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justme


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Registered Jun 16, 2005


justme's most recent comments:

  • On 26 Jan 2015 in Solar Power is the near future of energy, justme said:

    iwog says

    At 1% faster than new demand, the entire world will be electric in 100 years and fossil fuels will be obsolete.

    Not even close. Let's run the numbers IEA says world total energy consumption growth has slowed to 2% increase per year (1). Furthermore, solar PV is 0.85% of world electricity production in 2014(2). Now, using 2014 energy consumption as the unit of measure, and assuming solar PV grows at 1% point above the 2% overall growth rate, we get that solar energy generation in 100 years will be

    0.0085*(1.03**100) = 0.163 (in units of 2014 consumption)

    whereas the total energy demand will grow to

    1.00*(1.02**100) = 7.24 (in units of 2014 consumption)

    This means that after 100 years, solar PV covers

    0.163/7.24 = 0.0225 = 2.25%

    of the total energy demand. So I'll wager that your "1%" statement is way off what is really required. This is what happens when people try to prove things with numbers that are acquired via rectal extraction (or "pulled out of your ass", to use a more colloquial phrase).

    PS: The actual growth rate to cover the gap in 100 years, assuming 2% overall growth is near 7%.

    % 0.0085*(1.07**100)
    7.37558876731454

    PS2: Since (1.07**100)=867.7, that also means we have to pave over 867x as much area with solar panels as we already have. And no, the efficiency of the panels will not increase much. They are already at 20%.

    REFERENCES:

    (1) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption

    (2) http://cleantechnica.com/2014/04/09/iea-solar-pv-meets-1-electric-demand-15-nations/

  • On 26 Jan 2015 in Solar Power is the near future of energy, justme said:

    iwog says

    I said no such thing!!!!! I said:

    iwog says

    All it has to do is grow faster than new demand on fossil fuels and we'll be "saved".

    So what you MEANT to say was that solar PV electricity has to grow faster than, and has to DISPLACE, new demand on fossil fuels. Ok, I accept the clarification, even if I had to polish the clarification a bit myself. I'll get back to the statement about growth shortly.

  • On 26 Jan 2015 in Solar Power is the near future of energy, justme said:

    iwog says

    Sorry but that's just bullshit. The price has plummeted.

    For computer chips, polysilicon was never a large fraction of the material cost, because it is used sparingly per function. The reason for the spike in "poly" price (and subsequent crash) was the increased demand for poly from the solar industry.

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