patrick.net

Peter P's comments

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  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 4, 3:49pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

I am a sex-positive feminist.

Sex workers should be legalized and respected.

  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 12, 10:59am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Patrick says

Marianne Le Pen is not yet 50. She might still become president of France next election.

That is a distinct possibility.

Nowadays, I don't even want to eat Macaron anymore.

  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 12, 11:04am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Are these leftists being sarcastic?

  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 15, 11:35am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

zzyzzx says

It's all FDR's fault. He was the moron who thought that it would be a great idea to hand over half of Korea to Stalin after WW2.

Wasn't FDR a Soviet agent? He surely implemented planks of the Communist Manifesto.

  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 16, 2:30pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Is it just me, but ANTIFA sounds like the name of some football (soccer) club.

  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 16, 3:36pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Revenge of the Orient

Private streets were created to keep out people like them. Now, by the power of Grey Skull, I mean Free Market, they own that street.

LOL!

  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 16, 3:38pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

They should make noise about the opposition being a micro-aggression against minorities. What a street full of hypocrites.

  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 16, 3:43pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

They should sell the street to Trump so he can rename it "Trump the Great Street."

Those liberals living there will have to praise the great leader every time they send a Christmas card.

  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Aug 16, 4:21pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Indiana Jones says

This has more to do with power vs. weakness/disenfranchisement and not so much a racial issue.

Humanity rose because of natural selection. The practice of deliberately favoring the weak will the our downfall.

  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Sep 20, 1:10pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Japan is a great country to visit but you cannot pay me to live there.

Look deeper and it does not look so great anymore.

Anyhow, Japan works not because of democratic socialism. Take away the Yakuza and the country will fall apart.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Sep 20, 2:38pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

iwog says
spend 20% of their budget on public welfare and the elderly


They do want the elderly to hurry up and die.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jan/22/elderly-hurry-up-die-japanese
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Sep 20, 6:47pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

But when I hear Rocket Man I think of this.


A hero.

Kim Jong-Un is no hero.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Sep 20, 8:42pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

America already has a Kim as leader. Her name is Kardashian.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Sep 21, 10:27am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

The world is so severely overpopulated anyway. Perhaps AGW will relieve this stress and save the world in the long run.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Sep 21, 12:42pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Industrialization, modern medicine, and nucular weapons have conspired to create the biggest population bubble in history. Perhaps climate change can remove some excesses.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Sep 21, 12:59pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

anonymous says
Those dinosaurs must have produced some serious greenhouse gases when their volcanoes erupted.


They did fart a lot.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Sep 26, 9:59am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

I really liked Happy Accidents, a time-traveling romantic comedy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Happy_Accidents_(film)
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Sep 26, 10:35am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Being a "victim" is emotionally comforting.

However, ALL groups like to play victim.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Sep 27, 10:51pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Jones Act should be repealed completely.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Sep 29, 5:24pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

I only like special cornflakes.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Sep 30, 10:41pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

The c-word is uncalled for, but she is a snowflake.

Looks like the other snowflake (the one with an "emotional support" animal, WTF is that?) won.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Oct 12, 5:38pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

All bogus.

These factors contributed to the current human population bubble.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Oct 24, 4:06pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Vision 2030 is more interesting. The question is, why are they trying to diversify away from oil?
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Oct 25, 9:45pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Well, patrick.net today is VERY different from what it was in 2006-2009.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Oct 25, 10:20pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

The incumbent is automatically the front-runner anyway.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 19, 7:43pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

anon_d06f9 says
As I live and breathe. Welcome back Peter P - or should I say professor emeritus of Patnet, circa 2005. Did you ever end up buying a house?


We did buy a place in 2009.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 19, 7:46pm   ↑ like (5)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Patrick says
I could be wrong of course, but I don't feel there is any big danger of a financial crisis in the next few years.


We are now in an Everything Bubble orders of magnitude larger than the previous housing bubble. It has the potential the threaten more than just the financial markets.

Watch out for a melt-up instead of a melt-down.

Strategist says
Right now I am prepping for the surge in prosperity. Down the road I will prep for a crisis, especially if a democrat defeats Trump in 3 years.


You still think the R team is different from the D team? The only difference is the mascot.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 19, 7:53pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

lostand confused says
Stocks flying high-maybe the repeat of 1929s?


Stocks are high-flying on collapsing realized volatility. It is a zombie market.

Meanwhile, in crypto-land...
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 19, 8:00pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Strategist says
Yes, there is a difference. What Wall Street perceives, is where stocks go. Where stocks go, is where the economy goes. Therefore what Wall Street perceives is what matters.
Wall Street backs the R Team by default.


Don't get me wrong, I am fine with Trump.

It feels as if the market is just looking for an excuse to creep up. The rally looks peculiar.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 19, 8:16pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

mell says
Only if one of the three things happen

1) A massive crypto-crash
2) Continued fast rising rates
3) Massive layoffs esp. in tech / bubble sectors

Currently no signs, though rates started rising.


All can happen at the same time, together with high inflation.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 19, 8:48pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

anon_17263 says
I am prepping for either inflation or liquidity crisis.


Even hyperinflation is possible. The ask-less market will definitely have liquidity problems.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 19, 9:07pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Patrick says
Tell me more. Stocks are frothy for sure, but even so, the p/e's are nothing like what they were in the dot-com bubble.


It does not feel like a bubble because there is no volatility (as opposed to Bitcoin).

Also, the cross-sectional behavior is strange. Most of the gains come from a few stocks.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 19, 10:02pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Rew says
I think you are right in that this is just a huge imbalance, but not real pinpoint bubble.


This can be more dangerous than just an equities bubble because so many things are linked. For example, risk parity coupled with short volatility. The gearing effect cannot be underestimated.

The whole world is short gamma. If something gets tripped everything may go the other way.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 21, 12:54pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Patrick says
This is why globalization is a disaster for ordinary working people.


But they are all globalists, just different flavors.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 21, 12:56pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Quigley says
Have you considered that in the current economic climate, hyperinflation might be exactly the thing we need to escape the coming debt crisis?


Hyperinflation is usually caused by a complete loss of faith in the currency. It will be tough for everyone without productive real assets.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2017 Dec 21, 10:09pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Patrick says
What do you mean? That working people are also globalists because they benefit from cheap foreign consumer goods which destroy their own jobs?


Both candidates were globalists, just different kind.

That said, I am quite happy that Trump won.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 24, 6:29pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

On BART. Let me type a response when I get to a restaurant.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 24, 7:31pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

Try ivolatility.com

You might want to focus on:

1) the shape of the volatility surface (3D plot of IV against Delta and time to expiration)

2) the change of that surface over time

3) the relationship between ATM IV and %change in underlying

Unless you are a market maker Greeks won't do you much good.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 24, 7:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

You may want to take a look at this dataset.

https://www.quandl.com/data/OPT-ORATS-Option-Volatility-Surfaces
That should save you from having to process a ungodly amount of dirty raw data.
  Peter P   ignore (0)   2018 Jan 24, 7:39pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote      

If you want to know how expensive an option is, IV is the way to go.

Historical volatility is about the past. Implied volatility is strongly correlated to historical volatility with some adjustments like tails, gaps, and other intangibles.

Academic models like GARCH will not help your trading.