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Democrats likely to lose Debbie Stabenow's Senate Seat in 2018

By Goran_K   Jul 24, 8:52am   3 links   1,406 views   63 comments   watch (1)   quote      

http://www.dailywire.com/news/18899/kid-rock-leading-michigan-senate-poll-hank-berrien#

A new poll conducted by Delphi Analytica reveals one the most amazing results in recent polling history: among those told to choose between the two candidates, musician Robert Ritchie, aka Kid Rock, who is highly successful and famous for his hard-party image, including songs revolving around heavy drug use, sex with prostitutes and strippers as well as being featured in sex tapes, and incumbent Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow, 54% chose Kid Rock and 46% chose Stabenow.

Looks like Michigan is going to be even harder for Democrats to take back. Decades of economic ruin under Democrat rule have given the GOP a huge boost in the state which turned red in November 2016.

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24   errc   Jul 25, 9:34am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Goran_K says

errc says

How do you figure?

What was the correct odds?

0%

You misunderstood the question. I didn't ask for your understanding of prediction markets, and forecasting odds.

I asked what were the correct odds?

If you felt there was %100 certainty, you should have been backing up the truck, especially when gambling markets were reflective of a 70%+ favorite

25   Goran_K   Jul 25, 9:34am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

errc says

I asked what were the correct odds?

0%

26   errc   Jul 25, 9:36am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Goran_K says

errc says

I asked what were the correct odds?

0%

How did you arrive at this number?

27   Goran_K   Jul 25, 9:39am     ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

errc says

How did you arrive at this number?

28   YesYNot   Jul 25, 9:39am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Goran_K says

0%

Out of curiosity, what is your reasoning for this?

edit: never mind. I see that you already answered. Do you think that elections are decided by land area?

29   Goran_K   Jul 25, 9:44am     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

YesYNot says

Do you think that elections are decided by land area?

No, the United States elects presidents using the electoral college and has done so since the formation of the country.

30   errc   Jul 25, 9:53am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

@Goran

How much did you wager on Trump? His gambling odds reflected ~ 30% chance of winning, and you had it at 100%

That's an all in play for any Capitalist Investor.

31   zzyzzx   Jul 25, 10:14am     ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike   quote    

YesYNot says

and how much is related to policy that could be replicated elsewhere without oil, gas

Given how low oil prices are right now, I would think that the Texas numbers would be even better if oil were not so reasonably priced right now.

32   Goran_K   Jul 25, 10:14am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

errc says

How much did you wager on Trump? His gambling odds reflected ~ 30% chance of winning, and you had it at 100%

That's an all in play for any Capitalist Investor.

I don't disclose my earnings from any venture. Just not classy.

33   errc   Jul 25, 10:17am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Goran_K says

errc says

How much did you wager on Trump? His gambling odds reflected ~ 30% chance of winning, and you had it at 100%

That's an all in play for any Capitalist Investor.

I don't disclose my earnings from any venture. Just not classy.

What odds did you get?

34   Goran_K   Jul 25, 10:18am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

errc says

What odds did you get?

Very profitable ones.

35   zzyzzx   Jul 25, 11:35am     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

36   YesYNot   Jul 25, 11:54am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

Goran_K says

No, the United States elects presidents using the electoral college and has done so since the formation of the country

That is true. It makes one wonder why you posted a map showing how counties voted instead of how states voted. The only reason a logical person would post that as rational for determining odds is if they thought that land area or counties determined elections.

It's a completely illogical argument that appeals to some peoples emotions. Trump liked handing these irrelevant maps out to visitors at the White House. How sad.

37   Goran_K   Jul 25, 11:56am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

YesYNot says

That is true. It makes one wonder why you posted a map showing how counties voted instead of how states voted. The only reason a logical person would post that as rational for determining odds is if they thought that land area or counties determined elections.

It's a completely illogical argument that appeals to some peoples emotions. Trump liked handing these irrelevant maps out to visitors at the White House. How sad.

I think it shows just how effective the Electoral College is at not concentrating power but diffusing it which was the wishes of the founders of the country.

Geniuses.

38   iwog   Jul 25, 11:59am     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

Goran_K says

I think it shows just how effective the Electoral College is at not concentrating power but diffusing it which was the wishes of the founders of the country.

I'm sure the founding fathers intended to diffuse power to cactus and prairie dogs.

That's all your map shows. You might as well include the Pacific ocean between California and Hawaii. It would be just as honest.

39   YesYNot   Jul 25, 12:00pm     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Goran_K says

I think it shows just how effective the Electoral College is at not concentrating power but diffusing it which was the wishes of the founders of the country.

That's a valid reason for posting the map. Why did you post it when asked how you arrived at Trump's odds of winning the election at 100%? It makes no sense in that context. It just provides a minor distraction while you avoided the question.

40   Goran_K   Jul 25, 12:02pm     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

iwog says

I'm sure the founding fathers intended to diffuse power to cactus and prairie dogs.

That's all your map shows. You might as well include the Pacific ocean between California and Hawaii. It would be just as honest.

