About ThreeBays


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Registered Feb 14, 2011

ThreeBays's most recent comments:

  • On Tue, 25 Aug 2015, 7:52am PDT in 46% Think Hillary Should Suspend Her Campaign..., ThreeBays said:

    Surprise surprise, majority of Republicans think the leading Democratic nominee should suspend her campaign (insert reasons).

  • On Mon, 24 Aug 2015, 11:32pm PDT in The 2015 housing market and my prediction for 2016, ThreeBays said:

    iwog says

    This graph should make it extremely obvious that inventory isn't growing or shrinking based on sales versus listings. Also I don't know where you're getting your weekly data from.

    The data is available on Redfin. You can see sales records with dates, and listings with # days on Redfin. Simple arithmetic, if more homes are coming on the market than are being sold or pulled off market then the # for sale will increase over time.

    Also the County aggregate is hiding an important fact. The most desirable areas are the ones where listings are growing Y-o-Y.

    # Homes for sale vs Prev Year
    Palo Alto up 9.8%
    Mountain View up 82.5%
    Los Altos up 83.3%
    Los Altos Hills up 38.5%
    Sunnyvale up 49.5%
    Santa Clara up 62.4%
    West San Jose Up 40.7%
    Saratoga up 88.7%
    Campbell up 7.4%
    Cambrian Park up 24.8%
    Almaden Valley up 10.9%
    Evergreen up 22.2%

    Los Gatos down 2.6%

  • On Sat, 22 Aug 2015, 10:45am PDT in The 2015 housing market and my prediction for 2016, ThreeBays said:

    Everything I said is from Redfin. Please check the facts.

    iwog says

    I've gone through and counted every home for sale in a Redfin coverage area and they are spot on perfect.

    Then I did the same thing with realtor.com/movoto data, which share the same database, and they had numerous listings that have already been sold counted as for sale. I have never found any fault with Redfin data which is why I use them. I'm not sure where you got the 1906 number from.

    Redfin's listing data is the most accurate. What I'm disputing is their "Market Trends".

    The 1908 number is what Redfin says is for sale. Don't know if 1906 was my typo, or it changed since I looked at it. https://www.redfin.com/county/345/CA/Santa-Clara-County/filter#!v=8&sst=&region_id=345&region_type=5&market=sanfrancisco

    iwog says

    ThreeBays says

    Really? The graph shows that sales sales peaked in May, dropped ~30% in June, and dropped ~10% in July.

    You're confusing sales with listings. They aren't the same thing. A house can be for sale in May, June, AND July but an actual recorded sale only happens once. A house can be taken off the market, put back on the market, or flipped. These will change the numbers and cause perceived, but not actual discrepancies.

    No, I am using # sold. Can't be simpler than that. Check https://www.redfin.com/county-recently-sold/345/CA/Santa-Clara-County, you can see every sale.

    iwog says

    ThreeBays says

    I provided you with data based on actual listings and sales which show that inventory is growing by over 10% per week.

    This is absolutely false. Inventory is the actual number of houses offered for sale. Period. There's no way that inventory is growing by 10% per week and I think that assertion is ridiculous. Inventory in Santa Clara County is about the same as this time last year with the important difference that it is DROPPING instead of RISING.

    Week 34
    New homes 420
    Closed 248

    Week 33
    New homes 456
    Closed 330

    There are more new homes than are selling. This will make inventory go up unless houses are taken off the market.

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