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smaulgld's comments

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smaulgld   2013 Jun 23, 4:23am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

I expect for a short while there will be a rush to get homes before rates rise. This will probably be a mistake as prices will fall as rates rise

smaulgld   2013 Jun 23, 6:04am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

the window to sell at peak prices appears to be closing..

smaulgld   2013 Jun 23, 7:37am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

the sky may not be falling but the storm clouds are there for all to see..

smaulgld   2013 Jun 23, 8:11am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Prices in california are far higher vs income levels than say Texas where the price of a home is less and the unemployment rate is lower.

In 2000/2001 California had net migration to the state, now its losing people.

California is its own special set of disaster. The blog post just addressed the national situation with rising interest rates and increased inventory.

People are fleeing california and college graduates there like every where else are having a hard time finding jobs and have tons of student loan debt. How are they going to be able to afford houses, especially in California.

http://smaulgld.com/student-loans-and-unemployment-are-holding-back-the-economy-and-real-estate-market/

smaulgld   2013 Jun 23, 8:49am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Even if that is 100 pct true only rich people are moving to california and only poor people are leaving that doesnt bode well because there are not enough rich people to populate the largest state
And without poorer people who will do the work for the rich people
That argument may work for parts of sam francisco and palo alto but not the entire state

smaulgld   2013 Jun 24, 4:17am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

donjumpsuit
"Here comes the fictitious appraisals and subprime loans!"
yes they will come as will ARMS when rates go higher-that will signal the blow off top/crackup boom before the crash

smaulgld   2013 Jun 24, 5:28am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

you raise a good point- a point that is made in the blog post-if you rent out your home and receive income then it is an investment. A primary residence is not

smaulgld   2013 Jun 24, 6:12am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

robertoaribas-I agree for most people who don't rent out their homes a house is not an investment. As you describe your situation, when you rent out the house, its an investment

smaulgld   2013 Jun 25, 3:00am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Varmint
Thanks-not a big fan of her either, but thought the quote was appropriate. Like your Caddy shack icon!

smaulgld   2013 Jun 25, 3:11am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

David
Thanks
Not sure there is much juice left in the real estate market other than a final rush by some buyers to get in before rates rise further.

smaulgld   2013 Jun 25, 10:42pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

GDP down! Taper much?

smaulgld   2013 Jun 25, 11:25pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

consumption desires are limitless-there needs to be the ability to pay for consumption and that is done with savings and production.

If consumption falls in a consumption based economy there is nothing left

smaulgld   2013 Jun 25, 11:48pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

I mean that consumption should be based on savings and production, not on borrowing excessive amounts.

The trade deficit is a good example of consuming more than producing.

The answer to fixing the economy isnt to buy more stuff with borrowed or printed money

smaulgld   2013 Jun 26, 12:33am   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        

A start to reducing wealth inequality is to stop QE which gives banks corporations and wealthy individuals an unfair advantage by giving extremely low interest loans so they can buy assets at low costs

smaulgld   2013 Jun 26, 12:48am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

True
tax policy may play a role in making some people wealthier if they get tax breaks but tax policy doesnt make the poor poorer if they dont pay taxes
Eliminating all deductions and credits would help
Lower rates for all and no need to fill out forms
Cant solve taxes without solving spending- we do too much of both and the money ends up in the wrong hands

smaulgld   2013 Jun 26, 10:43am   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        

If social security already protects us against tossing disposable income into chasing up home values, do we need mandatory retirement accounts too?
If so how large of a percentage of income would they be?

smaulgld   2013 Jun 26, 9:11pm   ↑ like (3)   ↑ dislike (3)     quote        

If you out source that responsibility to a third party they generally not a better fiduciary than yourself.

smaulgld   2013 Jun 26, 9:59pm   ↑ like (3)   ↑ dislike (3)     quote        

It doesnt make sense to take someone's money because they might not be responsible with it and give it to a proven irresponsible party

smaulgld   2013 Jun 26, 11:34pm   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        

Each person owes approx $50K of the national debt if you wish to calculate it that way

http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/my-money/2012/10/04/16-things-you-need-to-know-about-government-debt" title="US debt per citizen

smaulgld   2013 Jun 27, 7:33pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Any guesses on when/if the taper happens and by how much?

