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iwog's trades & investing opinions

By curious2   Jun 21, 2:04pm   1 link   1,860 views   44 comments   watch (2)   quote      

Experience has taught me to respect iwog. He posts information about his trades and recommendations, although they can end up like needles in a haystack of other comments and posts. More than once, I've wished PatNet had a specific thread to follow the trades and recommendations that iwog posts on PatNet. I've created this post as an experiment only for that purpose. If you see an iwog trade or recommendation in a different thread, please comment here.

To help readers watch comments by email without getting flooded, please limit comments in this thread to the topic. If you want to comment or reply off topic, please use the reply thread or create a new post.

I should also quote iwog's 2014.08.28 disclaimer: "I am not a trader and.... I am not an expert and you should not copy what I'm doing unless you blame someone else if this turns out wrong."

The specific context that motivated this post was iwog's comment 2015.12.22, where he commented he had bought ARLP, which has now returned +50% in less than two years despite a recent drop. I have not bought ARLP, because I decided not to get coal ash and acid rain on my hands, but it has gained 50% since he recommended it less than two years ago.

#Investing

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5   iwog   Jun 21, 2:42pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

9/2014 iwog says

HUGE rally in bonds after I published this and bond rates continue to be on the trend line.

6   Bellingham Bill   Jun 21, 10:13pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

My BAC-L is up 5% in a month, LOL.

https://patrick.net/1293642/2016-07-26-arlp-blows-away-earnings-makes-iwog-gloriously-rich?c=1412969#comment-1412969

Probably end of the road of the equity gains, but the position has 5.9% dividends locked in, until the common hits $65 at least.

Like I said earlier, I WANT to lose my shirt on BAC. That would mean home prices would have collapsed again, which is good cuz I still gotta buy a place!

7   HEY YOU   Jun 21, 11:31pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

My investments always go up & never go down.
Notice that no one ever mentions losing money.

8   errc   Jun 22, 5:07am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

I can't parse through all his comments to find the post to link, but Iwog recommended WFC as it moved up into the low 40's.

That pick is up 30%, plus about ten dividend payouts

Thanks Iwog

9   lostand confused   Jun 22, 6:01am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

My pick in the oil drillers has gone south. But otherwise I am out , parked it in bonds for a bit-lets see.

10   BlueSardine   Jun 22, 6:23am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    


11   BlueSardine   Jun 22, 6:24am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    


12   curious2   Jul 30, 2:26pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

Why stock market analysts are a joke

13   errc   Jul 30, 7:18pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Years ago, Iwog generally predicted that the entire stock market was going to bubble. He's probably correct with that also. I'm all in, so I hope so.

I'm thinking housing will see less appreciation for awhile. I have a friend that just told me he had an offer accepted on a house, and he's the best contrarian indicator I know. Like he alone can mush housing across the globe, simply by buying his first house

14   SubOink   Aug 1, 10:41am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

errc says

Like he alone can mush housing across the globe, simply by buying his first house

lol - I have friends like that too

15   errc   Aug 1, 10:46am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

SubOink says

errc says

Like he alone can mush housing across the globe, simply by buying his first house

lol - I have friends like that too

This is no laughing matter, heed the warning, or ignore at your own peril!

16   SubOink   Aug 4, 8:40am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

What's your thought on this @iwog? I am not exactly a fan of Greenspan but if that was to happen, NAC would be a sell.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/04/greenspan-bond-bubble-about-to-break-because-of-abnormally-low-interest-rates.html

17   theoakman   Aug 4, 10:57am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

I'll never be able to dig up the old threads where he said he held BGS and MO because they were on the old board. But for the record, I took a look at them when he did and bought in.

BGS had just announced a 17 cent dividend which is basically Jan 2009. The stock was at around $5. It rallied all the way to $50 last year. It's only pulled back this year and is around $30. So potentially, this was a 1000% gain in value if you sold off at the right time but as it stands, it's a 600% gain. That's not even including the dividends. It's dividends have more than doubled and if you bought at the time of his post, it was yielding around 13.5%. So, I basically have held since then, and am up 600% and earning about 30% in dividends on my original investment.

If you look at MO in the same time frame, it's up over 300%. It was originally yielding somewhere around 8% in 2009. Dividends have doubled.

This was particularly important for me because at the time, I was 28, just finishing grad school and investing purely in gold/silver related investments. I gravitated towards Iwog because he was screaming the hyperinflation siren. At the same time, he was basically calling market bottoms in real estate and the stock market and buying into non gold things. If this hadn't happened, I think I would have stayed in gold/silver exclusively during those years. When he was calling for a bubble and collapse in silver, I basically sold out of all my mining positions and kept my physical. That allowed me to avoid getting slaughtered. Since then, I've joined the church of Iwog...at least when it comes to investing.

