About hrhjuliet

hrhjuliet


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In United States
Registered Feb 29, 2012

hrhjuliet's most recent comments:

  • On 18 Sep 2014 in My first real estate bear thread (ever), hrhjuliet said:

    Well, we are just guessing and betting really.

  • On 18 Sep 2014 in My first real estate bear thread (ever), hrhjuliet said:

    Heraclitusstudent says

    hrhjuliet says

    That is my main question: What is a safe option? The numbers are unusual across all investments. If we are about to take a nose dive, let's say in 2017, what would you do to keep yourself afloat?

    Stay invested 100% in stocks till the top, then swiftly move everything to gov bonds, then at the bottom move everything back to stocks.

    That's safe.

    The key of course is to correctly time top and bottom.

    In the absence of knowing this, you could progressively shift more and more to gov bonds, after you feel the market had a good runup/bubble, then in reverse in the deep of a recession/crisis.

    Such a difficult game to play, but yes, a prudent choice. It makes me nervous though, I'm not a gambler, so I don't enjoy the game at all.

  • On 18 Sep 2014 in My first real estate bear thread (ever), hrhjuliet said:

    iwog says

    In the short run, an argument can be made that interest rates are jostled by all sorts of factors.

    In the long run, there is only one thing I can come up with to explain why rate decline since 1980 is a straight line. In fact it's almost too straight. ridiculously straight.

    Why do you think that it is so straight, and for so long?

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