Logan Mohtashami's comments

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  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 3, 7:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

How perfect of a subject

I broke down the unemployment rate data into sub categories to show that the real trend unemployment rate is now 3%

https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami/videos/vb.783163249/10155742316973250/?type=3
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 4, 5:53pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Young Americans are buying homes at an accelerating clip. First-time buyers accounted for 46% of new Freddie Mac mortgages in the first quarter, the biggest share for a quarter since 2012.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-04/first-time-u-s-homebuyers-account-for-almost-half-of-mortgages


Which I explained on Bloomberg recently as well

https://loganmohtashami.com/2018/05/24/bloomberg-interview-the-state-of-the-u-s-housing-market/
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 9, 7:52am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I was recently at a Bill Maher show in Vegas, sat right in the front row and with in 20 minutes of the show a fight broke out between a Trump person and a Non Trump person and Bill just ripped into both of them and said what the hell are you fighting about you're sitting in the front row which means you're making money
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 17, 9:48am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Back on planet earth



  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 17, 9:49am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Break down part time workers, you have a lot people ages 16-24 that work part time because it is hard to go to high school and college full time and work full time as well. Not enough hours in a day for this
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 17, 9:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Give MMT people this much credit they have reached troll status only worthy of the Anti Central bank people, two groups that have missed this entire economic expansion because both groups can't read data correctly

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 17, 9:54am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

- Longest job expansion ever recorded in U.S. history 93 months, previous record was 48 months so we are on the verge of doubling that

- Unemployment claims vs civilian labor force is at all time lows

- Next year at this time we will have the longest economic expansion ever recorded in U.S. history

As always, the extreme left and right missed this record breaking time in U.S. history because they can't read data correctly.

Oh wait, I forget ....we have more job openings than unemployed workers.....

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 17, 10:06am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
occasional vacation


I am going to Amayara in Turks and Caicos for 7 days in 3 weeks

https://www.aman.com/resorts/amanyara?

Staying in this room

https://www.aman.com/resorts/amanyara/pavilions/ocean-cove-pavilion
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 17, 10:26am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HEYYOU says
Economics is not a hard science. It's hit & miss,trial & error,gambling.
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 17, 11:52am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Its good to have young energetic people run for government, especially with Gen Z coming down the pipeline.

However, as always, everything someone in office says now will be criticized and she did boast about having an economic degree recently on twitter

She is young, passionate and from the Bernie Sanders, MMT cloth, so expect some statements that just aren't true.

People who only work from the data mine fields have to be critical of those from both sides of the political economic spectrum and this is why I have always stressed that people should be careful listening to MMT people and Anti Central Bank people, both groups are notoriously known for not making accurate economic statements to boost their own economic ideological views.
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 17, 4:15pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

FortWayne says
USA?


What a lot people forget is that in 2018, prime age labor force is back to where it was in 2007 and now we are growing. So we have that underneath demographic household formation demand to keep things at bay.

Where other countries don't have that capacity anymore. On that front we are good now and I still never ever hear about this once anywhere so I am surprised that it doesn't get talked about.

Also, Gen Z is massive as well, so we have another replacement workforce coming after the M's
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 23, 5:30am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

On another economic subject if you run into the MMT crew that imply a lot people make poverty wages

Show them this chart and make it clear that % of poverty in America is heading toward single digit the make shift of the demographics in this country is keeping that % higher than it really is

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 23, 6:47am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

bob2356 says
After all Obama increased the debt,


Political economy theory is only for the mad and insane.... Presidents have very little to do with economic expansion and recessions.... Federal debt rose more due to Demographics and a lack of revenue from the Great Recession, 2 things that a sitting President doesn't have control on

If you really want to know about economics and data cycles, Presidents have to be on the bottom of the list and realize that tribalism isn't a good way to look at economics

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 26, 5:57pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Existing Home Sales Look Perfect

“For 2018, I anticipate existing home sales to be in the range of 5.27 – 5.53 million units. If we end the year showing negative growth, with rising inventory once again, don’t worry, be happy. This would be “normal” especially when purchase applications are still trying to party like it is 1999.”

https://loganmohtashami.com/2018/07/23/existing-home-sales-look-perfect/

New Home Sales Look Perfect!

” I expect to see 2%-5% growth in new home sales that could go higher if the median sales price remains stable and the trend of building smaller homes continues. ”

https://loganmohtashami.com/2018/07/25/new-home-sales-look-perfect/
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 26, 6:00pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

That chart above could be the worst chart of 2018


  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 25, 7:04am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Did anyone here take my MASI stock pick from years ago, I am sure some of you are chart people ;-)
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 25, 7:18am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
I don't get it.


History of humanity is that ideological people want to see the world burn and then we have people that believe they're so right that the world is dying

(MMT & Anti Central Bank) people that in their eyes no matter how many years they fail, they always believe they're right none then less. That is their torture and our victory



  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 25, 7:30am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
great chart.


I have about 25 folders of charts, one for each sector, all updated daily. My most favorite one is The World Is Awesome Folder, that I always save for my Anti Central Bank and MMT friends.
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 25, 7:40am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

CBOEtrader says
Tableau connected to your databases?


No, its almost all government data outside a few sectors that get the reports from the industry itself, so I read the reports and the charts are easy to upload.
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 25, 10:42am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

CBOEtrader says
thats dedication.


Its a lot easier now than 10 years ago, all government data agencies have twitter accounts and upload the data on release. BLS, DOL, Census, etc etc Social media productivity
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 25, 3:44pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

deepcgi says
so were you all in on Australian real estate?


