Malcolm's comments

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  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 8, 12:17am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

curious2 says
LeonDurham says
Models aren't proof. Presenting a model is providing a tool that incorporates many variables into simulations to produce probabilities of results when differing scenarios are inputted. Definitely not proof.


Just preserving this, too...


Yes, this one is a real beaut.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 8, 9:04am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Malcolm says
Yes, this one is a real beaut.


Troll #2 makes an appearance as well.

It's funny. If one simply quotes and responds to a post, it is duly saved. To quote and not respond is really the height of trollishness.


There's not much I can add to some of your insights, so I just read with my mouth agape, as I am sure many others are, including some who are on your side of the topic. In over ten years of my participation on this site, yours are by far the most surreal strings of logic that I have ever read. It is literally like watching someone being told that there is no Easter bunny despite the compelling physical evidence of chocolate eggs that can only be explained by the existence of the Easter bunny.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 8, 9:21am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
lol--with no examples, of course. No thoughtful response pointing out the error in my logic or even where you disagree with my opinions.


I have an open challenge to anyone who can show an actual doom and gloom climate change prediction that came true or even just a photograph showing a rise in sea level. For all of the people who believe the way you do, not one has been able to, with a simple old and recent photograph, show any rise in the high water line, yet on my thread relating to this very topic, I have my own and other pictures showing no change on a fixed object.

Your logic is flawed because you concur that the science is settled, yet the models that the science theory you assert as true continue to be wrong with the predictive theory. Your science can't be settled with predictive theory that doesn't correctly predict. Rather than objectively reevaluating and actually learning something, the religious mindset takes over and the desired result becomes a goal to prove instead of a theory to test.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 8, 9:30am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
You are basically saying that gravity doesn't exist because one cannot precisely predict where a feather will land when dropped outside.


A bit of a stretch, but yes, even in this example, if you can't correctly predict the outcome, you don't have a full understanding of the subject.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 8, 9:30am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

That's what makes it a religion, because it becomes a belief.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 8, 9:36am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
You obviously haven't read anything I've written. That is the exact OPPOSITE of what I've been saying


This is called equivocating. This allows a safe space for plausible deniability. If you don't actually believe the science is settled relating to human caused climate change, then it is you who are trolling by asserting that we are all ignorant and wrong about something that you are apparently open to because you say the science for part of it is settled but you aren't so sure about the rest of it. The problem there is that the rest of it is the point of the discussion. The atmosphere obviously holds in heat like a blanket. The effect of CO2 is not understood, ergo bad model result, and more likely it is the amount of water vapor and clouds that determines how much heat is trapped.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 8, 9:48am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Nope. I don't think you read very carefully. The science of the greenhouse effect is settled. It was discovered in the early 1800s and proven in mid 1800s, completely unrelated to and prior to any discussion of the Earth warming. That is not a model.


Sorry, but you have just precisely rephrased my point. You are just wanting to alarm for no actual reason. That is precisely what an alarmist is.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 8, 10:05am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Since you are not digesting what I am telling you let me be clear, with your own words.

CBOEtrader says
I think you're confusing things. Science is settled on CO2's effect in the atmosphere. The models are obviously just that--models.


LeonDurham says
Nope. I don't think you read very carefully. The science of the greenhouse effect is settled. It was discovered in the early 1800s and proven in mid 1800s, completely unrelated to and prior to any discussion of the Earth warming. That is not a model.


Now with my words:

Malcolm says
asserting that we are all ignorant and wrong about something that you are apparently open to because you say the science for part of it is settled but you aren't so sure about the rest of it. The problem there is that the rest of it is the point of the discussion. The atmosphere obviously holds in heat like a blanket. The effect of CO2 is not understood, ergo bad model result, and more likely it is the amount of water vapor and clouds that determines how much heat is trapped.


The reason you think I missed something is because you don't understand the effect of CO2 in the atmosphere because the predictive theory on its relationship to temperature didn't pan out. Therefore I simply go to the main point, the effect of human activity. The reason some of your comments are keepers is because of the bizare logic of admitting that the predictive theories might be flawed, even due to circumstances yet unknown (some consider it settled science), yet you still believe there is an actionable crisis.

That is why some of us are taken aback.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 8, 10:08am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Could you please point out where I'm alarming? Pointing out the existence of the greenhouse effect discovered in the 1820s is alarming?


curious2 says
LeonDurham says
The only thing that can argued is how self correcting the Earth's ecosystem is. Maybe it will self correct and stop the temperature rise. But, the consequences are so dire if not, is it really something we want to leave up to chance?


Just preserving this...


Also preserving this.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 8, 3:15pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Onvacation says
Is it a coincidence that many alarmists are atheists that badly need to believe in something?


Similar behavior by followers and similar behavior by those controlling the followers. It’s almost like they follow this model like the Bible. Don’t you dare question the contradictions, that is heracy.