18   marcus   Aug 4, 11:10am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

delete is gone - but I deleted this comment, since it was based on incorrect assumptions about this thread. Yes, I should have either read the OP, or if I am trying so hard not to read curious2, I should not have made the presumptive comment that I did.

My bad.

19   iwog   Aug 4, 11:30am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

SubOink says

What's your thought on this IWOG? I am not exactly a fan of Greenspan but if that was to happen, NAC would be a sell.

Loving NAC right now. Absolutely a buy.

Sometimes I think I'm the only person in the world who understands how long term interest rates work. The term "abnormally low interest rates" means nothing. Japan has been carrying 10-year rates between 0% and .5% for decades. Compared with most of the world, our bonds look dirt cheap.

The ONLY risk to NAC would be a recessionary scenario that sends municipalities into bankruptcy. It would play out over many months and bonds would rally big time prior to the collapse with plenty of time to liquidate and go to cash.

20   iwog   Aug 4, 11:35am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

marcus says

I haven't been around much in a while. Iwog, has curious2 been stalking you ?

He's angry over some disagreement we had that degenerated into the usual trash fire. I'm not too worried about it.

This thread was actually complementary.

21   iwog   Aug 4, 11:38am     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

I'm going to repost my interest rate graph from 2014. As everyone can see, nothing has changed despite a stock market rally and the ridiculous overestimation of Donald Trump. We are still square on the trend line. Interest rates can and will go to 0%.

22   tr6   Aug 4, 12:04pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

Interest rates can and will go to 0%.

I hope not. I sold a lot of bonds in the last month hoping for increase in long term rates in the next six to nine months.

23   iwog   Aug 4, 12:14pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

tr6 says

I hope not. I sold a lot of bonds in the last month hoping for increase in long term rates in the next six to nine months.

I think the odds of that are very low but I've been wrong before.

The stock market bubble might push rates up a little bit but that's it.

24   tr6   Aug 4, 12:20pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

The stock market bubble might push rates up a little bit but that's it.

I definitely see a cap on rates. For example if 10 year went back to 2.7 -2.8 range I would add back to the bond funds.. With rates near 0 in Europe and Japan due to Central Bank buying it's hard to see how US long term rates can rise too much. Don't tell me again that central banks don't matter. Italy Debt to GDP is 132%. 10 year rates at 2.00%.

25   iwog   Aug 4, 12:27pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

tr6 says

Don't tell me again that central banks don't matter. Italy Debt to GDP is 132%. 10 year rates at 2.00%.

The central banks don't matter.

Bond rates are set by idle cash bidding against other idle cash. The only thing that influences bond rates is the supply of bonds versus the supply of idle cash and the market is becoming worldwide. Wealth disparity is on a tear and with the Republicans burning down the remainder of the middle class, there's no reason why our bonds aren't going to go the way of Japan.

Also I'm about 100% more confident in the next Depression showing up in 2019 and 2020. I'm selling several properties next year to prepare for it.

26   tr6   Aug 4, 12:28pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

the supply of bond

ECB buying up 1/3 of all bonds reduces supply.

27   iwog   Aug 4, 12:29pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

tr6 says

ECB buying up 1/3 of all bonds reduces supply.

Yup and that's the market NOW with the German 10-year selling with a .5% yield.

Compared to the rest of the world, our bonds are crazy cheap.

28   marcus   Aug 4, 12:33pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

This thread was actually complementary.

So I see. I probably should have read it, instead of making a bit of a fool of myself. I read the first comment, thinking it was curious2 going after you. Quite the contrary. Well that's a good sign. I guess it's the opposite of what I said, and he or she is making nice.

29   tr6   Aug 4, 1:18pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

Yup and that's the market NOW

You just said that central banks don't affect rates.

30   iwog   Aug 4, 2:14pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

tr6 says

iwog says

Yup and that's the market NOW

You just said that central banks don't affect rates.

I'm saying that even if you accept the premise that a central bank is making bonds more scarce, the most popular euro bond is paying damn near 0%. Considering QE didn't move bonds at all when it started and didn't move bonds at all when it ended, I'd say regardless of what policy is implemented going forward, at most you're going to see bonds move a few ticks and that's it.

31   tr6   Aug 4, 3:15pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

Considering QE didn't move bonds at all when it started and didn't move bonds at all when it ended

Don't rewrite the history. . Operation Twist in 2011 dropped 10 year yields below 2.00 from 3.75 earlier in the year.

