Onvacation's comments

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  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 15, 12:39pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (3)     quote      

Flipping a coin illustrates the difference between a statistical characterization of results and a sequence of events.

Flip a coin, heads. Flip it again, tails. It's still a flip of a coin. Can you say a thousand coin flips will turn out to be evenly distributed? How many coins do you have to flip before FNWGMOBDVZXDNW says
The statistical characterization is easier to predict than the sequence.

Ultimately it's a flip of the coin. Easy to model as there is one binary variable. Heads or tails.
The weather, and thus the climate, has countless multi-valued variables, and unknown feedback effects.

Would you say someone was naive to think they could accurately predict how many heads they will turn out of 1,000,000 flips of a coin? What makes you think anyone can create a model to predict climate a century, a decade, or even 5 years from now?
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 15, 1:01pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (3)     quote      

DoofusRicky says
Even the most staunch global warming activists will agree with you that humans can habitate right now. I think the plan should be to ensure this Remains the case in the future.

Agree with the premise brother ricky.
Resources are better spent in adaptation than mitigation. You can't fight mother nature, but you can surf with her. I hope the world is warming (more arable habitable land, a usable nw passage, etc) but I fear the heat may have peaked and the world is cooling. Ask me again next August.

DoofusRicky says
Such a temperature does not need to be provided in order to project current trends into the end times

It's not heat but fire that's gonna signal armagedon.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 15, 1:24pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (4)     quote      

DoofusRicky says

I would certainly like to see evidence of the world cooling if it exists. Could you share?

2017 data should be compiled by March.
2015 and 2016 (hottest years EVER) have warmed so little that the manipulated (pardon, adjusted) temperature warming was smaller than the margin of error. 2017 looks to be colder than 2016.

Lets not make this another global warming thread. There are enough already.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 15, 3:10pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

But saying that you cannot predict all of the coin flip results does not mean you cannot predict the number of heads. Same goes for the climate.
Onvacation says
What makes you think anyone can create a model to predict climate a century, a decade, or even 5 years from now?

It's nothing real world like flipping a coin
You still don't see to understand statistics,

Just because you are on the steep part of some natural cycle does not mean it's the asymptote of an exponential phenomenon. Hope you get the reference.
have a nice day.

Thank you very much. You too.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 15, 3:55pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

So they can F themselves ?
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 15, 7:10pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

Patrick says

And the preceding by the target himself was also personal, and deleted.

Assuming "the target" is me.

I'm searching my memory and I cannot believe I wrote anything even remotely like a personal attack. Could you remind me of the offending phrase so I can prevent it in the future?
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 16, 11:12am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Tim Aurora says
Denmark produced 140 per cent of its electricity needs through wind power alone in 2015, exporting the rest of the energy to its neighbours, Germany, Sweden and Norway.

Wikipedia tells me that wind power produces the equivalent of 42.1% of Denmark's electricity consumption.
Denmark still has its traditional power plants and is connected by grid to other nations where they purchase additional power when needed.

I didn't research further but they probably sell some of their peak wind electricity and buy back petro-lectricity when the wind dies.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 16, 11:19am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Nuke em.
Nuclear is the way to go.
We need to continue to research fusion until it is realized. My sim cities always flourished if I could make it through nuclear into the age of fusion without blowing anything up.

We Manhattan projected the bomb. Why not fusion or at least advanced nukular before Manhattan goes underwater?
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 16, 11:33am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote      

justme says
Hi all, I think it is about time that we got a repository of historical user names and how they have been changed over time. Please contribute your knowledge. Changing usernames is an annoyance, and I don't feel like spending the energy trying to keep track of all the username shenanigans.

