Patrick.net

5-year graphs of silver and platinum

By iwog   Follow   Fri, 16 Sep 2011, 11:27am   10,462 views   112 comments
Watch (1)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

Posted without comment.

Viewing Comments 1-40 of 112     Next »     Last »     See most liked comments

1. uomo_senza_nome Follow Befriend (13) 787 threads 1,542 comments

   1   11:51am Fri 16 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   it'd be nice to hear your comments. But let me try to infer through the picture. You are saying silver will follow a platinum-like trajectory and go to may be $15 or so. Platinum can be seen like 'more precious' silver and both have heavy industrial uses. Right?

2. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,655 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   2   12:09pm Fri 16 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Bingo.

3. surfingerman Follow Befriend 55 comments

   3   5:02am Sun 18 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   i wouldnt be so sure about that, silver was trading at a lower band for a long time because it was persistently heavily shorted, those shorts had their backs crushed on forced covers, i dont think silver is shorted like it used to be anymore, and new restrictions on leverage in the silver market have been implemented that means silver is not as vulnerable to drops in price or sudden rises as it used to be

4. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,655 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   4   6:20am Sun 18 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   surfingerman says i wouldnt be so sure about that, silver was trading at a lower band for a long time because it was persistently heavily shorted, those shorts had their backs crushed on forced covers, i dont think silver is shorted like it used to be anymore, and new restrictions on leverage in the silver market have been implemented that means silver is not as vulnerable to drops in price or sudden rises as it used to be Silver peaked a lot higher than platinum did. In 5 years, platinum roughly doubled while silver increased by 400-500%. Disclaimer: I think this bubble is done and I'm VERY heavily short right now. Based on the almost instantaneous falloff from $48 to $34, I think the crash is going to be particularly brutal. I would not be the least bit surprised if we went below $10 by January.

5. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,655 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   5   6:31am Sun 18 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   To illustrate the power of getting this right, understand that put options on the December silver futures market at a strike price of $25 are selling at 10 cents. This means that should silver fall to $15 by December, a $10,000 investment would return $1 million. For those who are a little more conservative, you can get a March 2012 option with a strike price of $26 for 45 cents.

6. Reality Follow Befriend 2 threads 1,666 comments

   6   8:15am Sun 18 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says To illustrate the power of getting this right, understand that put options on the December silver futures market at a strike price of $25 are selling at 10 cents. This means that should silver fall to $15 by December, a $10,000 investment would return $1 million. For those who are a little more conservative, you can get a March 2012 option with a strike price of $26 for 45 cents. When giving financial advice like this, you should probably add disclaimer that you are a clueless newbie yourself, and people should take what you write as random words by an idiot, not investment advice despite the detailed prescriptive words like "For those who are . . ., you can . . . " Even then, you'd still not be entirely clear of potential prosecution, especially if you indeed have positions that would benefit from other people following your advice. For what it's worth, I'm short-term neutral on both gold and silver, as well as their ETF forms . . . as indicated by my writing in the other thread suggesting shorting GLD would be less risky and better reward than shorting GLD calls if one wants to trade on the belief that GLD is going down significantly. Heck, if one truly wants to trade on the belief that a major decline is coming for a security, the low-risk high-reward strategy is shorting the underlying itself while buying protective call options to cover oneself in case of error. . . roughly exactly opposite of what you are doing on GLD.

7. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,655 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   7   8:28am Sun 18 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Reality says When giving financial advice like this, you should probably add disclaimer that you are a clueless newbie yourself, and people should take what you write as random words by an idiot, not investment advice despite the detailed prescriptive words like "For those who are . . ., you can . . . " Even then, you'd still not be entirely clear of potential prosecution, especially if you indeed have positions that would benefit from other people following your advice. ROFLOL.........is this a joke? Potential prosecution? There's plenty of nonsense on this board, but this takes the cake. I guess you missed the part where I said I was heavily short silver. BTW none of this is advice, it's simply a chronicle of what I'm doing personally. If people want to comment, that's fine too.

8. Reality Follow Befriend 2 threads 1,666 comments

   8   10:05am Sun 18 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   iwog says I guess you missed the part where I said I was heavily short silver. That means people taking your advice would be helping your existing position! Quite a few alleged pump-and-dump scamsters have been prosecuted for precisely that reason. BTW none of this is advice, it's simply a chronicle of what I'm doing personally. If people want to comment, that's fine too. Your writing "For those who are a little more conservative, you can get a March 2012 option with a strike price of $26 for 45 cents" can be easily construed as actionable advice. That's why I suggested you should add disclaimer immediately after that advice to the effect that you are just a clueless newbie and don't know what you are writing.

9. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,655 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   9   12:05pm Sun 18 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Okay I'm a clueless newbie and I don't know what I am writing. Anything else?

10. theoakman Follow Befriend 2 threads 646 comments

    10   12:27pm Sun 18 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   hehe, there you have it. If Silver crashes to $15, it's all Iwog's fault.