smaulgld   2013 Jun 27, 7:40pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

another shot at a defnition
Investment- something that provides income- not something that might one day provide income
Asset- something you own that you take care of or store and derive value during its owner ship (provide shelter, get transportation gain enjoyment)
Car is an asset /taxi an investment
Pet pigs are an asset/pigs raised for pork are an investment

smaulgld   2013 Jun 27, 7:42pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Patriot bonds come to mind- come to the aid of your country/get the safety of US treasuries
Not sure how they would pitch distress mortgage backed securities!

smaulgld   2013 Jun 27, 7:44pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

The data this week for employment and GDP were not consistent with the recovery mantra
Taper QE and that GDP number goes negative
Hiring would stop as it probably already is in preparation for the affordable health care act in 2014

smaulgld   2013 Jun 27, 7:46pm   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

People moving in and out of houses is not the basis of a strong economy
If may be reflective of one but not the underlying basis

smaulgld   2013 Jun 27, 7:51pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Deflation clearly would have been the immediate and natural economic reaction in 2007/8
But for bailouts, stimulus and endless QE we would have already gone through a deflationary recession/depression for a couple of years as the economy restructured
Now we have five years of propping up existing institutions that would have failed - gm and banks and are propping up new speculative ventures -tesla, wind and solar companies
Well never know what economy might have emerged if not for the stimulus bailouts and QE but we wouldnt have a housing bubble!

smaulgld   2013 Jun 27, 7:57pm   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

The rush to buy real estate before rates rise further may already be over
Unless of course the fed tapers the taper talk and rates come down

smaulgld   2013 Jun 28, 12:29am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

I would too as long as inflation is below that number

smaulgld   2013 Jun 28, 12:30am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

and they didnt seem to be heading any higher...

smaulgld   2013 Jun 28, 1:05am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Silver up 4.5% today...

smaulgld   2013 Jun 28, 2:47am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

dollar is up too....

smaulgld   2013 Jun 30, 4:26am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

single payer would have faced a tougher task to pass than obama care which passed by one vote

smaulgld   2013 Jun 30, 5:08am   ↑ like (0)   ↑ dislike (0)     quote        

Bernanke is certainly aware of this- I think he is just talking taper-remember he said he would taper if the economy improved as per Fed forecasts-it wont, and he'll keep up the stimulus

smaulgld   2013 Jun 30, 7:54am   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        

yep he even convinced Dennis Kuchinich to go along.

The plan was ill conceived, rushed through, has unintended consequences (though predictable), needed the Supreme Court to save it as a tax even though it was not drafted as such and in the words of Nancy Pelosi they had to pass the bill to see what was in it.

Poorly done.

smaulgld   2013 Jul 6, 1:17am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

195,000 jobs created in May but many part time, seasonal and in lowly paid sectors of the economy

smaulgld   2013 Jul 6, 1:51am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

just in time employment, unallocated work pool

smaulgld   2013 Jul 6, 2:26am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

Swebb

Actually no and its covered in the podcast and blog post

The bulk of the new part time jobs are in service sectors where the company needs the man hours.

"that part time work is increasing not because productivity is increasing and workers can complete their jobs in few hours but that employers require staff on site for a certain amount of hours and can cost effectively fill these hours with part time workers."

smaulgld   2013 Jul 6, 3:24am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

interesting that the obama administration announced last week that they were delaying the implementation of the employer mandate to Jan 2014

smaulgld   2013 Jul 6, 4:14am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

More part time workers means lower incomes a fact that was obsfucated by the latest jobs report that wages went up ten cents an hour.

Employers can afford to pay part time workers slightly higher pay as they don't have to pay benefits

smaulgld   2013 Jul 6, 5:00am   ↑ like (2)   ↑ dislike (2)     quote        

the number of full time jobs created should be the headline number not the total number of jobs

smaulgld   2013 Jul 6, 6:30am   ↑ like (1)   ↑ dislike (1)     quote        

I am pretty sure the BLS counts the number of people who are employed as they also calculate the cumulative hours that people work

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