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Shadow inventory could be more than 10x times bigger than initially estimated

By dunnross   Follow   Thu, 5 Jan 2012, 6:17pm   16,822 views   211 comments
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"On Wednesday, Dec. 21st, 2011, HousingWire reports that CoreLogic projected shadow inventory to be 1.6 million homes throughout the entire United States. If Stern relayed the information correctly, and Fannie relayed it to him correctly, that figure looks more like it could be the shadow inventory of South Florida alone. "

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/01/michael-olenick-is-shadow-housing-inventory-vastly-larger-than-widely-believed.html?source=patrick.net#post-23586

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1. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,525 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   172   1:32am Thu 19 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says Actually, the Federal Reserve used the real gold to pay off the debts, and filled the Fort Knox reserves with gold-plated tungsten. That's what I thought. I bet the real gold is being stored on the moon. Apollo?? Nixon?? Hellooooooo!!!!!

2. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   173   1:39am Thu 19 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says That's what I thought. I bet the real gold is being stored on the moon. Apollo?? Nixon?? Hellooooooo!!!!! So, if you really believe that it's real gold at Fort Knox, why wouldn't they allow for a 3rd party audit?

3. ¥ Follow Befriend 35 threads 5,700 comments Bellingham, WA

   174   5:39am Thu 19 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says Flat folks. Why is it flat? If you can't answer the question about the present, what makes you think you can answer the question about the future? The end of suicide lending ca 2007 crashed prices in 2008 and they've been dropping the mortgage rate to support the price level: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=4qy plus people gotta live somewhere.

4. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,627 comments

   175   7:57am Thu 19 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   dunnross says iwog says That's what I thought. I bet the real gold is being stored on the moon. Apollo?? Nixon?? Hellooooooo!!!!! So, if you really believe that it's real gold at Fort Knox, why wouldn't they allow for a 3rd party audit? That's a great point. Also--why won't they release the Roswell files? Must be because a UFO crashed and alien bodies were recovered.

5. StoutFiles Follow Befriend (1) 24 threads 557 comments

   176   12:13pm Fri 20 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   dunnross says iwog says That's what I thought. I bet the real gold is being stored on the moon. Apollo?? Nixon?? Hellooooooo!!!!! So, if you really believe that it's real gold at Fort Knox, why wouldn't they allow for a 3rd party audit? 1. Because it would cost 15 million dollars for a professional audit of 700,000 gold bars. 2. Because the more silly requests they do, the more they'll be bugged to do more requests. Next we'll be building a super telescope so people can see the moon landing site. I don't want my taxes paying for this stuff. 3. If by some chance you were right, why would you want to kill our dollar by uncovering this? Ignorance is bliss here. Gold is a silly thing to give so much monetary value anyway. I'd rather we do a fake audit and say we have twice as much gold than we do.

6. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   177   2:40pm Fri 20 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   StoutFiles says 1. Because it would cost 15 million dollars for a professional audit of 700,000 gold bars. $15M is nothing. Ron Paul will gladly pay for this out of his own pocket, if only they let him do it.

7. StoutFiles Follow Befriend (1) 24 threads 557 comments

   178   9:04pm Fri 20 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says StoutFiles says 1. Because it would cost 15 million dollars for a professional audit of 700,000 gold bars. $15M is nothing. Ron Paul will gladly pay for this out of his own pocket, if only they let him do it. Okay, but how would this audit benefit the country in any way? Also, Ron Paul does not have 15 million dollars. His net worth is closer to 5 million.

8. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   179   4:49am Sat 21 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   StoutFiles says Okay, but how would this audit benefit the country in any way? "My Administration is committed to creating an unprecedented level of openness in Government. We will work together to ensure the public trust and establish a system of transparency, public participation, and collaboration. Openness will strengthen our democracy and promote efficiency and effectiveness in Government." - Barack Obama

9. TMAC54 Follow Befriend (9) 70 threads 930 comments San Leandro, CA

   180   7:06am Sat 21 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   SO ,,,, Now we equate "SHADOW INVENTORY WITH GOLD" http://www.inman.com/news/2012/01/20/real-estate-sales-end-2011-positive-note-chart note: 1/3 of the sales are distressed.dunnross says "My Administration is committed to creating an unprecedented level of openness in Government. We will work together to ensure the public trust and establish a system of transparency, public participation, and collaboration. Openness will strengthen our democracy and promote efficiency and effectiveness in Government." - Barack Obama