Ticker symbol MASI

As always, economic cycles and business cycles move together, my inversion call for 2018 is only one piece in a bigger puzzle on when this cycle ends but as always the markets will get ahead of the economic data
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 25, 3:48pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Irony of this cycle we are going to have a hat trick here, and maybe under 3 different administrations

- Longest job expansion ever, 94 months (2nd best ever was 48 months)

- Longest bull market ever, ( subject to interpretation) of course but on a duration time-frame not a % return we got that this last week

- Longest economic expansion ever, July of 2019

When the next recession comes and in time it will, don't make the mistake the extreme left and right make every day they breath... it will not be the end of the America and now we have the growing prime age labor force
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 25, 8:26pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

marcus says
globalization has been a terrible for the U.S.


The country couldn't employ over 156,000,000 people if we were an old manufacturing country using technology based in from 1910-1960



Even with this above we are 2nd biggest manufacting country in the world and every nation even trade surplus Germany has had manufacturing jobs fall as a % of the population
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 25, 8:41pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

lostand confused says
We are 21 trillion and rising a trillion a year?



We are a 125 Trillion dollar GDP and Financial asset country with the reserve currency of the world and the only major economy that has a growing prime age labor force. My bigger worry is that the dollar gets too strong

Japan's debt to GDP is running at 250% and they're borrowing at lower rates than us.

Once Germany, China, Japan, Europe has a major debt blow then we can talk about maybe the U.S. is next but most likely all $$$ come to our bond market and $ even with that

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 25, 9:11pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
Answer: because they are the ones who took it from the rest of the world.


China vs U.S. not even close, Even China is moving now to a service based economy, China's prime age labor force has already peaked, game is over, the next 30 years will be U.S. dominance over the world

156,000,000 Bad Ass Americans working and 6,800,000 job openings this year.... even manufacturing job openings are at 21st century highs

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 25, 9:14pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The reason why manufacturing output is so high in America, it's because of productivity of scale happened in manufacturing

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 26, 6:01am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

JZ says
In reality, these are debt slaves with their income sucked



Most student loan debt in this country is under 15K

Biggest student loan debt holders in America typically are those with the highest net income earners (excluding stock option capital gain citizens)

Those with very little education and very little skill set don't make money

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 26, 6:05am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

JZ says
and struggle of the mass
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 26, 6:06am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

JZ says
central banks printing.
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 26, 6:30am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

deepcgi says
And how has the wage of the middle class worker held up against the cost of his/her housing, travel, food, healthcare?



Real average hourly wages have had their best decade in many because inflation has been low,



One thing I have tried over the year to explain to people with the data is that we do see a clear divergence between prime age labor force wage growth and the wage growth of those Americans 55 year and older which makes sense because you're well into your work life and your peak earning years are ares 46-54

So prime age labor force wage growth is running at 3.5% currently but 55 plus is 2% roughly trend for some time. We naturally have more older workers so it does taint the total data a tad but a reason why consumption is so healthy and debt expansion is relativity light outside of auto's is that people are making a lot more that the notion all Americans are poor thesis

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 26, 1:57pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

everything says
DEEPEST job cuts ever in recent history.. A set up for above.


If I take the last 3 recessions combined job loss runs 13,000,000 we have created over 18,000,000 since 2010, 130 million plus were working at the worst levels of the great recession , the highest unemployment rates came from high school drop outs, college educated Americans peak unemployment rate was 5%

Nice Try!

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 26, 2:00pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

everything says
QE into infinity


#QE ended in 2014, we were told by the Anti Central people that October of 2014 would bring the end of humanity itself

Nah.....

As always, being alive post 1913 has been a black hole for the Anti Central Bank people, they don't understand why humans are even existing past 1913

Epic disaster, then again look at your head people

Schiff, Rick San tell a Lie, Mish, etc etc etc , the worst macro economic people in world, even worse than Warren Mosler and the MMT trolls that run the internet ....

You need better heroes
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 26, 2:03pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

everything says
I think lol, I've got 18 days to go on one hell of a shopping spree or rack up some CC bills,


CC utilization rates are actually low in this cycle but this would require reading the data to know this, something the Anti Central Bank trolls chose not to do in this cycle

Is this the best the Anti central bank trolls got left, a bunch rag tag economic theories that failed, over and over and over again in this cycle

Dying Economic Religious Cult with the single worst spokespeople I have ever seen in my life, thank god no one ever listen to the crash calls and tried to short the index every 10 days .... tsk tsk



  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 26, 2:04pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

rdm says
Something like lower, middle, upper middle




One thing about median income itself, not population adjusted and 1/3 of your pay check goes to benefits now 2/3rd goes to actual take hope pay.

But even median incomes even with the added demographic adjustment are at all time highs now, as always we send out higher income base people when they retire and replace them with starting pay income people
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 26, 2:11pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Come on guys, is this the best you guys got, the same line over and over again.

You wonder why you guys have been wrong since 1913 ......
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 26, 2:24pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Being poor in America is very expensive, the problem I see what the extreme left and right make is that they assume most people are 2nd wage earning Americans working 2 jobs and have no education or skill set training. Now that group has issues for sure, but my lord, this is a over play on the economy ...at least the Gig economy was competently debunked this year, even the most liberal economist finally threw in the towel on that one outside of a few extreme left wing thinkers

  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 26, 4:15pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

FortWayne says
Logan is there a stock you can recommend that is a prime for buyout?


It might be a bit late but I am in TRNC + ARNC but I think the market is already on to these two. Outside of that I got nothing, as always most of investment $$$ in a individual stock is still in MASI
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 26, 8:54pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

rdm says
1/2 have been hammered?


If you don't have any education or skill set training, the cost of living wage capacity is very little, you almost have to live in a low cost of living state to get by.
  Logan Mohtashami   ignore (0)   2018 Aug 30, 6:40pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Heraclitusstudent says
1 point of that was due to trade pulled forward



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