About Bellingham Bill

Bellingham Bill

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Registered Apr 08, 2012

This is not my house. But it, or one like it, will be someday!

Bellingham Bill's most recent comments:

  • On Fri, 22 Jul 2016, 6:30am PDT in Sex and population, Bellingham Bill said:

    The above graph is more what happens when you run a "welfare state" and enslave half the world to feed your idle capital population(s).

    I hadn't made the connection, but The Hunger Games was some analogue of ancient Rome's system of exploitation.

    As for Japan's baby boom, it was sharp and short, just 2-3 years in the late 40s. They actually legalized abortion to nip it in the bud for some reason (I suspect they wanted to limit the growing half-Japanese population during the American occupation). At any rate while our baby boom was going on into the 1950s, the Japanese were aborting 1 million pregnancies a year.

    Is my favorite image of Japan's future demographic challenge. Doesn't look too bad. Compared to the youth-oriented 1970s and 80s, there will be a lot fewer young people, a lot more old people.

  • On Sat, 16 Jul 2016, 7:56pm PDT in Ten Reasons It's A Terrible Time To Buy An Expensive House, Bellingham Bill said:

    Banks say a safe mortgage is a maximum of 3 times the buyer's annual income with a 20% downpayment.

    20% is in the past like balloon and assumable mortgages are now.

    Now it's 5% and pay some more points to avoid PMI.

    3X factor was based on the 8% mortgage rates. Now they're well under half that.

    Landlords say a safe price is set by the rental market; annual rent should be at least 9% of the purchase
    price, or else the price is just too high. Yet in affluent areas, both those safety rules are still being violated. Buyers are still borrowing 6 times
    their income with tiny downpayments, and gross rents are still only 3% of purchase price.

    Two things; 10 year rates have collapsed:

    So what was 9% gold-standard cap rate is now a 2% cap rate.

    Plus CPI is still the landlord's best friend:

    Rents never, ever go down, not since 1930 at least. You want to own your customers by the balls, buy RE.

  • On Sat, 16 Jul 2016, 7:29pm PDT in Ten Reasons It's A Terrible Time To Buy An Expensive House, Bellingham Bill said:

    Our grandparents did not compete with Chinese money or the massive population we now have, nor did they prize metro-city real estate the way we do today

    Heh, I'm reading some good, old histories of the original settling of Central California.

    Ca. 1890 Somebody named E.B. Perrin owned land around Fresno by the square mile:

    https://www.raremaps.com/gallery/enlarge/24804

    His 9+ sections in the NE of that map are worth up to $5M an acre now . . .

    And that's around 6,000 acres, LOL.

    Somebody named Bullard bought 72,000 acres at around 25c an acre back then, around $500,000 in total in 2015 dollars.

    Now 2 nice acres of it will set you back $1M . . .

    https://www.redfin.com/CA/Fresno/6475-N-Sequoia-Ave-93711/home/58375844

    But this was utterly useless land back then, when the town had more land (~8,000 sections within a 50 mile radius) than the people (all 3,000 of them) could use.

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