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Predictions on Housing....

By joshuatrio   Jun 8, 4:44am   6 links   2,231 views   44 comments   watch (0)   quote      

What are your predictions on housing? Seems like we're in bubble territory again. Home around here are selling in 1-2 days if they are in good condition and priced in line with other comp's. Inventory is still on the low side and this seems like this needs to end at some point... I bought my house 9 months ago and could make about $50k more on it if it were sold now (based on comp's/recent sales in area). That seems excessive.

Also, my neighbors (in their 70's) have 3 generations of children living with them. Children, grandchildren and great grand children. The children all complaining that they want to buy, but have to look way out in the sticks because of prices, and that everything is becoming unaffordable again.

Anyhow, what are your predictions?

Another crash? Flatlining? Increase/decrease in price? Timelines?

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5   MMR   383/383 = 100% civil   Jun 8, 6:00am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

BayAreaObserver says

eeks. Like you area if the price is remotely reasonable and the property in decent condition, they sell in days. Those pushing the envelope on price are not so lucky

Any place in Atlanta that is in good condition or renovated in a gentrifying neighborhood is getting asking or above

6   MMR   383/383 = 100% civil   Jun 8, 6:02am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

BayAreaObserver says

longer I am here and the more people I talk to, hour commutes are not uncommon and "supposedly" I live in a well to do neighborhood by local historical standards.

Fishers, IN? Seems to be getting built up a lot and increasingly far from downtown Indianapolis

7   BayAreaObserver   1067/1068 = 99% civil   Jun 8, 6:11am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

MMR - Sounds like your buyers were looking for an out and used the gates. I've always done mine after the inspection gets back.

Broad Ripple would be the closest thing I could thing I can think of here quickly to an area undergoing some type of "gentrification" however the crime after dark is still a consideration since it is not going down that much.

A few properties are getting slightly above asking but asking seems to be the status quo and so far - so far property appraisals have not gotten stupid and are fairly conservative but that just goes along with the area and the mindset around here. Common sense and conservative is the name of the game in most things financial and otherwise.

Decent housing is very affordable in the area including new construction and outside of the city limits in areas I have previously mentioned schools are very good to great, you have a mortgage exemption, homestead exemption and other exemptions available to homeowners to lower your property tax bill. I keep checking other markets I looked at in 2014 in different states that do not have any property tax exemptions and somewhat stunned now by the increases and amounts being levied annually on what would be comparable properties.

8   NuttBoxer   418/421 = 99% civil   Jun 8, 11:35am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Definitely headed toward a crash, but housing is the cause as much as cars, bonds, stocks, etc. Real cause is the same that was active in '08, and has never gone away. Printing money backed by nothing.

We had a place listed two doors down from us in the $560-$600+ range. House was certainly nicely renovated, but the area, while a good neighborhood, is not the most upscale in Chula Vista. Sold within about 2 months of being listed. History we found out from neighbor, it used to be a crack house of sorts. The lady who owned it was a drug addict, and would let other drug addict friends hang out. Did they cook meth? Who knows, but apparently she's already shown up once to harass the new owners.

So yeah, market has topped.

9   Tenpoundbass   1415/1417 = 99% civil   Jun 8, 11:41am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

We're headed for the economic reboot we should have had in 2008, but everyone was propped up with too big to fail bailouts.
Those few failed bastards of 2008, should have propagated out into over 100,000 new small business ventures hiring millions of people. In a race to coalesce all of the wealth into one bank again.

As a result of the 2008 financial meddling, those that fucked everything up held on to it, and became bigger monopolies.

I want it all to crash and burn hard. I'll be there at the burial in my V8 Ford to pick up shit in the fire sale Auction.

I'm fixin to git paid Ya'll!

10   joeyjojojunior   883/888 = 99% civil   Jun 8, 11:55am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Printing money backed by nothing doesn't cause a crash, it causes a rise in prices. More money chasing the same number of goods = higher prices, not lower prices.

