About toothfairy

toothfairy


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41 threads
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Oakland, CA
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In United States
Registered Dec 18, 2009

toothfairy's most recent comments:

  • On 18 Apr 2014 in Voters open to tweaking prop 13, toothfairy said:

    if you don't like prop 13 move to New Jersey. I hear their taxes are plenty high.

  • On 18 Apr 2014 in My take on the soft existing home sales numbers today, toothfairy said:

    What I'm saying is that the Fed is running the show here. If higher rates impact demand then rates will come down again until they "achieve their objective".

    Fed transparency these days is overkill. Listen to the Janet Yellen speech if you haven't yet.

    Yellen:
    "While the housing market still has far to go, it seems to have turned a corner. "

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/text-of-janet-yellens-speech-2014-04-16?link=MW_latest_news

  • On 18 Apr 2014 in My take on the soft existing home sales numbers today, toothfairy said:

    I agree with you that the fundamentals in housing are still not healthy. But I wouldn't expect them to be with ZIRP and QE still in play.

    Housing is cyclical so I'm looking at it from the perspective of where we are in the economic cycle. I don't see housing becoming decoupled from that.

    Also housing (and the stock market) historically have led the economic recovery so it could be a little bit ahead of itself in terms of where the economy is at.
    But that's a pretty fine level of granularity to try to time the market with.. Maybe for housing stocks but not the price of a home.
    The overall trend is still up.

    Logan Mohtashami says

    The question was how is it possible to have a negative year over year number in home sales for 2014 when interest rates are at 4.5% with higher inventory levels.

    Seems to make sense to me. Rates went up faster than incomes so sales are down. Inventory is up because fewer people are underwater, I guess?

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