About marcus

marcus

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Registered Mar 23, 2009

marcus's most recent comments:

  • On Wed, 29 Jun 2016, 7:58pm PDT in This shouldn't even be!, marcus said:

    "7 Times Nate Silver Was Hilariously Wrong About Donald Trump"

    So 5 of the 7 were august 2015, or earlier. Who wasn't wrong about Trump back then (I mean of intelligent literate folks). Then one in November 2015, and then the last on in Jan or Feb ? Big deal. Unlikely things occasionally happen.

  • On Wed, 29 Jun 2016, 3:41pm PDT in Global Yields Are Falling!, marcus said:

    iwog says

    That's how it works for the average guy, perhaps someone buying bonds for retirement, and pretty much the majority of the world before 1980

    Okay, but replace 1980 with 2002 or so. Because coupon rates (10 year and 30 year) reflected inflation plus a real return until at least then. In fact it didn't get really whack until the crash in 2008. Of course one can argue that they are still working and that the inflation premium is negative. That is that they are pricing in deflation.

    It would be painful for the U.S. government to pay back it's debt if deflation is occurring. Then again, if they can roll over debt at negative interest rates ? Maybe not so much.

    I don't know that such a scenario is even possible. What happens to real assets in such a situation, where people are being paid to borrow money ? Does that mean they bid prices up, while rents are decreasing due to the deflation ?

    Like I said, something is broken.

  • On Wed, 29 Jun 2016, 2:42pm PDT in Trump always leading the topic. Run and talk now you little beeches!, marcus said:

    Dream on foo

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