10. AnotherLaura Follow Befriend 13 comments Harrison, AR

    181   7:13am Sat 21 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   In the 1960s and 1970s, most of my aunts and uncles in my huge family lived in 3 bedroom/1 bath houses built in the '50s. These were all-white neighborhoods that would have been considered "middle class" or at least "working class" as late as the mid 1970s. Now, however, almost all of the aunts and uncles have moved from their original neighborhoods (in various parts of the Midwest and Mid-South) because the old neighborhood is now all or mostly minority, with bad schools and lots of crime. The Case-Shiller index is interesting because it compares the same house at different points in time, but it does have some problems, because the demographics of the neighborhoods have changed so much. Middle class people don't want to live in a scary neighborhood in a house that only has one bathroom, even if the lots are large and the landscaping is mature. There are areas of California where the 1950s houses have done well price-wise, but in Midwestern and Southern cities that I am familiar with, they have NOT fared well at all.

11. Nomograph Follow Befriend (1) 104 threads 2,851 comments

    182   7:21am Sat 21 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   AnotherLaura says There are areas of California where the 1950s houses have done well price-wise, but in Midwestern and Southern cities that I am familiar with, they have NOT fared well at all. That's because California has a top-tier higher education system that produces world class scientists, engineers, and doctors. Our tech, biotech, and medical research communities are huge economic engines and the envy of the world. Kentucky has Rand Paul and the Creation Museum. You do the math.

12. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,627 comments

    183   7:25am Sat 21 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Starving Realtor says And Buffalo, NY had a top-tier higher education system that produced industry titans. Now look at it. Weather may play a bit of a factor too.

13. Nomograph Follow Befriend (1) 104 threads 2,851 comments

    184   7:49am Sat 21 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Starving Realtor says And Buffalo, NY had a top-tier higher education system Buffalo has a third-tier education system, lower second-tier at best. You don't exactly think of Buffalo, NY as a mecca for science, engineering, and medicine now, do you?

14. Nomograph Follow Befriend (1) 104 threads 2,851 comments

    185   7:51am Sat 21 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I'm still wondering how much money you lost during the housing crash. That realtor must have really gotten one over on you. ANSWER THE QUESTION.

15. AnotherLaura Follow Befriend 13 comments Harrison, AR

    186   8:35am Sat 21 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I don't think California's current educational system is much to brag about. I guess the U of C system is still very highly regarded. The K-12 system is badly broken. My children attended Newport Beach public schools in the early 90s. They were overcrowded and the curriculum was nothing but trendy nonsense. I think the reason that 50s houses have held up better in California is that the 50s houses were often built in the more desirable areas closer to the beaches, keeping at least some of the neighborhoods from becoming slum areas. In midland cities, the geography surrounding the urban core generally doesn't vary dramatically. There is typically a good side of town and a bad side of town, with the center of town generally having high crime and bad schools. Land is cheap, and people don't have any reason to stay in an older neighborhood once the neighborhood starts having big problems. Consequently, many well-constructed brick 50s houses in the area north of St. Louis can be had for less than $20,000, while 50s houses west of St. Louis may have become very valuable if they are still in a good school district with low crime. The median house price and the Case Schiller index are interesting in terms of general trends, but you shouldn't base a decision to buy or sell on any sort of regional average.

16. clambo Follow Befriend (5) 1,070 comments Santa Cruz, CA

    187   10:07am Sat 21 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Maybe a bit off the subject, but a few comments mentioned demographics. I see this as a possible problem also. Where I live there are TONS of anchor babies who are barely literate high school slackers with no ambition or skills. Their parents are high school dropouts from Oaxaca, etc. who are therefore barely literate. The other various and sundry slack-jawed punks are frequently from single parent homes and these ne'er-do-wells also are pretty useless. The lack of housing at UCSC means there is a healthy rental market here, and of course, almost all of the other apartments are illegals and their families. There are TONS of sec. 8 people, and people on SSI getting monthly checks because they convinced the govt. that they were 1. bipolar 2. depressed 3. etc. and therefore have a "disability". Downtown is of course infested also with hordes of skells shuffling up and down Pacific ave begging or doing whatever they do. I suppose someone inclined to be a landlord here could pick up a place that was foreclosed and become a cop wondering when his tenants were going to destroy, burn down, break the toilet, etc. etc. No thanks. Vanguard High Yield Corporate Bond fund, High Yield Tax-Free, Total Bond Market Index. Want capital appreciation? That's another asset class.

