Logan Mohtashami's comments

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  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 1, 5:55pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

marcus says
Or will you be a perma bull ?


I am already presenting my model on facebook live on how to call the recession with economic data because if you just input my model post 1960 it has called every single recession. Now, each cycle is unique and myself my big call this year was for an inverted yield curve because I am staying true to my 1.60% -3% 10 year yield channel and the 2 year yield is pushing higher

However.... as always, economics is a process not a date... Mother economics she is a serial killer and she wants to get caught, she will leave you clues for a recession. Of course the stock market will get ahead of the economic data.

But... for this purpose here are some keys and most important factor now is that we are running into a prime age labor force growth cycle not a peak and decline like we saw in 2007.

1. Find the over investment thesis in a cycle
2. Fed is fighting Inflation and yields invert ( this process has already started)
3. Housing Starts and LEI ( leading economic indicators) fall 4-6 months straight prior to every recession post 1960
4. Then you should see unemployment claims rise with breath in sectors not just the sector that has the major over investment








  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 2, 5:44am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Strategist says
If unemployment keeps going down we will have a major economic problem.


For now we are still good in terms of the Job openings to job gain numbers because we are still running double the jobs needed for population growth.

However, if Job openings head toward 8-9 million and job gains slow down to 80K per month that is a sign of a brutal labor shortage of just human bodies that productivity could not solve.

I was looking for peak JOLTS to be around 6,210,000 but the last print was near 6,660,000. If the cycle goes on for a few more years this could be the case because the biggest age group in America are ages 23-29.

I am really keeping an eye out of JOLTS data in the next 12 months

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 2, 6:17am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

One thing that I have noticed in this economic cycle

The lack of understanding demographics, productivity and inflation has really put people into a spiral of useless ideological theories.
Irony is that real wage growth has had its best decade in a long time but because people don't know that the rate of growth of productivity and inflation has fallen they don't adjust the numbers.

To be fair, most people really shouldn't know this stuff and media doesn't really highlight it, so you a nation that is confused and in that confusion they missed economic history.





  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 2, 6:22am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

CovfefeButDeadly says
Like I said, time to end welfare and rexamine SS Disability claims.


This has been an interesting take the disability thesis.

The job market is so good that its a miracle since 2014 people have been coming off disability to work again at a snail pace but still the number is very small to the total workforce and total people working.

A lot of these people on disability are really disabled, they can't walk, some can't breath properly without a device, etc etc but the recent spike post the Great Recession is starting to wind it self off and heading toward pre Great Recession trend.

In any case, this is and has always been a small pool of people anyway that were claiming disability but really could work.
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 2, 8:09am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

On another note, I am deeming the retail apocalypse as the biggest fake news economic story over the last 100 years

That was another pathetic terrible thesis, dear lord!

https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami/videos/vb.783163249/10155740365753250/?type=3
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 2, 8:34am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

MisterLefty says
Can you discourse on a possible limit to the amount of sovereign debt that any one country that has its own currency can issue?



U.S. is unique because it has the biggest economy, biggest military, it has a prime age labor force growth model where other developed countries can't and because of the sheer size of the dollar dominance it has will always issue as much debt it needs without really creating any currency induced inflation

EURO was created to off set the dollar dominance and this is why no one will leave the Euro, no matter how much the MMT people don't want to believe in this, it is the reality of the world

The rest of the world has limits and if their economy is tied to a commodity then their currency will be an issue in a down turn, Russia was a good example of this recently with their oil to ruble correlation

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 2, 9:27am   ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Anti Central bank people are not economist or data people and this is why they have failed not only in this cycle but have failed since 1913.

The only explanation I can give is that these people hate being alive, they regret ever being born and their sister soldiers the MMT people are almost just as bad.


We have over 155,000,000 people working

We have the Longest Job expansion ever

We have the largest job openings in the history of the world

Real wages are at all time highs

Retail sales are at all time highs

U.S. is about to have the longest economic expansion ever

Unemployment Claims to civilian labor force is at all time lows .. remember how the crash of America was supposed to start in October of 2014.... when QE ended

We will never seen in our life time a more incoherent group of people than the Anti Central Bank People

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 2, 1:40pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

jazz_music says
Logan has something to sell you.



