About curious2

curious2

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Registered Mar 17, 2012

"Grumpy Cat makes two appearances in the name of marriage equality -- because everyone deserves the right to be married and miserable"

curious2's most recent comments:

  • On Tue, 9 Feb 2016, 12:58am PST in Is cheap oil a bad thing?, curious2 said:

    Dan8267 says

    currency debasement more than falling oil prices causes the purchasing power of your dollar to decline

    I agree, but policies propping up the USD relative to other currencies have so far limited the effects of debasement by enabling Americans to live high off imported goods. When the US buys from China, the Chinese invest in US Treasuries to keep the USD high relative to the CNY; the UK has "Pound Stores," where people pay 50% more for the same Chinese products that Dollar Stores sell here. Ditto Japan and the JPY: they hold $1T of American treasuries. And when the rest of the world buys from Saudi Arabia, the Saudis prop up the USD by investing much of the profits in American assets (primarily stocks and real estate). Debtors outnumber creditors, and bankers (the merchants of debt) overpower everybody, and have paid both imperial patronage networks to convert America into an empire of debt: Democrats do it for the medical industrial complex, Republicans for the military industrial complex, but the bipartisan consensus is to borrow and spend more. That requires selling USD, either by printing bonds or currency, and who will buy those USD if they aren't needed for oil? When demand for petrodollars is reduced, what can possibly happen but debasement of the USD?

    BTW, I don't like the situation at all, which is one reason why I use a Grumpy Cat avatar. I would prefer lower oil prices and a budget surplus, as America had around 2000, and a trade surplus as America had decades ago. I just don't see either major party offering that. Most Americans insist on their partisan/sectarian delusions, blaming "the other" side for everything while getting robbed by both sides.

  • On Mon, 8 Feb 2016, 10:11pm PST in Is cheap oil a bad thing?, curious2 said:

    Dan8267 says

    lalalala says

    How?

    War

    And W's tax shift that gave unlimited deductions to 3-ton SUVs, and other measures that protected Saudi Arabia's market position by keeping competitors off the market.

    In 1971, to finance the war in Viet Nam, Nixon took the USD off the gold standard, and put it on a Saudi oil standard instead: the Saudis can charge whatever the market will bear, provided they accept payment only in USD. Much of American policy since then, especially foreign policy, can be seen as protecting the position of Saudi Arabia and thus the petrodollar. That, in turn, has enabled unprecedented American borrowing and spending, including trade deficits continuously since the 1970s and budget deficits almost continuously since 1981. I suspect both of the imperial patronage networks have been in on the game at some level, even if most of their delusional bases don't realize it, because the game enables the real players to cash in. Even the environmentalists' refusal to drill cheap oil off America's coasts had the effect of propping up Saudi petrodollars, millions of which have gone to the Bush&Clinton family businesses.

    The question now, @iwog and @Dan8267, is what will happen to the USD with falling oil prices and rising competition from Iran? Without the gold standard, and with petrodollar support falling, and with chronic structural deficits that neither imperial patronage network shows any sign of addressing, what happens to the USD relative to other currencies? Competitive devaluations? Global "stimulus" (mandatory borrowing&spending)? Will what started out as a devious and probably self-destructive system of imperial finance consume the USD, or the whole global economy?

  • On Mon, 8 Feb 2016, 9:51pm PST in Michael Bloomberg may run for president as independent, curious2 said:

    Ironman says

    He also called for a recession and gold dropping to $1000. Have you seen either of that yet?

    Do you have a link showing exactly what he predicted and when? Gold's 10-year range shows prices per ounce between $600 and $1,900.

    Ironman says

    Wrong, he called for a 20%- 25% correction (when the DOW was at 17,100) by Dec. 2014 (down to 14,000) . Instead, it climbed to 18,300.

    He wrote that he expected "the market to make new all time highs in 2015." That happened. He said he was going to cash in August 2014 because "the odds of a 20-25% correction in the stock market [had become] too high." A correction happened in September and October 2014, though it was only 10%. I didn't see anybody else predicting a correction in the remaining months of 2014, followed by a peak in 2015. After peaking in 2015, as iwog predicted, the Dow has now fallen lower than where it stood when he said he was liquidating all his stocks and going to cash.

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