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indigenous   2013 Apr 7, 3:37pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Goran

I think the market for real estate is going to go down nation wide. actually the whole economy is going to have some cataclysmic events. IMO that is.

If things get bad So Cal is going to be one of the worst places to be.

indigenous   2013 Apr 8, 12:08am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Adarmiento

I just think your perspective is too narrow.

The problem is that 200 billion a year goes to debt service at 1.5% interest. When that goes to the 5% historic norm that 200 billion is going to be 700 billion plus. At that point something has to give big time.

The Austrians indicate that there is a bubble with bonds. Most bubbles are created by the wonderful gubment programs such as treasury bonds, student loans, healthcare. The dot com was not a government bubble but the housing bubble was as was the crash of 29.

All of this is self correcting if it is allowed to run it's course but the gubment has been meddling so look out...

indigenous   2013 Apr 8, 2:39am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

I don't think so

indigenous   2013 Apr 8, 3:04am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

i wog

I know you think you are right but what you state is patently not true. And certainly muddies the waters for anyone trying to figure out the future.

indigenous   2013 Apr 8, 3:09am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

S Face

Not sure I completely agree but thanks for the real answer.

indigenous   2013 Apr 8, 1:51pm   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        

I wandered into this forum because the owner of this website was on Chris Martenson.

I have tried to reconcile what most of you have said with my own thinking. But I can't. You appear to ignore the posts by the host about Gold's price increase and bubbles.

I will say that you have been good for me to check my own thinking and references. Which I have done and have concluded that you are basically bay area Keynesians and are not understandable on my frequency.

indigenous   2013 Apr 8, 9:54pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

But many of you scoff at at a connection between interest rates an Fed spending or that interest rates are going to go up at all.

I listened to Paul Krugman yesterday stating that Japan was going to launch a new round of Quantitative Easing paraphrasing this time it is going to work. Hmm after 20 yr more of the same is going to work? Obama and Bush and their Stimulus has not fared any better in other words similarly to FDR.

Yes I'm saying it because it is a bad thing. If nothing else when the interest rate returns to historic norms the debt service is going to go to half of the revenue per year.

Your graph indicates that debt is growing and a lower interest rate, ok?

At 44:50 Krugman utters his Nobel winning wisdom:

http://abcnews.go.com/watch/this-week/SH559082/VDKA0_0w0mshff/this-week-0407-the-white-house-on-north-korean-threats

indigenous   2013 Apr 9, 2:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Have a little respect for the dead.

IMO She was a great lady that accomplished much.

indigenous   2013 Apr 9, 12:54pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Finehoe

You really hold Krugman's take up as anything other than something to wipe your ass with? This guy won the Nobel prize and as indicated on the thread I started he extols Japan's decision to spend yet more money like this time it is going to help. What is that they say about insanity? 20 years of... give me a break.

I'm ignorant of the stats regarding Maggie's policies. But so is Krugman the only difference is that he doesn't know it.

But Reagan created a boom following his policies much as Calvin Coolidge did after his wonderful contributions. Is Krugman really so obtuse as to not connect the dots from tax policy following Reagan and I suspect Thatcher? Yet he thinks that the policy of Japan for 20 fing years is not enough time to prove the absurdity of his Keynesian Krap? But now all of a sudden it is going to make a difference.

Like I said have a little respect for the dead because she sure as hell contributed a lot more to the world than someone who flatters himself with a picture of tiger who clearly is more of domesticated variety. Unlike the Iron Lady who earned the name.

indigenous   2013 Apr 9, 2:11pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

bgamall4

Krugman is the consummate Keynesian, they don't get any more Keynesian than him.

The fact is the Glass Steagall did not have anything to do with OTC derivatives as it never regulated them. So repealing it was irrelevant.

But repealing Glass Steagall was useful in the fact that it then allowed B of A to acquire Merrill Lynch, Morgan-Chase was able to acquire Bear Sterns this would not have occurred if Glass Steagall was not repealed.

What did cause a problem was the CRA where banks were forced to make loans they never would have made especially if they had to carry the paper, but instead were allowed to push it off on Fannie and Freddy.

What Reagan did was to cut taxes by 25% this led to 25 years of prosperity and more tax revenue because the GDP increased. But this is known and accepted by conservatives. I'm sure Maggie did much the same.

One other point, everything that exists in the world today was created by those people in the graveyard so have a little respect otherwise you are an ingrate.

indigenous   2013 Apr 9, 2:30pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Bigsby

I'm ignorant of the stats in England but not of her Austrian economic philosophy that left the country a better place from what I hear.

Bellingham Bill

The CRA was started by Carter and exploded under Clinton and Barney and Chris. Nope that were not Reagan.

indigenous   2013 Apr 9, 2:45pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Bill

It might behoove you to listen up. Anybody who claims Reagan was responsible for the bubble most assuredly does not understand the domestic economy.