Yes, people need a belief or a cause to feel complete.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 22, 10:03am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

More alarmism from insignificant natural variations with no impact on anything. Note the "radically" for more punch.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 3, 8:12am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Again, if someone could show me with photographic proof that oceans are rising, I would be open minded. Here is another bit of photographic proof of basically no change, certainly no rise.

http://extra.heraldtribune.com/2016/06/09/throwback-thursday-photos-venice-avenue-then-and-now/
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 3, 8:45am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Here’s another one. Please take note, absolutely no change in the high water line, almost perfect match where the grass grows.

  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 10, 8:17am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I’ve been waiting for four months for my license plates. I looked it up and that is normal now.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 10, 8:21am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

At least the interest should be. If it is too easy, banks will end up requiring the loans be secured with an asset or a co-signer, who will end up being on the hook. There is no free lunch, don’t borrow money if you aren’t sure that you can repay it.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 10, 9:17am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Aphroman says
You can’t have Capitalism without the ability to discharge debt via bankruptcy


Cool, as long as you aren't using taxpayer money, knock yourself out.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 10, 10:06am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

theoakman says
This is a very easy fix via middle ground. You can disallow bankruptcy for a period of time (10 years maybe). Most people want to buy a home at that point.


Really? You don’t believe that even the home lenders would then encourage people to file for bankruptcy, which would make them eligible for even more of a loan for a house because they won’t have a student loan payment and they would also be prevented from filing bankruptcy for another 7 to 10 years allowing them to be an even safer loan as they would have more equity in the house after that time?

I see a major moral hazard with what you’re proposing here.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 15, 5:41pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Even I am astounded that it is 60% higher than the last time around.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Aug 1, 4:33pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Latest reports I read today are showing significant decreases in offers, increasing inventories and fewer showings for San Diego.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Aug 18, 10:32pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I just drove my Bolt from San Diego County to Las Vegas. My Bolt is my all-time favorite car.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 11, 9:25am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Strategist says
Yes, the numbers do show that. The anecdotal information and observations I see from the zip codes I follow in So Cal show July will be worse than June. The worst case is a looming pause in housing before the insanity caused by a housing shortage continues.
Didn't you sell your home last October expecting prices to crash? Are you glad?


Hi there, I just noticed this. I don't check in very often. Yes, I am extremely happen that I sold when I did. In my opinion I called the top within months. I was thinking of this thread yesterday because I read an article that sales are down 20% year over year for August in San Diego. The article concedes price decreases for all the reasons we cite, high interest rates, overpriced houses that aren't supported by wages despite low unemployment etc. I am still confident in year over year price declines. I am not predicting another meltdown, but especially for the expensive homes $550 and above (you guys in the bay area will laugh at me when I say an expensive home is $550K), I do foresee 30 to 50 percent corrections.

I'm not particularly bearish on nationwide housing, I just know what I see here. I rarely see anything moving for more that $400 a foot in my area, unless it is a killer horse property or has some other unique feature. I saw a situation of two identical houses on the same street with a 30% difference in price just because of a canyon verses a regular street view.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 11, 9:54am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Here is a scenario that should help the rent/price discussion. In the 90s you could rent a house in San Diego for about $1,000/month. My first house was 1200 sf and I rented it out for about $1,000/mo when I bought another house. In 2005 that house was worth $440K, but still renting for about $1,200/month. Nowadays $500-$600K will get you that type of starter home. These homes, like my recent N County property may rent for $2,000. I would never try to rent a property out for that amount again, there are very few renters locally who actually qualify. Part of why I sold when I did was the rental market seemed really shady, but even if we believe that the economy is even better and people really can pay $2,000/mo to rent a small 3 bedroom, the numbers are way out of alignment.

1995 starter home $110K rents for $1,000/mo
2005 starter home $450K renting for $1,200/mo
2018 starter home $550K renting for $2,000/mo

So what I considered a normal market when I started investing is a lot different now. Prices are basically 5 times higher to generate two times the rent. Rising interest rates hurt even more and are removing any upside potential, meaning 0 for a present value of speculative increases. How can anyone say they aren't being overbought?

The only explanation was falling interest rates, but investors ignore borrowing costs in rental analysis, so the cap rate, basically the return on the purchase price, is minuscule compared to what it historically was. To buy for an investment is unattractive right now, especially if borrowing. My strategy is to wait for the dream home which has a uniquely rentable part and try to hit the market at that sweet-spot of a heavily discounted price. Those deals are becoming very common, I can show $215/ft all day long on 2,500 sf and up.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 11, 9:58am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

MisterLefty says
Not a scientific survey by any means, but I receive Redfin updates on properties on the market in areas of interest, and at least by that criteria, the number of homes in San Diego, Encinitas in particular, that they have been sending me has increased dramatically over the last few months. It appears that folks are bailing, but that the homes are staying on the market longer.


Not scientific on its own, but more articles are making similar observations. What people miss is that growing inventory. That is what causes a crash when the sales are forced somehow. Until then we just merrily report rising median home prices because that is only measuring what actually is selling. That measure doesn't measure if those sales are actually bargains and my observation is that in general the houses that are selling are discounted expensive homes and a few overpriced starter homes.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 11, 10:20am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Strategist says
You sold in October 2017, and we have been hitting new highs ever since. The San Diego County median hit another record high at $579,750 last month.
So when and where is the top you called?


