About CDon

CDon


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Registered Mar 08, 2012

CDon's most recent comments:

  • On 22 Jan 2015 in The New Pat Net -Impeccable Timing, CDon said:

    smaulgld says

    SF is a boom bust town and this round is very similar to the dot com, gold rush and other booms and busts the city has endured.

    I understand. And to your point, we see that .com bust in the data as SF dropped approx. 7% from Apr 2001 to Jan 2002.

    http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-10-city-composite-home-price-index

    -7% in 10 months is nothing to sneeze at - not by the investor, or the homeowner - so long as you got the timing pretty close.

    Still, if that's all we see now, we only get down to low 180s which isn't much solace for the renter/ potential buyer who heeded your first warning at 173 (saying nothing of the bears of yesteryear who first warned him at 118 5 years ago).

    So back to the question, I guess that's it then? Another 7% drop is the target on our CS chart? For the investor with impeccable timing, that's not bad.

    But for the patnetter who wants to move on w life is this the target then? The lack of impeccable timing has thusfar hosed him pretty badly. Is your target here so severe a drop as to justify the additional waiting?

    Again, just cause you are putting it out there, how do these strong words translate to the CS chart. Are you looking at -5% nominally? -20% nominally? Real declines/Nominal Increases? Just curious as to your best guess.

  • On 22 Jan 2015 in The New Pat Net -Impeccable Timing, CDon said:

    smaulgld says

    San Francisco tech companies with no earnings and multi billion dollar market caps are partially responsible for the massive increase in housing prices in the bay area.

    When the stock market finally collapses there will be massive layoffs and the housing market will nose dive.

    Patnet will chronicle it all.

    Wow - strong words there... I guess for the "whats the best investment" there really is no rest for the weary - its a lifelong quest - its never over.

    But what about the renter/ potential homeowner who gets terrified by all he reads here and wonders "I don't want to rent forever - when can I just buy and move on with my life"?

    http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-10-city-composite-home-price-index

    Far as I can tell, Case Shiller SF bottomed approx. 5 years ago at 119

    It was at 173 (June 2013) when you first arrived and warned of a crash.

    Today, its at 196...

    So what for that poor guy? After 5+ years of renting and hoping, should he double down, waiting for nominal prices to smash below the 2009 levels so as to justify all this additional waiting? Or is this too extreme in your guestimate?

    Put another way, while we all know that nominal prices can decline, is CS 118 off the table? If he decides to heed your warning and wait some more, what sort of nominal CS figure can he expect to see?

  • On 20 Jan 2015 in Chinese 3-D print mansion, CDon said:

    curious2 says

    Wow, a tovbot trifecta: the headline has nothing to do with the link, which in turn has almost nothing to do with the blurb text, which is an advertisement. Way to go tovbot! Automating new dimensions of not-quite-but-almost-spam.

    Lol. With this site changing, I gotta ask, does anyone know anything about "Tovbot"?

    It really is a person right? Its not really some sort of aggretator service that just has a human sounding name?

    An astounding 12,000+ posts, yet under 100 comments. How is this possible?

    What was/is his motivation to post? Is he paid by Patrick?

    Why are so many of the headlines purposefully misleading? Does he/it not care about his/its credibility?

    These are genuine questions and I am sure I am not the only one who is curious. Seriously, does anyone know anything?

    PS. Peter Tovarich, if you are in fact a real person, feel free to answer too (although I doubt you will).

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