WatchAfter much agonizing, I've decided to sell half my position in gold.
Looking at the recent parabolic chart, the extreme volatility, the fact that gold went into free-fall after making a new high in Asia last night, the fact that Platinum was only able to clear $2200 during its bubble, and the fact that sentiment seems to be overwhelmingly bullish no matter where I look, I've decided that we might not see $2000 and I am selling gold accordingly.
This might be a short term peak like silver had in April, or it might be the whole enchilada, or I might be nuts. You decide!
This is the first time I've EVER sold gold and it goes against all my gold bug training.
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Monterey, CA
Physical gold? What's your take on silver
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joshuatrio says
No, electronic gold. What physical gold I still have is still in the bank.
I think silver is married to gold. If this really is the final top, silver is going back to $20-$25 with much haste.
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I think its the wrong move. The general public has yet to participate and wekve yet to convert a single believer on this forum in the past 3 years. There is still plenty of upside with limited downside imo. I always maintained i start selling after we take out 2000.
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Bellingham, WA
I think you made the right call.
Can't go broke taking gains off the table.
Bulls win. Bears win. Pigs get slaughtered.
Some other hackneyed saying here.
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theoakman says
I bet you're not the only gold owner who feels this way...
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Menlo Park, CA
Bellingham Bob says
You can't lose by winning.
Anyway, I agree. After such a run-up, best to take some profits and be certain of them.
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terriDeaner says
Doesn't really matter to me. I took more than enough profits on mining stocks to be fully satisfied with my plays in this bull market. Furthermore, I'm sure plenty of gold owners also fully intended to start selling at $1000. Regardless of what I do, all the metals I hold now are purely profit, as my related investments in the sector have financed themselves and my metals purchases. Had I been Wall St. yahoo and went out on margin, I'd be retired comfortably.
Gold will take out $2000 and go much higher. I expected this to happen by 2013 to 2014. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow.
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theoakman says
That's certainly possible, but I think there will be a steep dip before that happens.
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terriDeaner says
It wouldn't be surprising. We saw the same thing happen when gold hit $1030 and subsequently dropped below $700. Regardless, anyone who got in the game at the right time doesn't really care. If you bought gold at $600, it's no sweat of your back watching it dip from $1900 to $1500.
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"I made my money by selling too soon. "
- Bernard Baruch
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The Mad Hedge Fund Trader also thinks gold hit a top http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/august-25-2011-2.html
Though there are few such opinions.
I sold some silver at $47 due to Puru Saxena's article http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/puru-saxena/silver-key-intra-day-reversal which contains the motivating phrase "take some money off the table."
Hope your proceeds went into anything except cash!
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iwog says
just curious, do you use goldmoney or bullionvault?
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MyNameHere says
Everybody's got an angle...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-06/roubini-says-global-economic-slowdown-accelerating-next-financial-crisis.html
Roubini said if he had large amounts of money to invest, he would “mostly keep it in cash,” especially in dollars, as the U.S. currency tends to strengthen during financial crises.
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If you REALLY needed the money then sure. But still think gold will hit 2K by the end of the year.
Remember we still have that debt commission in October that has to make a plan and it's made of those on the far left and right..that alone showing further gridlock might create a support level.
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Bellingham, WA
mdovell says
LOL
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terriDeaner says
I wouldn't listen to Roubini. He was sitting in equities in 2008 when they crashed. He said oil wouldn't go over $40 in 2009. He said could wouldn't go past $1100 and he claimed it would drop well below that. The guy has no clue how to invest.
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theoakman says
I'm fairly certain the S&P will hit 2000. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow.
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corntrollio says
Good for you. I'm not sure the point of your post. I've always put a time frame on that prediction, and you conveniently left it off the quote. It just so happens, my prediction, which has been consistent since 2008 is going to happen 2 years earlier than I predicted back then.
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theoakman says
Oh, I was definitely being a smartass. I haven't been posting here for too long and am not privy to your consistent predictions. Care to point me to them? At what price did you buy? How "all in" did you go?
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corntrollio says
already did in the last thread
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=968746
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At what price will you buy back in?
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You said that you also have physical. Which do you prefer, paper gold or physical? And if you do prefer physical, why did you buy paper gold.
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komputodo says
electronic gold is not paper. it is allocated storage in my understanding. the custodian actually stores physical in a vault in your name.
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austrian_man says
Dear Giuseppe, I have EVERY OUNCE of your gold and that of every other customer in my vault. Trust me. -Guido
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Vicente says
So you think Goldmoney and Bullionvault are fraud? They are very good to establish trading positions. Obviously you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket.
