| Duke
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Registered Sep 12, 2007
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Duke's most recent comments:
- On 30 Dec 2008
in
The Joy Of Deflation,
Duke said:
Case Shiller is out.
SFO (Bay Area) is now at 139.44.
Down 4.18% MoM
Down 30.98% YoY
Down 36.15% fro Peak in May 2006
Using 2% MoM declines we reach equilibrium now in April/May of 2009 - but that is relativeto retracing the bubble using an anual BA historic appreciation of 4.25%.
At this point I feel normal appreciation is off the table. Inflation is now negative and recession with job-loss and jumbo mortgage unaffordability will drive the market below the pre-bubble historic norms. I feel we can easily see Nominal 2000 pricing by early 2010. In theory, the market will simply stall there for a while but this is heavily dependant on how the economy is managed.
With the rate debt is being added to the US, there is a chance of whipsaw inflaton that the Fed would need to drive rates through the roof to correct. That will have the effect f really depressing housing.
So, I see early 2010 as a time to get a low rate, fairly low cost house. Then some time starting near mid 2011 housing will start another downward correction due to rising mortgage rates. Those with cash in 2012 will not care about the high rates and can get homes cheaper than 2010.
Of course there is a TON of economic intervention coming between now nd then. . . - On 22 Dec 2008
in
The Joy Of Deflation,
Duke said:
On equity stripping
Dunno how to do it. I feel as long as we are in a crisis and putting things on the table like our unfunded socialt security and medicaid liabilities, I shold bring up the ruin caused by equity stripping. It enrches the few to the great risk and probable harm to the many. - On 21 Dec 2008
in
The Joy Of Deflation,
Duke said:
I would like to see eqiuty stripping regulated. How many more times are we going to let a company like Cerebus step in, take cash, load a company up on debt, and then move on?
In good years, the debt is a positive leveraging agent. In bad years, Cerebus just kills you. Take-overs by by companies with no business model are people just gaming the system. Time for this profit model to go to bed. Especially when the cost is a public bailout. . .
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