If you don't like the system of government, you can try and get 38 states to agree with you. The founders even thought about little guys like you Iwog. You always have a voice.

41   Goran_K   Jul 25, 12:03pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

YesYNot says

That's a valid reason for posting the map. Why did you post it when asked how you arrived at Trump's odds of winning the election at 100%? It makes no sense in that context. It just provides a minor distraction while you avoided the question.

if that was my purpose, you have to admit, 15 post past, it was pretty effective.

42   errc   Jul 25, 12:06pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

Goran_K says

YesYNot says

That's a valid reason for posting the map. Why did you post it when asked how you arrived at Trump's odds of winning the election at 100%? It makes no sense in that context. It just provides a minor distraction while you avoided the question.

if that was my purpose, you have to admit, 15 post past, it was pretty effective.

I don't think anyone has forgotten that you dodged the question, because you're lying. Rather, it's being further scrutinized by others

43   Goran_K   Jul 25, 12:10pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

errc says

I don't think anyone has forgotten that you dodged the question, because you're lying. Rather, it's being further scrutinized by others

The actual original thread was discussing just how badly the situation for the DNC is at the moment, but then you guys decided to talk about some irrelevant 538 analysis that was completely wrong anyway.

But you're just doing what the DNC is doing, avoiding any discussion of the internal problems with the party. IMO, this is a good thing because it'll lead to more losses for the party. So continue, please.

44   YesYNot   Jul 25, 12:54pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

errc says

I don't think anyone has forgotten that you dodged the question

That's true. This all started with my original point that Trump's net disapproval is something like 16% at the moment. He's getting higher and higher disapproval's, so it's unlikely that the Republicans are going to win more seats in 2018. Nobody has come up with a legitimate argument against that. Goran said that the odds of Trump winning were 100%, which is an absurdity. Then, when asked for a reason, we got a map that Goran later admitted was a total non-sequitur. The thread is just proof that the TADS are irrational.

45   Patrick   Jul 26, 12:23pm     ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike   quote    

1636 says

Trump's net disapproval is something like 16% at the moment.

Only 16%?

From reading the mainstream press you'd think it was 116%. There is never a single positive story about him in NY Times, WaPo, CNN, NPR etc.

But they are arrogantly disconnected from the majority of Americans.

46   iwog   Jul 26, 12:31pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

1 says

From reading the mainstream press you'd think it was 116%. There is never a single positive story about him in NY Times, WaPo, CNN, NPR etc.

Come on Patrick, for fuck sake Donald Trump spent the entire week ripping apart his own AG. How exactly do you spin this to be a positive story???

Also the G20, Donald Trump accomplished nothing and made Putin look like a hero and spent most of the time on his cell phone. He didn't even bring up North Korean even though most Western nations were willing to back him on an initiative. How does this play in the press as anything other than negative?

I've made this point before and I'll make it again. Nearly 100% of news articles on child molesters are negative. Something must be done!!!

47   georgeliberte   Jul 26, 12:32pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

"heavy drug use, sex with prostitutes and strippers", sounds like a Republican. On the other hand, Republicans do it on the DL.

48   Patrick   Jul 26, 12:38pm     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

1641 says

Come on Patrick, for fuck sake Donald Trump spent the entire week ripping apart his own AG. How exactly do you spin this to be a positive story???

Sure, kinda bizarre, and yet irrelevant to his popularity.

Why did Trump get elected?

When the press honestly answers that question (and no, it's not "racism" or "fascism" or any ism at all) then they will begin to regain their credibility.

But it's too embarrassing for the press to admit that they are a core part of the problem (arrogant elites which have only contempt for real working people) so they won't answer honestly.

49   YesYNot   Jul 26, 12:40pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

1 says

Only 16%?

It's pretty terrible when compared to other presidents. The only person who did as bad as Trump was Ford, who wasn't elected and pardoned Nixon. Clinton's approval numbers were bad too, but not as badly as Trump.

If you put the difference in terms of the percent of people who approve, it's about 45% more people disapprove than approve.

Additionally, there are 11 states that Trump won where more people disapprove than approve. That's a lot of states. He's going to have to turn things around if he wants another term. I'm guessing a lot of people voted to give him a chance, b/c they were so disgusted with the alternative. They are not happy with the result.

50   iwog   Jul 26, 12:41pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

1 says

Why did Trump get elected?

When the press honestly answers that question (and no, it's not "racism" or "fascism" or any ism at all) then they will begin to regain their credibility.

But it's too embarrassing for the press to admit that they are a core part of the problem (arrogant elites which have only contempt for real working people) so they won't answer honestly.

Yes the press is infected with lunatic SJWs who are pursuing an agenda instead of strictly reporting the news. I get it. It makes me angry and I'm doing something about it behind the scenes. (hint: movie coming)

That being said, Donald Trump is doing far more damage than the press is.

51   Patrick   Jul 26, 12:48pm     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

I agree that Trump is a bit dangerous and perhaps not particularly competent, but he is a refreshing break from the utter domination of all public discourse by those arrogant elites and their laws which tell people which pronouns they can and cannot use.