11   joeyjojojunior   883/888 = 99% civil   Jun 8, 12:00pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I never get the "wisdom" on here that a crash somehow magically "resets" things back to being good again. There is nothing healed by a crash. Nothing is fixed.

A crash makes the 99.99% of people poorer and the 0.01% get richer by buying up all of the productive assets at fire sale prices. Things are permanently worse off for everyone but the richest of the rich. Wealth and income become more concentrated. It's bad.

12   NuttBoxer   418/421 = 99% civil   Jun 8, 12:01pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

joeyjojojunior says

Printing money backed by nothing doesn't cause a crash,

Still wetting your feet in economic theory I see. Leveraging creates instability by playing a confidence game that citizens never win. Look into the root of every economic crash in this country, and you will find speculation, and attempted manipulation.

Look at the topic of this thread, nothing rises forever, but they don't dare stop the presses.

13   joeyjojojunior   883/888 = 99% civil   Jun 8, 12:03pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Here's a pro-tip for you. Printing money isn't the same as speculation.

14   BayAreaObserver   1067/1068 = 99% civil   Jun 8, 12:52pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

MMR - Fishers, Zionsville, Carmel, Noblesville etc. are 15-20 miles from city center more or less. All of them are growing very fast however there seems to be a fair amount of decent thought and control by the cities involved. Right now (and I hope it stays that way) crime is very well under control, infrastructure improvements are thought out and done before or during major new business comes in and the mix of businesses etc. is fairly decent.

There are plenty of very nice places to the southwest and south of the city as well. You can be all country and in the city within an hour if that's your thing. Traffic while not up to West Coast or big city standards can be irritating at times which would be a breeze in any other place.

All in all I am pleased with my move here - probably not the best for young single 20 something's but that is slowly changing as well but not to the point of driving away families which is what this area is really all about.

15   Rew   1138/1138 = 100% civil   Jun 8, 3:49pm  ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Housing US General/Near Me
Tiny supply, huge demand, nothing super scary in the financial space specifically to mortgages.
Moderate price gains continue. It's a snooze fest like the last two years. Ya-awwwwwn.

I probably don't have a good enough grasp on all areas of the market to really call it, but the only thing looking over inflated to me is the stock market, in general, and it likely has more legs to go before it turns. I don't think we will see housing as leading factor in the next turn down.

Tenpoundbass says

We're headed for the economic reboot we should have had in 2008, but everyone was propped up with too big to fail bailouts.

Not correct. We are headed for the run up that will set-up the failure. The disconnect between main-street and Wall Street is already order times larger (which is what you and I feel, what you are actually commenting on). This means the run up likely doesn't get too big. Trump himself, being an incompetent leader in the eyes of most, will naturally temper some risky behavior as well.

I'll stand back now so you can continue to eagerly sprinkle gasoline and expletives about the place. ;)

16   APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE   1344/1344 = 100% civil   Jun 8, 4:01pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

FACE!

FACE! IT'S ALL THAT'S LEFT FOR DINNER!

17   Jimbo in SF   15/15 = 100% civil   Jun 8, 9:56pm  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

I just don't see the crash yet.
- Remember 2001 when all your work buddies we're buying IPOs every day?
- Remember 2007 when your Mexican house cleaner owned 3 houses herself?

I'm not seeing that level of craziness at the moment.

When 'Joe Public' is back investing in the market and you hear about stock picks at your son's baseball game - that's when you start getting worried.

18   RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks   205/205 = 100% civil   Jun 8, 10:35pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

it does not necessarily crash but prices may simply slowly go down.

not sure when but right now i personally think is not a good time. esp in CA.

19   MMR   383/383 = 100% civil   Jun 9, 6:01am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

BayAreaObserver says

MMR - Sounds like your buyers were looking for an out and used the gates. I've always done mine after the inspection gets back.

Agreed-I think it was the ethnic mix as they are older and southern. Lot of blacks, Africans, Indians and Asians and significant number of gay households as well.

