| P2D2 
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Registered Jul 07, 2009
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P2D2's most recent comments:
- On 30 Aug 2010
in
prime areas in bay area will never see a dramatic reduction in price,
P2D2 said:
iwog says
There isn’t going to be a 50% decline. You’re predicting an event that is not only unprecedented in history, but will make the United States housing market the ghetto of the first world.
Nothing unprecedented in history. Just because you cannot think about it does not mean it is going to be unprecedented.
Let's talk about previous bubble in bay area. 900 University Ave, Palo Alto. This is one of those mansions (read the description in zillow) rich people buy and live. Price history is incomplete in zillow, so you need to check out redfin.
1990 purchase price: $2.4M.
When this guy bought it in 1990, did he think about 30% loss?
But it just happened.
1993 sale price: $1.65M
Again, when people have so much money, it works both way - profit or loss. - On 30 Aug 2010
in
prime areas in bay area will never see a dramatic reduction in price,
P2D2 said:
iwog says
There’s about 300% more money in the world now than in 1995. Between 1995 and 2010 there has been 43% worth of inflation in the CPI. The number of billionaires in the United States has tripled since 1995. The number of millionaires has exploded since then as well. Even the average wage for workers is up 50% between 1995 and 2010.
How in hell is real estate supposed to fall back to 1995 when nothing else is?
It's pretty simple. If there are so many billionaires and there 300% more money in the world, they would be ready load or unload anything when they need to. And that includes real estate too. Agassi sold his Tiburon home for $3M loss. If people have so much money, they would not care about loss either.
You have a faith (and hope) that rich people have more attachment towards real estate than any other investment. They don't. If one of those rich families have a divorce - their home will be in market next day. - On 30 Aug 2010
in
prime areas in bay area will never see a dramatic reduction in price,
P2D2 said:
Serpentor says
lets just keep that train of thought going and ask: why won’t rent in Fremont go down?
Two years back you could not find this kind of rental below $3000 in Monta Vista neighborhood. Yes, rental price has gone down already.
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