Shiller Expects More House Price Declines


By Patrick   Follow   Tue, 27 Dec 2011, 4:20pm   5,257 views   18 comments
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  1. ArtimusMaxtor


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    1   3:19am Wed 28 Dec 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    How the fuck can home prices falling be catastrophic ? I see the header on the vid. How does that even equate? Look, one more time YOUR looked at as labor. Thats it. Paper is no good. It is rendered the only means of legal trade. The house is worth something the paper not much. Its the time you have engaged with the paper how much you get vs how much you have avalible to put out = time over life of labor. Your labor for the fractional debt people. Everyone in the fractional system is fucked. You may say you have everything paid off. Truth is everytime you have a wad of fractional paper your fucked. Truth is charlie. Thats a fucking debt note in your wallet. That they really don't want you to understand.

    That being said. Losing a house is nothing much. But my family! What I have put into it! What you need to figure is the drop vs getting something at a much lower price. Then your labor is much less. If you get a better deal.

    Refinance is bullshit. Virtually everyone goes back to a 30 year mortgage. They know that. They aren't giving you a break. Interest is stacked on the front paid first. So your fucked for another 30 years.

    Its time you used a different equation to figure out how much labor you have to give MR FRACTIONAL in order to have shelter.

    One more time a flat screen tv is nothing but a circut board. 35 bucks to make maybe 70 and it sells for 1000 in some cases. Deal is they don't care about making a shitload of paper. That they have. Its the time you have to put in working doing other things for them that they are interested in. There is the gouge right there.

    They do this on everything. Including food which is really a nasty thing to do. It is very smart to look at the TIME it takes you in labor. Not only that but connecting WHO you work for in the fractional scheme of things. Very real would be the possiblity of them taking away everything you have by throwing you out of work.

    Before you refinance. Know their purpose. To set the clock way back to 30 years. More labor for them. Plus you will have more involved labor wise as to cost. Remeber the cost is not the paper but your labor and the time YOU HAVE to labor for what you want.

  2. anon595


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    Menlo Park, CA

    2   6:19am Wed 28 Dec 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Folks, if you watch the whole short interview Shiller expects prices to fall maybe 1% next year, mostly due to momentum, and says most economists expect prices to rise maybe 1%. In other words, fairly flat.

    He also says a couple times if you need a place to live, it's not a bad time to buy for the long term.

  3. Kingshat


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    3   6:44am Wed 28 Dec 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Isn't a financed asset at its highest value when interest rates are at their lowest and its value is at its lowest when rates are at their highest? Isn't that what enabled the bubble in the first place, low interest rates (and poor qualifing requirements)?

  4. ArtimusMaxtor


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    4   7:14am Wed 28 Dec 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Shiller fails in his comprehension. Anyone I mean anyone that advises you to get a 30 year note isn't your friend.

  5. LAO


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    5   8:25am Wed 28 Dec 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    ArtimusMaxtor says

    Shiller fails in his comprehension. Anyone I mean anyone that advises you to get a 30 year note isn't your friend.

    You do know you can pay off your mortgage in less than 30 years if you like? My parents paid extra each month and owned their home in under 20 years. 30 year mortgage at 3% rates is almost free money with inflation over 3% a year... If the 30 year mortgage expenses are less than renting then its a smart move.

  6. swilliamscc


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    6   8:29am Wed 28 Dec 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Home prices will drop until interest rates get closer to normal levels. I would say around 6% to 8% or more and people are required to put at least 20% down. The easy money of the fed pushing housing has failed miserably and proven to be unsustainable. Rates will some day soon have to correct and represent true risk again.

  7. uomo_senza_nome


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    7   8:56am Wed 28 Dec 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    swilliamscc says

    Home prices will drop until interest rates get closer to normal levels. I would say around 6% to 8% or more and people are required to put at least 20% down. The easy money of the fed pushing housing has failed miserably and proven to be unsustainable. Rates will some day soon have to correct and represent true risk again.

    I think people waiting for interest rates to rise (and therefore home prices to fall) are going to be disappointed.