20   Blurtman   564/564 = 100% civil   Jun 9, 6:17am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

In the Seattle area, prices were up 12% YOY. Inventory is low as in-the-money homeowners can sell but can't buy again in the area. We are selling our home and moving out of the area. Our home will have almost doubled in value at the anticipated sales price since we bought in 2005. I don't think it is a bubble meaning that it will burst as lending standards are not as terribly lax as they were in the last meltdown. I do think homes are generally unaffordable for most folks. A lot of buyers in this area are from China and India. They are typically H1b job takers and now home takers. Amazon, Google, etc are hiring, and a two income family can still afford to buy an $800k-$1 million home, apparently.

21   just any guy   256/256 = 100% civil   Jun 9, 6:47am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

joeyjojojunior says

Printing money isn't the same as speculation.

Maybe not, but it generally leads to speculation. With so much liquidity and low interest rates, investors seek returns any place they can get them. That usually leads to speculation.

22   Strategist   2012/2017 = 99% civil   Jun 9, 7:20am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Jimbo in SF says

I just don't see the crash yet.

- Remember 2001 when all your work buddies we're buying IPOs every day?

- Remember 2007 when your Mexican house cleaner owned 3 houses herself?

I'm not seeing that level of craziness at the moment.

When 'Joe Public' is back investing in the market and you hear about stock picks at your son's baseball game - that's when you start getting worried.

There is absolutely no crazy bubbles in the residential housing market right now.
We don't have anything close to super high leverage to unqualified borrowers. Neither are we building homes like we did during the bubble era, and therefore we have a true shortage of homes.

23   NuttBoxer   418/421 = 99% civil   Jun 9, 11:21am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

joeyjojojunior says

Here's a pro-tip for you. Printing money isn't the same as speculation.

Because JJJ SAYS SO.

How bout we live in the world where you're not always right(this one). What do you call creating debt notes that require a repayment that is always higher than the value the notes represent when you have done nothing to guarantee your ability to pay those notes+interest back? And to make it worse, don't tie the notes to any physical asset, so there is absolutely zero assurance of any repayment ever being made?

24   jvolstad   195/195 = 100% civil   Jun 9, 12:37pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Let's see what happens to housing values when the Fed stops devaluing the dollar and interest rates return to normal levels. Check!!

I am looking forward to a better return on my CD's.

25   Rew   1138/1138 = 100% civil   Jun 9, 1:02pm  ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Jvolstad ... you would see a negative inflation/CPI rate and a deflationary depression in a snap ... if the Fed was stupid enough to tighten the reigns to that degree.

26   joeyjojojunior   883/888 = 99% civil   Jun 10, 7:38am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

NuttBoxer says

How bout we live in the world where you're not always right(this one). What do you call creating debt notes that require a repayment that is always higher than the value the notes represent when you have done nothing to guarantee your ability to pay those notes+interest back? And to make it worse, don't tie the notes to any physical asset, so there is absolutely zero assurance of any repayment ever being made?

Not sure what you're even taking about here. Government issuing debt notes? The notes are tied to the income generating ability of the United States. But what does this have to do with housing being overvalued?

27   FortWayne   871/877 = 99% civil   Jun 10, 7:58am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

I'm not aware of any subprime swaps or whatever the hell complicated name financial instrument they were using in the past to bundle and sell them. So it's probably not a bubble, but just a sign of times. Everything is expensive because of liberal policies that promote huge demand and low supply. CA was better off when it was Republican, it's terrible what's going on these days.

28   zzyzzx   983/983 = 100% civil   Jun 21, 10:30am  ↑ like (6)   ↓ dislike   quote    

29   joshuatrio   112/113 = 99% civil   Jun 25, 9:56am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Another house just went up in my neighborhood and went pending in 24 hrs. Un-frikin-believable.

That's 3 homes in the last 2 months this has happened to.