11. atst1138 Follow Befriend 42 comments

    11   12:31pm Sun 18 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Is the Jan 18 2014 price of 2 cents with a 25 strike price an error here? SLV140118P00030000 30.00 5.000 +0.00 4.250 SLV140118P00035000 35.00 0.0200 +0.00 6.050 SLV140118P00037000 37.00 4.340 +0.00 7.550

12. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,655 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    12   12:37pm Sun 18 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   atst1138 says Is the Jan 18 2014 price of 2 cents with a 25 strike price an error here? Yes. I don't think there is a January contract, at least one that is widely traded. Silver futures are March, May, July, September and December. The December 2013 Put contract with a $25 strike price is currently $2.74. http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Silver_Futures//////////options/SIZ13?mode=i&view=

13. atst1138 Follow Befriend 42 comments

    13   12:40pm Sun 18 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Hmm, this is the site I pulled that from http://quotes.stocknod.com/stocknod/quote/optionchain?StrikeDate=1390021200&Symbol=SLV&Filter=PUTS

14. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,655 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    14   12:44pm Sun 18 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   atst1138 says Hmm, this is the site I pulled that from http://quotes.stocknod.com/stocknod/quote/optionchain?StrikeDate=1390021200&Symbol=SLV&Filter=PUTS Oh okay, you're looking at SLV puts and not the futures market. The .02 price is a glitch or an error. The bid is $6.05 and the ask is $7.50.

15. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,368 comments

    15   1:07pm Sun 18 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   I am thinking of constructing my own "Oakland Raiders" position, silver and black. Half silver, half coal.

16. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,612 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    16   3:49pm Sun 18 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   iwog says a $10,000 investment would return $1 million. How about invest $1k with a potential of making $100k instead of going all out? If silver follows platinum's pattern, short silver when it breaks $33. No???

17. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,655 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    17   4:09pm Sun 18 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   E-man says iwog says a $10,000 investment would return $1 million. How about invest $1k with a potential of making $100k instead of going all out? If silver follows platinum's pattern, short silver when it breaks $33. No??? Success isn't by chance, but by choice. I suppose, but the 100 to 1 play will probably be gone by then.

18. Monkeyswing Follow Befriend 3 threads 52 comments Las Vegas, NV

    18   10:38pm Sun 18 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   A lot of folks at King World News would disagree with that prognostication. I think the silver bulls believe that thanks to horrible fundamentals that are only going to get worse as QE spans the world, silver and gold are going a lot higher. If monetizing the debt (QE/printing money) increases the money supply, and banks withholding lending and writing down their bad debts makes money disappear, how will this effect the metals? Inflation, deflation, stagflation? What the hell's going on? Curious what you guys think. I'm kinda lost.

19. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,655 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    19   10:45pm Sun 18 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Monkeyswing says A lot of folks at King World News would disagree with that prognostication. I think the silver bulls believe that thanks to horrible fundamentals that are only going to get worse as QE spans the world, silver and gold are going a lot higher. If monetizing the debt (QE/printing money) increases the money supply, and banks withholding lending and writing down their bad debts makes money disappear, how will this effect the metals? Inflation, deflation, stagflation? What the hell's going on? Curious what you guys think. I'm kinda lost. I agree with everything you've said, but all that was true 3 years ago and things still haven't fallen apart. What if we keep treading water another three years? Silver futures have expiration dates and there are only so many buyers in the world. I think the upcoming silver chart will resemble both platinum and oil. A major crash followed by a very steady increase back up to 60-70% of previous highs.

20. Monkeyswing Follow Befriend 3 threads 52 comments Las Vegas, NV

    20   1:09am Mon 19 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Well, the amount of silver buyers could increase if news of Goldman suppressing its value hits the mainstream and turns out to be true. You following this lawsuit? And if the coming 2 day meeting announces QE in some shape or form that could serve to solidify silver's newish floor up around 39... Plus China's buying metals to hedge against the dollar, and of course silver's in everything from keyboards to solar panels. But those two graphs look mighty similar! Guess we'll see!

21. Monkeyswing Follow Befriend 3 threads 52 comments Las Vegas, NV

    21   1:24am Mon 19 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Correction, not Goldman, JP Morgan Chase

22. surfingerman Follow Befriend 55 comments

    22   4:06am Mon 19 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Disclaimer: I think this bubble is done and I'm VERY heavily short right now. Based on the almost instantaneous falloff from $48 to $34, I think the crash is going to be particularly brutal. I would not be the least bit surprised if we went below $10 by January. youve gone completely insane i do a lot of technical analysis and that chart says 50 silver without a doubt also as others have pointed out your pretty much betting the fed wont do QE3, if the fed does QE 3 your goose is cooked

23. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,655 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    23   5:24am Mon 19 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   surfingerman says i do a lot of technical analysis and that chart says 50 silver without a doubt It does?

24. theoakman Follow Befriend 2 threads 646 comments

    24   9:22am Mon 19 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Just curious Iwog, how did you become the Silver hyperbear? Is this purely based on charts? Has your long term inflation outlook changed?

25. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,655 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    25   10:55am Mon 19 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   theoakman says Just curious Iwog, how did you become the Silver hyperbear? Is this purely based on charts? Has your long term inflation outlook changed? It's mostly based on charts and my experience with all the prior asset bubbles. I'm a big believer in peak oil and I remain one today, however peak oil hysteria drove oil to $147 in 2008 while the dire effect of peak oil will take many years and will accelerate up over time. Silver production is outproducing demand this year with the excess being scooped up by speculators. I think it's unstable and I think we're headed for a huge correction.

26. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,655 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    26   7:44am Thu 22 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Today's crash is almost an exact match to the platinum chart. I'm convinced more than ever we're going to see $20 silver in a few months.

27. joshuatrio Follow Befriend 41 threads 704 comments Monterey, CA

    27   7:52am Thu 22 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   $20 silver? Can anyone say Monster Box?

28. thunderlips11 Follow Befriend (13) 61 threads 2,708 comments Premium

    28   11:34am Thu 22 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   If it goes into the teens, I'm buying like a madman. Awful long way to go, but who knows?

29. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,655 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    29   12:21pm Thu 22 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   thunderlips11 says If it goes into the teens, I'm buying like a madman. Awful long way to go, but who knows? Homo Economicus. Like Bigfoot, reported to exist in fantasy books, but never seen in the wild. If everything goes according to plan, $10-$15 silver should be about January.

30. atst1138 Follow Befriend 42 comments

    30   1:20pm Thu 22 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Well your Dec 2011 25 dollar strike put was up 53% today. This is the second call I have seen you make that pays off in the very short term. Incidentally I downloaded Scottrade's 170 page option handbook the other day and I'm sure the answers are in there but I'll ask here as well. You do sell these options like any other trade correct? And if so, is it possible that you cannot find a buyer on the other side? As I understand it you either execute the contract or it expires worthless regardless of whether you were "in the money." So let's say you become in the money on the day the contract expires, who would buy it if they had no time to execute it? Or is the execution done in nanoseconds as well?

31. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,655 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    31   2:18pm Thu 22 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   atst1138 says You do sell these options like any other trade correct? Yes. Etrade has a trade called "sell open". atst1138 says And if so, is it possible that you cannot find a buyer on the other side? Nope because you can always sell at the bid. There are always market makers with an offer to buy although the spread between the bid and the ask is rather high on options that aren't regularly traded. atst1138 says As I understand it you either execute the contract or it expires worthless regardless of whether you were "in the money." So let's say you become in the money on the day the contract expires, who would buy it if they had no time to execute it? I've had this happen, and at least with Etrade their policy is to execute any contract that has a cash value of .25 or better in order to preserve the gain. They do this after the close. I've also screwed up on futures contracts and let my position expire only to have it settled in cash after the fact. I think it's mostly idiot proof.

32. Monkeyswing Follow Befriend 3 threads 52 comments Las Vegas, NV

    32   8:57pm Thu 22 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Couldn't help but think of you today iwog. Funny stuff!

33. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,655 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    33   10:47pm Thu 22 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Monkeyswing says Couldn't help but think of you today iwog. Funny stuff! Silver fell off another cliff after the close. It's down now about $2 more. I damn near missed this one. I got the money to the broker on Friday and bought my short positions on Monday and Tuesday. Someone was looking out for me.

34. Monkeyswing Follow Befriend 3 threads 52 comments Las Vegas, NV

    34   10:52am Fri 23 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Ya, look at it go!

35. atst1138 Follow Befriend 42 comments

    35   10:54am Fri 23 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Down 15% today again, the 21 cent Dec 2011 25 dollar strike put is now 1.53. Another solid call from Iwog. I can't believe the beating it is taking.

36. Monkeyswing Follow Befriend 3 threads 52 comments Las Vegas, NV

    36   3:24pm Fri 23 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I'm wondering, though, what would've happened had Bernanke announced QE3 in no uncertain terms? Because now what's clearly happening is deflationary fear where cash is king, whereas QE3 would've increased inflationary fears and would've continued to support the gold/silver rally. What's more powerful, graphs or policy?

37. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    37   3:54pm Fri 23 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Seems to me the market is discounting the chances the austerians really take over the asylum next year, LOL

38. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,655 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    38   4:04pm Fri 23 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Bellingham Bob says Seems to me the market is discounting the chances the austerians really take over the asylum next year, LOL Obama can't lose, but if he does I'll be expecting my tax cuts post haste.

39. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    39   4:27pm Fri 23 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says Obama can't lose He's only a sweater away from being Carter. And a supermarket scanner from Bush Sr for that matter. He's gotta run like Truman, but even if he wins, the Senate is probably going Republican, hard. Obama is a non-entity in the system, and he became so late last year. Obstructionism is good enough for the austerians.

40. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,655 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    40   6:09pm Fri 23 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   Back to silver, there's going to be gigantic margin calls affecting the market on Monday. This week was a once in a generation event and it's exactly the type of black swan that murders hedge funds.

Next comments »     Last »