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Trump Immigration Crackdown Leads to Higher Construction Wages

By zzyzzx   2017 Aug 7, 11:47am 738 views   9 comments   watch   quote      

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/08/02/texas-home-builders-relying-on-immigrant-labor-feel-effects-immigrant-crackdown.html

NAHB says the problems started when the recession hit and domestic construction workers dropped out of the market to find other jobs. At the same time, immigrant workers went back to their home countries. But as the economy has picked up and the construction industry has heated up, those workers have remained missing.

The problem is compounded in hot real estate markets where more and more housing projects are finding fewer and fewer workers. In places like North Texas, recently, it's been a triple whammy.

"Half of the workers in construction in Texas are undocumented," Marek said. "We do hear that there are a lot of undocumented workers that are leaving the state, going to other states that don't have the anti-immigrant sentiment and many of them are going back to Mexico."

Ted Wilson with Residential Strategies, Inc. has run the numbers.

"We've seen direct construction costs climb by over 30 percent," Wilson said, "and a lot of that is directly attributed to what builders are having to pay their subs and trades in wages."

Meaning, with so few workers out there, construction companies have had to pay more to attract them, which adds to the cost of a home.

1 zzyzzx   2017 Aug 7, 11:48am   ↑ like (5)   ↑ dislike (5)     quote      

Why do Democrats hate American construction workers?

2 zzyzzx   2017 Aug 7, 11:50am   ↑ like (5)   ↑ dislike (5)     quote      

Here's to the re-emerging middle class!

3 TwoScoopsMcGee   2017 Aug 7, 12:11pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote      

Opportunity for Native-Born Americans: AKA the Deploreables, aka the ones told to "just accept it and shove their dreams up their ass and die of Pain Killer abuse" by the Elite Establishment.

4 iwog   2017 Aug 7, 12:17pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote      

zzyzzx says

Trump Immigration Crackdown Leads to Higher Construction Wages

It's absolutely incredible how much Trump accomplished before he actually took office huh!! If I was cynical I'd suspect that the immigration crackdown had nothing to do with it and it's simply the worker shortage that started early last year but of course it can't be that right?

On an unrelated topic, the economy is peaking and we'll be in a severe recession/depression very shortly. 2-3 years tops. Trump will not politically survive it.

5 Quigley   2017 Aug 7, 12:45pm   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote      

iwog says

On an unrelated topic, the economy is peaking and we'll be in a severe recession/depression very shortly. 2-3 years tops. Trump will not politically survive it.

As this is a prediction, what criteria did you apply to arrive at it? We can't know the worth of your thinking unless you explain yourself a bit.

6 iwog   2017 Aug 7, 1:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote      

Quigley says

As this is a prediction, what criteria did you apply to arrive at it? We can't know the worth of your thinking unless you explain yourself a bit.

I've written extensively on the topic but if you look at the above graph, you can see the opening and layoff rate meeting at about 2.5%, exactly like the 2001 and 2008 recessions. The stock market is currently a bubble and according to my bubble model, is in the final acceleration phase which can't last longer than 18-24 months. Retail is about to die a violent death. Although self-driving cars might be 5 years away, hiring will front run this by a few years resulting in huge layoffs in the trucking and other driving industries. One of the most cyclical consumer activities, car buying, runs in 10-year cycles and will be peaking around 2020. There is a laundry list of other reasons but I'm so sure that I'm starting to give my tenants notice because I'm selling a lot next year.

However the most shocking thing and something that might explain why Logan isn't here anymore is this:

If the decline over the last 3 months holds up, and I will be watching it very carefully, this is the end end. The last act. The final curtain call. This particular statistic is an amazingly smooth curve and is a long term speedometer that measures the health of entire nations. Here's what happens when it peaks:

You get a 20-year long Great Depression and you never recover.

7 iwog   2017 Aug 7, 1:12pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote      

Here's your stock market bubble. BTW the peak will exceed the prior peaks before crashing.

8 Quigley   2017 Aug 7, 6:30pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote      

Thanks for explaining. I concur with the idea that retail is in trouble, though I think it will be only scaled back or changed in fundamental ways, not eliminated. This is for the simple reason that women LOVE to shop! As men, we consistently downplay the importance of shopping to women.

I'm not sure about the stock market. We may see a fall, but I doubt we will see as huge a correction as 2008. If we do then great! I will be buying as much as possible to take advantage of the absolutely inevitable upswing. Again, this by itself won't cause a major recession. The last one didn't either. It was the crashing of the short term paper market that caught retailers flat footed because their business models depended on it. This had a domino effect which suppressed demand and caused widespread layoffs.

Housing is pretty solid, although overwrought markets like the Bay Area might have trouble should the tech industry move hubs for economic reasons.

Finally, the working age population graph is leveling off and about to drop. I concur, but assert that this is the Boomer retirement causing the demographic shift.

9 iwog   2017 Aug 7, 6:34pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote      

Quigley says

Finally, the working age population graph is leveling off and about to drop. I concur, but assert that this is the Boomer retirement causing the demographic shift.

You're directly contradicting Logan who spent a million hours trying to convince everyone that a prime working force is about to come of age and replace the boomers.

Although I strongly disagreed with his conclusion, I didn't really know or care if his data was correct because I didn't think it was important. I do not think that the baby boomers retiring should result in a decrease in nominal numbers of people employed.

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