What I will say about Japan is that Austrian economics applies there as well. The primary problem is the notion that the government can control the market. It cannot and whenever it does it inevitably creates bubbles as Obama and Bush have done with our economy.

indigenous   2013 Apr 9, 11:14pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

bgamall4 says:

"guess you didn't know that the Financial Modernization Act was accompanied by the Commodities Futures Modernization Act.

Together, they allowed the housing bubble. And they were twins. Nice try though, Indy."

Glass himself tried to repeal the act in 1935. Elizabeth Warren and her ilk talk endlessly about this. Derivatives were hedged so the actual losses were a fraction of what the media loves to sensationalize about. So now we are to believe Frank Dodd will fix this just like Sarbanes Oxley fixed Enron type crap.

Again the real problem was the CRA which is supposed to fixed by the same two monkeys that caused it.

Most bubbles are created by the goverment. Which creates irrational exuberance. In the 1600s this occurred over tulip bulbs to an extreme just like the housing bubble that occurred.

Bigsby states

"You heard wrong."

Care to elaborate?

indigenous   2013 Apr 9, 11:40pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

What I heard was that she instituted free market policies that raised the productivity of Great Britain

You will see this as propaganda but I do not:

&feature=player_embedded

indigenous   2013 Apr 9, 11:53pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Bigsby says

She destroyed British industry

How did she do this?Bigsby says

I don't think those 13% unemployed were being very productive.

Similar to the real 13% unemployment we have here? Opposite policies similar results apparently?Bigsby says

And what about the huge changes in technology that occurred during her time in power?

You tell me?

indigenous   2013 Apr 10, 12:23am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Bigsby

I'm not inclined to get you to smell the coffee as clearly you prefer Kool aide.

In my 5 minutes of reading up on it Maggie privatized "vast swatches" of industry, if you know a modicum of economics you know that this does not destroy it quite the opposite.

She was very hard on unions this to helps the economy a tremendous amount. Here in Calif Stockton, San Bernardino, and other coming soon are declaring bankruptcy because of the unions.

She tightened money controls to control inflation which believe or not is not a natural state of affairs as the U.S. had ZERO inflation before the central bank.

Thanks for urging me to read up on Maggie I find her delightful.

PS there was an increase of unemployment when she dismantled the unions but it returned to the lower level by the time she left office.

indigenous   2013 Apr 10, 12:28am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

finehoe says

The same can be said for anyone who thinks the Community Reinvestment Act caused the housing bubble.

Au contraire, same goes for you as Bigsby I have no interest it getting you to smell the coffee as clearly you prefer Kool aide.

It is just a waste of time.

indigenous   2013 Apr 10, 1:22am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Bigsby says

Err, I lived through what she did so it has nothing to do with drinking the kool-aid

Yet you don't introduce anything to support your conclusion?

Poverty is a statistical category that is used by class warfare people. Very few people stay in a category for any length of time rich or poor.

Unemployment might be more indicative of how benefits are paid, with this country when benefit were extended to 99 weeks unemployment did not change and people miraculous found jobs at 99 weeks.

The facts regarding class warfare are not used as that does not serve the politicians purpose which is to create straw man so he can defend you against it.

indigenous   2013 Apr 10, 2:00am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

finehoe says

I know conservatives such as yourself like to live in a fact-free zone, but....

You are long on facts but short on understanding

bgamall4 says

The guy in charge of implimenting the law said government exists to help the bankers

So then it must be true? Government is always here to help you.

What both of you are missing is that the banks really are forced to make loans by force (by definition government is force) which they went along with as they were allowed to turn the paper over to Fannie and Freddy.

Another thing that you are missing is the idea of irrational exuberance which causes the dynamics to change.

Another thing that you are missing is that all economic growth is caused by investment and end of this comes about by over-investment. Which is the case with the housing bubble and the current Bond bubble. Problem is that the process is perverted by the central bank and we can help mentality.

indigenous   2013 Apr 10, 2:48am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

bgamall4 says

o, this was planned way before Fannie and Freddie's involvement. You need to read this article too:

bgamall4

I scanned your article Greenspan was definitely complicit and probably more than anyone else.

You guys are convinced that a conspiracy of big business creates this that you are blinded to any other reasons. Do you think Goldman or Gm would be able to pull off any of this without cronyism with the White House? Who cares how greedy they are, we just don't want to finance their greed.

indigenous   2013 Apr 10, 3:03am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

bgamall4 says

hil Gramm and Bill Clinton

There is more to know about Glass Steagall. Even Glass tried to repeal it in 1935 and it really was irrelevant to the housing bubble. I will agree to disagree on that.

I hope you don't think Dodd and Frank were innocent, notice nether of them are running for reelection.

The conflict is created by someone who benefits from conflict just like wars and defense contractors and marriage and divorce lawyers. So they will do their best to obfuscate. When someone starts advocating for victims it is time to start looking hard at the facts. Cuz without victims they have no meal ticket.

indigenous   2013 Apr 10, 3:17am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

bgamall4 says

The bankers control the government, not the other way around.

