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Sold 50% of my gold position today @ $1890

By iwog   Follow   Tue, 6 Sep 2011, 12:53pm   3,593 views   37 comments
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After much agonizing, I've decided to sell half my position in gold.

Looking at the recent parabolic chart, the extreme volatility, the fact that gold went into free-fall after making a new high in Asia last night, the fact that Platinum was only able to clear $2200 during its bubble, and the fact that sentiment seems to be overwhelmingly bullish no matter where I look, I've decided that we might not see $2000 and I am selling gold accordingly.

This might be a short term peak like silver had in April, or it might be the whole enchilada, or I might be nuts. You decide!

This is the first time I've EVER sold gold and it goes against all my gold bug training.

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1. joshuatrio Follow Befriend 41 threads 704 comments Monterey, CA

   1   12:57pm Tue 6 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Physical gold? What's your take on silver

2. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,654 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   2   1:05pm Tue 6 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   joshuatrio says Physical gold? What's your take on silver No, electronic gold. What physical gold I still have is still in the bank. I think silver is married to gold. If this really is the final top, silver is going back to $20-$25 with much haste.

3. theoakman Follow Befriend 2 threads 646 comments

   3   1:14pm Tue 6 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I think its the wrong move. The general public has yet to participate and wekve yet to convert a single believer on this forum in the past 3 years. There is still plenty of upside with limited downside imo. I always maintained i start selling after we take out 2000.

4. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

   4   1:15pm Tue 6 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I think you made the right call. Can't go broke taking gains off the table. Bulls win. Bears win. Pigs get slaughtered. Some other hackneyed saying here.

5. terriDeaner Follow Befriend (7) 70 threads 1,151 comments

   5   1:40pm Tue 6 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   theoakman says I always maintained i start selling after we take out 2000. I bet you're not the only gold owner who feels this way...

6. Patrick Follow Befriend (54) 5,240 threads 6,175 comments 46 male Menlo Park, CA Premium

   6   2:16pm Tue 6 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Bellingham Bob says Some other hackneyed saying here. You can't lose by winning. Anyway, I agree. After such a run-up, best to take some profits and be certain of them.

7. theoakman Follow Befriend 2 threads 646 comments

   7   3:21pm Tue 6 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   terriDeaner says theoakman says I always maintained i start selling after we take out 2000. I bet you're not the only gold owner who feels this way... Doesn't really matter to me. I took more than enough profits on mining stocks to be fully satisfied with my plays in this bull market. Furthermore, I'm sure plenty of gold owners also fully intended to start selling at $1000. Regardless of what I do, all the metals I hold now are purely profit, as my related investments in the sector have financed themselves and my metals purchases. Had I been Wall St. yahoo and went out on margin, I'd be retired comfortably. Gold will take out $2000 and go much higher. I expected this to happen by 2013 to 2014. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow.

8. terriDeaner Follow Befriend (7) 70 threads 1,151 comments

   8   3:26pm Tue 6 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   theoakman says Gold will take out $2000 and go much higher. I expected this to happen by 2013 to 2014. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow. That's certainly possible, but I think there will be a steep dip before that happens.

9. theoakman Follow Befriend 2 threads 646 comments

   9   3:59pm Tue 6 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   terriDeaner says theoakman says Gold will take out $2000 and go much higher. I expected this to happen by 2013 to 2014. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow. That's certainly possible, but I think there will be a steep dip before that happens. It wouldn't be surprising. We saw the same thing happen when gold hit $1030 and subsequently dropped below $700. Regardless, anyone who got in the game at the right time doesn't really care. If you bought gold at $600, it's no sweat of your back watching it dip from $1900 to $1500.

10. thunderlips11 Follow Befriend (13) 61 threads 2,708 comments Premium

    10   8:17pm Tue 6 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   "I made my money by selling too soon. " - Bernard Baruch

11. MyNameHere Follow Befriend 1 comments

    11   8:28pm Tue 6 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The Mad Hedge Fund Trader also thinks gold hit a top http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/august-25-2011-2.html Though there are few such opinions. I sold some silver at $47 due to Puru Saxena's article http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/puru-saxena/silver-key-intra-day-reversal which contains the motivating phrase "take some money off the table." Hope your proceeds went into anything except cash!

12. uomo_senza_nome Follow Befriend (13) 787 threads 1,542 comments

    12   9:25pm Tue 6 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says No, electronic gold. just curious, do you use goldmoney or bullionvault?

13. terriDeaner Follow Befriend (7) 70 threads 1,151 comments

    13   9:32pm Tue 6 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   MyNameHere says Hope your proceeds went into anything except cash! Everybody's got an angle... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-06/roubini-says-global-economic-slowdown-accelerating-next-financial-crisis.html Roubini said if he had large amounts of money to invest, he would “mostly keep it in cash,” especially in dollars, as the U.S. currency tends to strengthen during financial crises.

14. mdovell Follow Befriend (4) 28 threads 776 comments

    14   8:00am Wed 7 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   If you REALLY needed the money then sure. But still think gold will hit 2K by the end of the year. Remember we still have that debt commission in October that has to make a plan and it's made of those on the far left and right..that alone showing further gridlock might create a support level.

15. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    15   9:23am Wed 7 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   mdovell says far left LOL

16. theoakman Follow Befriend 2 threads 646 comments

    16   1:51pm Wed 7 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   terriDeaner says MyNameHere says Hope your proceeds went into anything except cash! Everybody's got an angle... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-06/roubini-says-global-economic-slowdown-accelerating-next-financial-crisis.html Roubini said if he had large amounts of money to invest, he would “mostly keep it in cash,” especially in dollars, as the U.S. currency tends to strengthen during financial crises. I wouldn't listen to Roubini. He was sitting in equities in 2008 when they crashed. He said oil wouldn't go over $40 in 2009. He said could wouldn't go past $1100 and he claimed it would drop well below that. The guy has no clue how to invest.

17. corntrollio Follow Befriend (5) 27 threads 2,073 comments

    17   2:29pm Wed 7 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   theoakman says It doesn't have to happen tomorrow. I'm fairly certain the S&P will hit 2000. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow.

18. theoakman Follow Befriend 2 threads 646 comments

    18   3:19pm Wed 7 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   corntrollio says theoakman says It doesn't have to happen tomorrow. I'm fairly certain the S&P will hit 2000. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow. Good for you. I'm not sure the point of your post. I've always put a time frame on that prediction, and you conveniently left it off the quote. It just so happens, my prediction, which has been consistent since 2008 is going to happen 2 years earlier than I predicted back then.

19. corntrollio Follow Befriend (5) 27 threads 2,073 comments

    19   5:58pm Wed 7 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   theoakman says I'm not sure the point of your post. Oh, I was definitely being a smartass. I haven't been posting here for too long and am not privy to your consistent predictions. Care to point me to them? At what price did you buy? How "all in" did you go?

20. theoakman Follow Befriend 2 threads 646 comments

    20   7:05pm Wed 7 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   corntrollio says theoakman says I'm not sure the point of your post. Oh, I was definitely being a smartass. I haven't been posting here for too long and am not privy to your consistent predictions. Care to point me to them? At what price did you buy? How "all in" did you go? already did in the last thread http://patrick.net/forum/?p=968746

21. komputodo Follow Befriend (1) 10 comments

    21   7:17pm Wed 7 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   At what price will you buy back in?

22. komputodo Follow Befriend (1) 10 comments

    22   7:33pm Wed 7 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   You said that you also have physical. Which do you prefer, paper gold or physical? And if you do prefer physical, why did you buy paper gold.

23. uomo_senza_nome Follow Befriend (13) 787 threads 1,542 comments

    23   10:19pm Wed 7 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   komputodo says Which do you prefer, paper gold or physical? And if you do prefer physical, why did you buy paper gold. electronic gold is not paper. it is allocated storage in my understanding. the custodian actually stores physical in a vault in your name.

24. Vicente Follow Befriend (8) 209 threads 4,521 comments Davis, CA

    24   10:52pm Wed 7 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   austrian_man says the custodian actually stores physical in a vault in your name. Dear Giuseppe, I have EVERY OUNCE of your gold and that of every other customer in my vault. Trust me. -Guido

25. uomo_senza_nome Follow Befriend (13) 787 threads 1,542 comments

    25   11:12pm Wed 7 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Vicente says Dear Giuseppe, I have EVERY OUNCE of your gold and that of every other customer in my vault. Trust me. -Guido So you think Goldmoney and Bullionvault are fraud? They are very good to establish trading positions. Obviously you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket.

26. Vicente Follow Befriend (8) 209 threads 4,521 comments Davis, CA

    26   11:18pm Wed 7 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   austrian_man says So you think Goldmoney and Bullionvault are fraud? Dunno, not familiar with them. There is certainly precedent here from olden times to Morgan Stanley in 2005: "Morgan Stanley told clients it was selling them precious metals that they would own in full and that the company would store. But Morgan Stanley either made no investment specifically on behalf of those clients, or it made entirely different investments of lesser value and security" http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/06/12/idUSN1228014520070612

27. uomo_senza_nome Follow Befriend (13) 787 threads 1,542 comments

    27   11:22pm Wed 7 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Vicente says Dunno, not familiar with them. There is certainly precedent here from olden times to more recent fraud by Morgan Stanley OK, From my research - Goldmoney and Bullionvault are very commonly used for establishing trading positions. It is very easy to setup accounts online and start trading physical. The spreads are very attractive, you don't have to fork a 10% or more premium to get the physical. You won't have the physical in your hand per se, which is why they should be treated as trading positions. Plus, they allow you to store the metal outside US. Here's a link comparing both: https://www.goldinmind.com/how-to-buy-gold/reviews-ratings/bullionvault-vs-goldmoney-review.html Here's another link that's coming up, which seems to be good for small investors: http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/08/treasure-chest-2-game-changer.html

28. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 107 threads 3,865 comments

    28   7:30am Thu 8 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Patrick says Bellingham Bob says Some other hackneyed saying here. You can't lose by winning. Anyway, I agree. After such a run-up, best to take some profits and be certain of them. A bit off topic. I remember when house prices just started to grow insanely fast. At that time many folks started selling their homes and went to rent because they could not imagine prices going up much further. That was about year 1998/2000. That bubble almost tripled to 2006. Of course with gold it's probably different. I don't see government going all out to support it's price.