It just dawned on me that the entire premise of this thread is personal.
Argue my ideas, not my personality. Even if I went anon wouldn't you still know it's me? Or maybe it's just someone that thinks like me? Or maybe it's not-me?
Argue my ideas not my personalities.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 16, 11:36am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

There is something to be said for knowing who's bs to skip over.
But as my brother always said, "it's all bs, you just have to believe in your own bs".
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 16, 11:55am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

Comment 100
@patrick I do think this whole thread is personal and perpetuates the back and forth you are trying to minimize.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 17, 7:28am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

anon_1fe2e says

He mixed up a day Vs a year. Still quite impressive.

It is impressive!
But there are still a lot of petro fired plants in Denmark.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 17, 10:42am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Therefore, the word pollution fits CO2

So what is the relationship between co2 increase and warming? Is it linear? Exponential? Can you share the relationship formula?
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 17, 10:43am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

And who else really thinks co2 is a pollutant and not essential for life on earth?
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 18, 9:03am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Heraclitusstudent says

Stop making fire? what do you mean? Like burning wood? Or you think we can't stop burning fossil fuels? Why?

People got matches and want to stay warm.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 18, 9:07am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Heraclitusstudent says
But imagine the same thousands of meters thick glaciers over north America and Europe. This is what severe climate change means and I'm not sure you can count on the opposite warming to be beneficial. At the very least it won't be for everyone.

If I had to choose between thousand meter thick glaciers and a tropical rain forest, I will take the rainforest. Even a desert would be better than the frozen ice.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 18, 9:09am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Heraclitusstudent says
And you can make it as large as you wish because it won't stop until we stop.

  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 18, 10:34am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Heraclitusstudent says

Burning wood alone wouldn't cause global warming.

People dig coal, pump oil, they even burn dung to keep warm. Otherwise they would freeze to death.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 18, 10:35am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Onvacation says
People dig coal, pump oil, they even burn dung to keep warm.

And they exhale co2!
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 18, 10:46am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Heraclitusstudent says
200, 300 yrs? A blink in the history of mankind.

300 years ago we were burning wood to keep warm.
If we focus our resources and rein in the idiocracy the cold fusion revolution will make power "too cheap to meter". (Anybody old enough to remember that promise?)

Alternatively, in 2 or 3 centuries we may live in a post cannibal anarchy world where small tribes fight mutant cockroaches over giant rats as we carefully tend our yam gardens.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 18, 10:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

I have not given up refuting alarmist arguments. Time may not change the minds of the holdouts, but time has and will continue to refute their apocalyptic predictions of exponential temperature and sea rise.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 18, 11:00am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Onvacation says
Everyone in this country should be required to spend one day in a landfill each month,
not at the entrance gate but in close proximity to the trash.

Had a classmate that worked at the local landfill. He died of some strange cancer at the age of 35.

We are poisoning the world. Imagine the carbon footprint of an aircraft carrier group?
This consumer driven debt and death economic paradigm has to shift before we will ever "save" the world.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 18, 11:32am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Heraclitusstudent says

There won't be anything dramatic in the near term.

Heraclitusstudent says
No one says there will be. It's just catastrophic in the longer term,

No doubt we have to change our polluting ways.

Heraclitusstudent says
you don't care about.

Don't get personal. You have no idea how I make the world a better place.
Heraclitusstudent says
replacing fossil fuels with renewables, building better solar panels and batteries, etc...
and nuclear!
Heraclitusstudent says
and ignore the barking dogs.

At the risk of getting bit.

We don't seem to be too far off in our beliefs.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 18, 1:09pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

NuttBoxer says
That's a market

I don't remember beanie babies going to nothing they are still being traded on ebay.
And tulips. They've dropped down to less than a buck a piece but they can be planted to grow beautiful flowers.

As far as I can see when you buy bitcoin you are buying a unique sequence of bits.

Problems with bitcoin:
Not good for transactions, too slow, fees.
Not a stable store of wealth.
Not a real investment. Depends on "the greater fool" to cash out with a profit; pyramid?
Not environmentally friendly. "Mining" bitcoin now uses the same amount of electricity as New Zealand.

