On 26 Jan 2015
in
Solar Power is the near future of energy,
justme said:
iwog says
At 1% faster than new demand, the entire world will be electric in 100 years and fossil fuels will be obsolete.
Not even close. Let's run the numbers IEA says world total energy consumption growth has slowed to 2% increase per year (1). Furthermore, solar PV is 0.85% of world electricity production in 2014(2). Now, using 2014 energy consumption as the unit of measure, and assuming solar PV grows at 1% point above the 2% overall growth rate, we get that solar energy generation in 100 years will be
0.0085*(1.03**100) = 0.163 (in units of 2014 consumption)
whereas the total energy demand will grow to
1.00*(1.02**100) = 7.24 (in units of 2014 consumption)
This means that after 100 years, solar PV covers
0.163/7.24 = 0.0225 = 2.25%
of the total energy demand. So I'll wager that your "1%" statement is way off what is really required. This is what happens when people try to prove things with numbers that are acquired via rectal extraction (or "pulled out of your ass", to use a more colloquial phrase).
PS: The actual growth rate to cover the gap in 100 years, assuming 2% overall growth is near 7%.
% 0.0085*(1.07**100)
7.37558876731454
PS2: Since (1.07**100)=867.7, that also means we have to pave over 867x as much area with solar panels as we already have. And no, the efficiency of the panels will not increase much. They are already at 20%.
REFERENCES:
(1) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
(2) http://cleantechnica.com/2014/04/09/iea-solar-pv-meets-1-electric-demand-15-nations/