29. komputodo Follow Befriend (1) 10 comments

    29   10:18am Thu 8 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I have trust issues. That's why I hold physical. IWOG: tell us at what price you'll buy back in.

30. middleman Follow Befriend 2 threads 66 comments Poway, CA middleman's website

    30   12:05pm Thu 8 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I feel gold is a horrible long term investment. It's been great in the short term, however, the question is when do you take profits and exit the casino? It looks like you made the choice many people have trouble doing (which will be to their demise) and made some good money. Could it go up? Sure. But now you can sleep better. Now take your wife on a date dammit! Celebrate your profits.

31. Dan8267 Follow Befriend (17) 785 threads 7,970 comments Boca Raton, FL Premium

    31   2:25pm Thu 8 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, Know when to walk away and know when to run. You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table. There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done.

32. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,368 comments

    32   6:59pm Thu 8 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   middleman says gold is a horrible long term investment That is because it is not an investment, as it does not grow nor does it have cash flow. It is just a thing that is regarded as money. Kind of like, you can stash your money in different kinds of money, like USD or CAD or Euro, yen, etc., or in gold or silver. If you wanna invest, get something that can grow like a business (or shares in a business) or something that has a cash flow (again, a business or shares in one or a rental or renting your money to someone else for interest). Or even something that can grow like your income if you invest in your education. But if you trade your fiat currency for gold, it is not investing. It is just trading one form of money for another.

33. KILLERJANE Follow Befriend (3) 12 threads 600 comments

    33   7:50am Fri 9 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   It's at $1846 now. Ding ding ding. Ooh you're a winner!

34. komputodo Follow Befriend (1) 10 comments

    34   12:15pm Fri 9 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Some of us don't trust the stock market. Interest rates on CDs are a joke. Real estate is worse. What's left? Those that bought physical silver at the end of 2008 for $10.60 are up now about 300% compared to the 5-6% they would have earned in CDs. At the same time, those that bought gold then at $840.00 would be up aound 125%. If we sold our PMs now for cash, we'd be back to earning 1% a year. So we hold on and hope for the best.

35. corntrollio Follow Befriend (5) 27 threads 2,073 comments

    35   3:30pm Fri 9 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   komputodo says Some of us don't trust the stock market. Interest rates on CDs are a joke. Real estate is worse. What's left? Those that bought physical silver at the end of 2008 for $10.60 are up now about 300% compared to the 5-6% they would have earned in CDs. I'm not sure speculation on commodities is the answer to that question, although it seems to have worked in the short-term for those buying gold and silver. There are a variety of investments available that don't involve as risky a bet as commodities and still get better returns than the current return on short-term CDs. Not trusting the stock market seems sort of silly if you're looking at a full investment portfolio -- do you avoid using 401(k)s and similar instruments like IRAs? If you are using November or December 2008 as a marking period, there were still CDs available at 4.75% for 3 year periods and above 5% for 5-10 years periods at that point, so I don't see that as a valid criticism. Today, I see 2.45% for 4 years, 2.68% for 5 years, 2.75% for 7 years, and 3% for 10 years, so it's definitely lower, but ideally you aren't buying gold today either because its possible return in 3 years is much lower than it was in late 2008, since it has gone up so much since then. I'm definitely not seeing how the commodities market (which is open to massive amounts of speculation) is more trustworthy than the stock market. At least there are regulations that require listed companies to be truthful with their disclosures, but there isn't really an analog for commodities. To another point, if you think earning 300% every 3 years is sustainable, then you probably aren't thinking critically enough.

36. komputodo Follow Befriend (1) 10 comments

    36   10:54am Sat 10 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   corntrollio says I'm definitely not seeing how the commodities market (which is open to massive amounts of speculation) is more trustworthy than the stock market. At least there are regulations that require listed companies to be truthful with their disclosures, but there isn't really an analog for commodities. Are to referring to this type of thing: CSK Auto to pay $20.9M, settle securities charges Retailer CSK Auto to pay $20.9 million to settle charges of securities-law violations

37. corntrollio Follow Befriend (5) 27 threads 2,073 comments

    37   12:16pm Mon 12 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   komputodo says CSK Auto to pay $20.9M, settle securities charges Retailer CSK Auto to pay $20.9 million to settle charges of securities-law violations O RLY?You're talking about 1 company where 3 top execs have pled guilty to criminal charges. That's not easily generalizable. Also note that their stock was purchased by O'Reilly at a 63% premium, and O'Reilly's stock has gone up over 100% since the purchase, so if you held on, you still made good money. I don't understand the argument that investing in commodities is somehow more trustworthy. Someone would have to work hard to justify that opinion. You can easily diversify your investments, and in current times, there are many many more possibilities available to you than were available even 15-20 years ago.