About watchingmarcitz


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Registered Apr 29, 2009

watchingmarcitz's most recent comments:

  • On Sat, 2 Jun 2012, 12:15am PDT in Facebook Flop and Real Estate Values in and around Palo Alto, watchingmarcitz said:

    Nice comments and lets also not forget that
    - many people who work for Facebook already own homes as many came from other successful startups like Google. Home ownership is 65% nationally.  If you go uber-conservative and say its only half that here (younger and transient crowd) then 32.5% already own homes.
    - Even if those home owners trade up that means a house becomes available as they move out so it's not a stress on supply.
    - Facebook knew what it had a long time ago and gave relatively small option packages to bulk of later employees who would give up their pinkie finger to work there so the windfalls may not be as broad as everyone thinks.
    - the early employees who have a lot of options are probably not buying the same house most people on this list are looking for so they aren't "in the market" from our perspective.
    - I know this is sacrilege to say but not everyone wants to own a house or even stay here and to build on the points above many may choose (especially the younger employees) to move up to the city which is cheaper and more interesting if you're single. Or even move somewhere else or spend their money on a Fisker (which means they'll never be in the real estate market because they'll never be able to reach an open house)

  • On Tue, 5 Jan 2010, 1:52am PST in What's Palo Alto house future, watchingmarcitz said:

    So as the author of the article at http://reallyfuckedhomeowner.com/2009/06/23/why-palo-alto-housing-will-fall-30-or-more/ let me sum it up this way.

    You either believe that Palo Alto prices were driven by the same forces that drove every other market in the US or theyh weren't. Its as simple as that.

    If they were driven by the same forces on the way up they will be driven by the same forces on the way down.

    If they weren't driven by the same forces on the way up then they won't on the way down. BUT if you believe that then you have to ask yourself why they (coincidentally at the same time as the rest of the market was being driven by all those other forces) did Palo Alto break out of its own trend line? Did it become that much better a place to live in 2002 than it was in 1999?

    Take a look at this graph and tell me you actually still believe that Palo Alto was acting independently (see the San Francisco and San Jose lines for proxies) (the same picture is posted, hopefully, with this post)


  • On Mon, 4 Jan 2010, 3:04pm PST in What's Palo Alto house future, watchingmarcitz said:

    All the things you say are true but were true BEFORE the housing bubble and at that time Palo Alto Real Estate increased at 4-8% per year. In 2000 it started increasing at 20-50% per year so that delta MUST be driven by the same forces and thus will be succeptible to them on the way down as well.
    Why did a house in downtown Palo Alto sell for $300 per sq ft in 1998 and now is $1100? Wouldn't it have been bid up then by all those dot.com millionaires with everyone moving here? Also why did housing prices continue to go up AFTER the dot-com bust when no one had money (relatively speaking) and people started leaving the area?
    Also why did people move to Vallejo in the first place? Because they couldn't afford Palo Alto so they were willing to make the sacrafice. As the outlying areas (and this applies to a much more reasonable Hayward or Fremont as well) fall in price don't you think people would be willing to still live there and commute if it means getting more house for your money? The price in Palo Alto will come down. it just takes time. Notice that all the artilces are turning towards what will hurt the high-end?
    BTW, Palo Alto lost 20-30% of its value from 1992-1996 so its been done before.

    Oh and a few moderately well-to-do friends of mine moved to San Jose because of the worse schools. Because of the worse schools they got a nicer house and used the additional savings to send their kids to private school. So they got GREAT schools and a really nice house.

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