    If you think US national debt is at crazy levels, you only have to look around and see that the rest of the world is mired in its own debt as well. US will be considered "safe" when compared to the rest of the world (may be we can add Germans to the list as well).

    I don't think there's even a hint of an alarm that US interest rates are going to rise. In fact, all the setup is there for the rates to fall further (without any central bank intervention).

  8. MoneySheep


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    San Diego, CA

    8   9:02am Wed 28 Dec 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    SoCal prices are all down, but not as much as Las Vegas, I hope they were.

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/05/31/business/economy/case-shiller-index.html?ref=business#city/IND20

    When I hear that "investors" are buying I get very nervous, wasnt that drove the mania?

    "...In Nevada, investors were snapping up single-family homes and restoring them, said Paul Bell, the president of the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors. ...."

  9. uomo_senza_nome


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    9   9:10am Wed 28 Dec 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Prof. Krugman agrees with my view above:

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/27/america-is-not-exceptional/

    interest rates have dropped sharply for every country that borrows in its own currency.

    MoneySheep says

    When I hear that "investors" are buying I get very nervous, wasnt that drove the mania?

    not really. If we can consider "investors" as smart ones, they'd have been selling at that mania phase, not buying. They would be buying now in selective places, where rental yields are very good.

    Three cheers for Rent Extraction!!!

  10. ArtimusMaxtor


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    10   9:41am Wed 28 Dec 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Los Angeles Owner says

    ArtimusMaxtor says

    Shiller fails in his comprehension. Anyone I mean anyone that advises you to get a 30 year note isn't your friend.

    You do know you can pay off your mortgage in less than 30 years if you like? My parents paid extra each month and owned their home in under 20 years. 30 year mortgage at 3% rates is almost free money with inflation over 3% a year... If the 30 year mortgage expenses are less than renting then its a smart move.

    Is it smart to buy in a negative equity market. With job loss figures waaay higher than they are saying closer to 27%. On top of that have you wondered why people are not buying? With sales figures way way lower than even their recent adjustment. Try 96% off of the NAR's figures instead of 30%. Again forget zillow and the like they are bogus in most cases. Check the deeds against claimed sales. People know somethings wrong and its kind of obvious.

  11. ArtimusMaxtor


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    11   9:53am Wed 28 Dec 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    uomo_senza_nome says

    not really. If we can consider "investors" as smart ones, they'd have been selling at that mania phase, not buying. They would be buying now in selective places, where rental yields are very good.
    Three cheers for Rent Extraction!!!

    Very True Uomo. Some did not get out. Many, Many took a really bad bath. Most of the guys I know will not go near this market. It is very tough to find cash to buy with on top of that. Investor is the riskest loan in the business as far as lenders are concerned. Even more so now. Refi is the name of the game. Truth be it. It's not smart to go to a 30 year most take the savings and run with it. Believe me I know whats going on out there. It ain't pretty. In San Fran hey maybe. You need to take a look at the rest of things So Fla is just fucked. I'm talking Kmart prices for some really nice stuff. No ones going near it. If you saw what happened their before the bust you would understand. Its not about what you can get. It's what its worth 3 months after you get it. No fucking investor in his right mind will buy and hold now of course. Rentals may be another game in San Fran. The rest of the world. Hey depends on where you are. Rentals are not good for value neighborhood wise of course. Even that is buy and hold even if for renting. Another words if your going to take a loss equity wise. Why get into it. Your climbing uphill. So I hope its good for all of you for sure. Investors I know rarely refi. To big of a pain in the ass. Its not the rate, its the amortization

  12. everything


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    12   4:02pm Wed 28 Dec 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    To me, cost of ownership is big, and growing, even if home prices are declining. In the face of declining real wages, I sold my home a few years back.

  13. APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch


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    13   10:59pm Wed 28 Dec 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yes - and there is no reason not to do this now. The stuff is online and a lot of Registrys post PDFs of filed documents, sometimes with margin notes. Reporters should be comparing posted sales to what is recorded at the Registry as a matter of course every week.

    ArtimusMaxtor says

    Check the deeds against claimed sales.