And that is the rub. Simultaneously, if you get what I'm saying no explanation is necessary if you don't no explanation is possible.

Have a nice day

indigenous   2013 Apr 10, 3:19am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

FortWayne says

Collusion

And Co opting

indigenous   2013 Apr 10, 4:54am   ↑ like (3)   ↑ dislike (3)     quote        

If you cannot believe CNBC who can you believe?

The Germans are the poorest wow how can they possibly get that wrong?

indigenous   2013 Apr 10, 10:31am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

CL says

The "free market" is a scam.

I'm kind of thinking that that scam has raised the standard of living of the world for at least a few hundred years.

On the other hand maybe you are right it was all created by government?

indigenous   2013 Apr 10, 11:06am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

bgamall4 says

No, real savings and investment raised the standard of living.

Maybe there is hope for you yet

bgamall4 says

and bankers have done a lot to steal wealth that otherwise would have been kept by the lower classes as manufacturing and other industries prospered.

But you don't think the guberment did any of this stealing???

indigenous   2013 Apr 11, 1:03am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Income has always been unequal and it always will be.

The graph does mean a whole lot to me because I don't see the context.

Automation has a lot to do with corporate profits as does off-shoring. But keep in mind that off-shoring creates jobs as the pie gets bigger it is not a zero sum game. The other benefit of off shoring is that people can buy goods at lower cost which in effect raises their standard of living.

But the shift of wealth to the government workers is substantial. The consensus is that the average worker makes double his private sector counterpart. This has a lot to do with public sector collective bargaining.

So you can get a job from a rich guy or a government. It is not Tweedledee and Tweedledum. The difference being that the government does not create any value the rich guy does.

indigenous   2013 Apr 11, 3:12am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

bgamall4 says

Much of capitalism would fail if it didn't have government contracts or food stamps/ebt.

And I thought you were starting to get it. Sigh

indigenous   2013 Apr 11, 3:13am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Why countries rarely survive democracy

indigenous   2013 Apr 11, 3:37am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

bgamall4 says

No, you libertarians don't get it.

As the pschs would say "I think you are projecting"

Do you really think that if the derivatives market was 700 trillion requiring 12 trillion in collateral, that it would not be on the front page every Fing day?

My understanding of is that the media talks about sensationalism of these numbers but in reality the numbers are hedged similar to what a bookie does. And that is why you don't hear about now.

indigenous   2013 Apr 11, 4:33am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

bgamall4 says

If everyone knew that the TBTF banks were powderkegs

That is not my understanding.

Here is a video that explains it quite well. Notice that by definition swaps are a hedge.

http://www.investopedia.com/video/play/swaps/

indigenous   2013 Apr 11, 5:06am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

bgamall4 says

No, the banks are all on one side of the bet. Interest rate swaps are not a hedge.

So you are saying the bankers got drunk one day and said ok I'm all in on this because uncle Benny will protect me.

Hmm seems a little implausible don't you think?

indigenous   2013 Apr 11, 5:30am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

bgamall4 says

if they want a loan to take the fixed rate side of the swap if they want the loan is placing huge demand on collateral.

Say What?

Dude I'm no expert at this but what you are saying does not make sense.

By definition a Swap is to exchange comparative advantage in interest rates

BTW comparative advantage is what has raised the standard of living for the world. It would behoove you to understand this.

indigenous   2013 Apr 11, 5:41am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

i'm not going to read 48 pages about this

What you are saying conflicts with what I have read from reliable sources.

indigenous   2013 Apr 11, 5:48am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

bgamall4 says

Now you are being stupid. J

Note to self I'm being stupid...

indigenous   2013 Apr 11, 5:58am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Never argue with an idiot...

indigenous   2013 Apr 11, 6:56am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

CaptainShuddup says

Capitalism fails when the Government looks out more for major corporate interests.

Yup but to be clear this is crony capitalism, ie not a free market. Mexico is the king of this with a true oligarchy that affords Carlos Slim one of the richest men in the world status

To me it started before this with a culture from hundreds of years ago set in place by the Spanish who did the same thing in the Philippines.

Since the middle class came into existence after world war 2 I wonder if the new middle class will be a world wide phenomenon.

indigenous   2013 Apr 11, 7:01am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

bgamall4 says

That is exactly what I am arguing when I am saying the crony capitalists force companies to take the fixed higher interest rate on a swap in order to secure a loan.

A swap by definition requires 2 parties. I don't think the FED does swaps.

You are useful because I have check your comments to the facts, but so far the facts appear to be winning.

indigenous   2013 Apr 12, 2:19am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

It is nice to read Senator Warren is vomiting, god knows she has made enough other people vomit.

indigenous   2013 Apr 15, 12:26pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Is that Muddy Waters?

That was good

Yup the life time of the author + 70 is too long.

It is somewhat specious to think that ideas come solely from one individual. Adam Smith or Issac Newton borrowed heavily from their contemporaries...

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