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5-year graphs of silver and platinum

By iwog   Follow   Fri, 16 Sep 2011, 11:27am   10,436 views   112 comments
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1. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   33   10:47pm Thu 22 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Monkeyswing says Couldn't help but think of you today iwog. Funny stuff! Silver fell off another cliff after the close. It's down now about $2 more. I damn near missed this one. I got the money to the broker on Friday and bought my short positions on Monday and Tuesday. Someone was looking out for me.

2. Monkeyswing Follow Befriend 3 threads 52 comments Las Vegas, NV

   34   10:52am Fri 23 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Ya, look at it go!

3. atst1138 Follow Befriend 42 comments

   35   10:54am Fri 23 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Down 15% today again, the 21 cent Dec 2011 25 dollar strike put is now 1.53. Another solid call from Iwog. I can't believe the beating it is taking.

4. Monkeyswing Follow Befriend 3 threads 52 comments Las Vegas, NV

   36   3:24pm Fri 23 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I'm wondering, though, what would've happened had Bernanke announced QE3 in no uncertain terms? Because now what's clearly happening is deflationary fear where cash is king, whereas QE3 would've increased inflationary fears and would've continued to support the gold/silver rally. What's more powerful, graphs or policy?

5. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

   37   3:54pm Fri 23 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Seems to me the market is discounting the chances the austerians really take over the asylum next year, LOL

6. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   38   4:04pm Fri 23 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Bellingham Bob says Seems to me the market is discounting the chances the austerians really take over the asylum next year, LOL Obama can't lose, but if he does I'll be expecting my tax cuts post haste.

7. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

   39   4:27pm Fri 23 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says Obama can't lose He's only a sweater away from being Carter. And a supermarket scanner from Bush Sr for that matter. He's gotta run like Truman, but even if he wins, the Senate is probably going Republican, hard. Obama is a non-entity in the system, and he became so late last year. Obstructionism is good enough for the austerians.

8. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   40   6:09pm Fri 23 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   Back to silver, there's going to be gigantic margin calls affecting the market on Monday. This week was a once in a generation event and it's exactly the type of black swan that murders hedge funds.

9. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

   41   6:40pm Fri 23 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   What sort of idiot would buy pm on margin???

10. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    42   6:45pm Fri 23 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Bellingham Bob says What sort of idiot would buy pm on margin??? “Nessuna soluzione . . . nessun problema!„ Everyone. I once asked my broker how I could trade silver futures without relying on margin. It was so alien to him, that it took me about 10 minutes of explaining before I finally got my question across. No one who trades in silver futures has any idea how much money these contracts really represent until something happens like this week's crash. A single silver contract is 5000 ounces. That's $200,000 on Monday and $150,000 today. You can trade this contract with about $15,000 in your account.

11. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    43   8:10pm Fri 23 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   LOL. Can't people read a graph any more???

12. uomo_senza_nome Follow Befriend (13) 787 threads 1,542 comments

    44   11:31pm Fri 23 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says A single silver contract is 5000 ounces. That's $200,000 on Monday and $150,000 today. You can trade this contract with about $15,000 in your account. Leverage is ridiculous. And such high leverage is basically gambling, therefore addictive.

13. thunderlips11 Follow Befriend (13) 52 threads 2,639 comments Premium

    45   12:36pm Mon 26 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   That's insane. Futures scares me. I'll stick to buying options.

14. EBGuy Follow Befriend 4 threads 2,099 comments

    46   12:50pm Mon 26 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   I once asked my broker how I could trade silver futures without relying on margin. Out of curiousity, have you ever consider selling a futures contract against a physical position (yes I know this is a silver thread)?

15. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    47   5:02pm Wed 28 Sep 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   EBGuy says Out of curiousity, have you ever consider selling a futures contract against a physical position (yes I know this is a silver thread)? Not really. I'm not real big on hedging. I rarely make large futures bets, in fact I've only made three since 2008. 2008 oil: Win 2010 gold: Lose 2011 silver: Win so far

16. Indian Follow Befriend 14 threads 49 comments

    48   11:58pm Sat 8 Oct 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Reality says iwog says I guess you missed the part where I said I was heavily short silver. That means people taking your advice would be helping your existing position! Quite a few alleged pump-and-dump scamsters have been prosecuted for precisely that reason. BTW none of this is advice, it's simply a chronicle of what I'm doing personally. If people want to comment, that's fine too. Your writing "For those who are a little more conservative, you can get a March 2012 option with a strike price of $26 for 45 cents" can be easily construed as actionable advice. That's why I suggested you should add disclaimer immediately after that advice to the effect that you are just a clueless newbie and don't know what you are writing. I could not help commenting after seeing the above statements. While I can see where this kind of sentiment can come from, but prosecuting someone because of what they post on these forums sounds completely ludicrous. In a free market of investing ideas everyone has the choice to side with the opinions they like and reject those they do not. If Iwog can be persecuted on the basis of what he "rants" :-) on these forums. What about the likes of Barrons, Bloomberg, CNBC's fast money, smart money etc etc. Shouldn't people who give investing advice on Barrons be persecuted as well ? In fact these investing journals make the facade of respectability and authenticity more.

17. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    49   12:14am Sun 9 Oct 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Indian says but prosecuting someone because of what they post on these forums sounds completely ludicrous. dude, the entity that posted that is just trolling the shit out this place.

18. Reality Follow Befriend 2 threads 1,645 comments

    50   1:09am Sun 9 Oct 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Indian, Search the case for "Anthony Elgindy" if you don't believe me. Notice all the disclaimers that all the publications / TV programs always run; None of them give direct actionable advice like Iwog was doing: "For those . . . you can . . ."

19. Indian Follow Befriend 14 threads 49 comments

    51   4:36am Sun 9 Oct 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704514704576609030927595372.html?mod=BOL_hpp_dc Direct quote from the article "strike price" in Barrons: "TO PROFIT FROM THESE DYNAMICS, use put options on Bank of America. Any stock below $6 is a perpetual option, but still consider buying one put, like a $5 strike, and selling another with a lower strike price, like a $1 strike, on Bank of America. Select puts that expire in six months to a year. This lets you benefit from high implied volatility, and a stock decline. If you are more dour, buy the $5 strike, pay the volatility premium, and see what happens." So I do not agree that Barrons does not post actionable advice.

20. atst1138 Follow Befriend 42 comments

    52   12:32pm Mon 10 Oct 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Not Sure says THIS is what Iwog predicted under the posting, "How low will silver go": "Now that the bubble has blown up, the important question is how low will it go? The no-brainer way to analyze this is to simply say silver is going to do again what silver did before. This means silver will be selling for $10 an ounce in 3 months." HAhahahahahahahahahahaha! Well he's a third of the way there in less than a month. Not sure what the mocking is all about.

21. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    53   10:08pm Mon 10 Oct 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Not Sure says THIS is what Iwog predicted under the posting, "How low will silver go": That wasn't actually a prediction, that was simply one way to analyze how the silver bubble will unwind. If you actually read the rest of that thread, you would have seen other possible scenarios. IMO since silver is so closely tracking platinum, I think a 6 month fall to $10 or $15 is very likely while a drop to $10 in 3 months is unlikely but possble. You do realize that I posted all of this when silver was $40-$41 right?

22. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    54   3:14pm Fri 28 Oct 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I was wondering when you'd be back to troll this thread again. I assume when your new prediction is wrong, you'll change your SN yet again and come up with some new nonsense. Not Sure says I notice you've EDITED your original post in order to remove your foolish 'prediction' about silver hitting $10 an ounce in 3 months. Nope, you're just lying about it. The original thread along with all my other comments is exactly how I wrote it originally. http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1052015

23. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    55   4:59pm Fri 28 Oct 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Not Sure says Lastly, how you "wrote it originally" is exactly how I QUOTED IT. All I did was press "quote" and then respond. I LOVE the way you call ME the liar! The problem is how you quoted it is exactly how it still remains. So yes, you're a liar. The troll part is self-evident.

24. StillLooking Follow Befriend 27 threads 233 comments Skokie, IL

    56   9:38pm Fri 28 Oct 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I was buying silver at $7. And now that it dropped from near 50 to thirty I am buying more. Actually I am selling puts now. If silver drops, good as this will mean cash will have buying power. If silver doesn't drop I am more protected from our government's wild inflationary policies.

25. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    57   9:52pm Fri 28 Oct 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says silver is so closely tracking platinum Silly guys. Metals don't track and don't have minds of their own. It's the human factors that determine the prices.

26. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    58   2:58am Sat 29 Oct 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   StillLooking says If silver doesn't drop I am more protected from our government's wild inflationary policies. LOL. The system is straining to maintain employment at levels of the last recession: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=34b On a per-capita basis we're just taking a breather before we hit the 1980s recession: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=34c This is not to say that inflation won't win the day in the end, but it's got to fight some brutal deflationary trends to get there. No wage inflation, no inflation -- just reallocation.

27. StillLooking Follow Befriend 27 threads 233 comments Skokie, IL

    59   3:06pm Sat 29 Oct 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   Bellingham Bill says StillLooking says If silver doesn't drop I am more protected from our government's wild inflationary policies. LOL. The system is straining to maintain employment at levels of the last recession: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=34b On a per-capita basis we're just taking a breather before we hit the 1980s recession: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=34c This is not to say that inflation won't win the day in the end, but it's got to fight some brutal deflationary trends to get there. No wage inflation, no inflation -- just reallocation. “Nessuna soluzione . . . nessun problema!„ If you have any money in the bank, it makes no sense to bet against silver. All I see is the dollar losing actual purchasing power and this has been the case for the last ten years. The only thing money buys that has been getting cheaper is housing. I am long silver to protect my savings and if I lose on my silver investments, I can only gain purchasing power on my savings held in US Dollars. Investing in silver has no downside, especially if you only buy the dips. And I would be really surprised to lose on my initial silver investments when silver was under $7.

28. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

    60   11:27pm Sat 29 Oct 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   StillLooking says it makes no sense to bet against silver if gov't doesn't "wildly inflate" this decade, you're going to need lead, not silver.