You're correct on this point... want I want to sell more than anything is that the Anti American bears and extreme left and right people were nothing but a whisper in the wind, dying relic of a religious economic cult that missed out on 200 years of human progresss






Let me quote myself here for a second


"A few questions for my American–bashing friends out there: Did you really (I mean really) think that we had 96,000,000 people looking for work? Did you really think that a rising federal debt was going to bring the end of the American empire? Did you really believe that all Americans are poor or just a few dollars away from poverty? Or were you just saying that so you could sell your solid gold bit coins and industrial sized containers of Dinty Moore beef stew to stock your bomb shelters? Tell the truth now, for once…

Tsk Tsk….. when the next recession comes and it will, I am sure you and all your trolls, orcs and goblins will crawl out of your caves to say “We told you!” But you still won’t be right. The next recession will not be the end of the world and not even the end of America – it will just be the next recession, followed by the next recovery. So stop embarrassing yourselves. I don’t care how much money you’re making from your lies — it’s not worth the cost of your soul."

https://loganmohtashami.com/2018/06/01/american-job-bears-have-embarrassed-themselves-in-this-cycle/
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 2, 1:49pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

jazz_music says
In your other picture you had a cigar
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 2, 1:53pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

mell says
you don't QE


QE had no real velocity, hence why yields rose everything they were on it and fell when it was on really after the first #QE went into place

Demographics and Productivity is economics the rest is stamp collecting... this means the age of super growth is over for developed countries but the age of the replacement worker war is here to stay for this century and robots won't save us

Stay American in this battle for this century

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 2, 6:27pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote        

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says
How much does it cost to buy a speaking slot at a soak-the-rubes investors' symposium these days?


The same amount it takes to add a fake profile, fake picture and hide behind that while disrespecting the country you live in
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 2, 6:37pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

mell says
Countries have already left


Whenever someone even talks about leaving the Euro the bond market puts them back in line with a reality check when yields head higher

Italy has bigger problems to deal with that aren't easy to fix

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 2, 6:38pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Much more calm this time around, market made its point the past 2 times

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 2, 8:20pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Strategist says
I find this chart a little bit perplexing.


Rate of growth of productivity is falling like the chart shows, this is similar to inflation and wages

Cumulative growth is always rising but the rate is just much slower

Inflation is the same trend direction

Cumulative chart looks like




Rate of growth looks like

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 2, 8:21pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Strategist says
unproductive workers are the first to lose their jobs. Vice versa when unemployment is falling,


Another way to look at this and this is my most favorite productive chart ever as you can see we don't have much going with construction for a long time now

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 2, 8:23pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

If we can ever get productivity growing in construction that would be very beneficial for this country




Recent data in total productivity

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 2, 8:27pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Just like in wages, people think that wages are falling for years but it is just the rate of growth, even if you broken them down to many sub categories, we haven't had a negative wage cycle but the rate of growth is slow recently but still much higher than inflation itself

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 2, 8:30pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

curious2 says
potentially productive time, reducing productivity.


This is also a good point productivity if done by a company through either investments or training does initially take away from productivity data as it takes time train people, so if people were looking for some boom in productivity rate of growth through investments that were supposed to be happening this year you really need to wait until 2019 to see it in the data in a more clean setting.
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 2, 8:35pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Strategist says
most unproductive workers are the first to lose their jobs

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 2, 8:41pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Strategist says
because businesses are forced to hire the least productive bums.


On another note I was on Bloomberg Financial recently talking about your favorite subject

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2018-05-23/there-is-no-such-thing-as-affordable-housing-in-america
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 3, 6:07am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

everything says
2018 the year of fake economic data.


The real interesting data line going out now for the next 12 months is this

We have near 6,600,000 job openings and civilian labor force that is unemployed currently is at 6,065,000 ( Some of this) natural discharge of layoffs that happen each month. Hence why a 0% unemployed rate is impossible and why unemployment claims cant go to zero either.

Breakdown the data even more real unemployment rate is roughly 3% and below today when you breakdown the data to a prime age labor force factor model

Men and Women ages 20 and above are Under 3.5% combined, teenagers are running at 12.8% but college grads are running at 2% unemployment rate 3.2% with some college


  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 3, 7:17am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

This is because real home prices aren't back to 2006 levels.

People always make this mistake on looking at nominal home prices and not accounting for interest rates as well

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 3, 7:18am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

The best I try to show why prices have legs and why people shouldn't use 2006 as a barometer

1. Real Home Prices on a YoY basis from 2012-2018 look nothing like what we saw from 2002- 2005

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 3, 7:20am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

2. We have no speculation demand curve from mortgage buyers in this cycle, but unlike 2006, where prime age labor force growth peaked and declined, we are running into a better demographic patch for housing years 2020-2024

This is why I have always said, years 2008-2019 is a light demographic patch for housing demand

Even today, even with over 155,000,000 people working, soon to be the longest economic expansion ever, mortgage demand is only at 1998 levels

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 3, 7:22am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

3. Housing tenure has doubled

- Lack of selling equity
- Lack of a reason to move
- Lack of kids
- Builders building bigger and bigger homes so that you don't need to move up

