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In United States
Registered May 21, 2009

cc0's most recent comments:

  • On 13 May 2013 in The spectacular failure of Austrian economics, cc0 said:

    iwog says

    How is a consumer supposed to get that cash to drive inflation?

    Well, firstly, I want to reassert my definition of inflation: an increase in the money supply. There is "guaranteed" inflation of 2-3%/yr.

    How do consumers get access to idle capital is a good question. What we saw last time was via mortgages. Previous to that, for many it was leveraged stock purchases. Next time it will be something else - forex perhaps. That's too detailed to predict accurately, but do you doubt it will manifest itself at all? The safest of all possible worlds is probably through inheritance, which rarely becomes a bubble.

    Oh, and there's also tax & spend.

    iwog says

    There isn't going to be any inflation.

    I think the argument though is about hyperinflation. Remember that banks are getting $85B/mo -- that's 30 years' worth of NASA every month. This is all available for leverage. Will banks be so stupid and the Fed so negligent to allow that to multiply 10:1 or 20:1? I would certainly hope not, but I don't think all that will be unwound in 3 years and there will be another election by then.

    But I do think it's safe to predict that prices are not going to skyrocket. On the one hand we have cheap energy again. On the other, food prices will continue to increase until GMO seed patents expire, and climate change remains a wildcard.

  • On 13 May 2013 in The spectacular failure of Austrian economics, cc0 said:

    thunderlips11 says

    His prediction was: "IMMEDIATE" runaway inflation and a massive flight from the dollar.

    Dangerous waters here, but is it wrong?

    On its face, yes, clearly. But: Imagine if only the U.S. banks were impacted. Because this latest collapse was truly global, the dollar became a safe haven. If the collapse were limited to the U.S. (which was a more likely scenario in 1991, let's assume) people would be fleeing the dollar. Low dollar value is what people generally think of when they hear the word "inflation".

    Then there's the secondary effects of printing (er, "easing"). Right now banks are hoarding cash (to the tune of $85 billion/mo) but there's also some $3 trillion sitting idle. Given the graying of the U.S. it's not so easy to predict what's going to happen with all this cash, but it is easy to be wary of what could.

  • On 11 May 2013 in The spectacular failure of Austrian economics, cc0 said:

    Reality says

    religious exemption

    Irrelevant. Generally available exemption is exemption and neither is monopoly.

    Reality says

    is not voluntary but coerced condition for holding certain jobs.

    Holding certain jobs is also a voluntary choice. This argument can go on forever. Union contracts are ones engaged in between the aggregators of financial and of labor capital (excluding public employee unions). Union or not, you play the game as it's defined - you're unlikely to be making the rules in either camp and everyone else is just sausage.

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