29. LarryPatrickMaloney Follow Befriend (13) 57 threads 166 comments Mountain View, CA LarryPatrickMaloney's website

    61   6:39pm Sun 30 Oct 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says Disclaimer: I think this bubble is done and I'm VERY heavily short right now. Based on the almost instantaneous falloff from $48 to $34, I think the crash is going to be particularly brutal. I would not be the least bit surprised if we went below $10 by January. I LOVE IT! iWog is short on silver, and is gonna get his clock cleaned. I love it.

30. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    62   7:20pm Sun 30 Oct 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog's not gonna get his clock cleaned. He's rich. It's a small speculative position for him.

31. Remington Follow Befriend 22 threads 48 comments Pacifica, CA

    63   1:26pm Mon 31 Oct 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Well love him or hate he's been right about silver thus far. Thanks to iwog I sold out at the height right after reading his parabolic thread. I just bought puts for December, although I didnt see any @ .10..

32. everything Follow Befriend (2) 3 threads 552 comments Madison, WI

    64   8:40pm Wed 2 Nov 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   I wonder if gas will go back down to 1.50/gallon as well. If people sell into a dip that deep, I'll be literally backing the truck up.

33. thunderlips11 Follow Befriend (13) 52 threads 2,639 comments Premium

    65   9:39am Thu 3 Nov 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Check out Gold today, going ballistic.

34. NuttBoxer Follow Befriend (1) 26 threads 188 comments Chula Vista, CA

    66   10:46am Thu 3 Nov 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Iwog, im not sure your analysis is valid since you have attempted to tie silver to platinum instead of gold. You all know if bad goes to worse, no one is going to honor the paper u r holding.

35. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    67   12:42pm Thu 3 Nov 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   NuttBoxer says Iwog, im not sure your analysis is valid since you have attempted to tie silver to platinum instead of gold. You all know if bad goes to worse, no one is going to honor the paper u r holding. The problem is that the world is going in the exact opposite direction. In the last 10 years, American paper has become MUCH more valuable and coveted. The American bond market is not only experiencing the biggest boom in American history, but by volume it's the biggest boom in world history as well. EVERYONE is fighting for dollars to the point that people are accepting 0% for the privilege of holding US debt. Now granted gold has also experienced a huge boom based on the premise that the dollar is toast, but how long are people supposed to hold all these metals waiting for it to happen? I'm actually amazed at how well silver and gold bounced back from their hammering in September, but my window according to the platinum model is 6 months and we've only seen about a month and a half of action. As we all now know, silver can drop by a huge amount in a very short time. ' Our economy is terminal, but I've believed that for over a decade and those rabbits just keep jumping out of that hat. I'll jump back into silver and gold after I'm convinced we're no longer in a speculative bubble.

36. everything Follow Befriend (2) 3 threads 552 comments Madison, WI

    68   9:21am Fri 4 Nov 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The speculative bubble, might last longer than you think. I know people who have been holding silver and gold for more than a generation. I'm not so sure what is so "booming" about 0%, is 0% sustainable? The last I checked, the fastest growing buyer of U.S. debt is the federal reserve. And, the fastest growing buyers of gold and silver, also likely not America. I would rather buy gold and silver than buy debt. If interest rates go up, then gold and silver might ease off more.

37. StillLooking Follow Befriend 27 threads 233 comments Skokie, IL

    69   5:24pm Sat 5 Nov 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   iwog says I'm actually amazed at how well silver and gold bounced back from their hammering in September, but my window according to the platinum model is 6 months and we've only seen about a month and a half of action. As we all now know, silver can drop by a huge amount in a very short time. Your platinum model is suggesting that platinum is a strong buy. Even if the Fed starts raising rates and fighting inflation I doubt if they could break the back of this precious metal rally. And the Fed is far from doing that.

38. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    70   11:08am Sun 6 Nov 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   iwog says The American bond market is not only experiencing the biggest boom in American history, but by volume it's the biggest boom in world history as well. EVERYONE is fighting for dollars to the point that people are accepting 0% for the privilege of holding US debt. This sounds like the bubble is in US Debt, not gold or silver. I can just hear the popping sound, when everyone suddenly realizes that US can no longer meet its obligations. Then, the current so-called bubble in gold and silver will look like a child's play.

39. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    71   4:43pm Sun 6 Nov 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   dunnross says sounds like the bubble is in US Debt But it is not a speculative bubble. I don't think they're buying treasuries on the speculation that the principal value of the bond will rise. Do you think so? It is more like a contagion to try to preserve the cash. Even, if the cash is printed money.

40. uomo_senza_nome Follow Befriend (13) 787 threads 1,542 comments

    72   7:03pm Sun 6 Nov 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   B.A.C.A.H. says I don't think they're buying treasuries on the speculation that the principal value of the bond will rise. THAT is the whole point of front-running the Fed. Of course there's speculation as with any other market. It is undetectable, because it is the largest, most liquid market in the whole world. Bond speculators buy the long-dated Treasurys and sell the short-dated ones, to pocket the difference in yields. These straddles represent borrowing short and lending long. As such, they are inherently risky. However, Quantitative Easing takes the risk out by making the odds, that the normal yield curve will invert, negligible.

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