I haven't seen any sales in my area that make me question my decision. I did extremely well and wouldn't have a problem if someone after me made a little money. Time will tell. All I know is that more than one article and news-report have said people are not getting what they did a year ago.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 11, 10:22am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Strategist says
Hey, I just checked.The average rent for a 2 bedroom apartment in San Diego County is $2,341. A 3 bedroom house would obviously rent for a lot more.
Where the hell do you get your $2,000 monthly rent for a median priced 3 bedroom house?


North County.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 11, 10:23am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Strategist says
The 1995 starter home would be $300,000, with rent at $1,200
The 2015 starter home $550,000 would rent for $2500 today.


Factually wrong. My first house was in the city limits near to San Diego State University and was a real case example. Yes, downtown by the waterfront would have your figures.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 11, 10:35am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Malcolm says
Hey, I just checked.The average rent for a 2 bedroom apartment in San Diego County is $2,341. A 3 bedroom house would obviously rent for a lot more.
Where the hell do you get your $2,000 monthly rent for a median priced 3 bedroom house?


https://sandiego.craigslist.org/csd/apa/d/3-beds-2-baths-1476-sqft-home/6694586834.html

First, I didn't say median house, I said starter homes. I don't deal in nicer homes as an investment property.
2nd, San Diego has the widest range of prices anywhere that I have ever seen. We have some of the priciest houses and nearby we have some real dumpy areas. Be careful about the averages.
3rd. My example even surprised me, because it is actually in the city limits in a pretty decent area.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 11, 10:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Strategist says
You keep giving very subjective and anecdotal examples. The real data shows something quite different.


Subjective? There is a Craigslist ad right there for you. Also, be careful of the median stats. You are factually wrong because I am talking about single family homes. This article explains the numbers. Note they are saying there is a 20% increase in inventory. Also note the year over year and prior month declines in sales.
https://www.10news.com/news/making-it-in-san-diego/san-diego-home-sales-show-decline-in-august
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 11, 10:53am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Just one article about discounting. That is usually unheard of when San Diego is a seller's market.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/16/housing-tipping-back-to-a-buyers-market-as-sellers-cut-prices.html
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 11, 10:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I can assure you in the last month I have seen at least three articles and two news stories about sellers not being able to get what their house was worth last year.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 11, 11:02am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Here is the actual example.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/3410-Page-St,-San-Diego_rb/?fromHomePage=true&shouldFireSellPageImplicitClaimGA=false&fromHomePageTab=buy

There is no way in hell that it goes for $2,400/mo. Not with any stability, but the value is even a small surprise for me. I planted that palm tree in 1997. It was a sapling in a 5 gallon pot.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 11, 3:50pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

DASKAA says
Looks like at least half if tge house consists of later additions. I wonder if it is up to the code and has all the permits.


Yes, the county record is correct about the footage. Good call though, a lot of houses there have illegal garage conversions. That house was originally a cookie cutter house built for veterans in the 50s. I bought another one down the road with the same floor plan but not on a slab foundation. If you are curious, it is not actually a four bedroom. What they did was to add a nice master bed/bath and an extra room on the back. One of the original bedrooms was made into a nice family room with a fireplace. Even though it retained its closet, it technically isn't a bedroom because you go through it to get to the other rooms. It also led to an added enclosed patio. It was all done quite tastefully, but it is one of those fuzzy math problems where adding two bedrooms to two bedrooms equals 3 bedrooms and a den.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 26, 9:46am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

You don't have a right to impose your scents or smoke of any kind on others. In other words, do what you want away from people who don't want to be around it.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 29, 9:58am   ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

That’s why this Kavanaugh case is so important.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 29, 11:35am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

As much of a threat Russia/USSR was, even during the missile crisis, they luckily had good people who questioned the process. There was a submarine that had a US depth charge go off near it, the captain ordered a launch, but his first officer refused, luckily, all the while being called a traitor, by the captain.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 29, 11:39am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Evan F. says
There's always the option of Musk staying on at Tesla, just not as CEO. Some sort of bullshit visionary role. Whether Musk would abide a demotion like that is debatable. But if Tesla kept him around that would certainly calm investors..


They left that option open in his compensation package. They lost faith in him some time ago, but know that Tesla is worthless without him.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 29, 5:40pm   ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

So an innocent man of high repute reacts angrily to being falsely accused by people who say even if he’s not guilty, he’s not fit because he seems angry.

Isn’t that just like a witch trial where not drowning gets you killed for being a witch?
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 9, 9:45am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I'm not concerned with the myth of global warming, I like clean air, so I am for wind power. This study sounds like nonsense because trees would, in theory, do the same thing.
  Malcolm   ignore (1)   2018 Oct 10, 8:47am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Attached homes fell from 490K to $445 in my old area. They still claim the median is up 4% in general, but now you can get a house twice as big as mine was for just a little more than I sold for.

Sales down 20% matching a 20% increase in inventory. Interest rates pushing 5% and jobs that rarely pay more than $20/hr. Not sustainable and sellers getting less than they could a year ago.

That’s the scoop from N Co San Diego.



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