30   Strategist   2012/2017 = 99% civil   Jun 25, 10:11am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

joshuatrio says

Another house just went up in my neighborhood and went pending in 24 hrs. Un-frikin-believable.

That's 3 homes in the last 2 months this has happened to.

That's what happens when there's very little to buy. Expect further price increases too.

31   MMR   383/383 = 100% civil   Jun 25, 10:27am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

BayAreaObserver says

MMR - Sounds like your buyers were looking for an out and used the gates. I've always done mine after the inspection gets back

Most likely....finally got house sold at full ask with buyers covering closing and moved out....took an extra week and got into "bidding war" with two people.

If first buyer fails to secure financing, there is another offer in wings at same terms.

32   MMR   383/383 = 100% civil   Jun 25, 10:29am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

joshuatrio says

Another house just went up in my neighborhood and went pending in 24 hrs. Un-frikin-believable.

That's 3 homes in the last 2 months this has happened to.

Your area definitely hot...south suburbs would take up to 6 months on market, as no one actually working in city would want to live there

33   lostand confused   513/513 = 100% civil   Jun 25, 12:32pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Yeah in in my area if you actually got what you paid for it-would be a great deal- prices are going up.

In my area, things are up about 20-30% when compared to 3-4 years ago. Which in this area is yuuge. Lets see, I am tempted to sell. I have started seeing a few listings though.

34   just any guy   256/256 = 100% civil   Jun 25, 1:21pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

I don't see housing ever dropping again in our lifetimes. Anywhere from 3-65% gains every year.

35   curious2   1128/1128 = 100% civil   Jun 25, 1:33pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

just any guy says

I don't see housing ever dropping again in our lifetimes.

IDK about that. Autonomous cars, 3D printing, and robotic construction might enable developers to build whole new towns, with each house made to order on a timetable never possible before. An old pile of sticks might seem less valuable when competitors offer a brand new house made with modern materials in 10 days, and an autonomous car makes the commuting distance trivial. Between 2020 and 2030, suburbs might face unprecedented competition from exurbs, bringing prices down closer to a much reduced replacement cost. Even cities might feel the downward pressure, if suburban and exurban prices fall enough.

36   joshuatrio   112/113 = 99% civil   Jun 26, 4:13am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

MMR says

Your area definitely hot...south suburbs would take up to 6 months on market, as no one actually working in city would want to live there

Agree. I'm guessing it's the schools on the North side that are drawing families in.

MMR says

Most likely....finally got house sold at full ask with buyers covering closing and moved out....took an extra week and got into "bidding war" with two people.

If first buyer fails to secure financing, there is another offer in wings at same terms.

Congrats!!

37   junkmail   34/34 = 100% civil   Jun 26, 10:37am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Obviously property is local but in a few cities in California wages don't compare to rents/prices. Also rents + prices are rising faster than hourly wages. If you agree with that information... we are headed to bubble territory. (if not there already)
If you think bubbles don't exist in housing, just look at Toronto over the last year and Vancouver the last year and a half. Both bubbles and both have burst. Toronto in the last 3 months.

38   BayArea   417/417 = 100% civil   Jun 26, 10:49am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Here is the difference:

The melt-down we had a decade ago was based on a subprime lending crisis. The market was heading to the moon and lenders were giving out loans to anyone with a pulse. As long as the market continued to rise, the system worked great, everyone continued to benefit and get rich. But as soon that market growth stopped, we all saw what happened next.

This time things are not being driven by a subprime lending crisis. They are being driven by an increasing gap between home price and wages. That can only diverge for so long before there is a problem. Should we expect a correction? Ya probably, I think we'll see a small correction. Will it be a melt-down, not by any stretch of the imagination. People have skin in the game now.

39   Heraclitusstudent   312/312 = 100% civil   Jun 26, 11:03am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

BayArea says

That can only diverge for so long before there is a problem.

As long as the housing supply is way below the demand, you'll get more homeless but prices won't go down.
The operating procedure for the elite is to sacrifice an increasing amount of people to keep the status quo going.