  14. ArtimusMaxtor


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    14   5:29am Thu 29 Dec 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero Happy new year Tony! Party, party. I've done it online (yes I have hehehe). I took about 12 records all crossfed all bogus.
    If you guys only understood what a dead screaching halt comes on in this kind of environment. You would understand anything counter to that is regarded as highly suspicious.

    Thing to really do here? Go around and look at those big Real Estate offices. That USED to be. Many brokers operating out of their houses now if they could get out of leases. Its that bad. Good New Year to all of my friends.

    Rents should fall in line with "buying" used to be rents were 1/2 for the nice stuff the price of "bought" homes. 1/4 the price for those hip singles communities that were fairly nice.

    The deal? Once again you need to comprehend. That being a labor. A house that you buy puts you in a much worse situation. As far as doing what the fractional wants. That "doing" can be fairly nasty. I've seen people do some really fucked up shit to others to make their house payments. More than likely thats the case. So if you have a friend that is a homeowner look out. I've seen parents "fuck up" their own kids that won't get in line. It's real and many of you know it. It's a preditory world is fucked up. People that have their own don't behave in the ways of the preditor debt merchant. People that are like that are just part of the way of the debt merchants. Thats all. People like me? Others that have their own? People not on their hook? They stay the fuck away us. Its way to hard for them. They get it believe me. Some of occupy understand. We can slap their face and they can't do anything about it.

    That being said rents were purposly put in line to match what a house payment would be. Apartments wear out fairly quickly. As a homeowner YOU DON'T OWN. One more time for the uncomprehensive. If they can throw you out you don't own. Your living in their asset. Not only that your taking care of their asset. While you go out and merrliy labor for the fractional.

    So as you can figure the debt merchants have many new build apartments where the rents fall in line with house payments.

    Once again. Thats hard to bust up. However going to something that is not new build negotiating your rent. Not signing a lease so if you find something better goes a long way.

    I have not gotten into the commercial properties. Shithammer is a good word for it. They are keeping that out of the news of course. The travel industry is fucked. Many airlines do not fly now.

  15. Dan8267


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    15   5:38pm Thu 29 Dec 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Shiller has done one and only one good thing: come up with the Case-Shiller index. Other than that, he has done nothing but promote the housing market.

    Shiller is like a scientist who refuses to believe what the math in his own theory states, which actually happens quite often. Everything in the Case-Shiller index says that in the sunbelt states, the places where the bubble hit, prices are still too high.

    When a scientist refutes what his theory states, I'm inclined to believe the theory rather than the scientist. Math does lie. People do lie to themselves.

  16. uomo_senza_nome


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    16   9:07pm Thu 29 Dec 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Dan8267 says

    come up with the Case-Shiller index

    Case Shiller index does not capture the whole housing market either.

    It doesn't take into account REO, investor flips, condos, townhouses/multi-family.

  17. Dan8267


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    17   6:59pm Sat 31 Dec 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    This Reggie guy is the first person on the news talking sense in a long time. I'll check out more of his stuff. He's blog is http://boombustblog.com/ and his YouTube channel is http://www.youtube.com/user/BoomBustBlog/featured

    Personally, I hate it when news casters say "we don't have much time left". Make time. Cut the crap out of your 24-hour news cycle and interview people in detail.

  18. APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch


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    18   11:19am Sun 1 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Great. Call the largest newspaper that covers the region and get a couple of the older business reporters on the phone if they have not been bought out so many times all they have is a burned out copy editor and teenagers running the desk. Tell them what you have; show them your primary documentation and show them how you drew your conclusions of bogusity of
    the posted sales.

    All they need to do is check your primary docs, then call the Realtors and ask them why they are committing fraud and then calling up the local prosecutor and asking when they can expect to see the convening of the grand jury.

    Then you might call them back after that story runs and suggest they do that same exercise in every zip code in their cachement area and see if there are actually ANY accurately posted sales being reported by those scum wads.

    ArtimusMaxtor says

    APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero Happy new year Tony! Party, party. I've done it online (yes I have hehehe). I took about 12 records all crossfed all bogus.

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