It's backed by central bank fiat currency.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 18, 1:13pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Breaking News!
Tulip bulbs can be had for less than a dime!
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 19, 7:56am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

Basing future predictions a yearly change is so incredibly stupid that this cannot possibly be a sincere thought.

Ya think?
It's obvious that WaPo is mocking the alarmists.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 19, 8:05am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

This is getting ridiculous. The WaPo is just reporting the news

I know right?
I never expected any alarmist to actually question why the temperature is NOT rising exponentially.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 19, 8:09am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

errc says

What if the USD was a crypto using blockchain?

Our economy would screech to a halt waiting for transactions to process.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 19, 8:38am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote      

Y'all do know that NASA and NOAA do some manipulating with temperature numbers to get that massive -0.09 degree temperature change from 2016 to 2017? Don't you?
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 19, 10:35am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

anon_961a0 says
That's why I don't believe NASA cause everyone knows the earth is flat.

Actually the earth is spherical. Kind of like a big blue marble rotating and orbiting around a big ball of fire that provides warmth and light.

It's a shame that a fine organization like NASA, that took us to the moon, let itself be an accessory to the global warming fraud.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 19, 10:38am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

Do the scientists eat cereal for breakfast? God no!

Real scientists eat their wheaties. While do you want to bring religion into a scientific topic?
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 19, 10:57am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote      

They do this to make a more accurate estimation of the average global surface temperature

No. They lower old temperature readings and raise newer temperature readings and even then they can only squeeze hundredths of a degree of warming.
Why don't they provide the unaltered data alongside the manipulated data?
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 19, 12:00pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

errc says
The USD is the currency of a supposed “Capitalist” country. There’s that whole transparency and Complete Information problem though, nobody seems to know OR care.

What is this USD you speak of?
The federal reserve note you fold in your wallet is not federal and they have no net reserves.

It has been so long that central bank currency has had any real backing that many of our younger citizens don't realize that money should be a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value. Bitcoin is not money. Many would argue that the central bank currency is not money either but you can't buy bitcoin without it.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 19, 3:58pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote      

anon_7f9f0 says
there is no Global Warming.

That's why they call it climate change.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 19, 8:43pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

goat says
The average temp is what matters - the temp year round, 24 hrs a day, all averaged.

How can that possibly be measured?
goat says
Few people pay close enough attention to spot these tricks, and many more just aren't even the least bit scientifically minded, so they believe it because "its science", but cant see that it's bad science.

So true.
Funny how the alarmist have changed their tune from imminent exponential temperature and sea level rise to 2 degrees and a foot of sea level by the end of the century (we'll all be too dead to confirm) will be catastrophic.

Time will tell.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 20, 7:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

The temp increase is observed with data around airports or with data excluding airports. They've found it with or without mountaintop data. They've found it with and without ocean data.
This should put to rest the idea that the world is actually cooling rather than warming.

One degree over a century is not exponential warming.
Why was the narrative changed from exponential temp and sea rise to "2 degrees by the end of the century WILL be catastrophic". Can you explain why we went to climate change from global warming when the temp did not rise as predicted?
Thanks for playing.
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 20, 8:04am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (2)     quote      

Couldn't find "butthurt democrats"
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 20, 9:06am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

BayAreaObserver says

Anyone know where the balance of the Inaugural Fund from last January 20th disappeared to ?

Have you checked the Clinton foundation?
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 20, 1:28pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

FortWayne says

If it provides no value, it's rather pointless to embrace it.

Not true. It's rare. Once they mine the last one there won't be anymore.
Buy now or be priced out FOREVER!

What will you tell your grandchildren when they ask you why you condemned the family to poverty when you could have bought crypto-currency?
  Onvacation   ignore (1)   2018 Jan 20, 4:47pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

BorderPatrol says
Trump Using Same Tactics As Brutal Dictators

Now that you point it out, I don't feel safer against jack booted thugs coming to disappear me into the night than I did under Nixon.