52   iwog   Jul 26, 1:29pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

1 says

but he is a refreshing break from the utter domination of all public discourse by those arrogant elites and their laws which tell people which pronouns they can and cannot use.

I see Trump isn't doing anything about it and I know for a fact he ran on the fake wage discrepancy.

If Trump isn't going to do anything about SJW madness, why is he the answer here?

53   Goran_K   Jul 26, 1:53pm     ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike   quote    

1641 says

I see Trump isn't doing anything about it and I know for a fact he ran on the fake wage discrepancy.

If Trump isn't going to do anything about SJW madness, why is he the answer here?

That's what people don't realize about the Sessions spat. Trump is looking to push Sessions out because he's not pursuing the swamp monsters (Debbie Wasserman, Clintons, etc). To get real change in Washington, one of these over grown monstrosities has got to do prison time. Imagine if Hillary Clinton got a 10 year sentence for mishandling intelligence or obstruction? That swamp monsters would flee (like Debbie Wasserman's IT guy), or they would change their ways.

Sessions needs to be out because he's too passive. We need some head knockers to change things around.

54   Patrick   Jul 26, 2:40pm     ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike   quote    

1641 says

If Trump isn't going to do anything about SJW madness, why is he the answer here?

Today's remarks on the military not being a place for trannies is a good start.

20442 says

Sessions needs to be out because he's too passive. We need some head knockers to change things around.

Also because he seems focused on benefiting the prison industry by aggressively prosecuting marijuana usage. Makes me suspect he's getting some kind of financial or political kickback for that. Marijuana is truly the least of America's problems.

55   PeopleUnited   Jul 26, 7:25pm     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

1 says

1641 says

If Trump isn't going to do anything about SJW madness, why is he the answer here?

Today's remarks on the military not being a place for trannies is a good start.

20442 says

Sessions needs to be out because he's too passive. We need some head knockers to change things around.

Also because he seems focused on benefiting the prison industry by aggressively prosecuting marijuana usage. Makes me suspect he's getting some kind of financial or political kickback for that. Marijuana is truly the least of America's problems.

I couldn't agree more Patrick, er I mean 1. Today was a good start for putting SJW on notice.

As for marijuana, the only problem we have in this country with the herb is that it is too expensive and the supply is too limited. We need more Mary Jane!

And this comment comes from someone who has never inhaled.

56   PeopleUnited   Jul 26, 7:28pm     ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Just think in a few years we could see Stuart Smalley in the Senate with Kid Rock the Majority leader and THE ROCK as commander in chief!

57   Patrick   Jul 26, 7:49pm     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

2192 says

I couldn't agree more Patrick, er I mean 1. The only problem we have in this country with Marijuana is that it is too expensive and the supply is too limited. We need more Mary Jane!

I'm not saying that smoking pot is a virtue, but as a vice, it's definitely minor. Less harmful than alcohol.

58   PeopleUnited   Jul 26, 9:23pm     ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote    

1 says

2192 says

I couldn't agree more Patrick, er I mean 1. The only problem we have in this country with Marijuana is that it is too expensive and the supply is too limited. We need more Mary Jane!

I'm not saying that smoking pot is a virtue, but as a vice, it's definitely minor. Less harmful than alcohol.

Cannabis oils are less harmful than excessive alcohol, but smoking is bad for your lungs and cardiovascular system. I don't think even smoking in moderation is a good idea.

59   BayAreaObserver   Jul 27, 5:55am     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote    

I agree that Trump is a bit dangerous and perhaps not particularly competent

That's kind of like saying those 10,000 jobs that U.S. Steel "could" add the 13,000 Foxconn "could" add then comparing him to the likes of Marissa Mayer, Eddie Lampert, Steve Ballmer in business and George W. Bush as president with an administration to match.

Then topping it off with saying a Dart-Throwing Monkey Beats a Great Value Investor.

At least your finally starting to come around from a few months ago so there's hope...

60   Goran_K   Jul 27, 8:35am     ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Patrick says

Also because he seems focused on benefiting the prison industry by aggressively prosecuting marijuana usage. Makes me suspect he's getting some kind of financial or political kickback for that. Marijuana is truly the least of America's problems.

I agree. I honestly don't care about Marijuana, and believe it should be legalized. It makes no sense to have alcohol legal, but ban Weed. Legalizing it would also have the effect of cutting the legs off the Mexican drug cartels, and the more they are bled dry, the better.

The AG should be concentrating getting people like Loretta Lynch, Clinton, or Holder into prison so the rest of the swamp gets put on notice.

61   Booger   Aug 3, 3:01pm     ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike   quote    

62   Onvacation   Aug 3, 3:28pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

Goran_K says

Wow! How did Alaska get so blue when they can see Russia?

63   BlueSardine   Aug 3, 3:33pm     ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote    

There's no way the M1 Abrams can take on the T14 Armata with only one fixed gear...

Patrick says

Today's remarks on the military not being a place for trannies is a good start

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