Host of factors on this thesis not only starting to grow in this cycle but could have legs to grow for some time

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 3, 7:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

How perfect of a subject

I broke down the unemployment rate data into sub categories to show that the real trend unemployment rate is now 3%

https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami/videos/vb.783163249/10155742316973250/?type=3
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 4, 5:53pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Young Americans are buying homes at an accelerating clip. First-time buyers accounted for 46% of new Freddie Mac mortgages in the first quarter, the biggest share for a quarter since 2012.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-04/first-time-u-s-homebuyers-account-for-almost-half-of-mortgages


Which I explained on Bloomberg recently as well

https://loganmohtashami.com/2018/05/24/bloomberg-interview-the-state-of-the-u-s-housing-market/
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 9, 7:52am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

I was recently at a Bill Maher show in Vegas, sat right in the front row and with in 20 minutes of the show a fight broke out between a Trump person and a Non Trump person and Bill just ripped into both of them and said what the hell are you fighting about you're sitting in the front row which means you're making money
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 17, 9:48am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Back on planet earth



  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 17, 9:49am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Break down part time workers, you have a lot people ages 16-24 that work part time because it is hard to go to high school and college full time and work full time as well. Not enough hours in a day for this
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 17, 9:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Give MMT people this much credit they have reached troll status only worthy of the Anti Central bank people, two groups that have missed this entire economic expansion because both groups can't read data correctly

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 17, 9:54am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

- Longest job expansion ever recorded in U.S. history 93 months, previous record was 48 months so we are on the verge of doubling that

- Unemployment claims vs civilian labor force is at all time lows

- Next year at this time we will have the longest economic expansion ever recorded in U.S. history

As always, the extreme left and right missed this record breaking time in U.S. history because they can't read data correctly.

Oh wait, I forget ....we have more job openings than unemployed workers.....

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 17, 10:06am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

WookieMan says
occasional vacation


I am going to Amayara in Turks and Caicos for 7 days in 3 weeks

https://www.aman.com/resorts/amanyara?

Staying in this room

https://www.aman.com/resorts/amanyara/pavilions/ocean-cove-pavilion
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 17, 10:26am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

HEYYOU says
Economics is not a hard science. It's hit & miss,trial & error,gambling.
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 17, 11:52am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Its good to have young energetic people run for government, especially with Gen Z coming down the pipeline.

However, as always, everything someone in office says now will be criticized and she did boast about having an economic degree recently on twitter

She is young, passionate and from the Bernie Sanders, MMT cloth, so expect some statements that just aren't true.

People who only work from the data mine fields have to be critical of those from both sides of the political economic spectrum and this is why I have always stressed that people should be careful listening to MMT people and Anti Central Bank people, both groups are notoriously known for not making accurate economic statements to boost their own economic ideological views.
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 17, 4:15pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

FortWayne says
USA?


What a lot people forget is that in 2018, prime age labor force is back to where it was in 2007 and now we are growing. So we have that underneath demographic household formation demand to keep things at bay.

Where other countries don't have that capacity anymore. On that front we are good now and I still never ever hear about this once anywhere so I am surprised that it doesn't get talked about.

Also, Gen Z is massive as well, so we have another replacement workforce coming after the M's
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 23, 5:30am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

On another economic subject if you run into the MMT crew that imply a lot people make poverty wages

Show them this chart and make it clear that % of poverty in America is heading toward single digit the make shift of the demographics in this country is keeping that % higher than it really is

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 23, 6:47am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

bob2356 says
After all Obama increased the debt,


Political economy theory is only for the mad and insane.... Presidents have very little to do with economic expansion and recessions.... Federal debt rose more due to Demographics and a lack of revenue from the Great Recession, 2 things that a sitting President doesn't have control on

If you really want to know about economics and data cycles, Presidents have to be on the bottom of the list and realize that tribalism isn't a good way to look at economics

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 26, 5:57pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Existing Home Sales Look Perfect

“For 2018, I anticipate existing home sales to be in the range of 5.27 – 5.53 million units. If we end the year showing negative growth, with rising inventory once again, don’t worry, be happy. This would be “normal” especially when purchase applications are still trying to party like it is 1999.”

https://loganmohtashami.com/2018/07/23/existing-home-sales-look-perfect/

New Home Sales Look Perfect!

” I expect to see 2%-5% growth in new home sales that could go higher if the median sales price remains stable and the trend of building smaller homes continues. ”

https://loganmohtashami.com/2018/07/25/new-home-sales-look-perfect/
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 26, 6:00pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

That chart above could be the worst chart of 2018





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