40   Heraclitusstudent   312/312 = 100% civil   Jun 26, 11:05am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

BayArea says

This time things are not being driven by a subprime lending crisis

There are qualified mortgages with debt-to-income ratio below 43% (already very high), but this can be exceeded for non-qualified mortgages.
When there is a sufficient downdraft in the market, we will see a foreclosure wave again.

41   Goran_K   624/624 = 100% civil   Jun 26, 11:11am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Heraclitusstudent says

As long as the housing supply is way below the demand, you'll get more homeless but prices won't go down.

The operating procedure for the elite is to sacrifice an increasing amount of people to keep the status quo going.

It's also over regulation. It doesn't make sense for builders to go and build homes and target middle class buyers when the government is taking such a large slice of the investment up front. If government would stop putting their hands into developers pockets, you would have much larger supply.

42   BayAreaObserver   1067/1068 = 99% civil   Jun 30, 4:49am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

A new real estate “Hotness Index” is loaded with Bay Area housing markets, which is only to be expected.

Less expected is this: the Vallejo-Fairfield market in Solano County is the No. 1 “hottest” in the nation. Vallejo, a city whose reputation has been tarnished through the years by news reports about crime and gangs, has established itself as a hot housing destination, according to the June index from realtor.com.

Last month’s sale price for a single-family home in Vallejo was $365,000 and properties are moving quickly.

“Something’s on the market, and you look at the map and see we’re about the cheapest place in the Bay, with a fast commute to the city,” said Ron Gold, a Vallejo-based agent with the Re/Max Gold real estate franchise. “If you want something cheaper, you’d have to go to Stockton.”

People are going there, too. The index ranks the Stockton-Lodi area as the 14th hottest market in the U.S.

The monthly index measures where houses are selling the fastest — they’re typically gone within 31 days in Vallejo-Fairfield — as well as which markets are generating the most listing views on realtor.com.

Beyond that, the index has become a reflection of the Bay Area’s housing crisis, which is pushing commuters to purchase homes at relatively affordable prices in out-of-the-way places.

Yes, the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward metropolitan area is the No. 2 “hottest” in the country, and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara is No. 9 on the list.

But then there is the Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade metro area (No. 4) and Santa Rosa (No. 17). Yuba City – in Sutter County, about 40 miles north of Sacramento — is the nation’s 19th hottest market, and Modesto is No. 20.

More: http://www.eastbaytimes.com/2017/06/29/nations-hottest-housing-markets-include-oakland-san-jose-and-vallejo/

43   Quigley   885/891 = 99% civil   Jun 30, 5:57am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Heraclitusstudent says

There are qualified mortgages with debt-to-income ratio below 43% (already very high), but this can be exceeded for non-qualified mortgages.

When there is a sufficient downdraft in the market, we will see a foreclosure wave again.

I see more Preforeclosures on the local market than I do houses for sale. While this might seem ominous, I've yet to see a single house for sale as a foreclosure or short sale or any of that sort prevalent around 2010. And I highly doubt I will. All foreclosures get snapped up by housing investors, and then either flipped or turned into rentals. If flipped, they'll put a veneer on the house, paint it, add a few sparkles, and then try to sell it for $150-200k more. In this market, they may get that. Still hardly anything for sale, and winning a bid vs. all the other offers is the obstacle.

44   BayAreaObserver   1067/1068 = 99% civil   Jul 17, 2:59pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Locally here I am starting to see a greater number of price reductions on properties that have not been on the market a month. Also seeing an uptick in advertisements either on side of the road, TV, etc. for house flipping and the how to be a flipper shows are on most mornings and evenings now.

No idea about the foreclosures market around here.

As for the sellers - it seems reality is hitting fantasy rather quickly concerning what they thought they would get. Property between 150-250 still running strong but on the upper end of that range is where most of the price drops are occurring. The closing of the Marsh grocery stores and continued news about other layoffs/closing may be weighing on some minds.

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