fraud ("FInancial Innovation")

However, Hillary wasn't going to appoint Elizabeth Warren for the role, either. It may just be a sop to Wall Street.

Not that he needs it, the market is doing great.

225   zzyzzx   2016 Nov 11, 1:34pm     ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

My prediction is nothing Trump was elected to accomplished will actually be carried out.

WASHINGTON, Nov. 10 (UPI) — Incoming Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Thursday told trade unions the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal is dead in the new Congress, aligning with a key element of President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda for the first 100 days.

IWOG WRONG AGAIN!

Trump isn't even in office yet, and is already having positive effect.

#iwogwrong

226   finehoe   2016 Nov 14, 6:54am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

the national debt is going to skyrocket

...and the teabaggers who said this was the absolutely worse problem faced by the nation will be strangely silent.

227   just any guy   2016 Nov 14, 6:59am     ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote    

iwog says

NO ONE has said he wouldn't push to abolish Obamacare. Congress has tried to repeal it 400 times now.

NO ONE has said he wouldn't repeal Common Core. Most people don't even know what the fuck that is.

NO ONE has said he wouldn't renegotiate trade deals unless it's the Republicans.

NO ONE has said he wouldn't deport illegal aliens. Even Obama deports illegal aliens unless they were brought here as minors.

You're so angry. Have a Snickers bar.

228   zzyzzx   2016 Nov 14, 7:41am     ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike   quote    

just any guy says

You're so angry. Have a Snickers bar.

He's just angry because if all his butt-hurt AND that fact that just 2 days after the election with TPP dead, Trump already made Iwog galactically wrong without even getting into office.

229   TwoScoopsMcGee   2016 Nov 14, 9:03am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

We also learned in this election that GIGO.

It was also on a private server, and there's nothing sillier than a soulless candidate being guided by a computer later being blamed for lack of Warmth by her boosters.

230   zzyzzx   2016 Nov 18, 12:00pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

231   finehoe   2016 Nov 18, 12:05pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

^^Reactionary con longing for a hereditary ruling family.

232   Dan8267   2016 Nov 18, 1:26pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Thunderlips is Tovbot2 says

We also learned in this election that GIGO.

Obviously named after Ada Lovelace Byron.

233   Peter P   2016 Nov 18, 1:27pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I laugh at data-driven anything.

Any "methodical" approach can be easily gamed.

234   Dan8267   2016 Nov 18, 1:27pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

zzyzzx is sad says

I, for one, look forward to our hot chick presidents.

235   Dan8267   2016 Nov 18, 1:27pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Dan8267 says

I, for one, look forward to our hot chick presidents.

Oh shit, they won't be hot in those years.

236   Peter P   2016 Nov 18, 1:28pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Dan8267 says

Obviously named after Ada Lovelace Byron.

An insult to Ada Lovelace.

237   Peter P   2016 Nov 18, 1:29pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Dan8267 says

Dan8267 says

I, for one, look forward to our hot chick presidents.

Oh shit, they won't be hot in those years.

Ivanka 2024 will still look fine.

238   Rew   2016 Nov 18, 2:36pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

BTW what do you think about the CEO of J.P. Morgan being our treasury secretary?

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