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San Diego, CA
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In United States
Registered Sep 07, 2010
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sobmaz's most recent comments:
- On 5 Sep 2012
in
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sobmaz said:
Ruki says
Like it worked in the 1970s, when it was last done here as you proposed.
Actually, more like in the 80's under Reagan. Repubics like to forget about Reagan harping on about Carters HUGE 50 billion dollar deficit and then he quadruples it in less than 8 years! Reagan's deficit was 4 times worse than Carters worst year yet Repubics always changed the subject when it was brought up.
If Obama was allowed to expand Bush's last deficit year by a multiple of 4 like Reagan did, he could show this country a party too! - On 19 Apr 2012
in
What's next in financial markets?,
sobmaz said:
World Central Banks have shown that since money can be created out of thing air, a collapse would only be temporary if it happened at all. It could be a short term trade but long term plenty of money for all means rising prices.
As far as China leaving the market for US Bonds? Who cares, the FED can and will take up the slack by pushing a few buttons. - On 19 Apr 2012
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What's next in financial markets?,
sobmaz said:
In 2009, I thought a person could make a killing shorting bonds too, luckily, I did not act. Since then, we have learned that the FED can do QE to infinity and with impunity as long as the word economy remains weak. I would not short bonds.
Gold. Long term, all commodities are a buy, but due to short term fluctuations, gold could fall back to 700.00 before it goes higher. I have been in gold since 2002 and am trimming my position but only because I have done so well. I am not saying Gold will go to 700 only that it COULD, but I do think it is going to 1200ish for awhile and then upwards.
Stocks.... I would definitely buy stocks. The value of money will always be protected from inflation in the long haul by stocks.
Inflation and commodities. It is true QEasings are not necessarily inflationary, the money must leak into the general economy for inflation to take hold, but I really think that is besides the point. It is like someone dumping lighter fluid on wood with no fire, so you dump more and more lighter fluid, yet no fire. You suddenly get a spark and all that fuel you added to the wood is immediately consumed in an out of control burst. Yes, the Central Bankers say they will remove the fuel once the fire or the economy takes off. Can you picture removing the fuel in the analogy? I think it would be similar in practice.
The worlds Central Banks currently have the luxury to add fuel to the fire since there is no spark, but that spark will come. The fact of the matter is there are not enough natural resources to give everyone on earth an American standard of living. The Cental Bankers have no natural limits to the amount of printing that can be done, but the Earth does have a limit on what it can provide. Commodities are a long term winner due to unlimited cash available to the masses, EVENTUALLY. Rising interest rates due to inflation are not a given, especially with what we have seen with the known and proven intervention from world central banks. Inflation can be culled by messing with the statistics, rising interest rates can be thwarted by further QEs.
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