When did EQ end? we still have 4.5T Fed balance sheet. Complete end of QE would mean the balance sheet gets back to 1T.

32   iwog   Aug 4, 8:06pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

tr6 says

Don't rewrite the history. . Operation Twist in 2011 dropped 10 year yields below 2.00 from 3.75 earlier in the year.

It did no such thing and I can't believe you actually believe it. What gives you the right to simply wipe out 90% of the data and arbitrarily pick a point on the graph at 3.75 and arbitrarily pick another point on the graph at 2???? Operation twist wasn't even the biggest insult to the bond market, QE was. However for some reason you separate the two like they aren't related policies.

33   iwog   Aug 4, 8:09pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

However there's another point to consider and that is the fact that these tiny short term fluctuations in the bond market never lasting more than a year don't mean anything. If you're a speculator you might be able to make some money but the LONG TERM TREND has never changed.

This means ALL the action might simply be people playing off fed announcements before the rate returns smack to the middle of the 30 year trend.

34   tr6   Aug 4, 8:38pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

However for some reason you separate the two like they aren't related policies

I don't separate them. However, there is a significant difference between buying short term bonds and long term bonds.

Let's look at Europe. So you think in the normal market 10 year bonds should have negative yields as they did? The only way that's happening is that speculators are holding them to sell to the central bank.

35   tr6   Aug 4, 8:41pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

It did no such thing

You mean your chart shows the actual start date of Operation Twist vs eveyone front running the Fed. You think they simply decided to just start it on Sep 21, 2011 without talking about it for months.

36   iwog   Aug 4, 8:41pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

tr6 says

don't separate them. However, there is a significant difference between buying short term bonds and long term bonds.

Let's look at Europe. So you think in the normal market 10 year bonds should have negative yields as they did? The only way that's happening is that speculators are holding them to sell to the central bank.

NOTHING will interrupt the trend long term. That's the true market. In the short term the chart can and does do pretty much anything.

However that being said, and considering the long term trend, bonds are oversold not overbought. The risk is high and the rewards are limited. If the fed ever goes back to QE, it will be after the 10-year has fallen to 1% and we're in a recession.

37   tr6   Aug 4, 8:48pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

If the fed ever goes back to QE, it will be after the 10-year has fallen to 1% and we're in a recession.

If you are right we should have a flat yield curve sooner than later. Jobs data will force them to hike in December and two more times next year which puts us at 1.75-2.00 on the short end.

One thing that you don't seem to believe in is the default risk in any bonds. Many corporate and municipalities will default as soon as there is any significant slowdown in economy.

38   iwog   Aug 5, 12:17am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

tr6 says

One thing that you don't seem to believe in is the default risk in any bonds. Many corporate and municipalities will default as soon as there is any significant slowdown in economy.

Many municipal bonds are insured against default. It makes very little difference to the dividend.

39   tr6   Aug 5, 9:01am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Oh oh, Greenspan thinks there is a bond bubble: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/04/greenspan-bond-bubble-about-to-break-because-of-abnormally-low-interest-rates.html Ayn Rand disciple does not see that he helped create it.

40   SubOink   Aug 5, 11:03am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

SubOink says

What's your thought on this IWOG? I am not exactly a fan of Greenspan but if that was to happen, NAC would be a sell.

Loving NAC right now. Absolutely a buy.

Thanks for all the posts Iwog!!

41   iwog   Aug 5, 12:10pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

tr6 says

Oh oh, Greenspan thinks there is a bond bubble: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/04/greenspan-bond-bubble-about-to-break-because-of-abnormally-low-interest-rates.html Ayn Rand disciple does not see that he helped create it.

Greenspan has an Ayn Rand blind spot that can't conceive of any bad things coming from unlimited wealth concentration. The bond market is a mystery to him and always has been.

42   SubOink   Aug 6, 9:50am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

iwog says

However there's another point to consider and that is the fact that these tiny short term fluctuations in the bond market never lasting more than a year don't mean anything. If you're a speculator you might be able to make some money but the LONG TERM TREND has never changed.

This means ALL the action might simply be people playing off fed announcements before the rate returns smack to the middle of the 30 year trend.

So NAC could be 14 again in short term but long term we should see a NAC 17-18?

43   tr6   Aug 6, 12:41pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

SubOink says

So NAC could be 14 again in short term but long term we should see a NAC 17-18?

When NAC got below 14 last year, it was trading at 10% discount to NAV, now it's trading at 2% discount.

44   SubOink   Aug 8, 10:40am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

tr6 says

it was trading at 10% discount to NAV, now it's trading at 2% discount.

what does that mean?

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