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austrian_man says
Dunno, not familiar with them. There is certainly precedent here from olden times to Morgan Stanley in 2005:
"Morgan Stanley told clients it was selling them precious metals that they would own in full and that the company would store. But Morgan Stanley either made no investment specifically on behalf of those clients, or it made entirely different investments of lesser value and security"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/06/12/idUSN1228014520070612
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Vicente says
OK, From my research - Goldmoney and Bullionvault are very commonly used for establishing trading positions. It is very easy to setup accounts online and start trading physical. The spreads are very attractive, you don't have to fork a 10% or more premium to get the physical. You won't have the physical in your hand per se, which is why they should be treated as trading positions. Plus, they allow you to store the metal outside US.
Here's a link comparing both: https://www.goldinmind.com/how-to-buy-gold/reviews-ratings/bullionvault-vs-goldmoney-review.html
Here's another link that's coming up, which seems to be good for small investors: http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/08/treasure-chest-2-game-changer.html
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Patrick says
A bit off topic. I remember when house prices just started to grow insanely fast. At that time many folks started selling their homes and went to rent because they could not imagine prices going up much further. That was about year 1998/2000. That bubble almost tripled to 2006.
Of course with gold it's probably different. I don't see government going all out to support it's price.
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I have trust issues. That's why I hold physical.
IWOG: tell us at what price you'll buy back in.
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middleman's website
I feel gold is a horrible long term investment. It's been great in the short term, however, the question is when do you take profits and exit the casino? It looks like you made the choice many people have trouble doing (which will be to their demise) and made some good money. Could it go up? Sure. But now you can sleep better.
Now take your wife on a date dammit! Celebrate your profits.
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You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table.
There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done.
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middleman says
That is because it is not an investment, as it does not grow nor does it have cash flow.
It is just a thing that is regarded as money. Kind of like, you can stash your money in different kinds of money, like USD or CAD or Euro, yen, etc., or in gold or silver.
If you wanna invest, get something that can grow like a business (or shares in a business) or something that has a cash flow (again, a business or shares in one or a rental or renting your money to someone else for interest). Or even something that can grow like your income if you invest in your education.
But if you trade your fiat currency for gold, it is not investing. It is just trading one form of money for another.
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It's at $1846 now. Ding ding ding. Ooh you're a winner!
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Some of us don't trust the stock market. Interest rates on CDs are a joke. Real estate is worse. What's left? Those that bought physical silver at the end of 2008 for $10.60 are up now about 300% compared to the 5-6% they would have earned in CDs.
At the same time, those that bought gold then at $840.00 would be up aound 125%. If we sold our PMs now for cash, we'd be back to earning 1% a year. So we hold on and hope for the best.
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komputodo says
I'm not sure speculation on commodities is the answer to that question, although it seems to have worked in the short-term for those buying gold and silver.
There are a variety of investments available that don't involve as risky a bet as commodities and still get better returns than the current return on short-term CDs. Not trusting the stock market seems sort of silly if you're looking at a full investment portfolio -- do you avoid using 401(k)s and similar instruments like IRAs?
If you are using November or December 2008 as a marking period, there were still CDs available at 4.75% for 3 year periods and above 5% for 5-10 years periods at that point, so I don't see that as a valid criticism. Today, I see 2.45% for 4 years, 2.68% for 5 years, 2.75% for 7 years, and 3% for 10 years, so it's definitely lower, but ideally you aren't buying gold today either because its possible return in 3 years is much lower than it was in late 2008, since it has gone up so much since then.
I'm definitely not seeing how the commodities market (which is open to massive amounts of speculation) is more trustworthy than the stock market. At least there are regulations that require listed companies to be truthful with their disclosures, but there isn't really an analog for commodities.
To another point, if you think earning 300% every 3 years is sustainable, then you probably aren't thinking critically enough.
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corntrollio says
Are to referring to this type of thing:
CSK Auto to pay $20.9M, settle securities charges
Retailer CSK Auto to pay $20.9 million to settle charges of securities-law violations
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komputodo says
O RLY?You're talking about 1 company where 3 top execs have pled guilty to criminal charges. That's not easily generalizable. Also note that their stock was purchased by O'Reilly at a 63% premium, and O'Reilly's stock has gone up over 100% since the purchase, so if you held on, you still made good money.
I don't understand the argument that investing in commodities is somehow more trustworthy. Someone would have to work hard to justify that opinion. You can easily diversify your investments, and in current times, there are many many more possibilities available to you than were available even 15-20 years ago.