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Logan Mohtashami's comments

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  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 18, 3:39pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

NuttBoxer says
You're chart will look quite a bit different.


You mean the 2011 Silver Run ... Gold held 1040, trade off of that but it hasn't done much, I don't even have the heard to add a bitty vs gold chart..

Speaking of which.....

This is for every single Pat.net person that has been screaming Murder of currency induced Inflation... which never happened once.. Probably the most charts I ever added into an article ever

"The Inflation Fear That Never Materialized"

https://loganmohtashami.com/2017/12/17/the-inflation-fear-that-never-materialized/
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 18, 6:08pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

anotheraccount says

I would not wait for Logan to respond. If he does, it will be with something completely irrelevant.



If federal debt hasn't created currency induced inflation it is a net positive for the country.... Now, not every country can pull this off but this was the reason why the Euro was created to combat the dollar... hence why nobody leaves the Euro
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 18, 6:26pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Strategist says

Hey Logan, you and your cat have matching fur.
They say your animals often tend to take some resemblance of yourself. Beard stays too
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 20, 9:11am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

anon_4d40e says
Logan, do you have children?


Married but no kids except

Romulus = cat ,

Grundy = Tortoise

and 5 Goldfish

My dog passed away this year
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 20, 9:14am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

On another note: Today's existing home sales report.... Cycle high in demand tied to cycle low in inventory.

3 dot plot high cycle sales numbers tied 100% to the cycle low in monthly supply in inventory in a non season period of the year.

This without household formation taking off too in America.

Terrible day for the low inventory holding home sales back people



  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 20, 11:10am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

anon_cadcd says

We're never going to get to find out.


Did Iwog finally move to Chile like he wanted to all these years
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 25, 12:32pm   ↑ like (5)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Merry Christmas and Have a wonderful 2018!


  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 9, 1:31pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says
Oh God, that's all we need.


2015, 2016,2017 economic prediction articles all had lower monthly job growth predictions .... Population growth matters, labor force growth matters,

Even with the 171 print you're still well above population growth.

However, 2011-2016 was supposed to be a disaster and 2017 the holy man saved us all with 171K

High end target for 2017 was for 170K actually for myself.

2018, high end number is 159K....

This is the problem with political economic theory rather than real economics... the lie eventually catches up to you
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 9, 1:45pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says
Only net wages matter. Demographics are mostly irrelevant.
iwog says

However I don't want to talk about that


Good idea

iwog says
All deficit projections seem to be based on a business as usual model


total debt is going higher, my model shows 6.2 trillion after 10 years




Just to give a more realistic look at revenue


Mandatory payouts will explode higher but that is a 2024-4057 story
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 9, 1:49pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says
How does the ocean of new paper affect the economy


What I talk about in videos now is that the tax cut will give at least a 5% corp profit margin cushion to the S&P 500... some companies benefit more than others...

I really go into details here, it's a long piece

https://loganmohtashami.com/2017/12/31/2018-economic-housing-predictions/

Oil cap x moving but non energy cap x spending is rising but it is from a low base, consumption is good enough to warrant inventory build out.

I have some good discussions with Obama's former economic team on this subject
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 9, 1:51pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says
total debt is going higher, my model shows 6.2 trillion after 10 years
That is the low point of the range yes, the high point is 13.7 trillion ...variables in that are how long the recession and at what period over the next 10 years since mandatory payouts grow out much larger each year




The last thing I am worried about is federal debt.. more worried about politicians cutting spending to try to create a balance budget
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 9, 1:52pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says
620 billion per year is wildly optimistic
Logan Mohtashami says
That is the low point of the range yes, the high point is 13.7 trillion
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 9, 1:54pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Who ever came up with the 3% GDP is going to pay for itself model... give that guy a drug test
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 10, 1:25pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says


Terrible chart ... makes no sense due to the price deflation factor and the fact that all developed countries had a down trend in manufacting jobs vs total population

I call this the wet Zero Brain dead chart of the extreme left


You guys are all crazy man.. left and right.. no wonder you're all pissed off all the time ;-)
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 10, 1:28pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

You guys got to up your game on here.... If the world doesn't collapse in the next 10 years I am afraid you're all going to move to Chile and drink some Jim Jones Juice and go to the after life
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 10, 2:40pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

Be careful about political economic theory vs real economics

Right believes in the non sense that higher federal debt leads to currency induced inflation

while

left totally reads the productivity vs good producing chart the wrong way






Problem is the same always, if you talk about economics right... it is terribly boring ...
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 10, 7:47pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Strategist says
What will you do with all that money? I'll be glad to help you spend it.

What timing you asked, I paid off my investment property today, free and clear now
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 10, 7:49pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

FortWayne says
Logan where do you see our economy in next 5-10 years?


90 days.. that is the realistic outlook short term in terms of macro profiling

The one benefit going out is that our demographics will be better for household formation, especially years 2020-2024



This is only a replacement working theory not a growing labor force thesis

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 10, 7:51pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Announcing my own Cryptocurrency

Logan Coin Backed by all my charts



  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 10, 8:02pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

WookieMan says
Also, you just switch to BOA or an older checkbook? 203?


I haven't written a check in so long... I had to look for one book ....
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 10, 8:03pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Strategist says
I expect it to go to $1 million by the end of the year.
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 10, 8:04pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Thing with Bitty, less than 4,000 people own most of the bitty out there, so you have no major sellers in yet... But, I kid you not, google search on how to buy bitcoin with debt exploded toward at the end of the year and then the Kodak act this week....

Yikes
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 10, 8:06pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

FortWayne says
Logan where do you see our economy in next 5-10 years?


For 2018... this is the best I can come up with

https://loganmohtashami.com/2017/12/31/2018-economic-housing-predictions/
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 10, 8:23pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

Strategist says

You are such a Capitalist Peeg. Hope you can sleep?


If you buy in the next hour... I will throw in a T-Shirt and cup too

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 10, 10:27pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

SubOink says
stockmarket continuing its rise for ? how many years would you guess?


With PMI data where it's at and earnings cushion from the tax cuts 2018 is fine, I don't like ever going out 12 months, really 90 days to be honest
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 10, 10:29pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Strategist says


Strategist
WookieMan says


WookieMan


Gentlemen request if you could delete that check ;-) probably not the smartest idea to post that
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 12, 7:58am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

BorderPatrol says
why pay off the loan when interest rate is so low and stocks market is booming?


The home only had a 2nd lien on it not a first mortgage, investment home loan, the rate was up to 6.5% after the first few rate hikes. Better cash flow now 1,375 rent vs 600 taxes , expense & HOA. With the loan on now it was a 642 payment. That is why I did it, home sits with 330K value now. Still a long term play here.
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 16, 9:06am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Wolf has been wrong for a long time
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 16, 9:07am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Those are terrible housing charts too
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 16, 9:07am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Not even sure why he is even talking about housing in the first place
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 16, 2:20pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Heraclitusstudent says
A house is a liability.


No, housing is the cost of shelter to your own capacity to own the debt. This is what humans do, they buy a home to live in it and raise their families.

Nobody cares about the investment demand theory outside investors which with mortgages isn't the primary buyer of homes these days. Whatever net equity you create that is even better as that goes into the forced saving thesis.


  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 17, 4:53am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

anon_e09d2 says
Now its worth $2M.
Logan Mohtashami says
Nobody cares about the investment demand theory outside investors


Difference between investors and primary resident home buyers which is still the bulk of home transaction these days. Two different worlds we are talking about. In a low rate enviornment, rental yield looks good even if the peak of rent inflation growth has happened as supply has caught up with demand

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 17, 5:00am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

FortWayne says
how do you see housing market going in CA over this year?


CA home sales look like national home sales, slow demand trends but as long as inventory stays below 6 months national, prices have legs.

On another note we see markets like in Canada, Sweden and Norway .. start to show some pricing cracks

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 17, 5:03am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Be mindful with housing that real home prices national are not back to 2006 levels here in the U.S. and interest rates are 2% - 2.75% lower in this cycle duration period which lasting a long time.

Channel out 10 year yield peaks in 2000 and 2006 & 2007 and we haven't even come close to breaking over the 3% 10 year yield data and even with more PMI data on fire our 10 year yield is still sticking in it's big cycle channel between 1.56% - 2.62%

2 year yield is up over 2% and we can easily see an inversion this year with any market pull back and drop in oil prices
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 17, 5:23am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

FortWayne says
Any other thoughts?


One of the worst economic theories every, this is a supply thesis and if the tax bill MID rule was keeping supply away then NAR should hope for this to be true to bring in more sales.
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 17, 12:37pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

mell says
I see the possibility of a drop in housing prices if rates rise significantly, but will they, that is the question. Not enough rumbles in the bond/rate market yet.


I can't see the 10 year yield going above 3% and staying higher with any duration period this late in a cycle. Heck, I am looking for a inversion this year. The economist at Freddie Mac and I have this on going discussion on twitter on what rate level will impact home sales enough.

You need to see 5.875% 30 year plus to just get back to the pre crash base level... that would mean a 4% plus 10 year yield and you need to see it with duration as well.

So, it's hard to have a higher rate thesis in this cycle.

A more plausible argument going out for decades is that rates can in theory be higher in the next cycle even if the 10 year yield stays below 3% because unless we print out a 1.25% -2.25% 30 year fix rate in the next cycle, then the 36 year trend of 2% plus lower mortgage rates in a new cycle goes away. This in itself would mean real home prices become less affordable.

That is something to look at in the next cycle until then ... 1.60% -3% 10 year yield for this cycle... anything over 3% should be short lived compared to this long expansion already