17. maxweber Follow Befriend 7 threads 65 comments Charlotte, NC

    188   7:11pm Sun 22 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   In my sub-neighborhood of a about 25 houses currently, about 4 are built and SOLD. But nobody has moved into them. Maybe 4 other sold starts and a few other specs. But, has anyone else seen SOLD with no occupancy? Its been a few months for two of them....

18. CBETA Follow Befriend 4 threads 41 comments Milpitas, CA

    189   9:42pm Sun 22 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says iwog says These people are currently renting, but over the next few years will see their rents rise and will be itching to become owners again. They may be itching, but no one is scratching them. 99% of those people have never had the financial fortitude to come up with even a 1% down-payment, let alone a 20% which is required by banks, today. You kidding, right? Many of those did not have 5%, 10%, or 20% when during the bubble, but be sure, they do have 20-30% for a downpayment now when the prices have fallen! Furthermore as being savvy with money and counting only on themselves and not on 'future growth of RE', they never wanted to pay less than 20% because that meant PMI (a throwaway $). Even now renters who CAN buy are cautious, they are willing to buy if they need it - i.e. family, at risk of having to overpay a bit as prices do still fall. Others are strategically waiting or purposely taking a more distressed property at lower cost and invest to make they candy out of it (rather than live with someone else's candy)

19. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    190   12:49am Mon 23 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   CBETA says You kidding, right? Many of those did not have 5%, 10%, or 20% when during the bubble, but be sure, they do have 20-30% for a downpayment now when the prices have fallen! CBETA. I think you need to go back to school and take your math class again. If somebody didn't have 5% during the bubble, prices would have to fall more than 75% from the peak, for them to afford 20% or 83% to afford 30%. Where do you know of a place where prices have fallen this much?

20. CBETA Follow Befriend 4 threads 41 comments Milpitas, CA

    191   1:18am Mon 23 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The reason they may not have had that money during the bubble. For example, could be, that they just entered the workforce and had no significant savings yet. Also 5% from 600K is 30K, where is in the same area houses are now closer(Grimmer) to 400K and 20% is 80K. In 5 years, those with a degree and a goal are capable of saving $80K... I personally know a few. Hence it is not just math. It is time that worked for them and goal that they worked on. One example; http://www.redfin.com/CA/Fremont/4726-Victoria-Ave-94538/home/1110471 Note not every house in this neighborhood is like that, varies street by street. Is everyone was able to achieve same - of course not. Reminds me of this Колхозное собрание. Отчитывается главный зоотехник: (All hands at a Farm. Key technician is providing status) – ...в среднем от каждой коровы мы надоили 7 тонн молока. (.. on average from each cow we got 7 tonn of milk) Встает из зала бабка, спрашивает: (An older woman gets up and asks:) – Милок, что такое в среднем? (Dear, what is 'on average'?) – Ивановна, взять к примеру корову Зорьку, она дает 3 тонны, а Звездочка – 13, а в среднем они дают 8. Понятно? (Well, if you for example take cow 1, she gives 3 tonns, whereas cow 2 - 13, but on average they give 8. Understand?) – Люди, так шо эта деется... Если секретарша председателя Ленка даёт ему и главному инженеру, а доярка Машка – каждому механизатору, то в среднем по колхозу и я блядь получаюсь?! (People, what is this... If director's secretary Lenka f* him and principle engineer, milkmaid Mashka f* each mechanic, then on average for our farm, I am a whore????)

21. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,525 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    192   11:57am Mon 23 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says CBETA. I think you need to go back to school and take your math class again. If somebody didn't have 5% during the bubble, prices would have to fall more than 75% from the peak, for them to afford 20% or 83% to afford 30%. Where do you know of a place where prices have fallen this much? You realize that many people are living in their pending foreclosures for YEARS without paying a cent right? Perhaps they were saving for a down payment. Anyway you're dead wrong as usual. Prices are low and federal programs are still intact. It's going to shock the hell out of you when millions of Americans caught in the bubble are suddenly out of credit jail and shopping for a home again. I doubt you'll be able to stand it.

22. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 170 threads 4,186 comments Premium

    193   3:34pm Mon 23 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says It's going to shock the hell out of you when millions of Americans caught in the bubble are suddenly out of credit jail and shopping for a home again. Of course! They'll run straight into the arms of the friendly Realtor®, tongue lolling, grunting his reassuring message, 'Nebba bedda time to buyyyyyyy! You buy now! Me go get mortgage broker to take your pulse and qualify you!' Thus reassured that This Time It's Different, they'll sign anything put in front of them confident that the Housing Crime Syndicate would never lie to them TWICE in a lifetime.

23. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,525 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    194   4:13pm Mon 23 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   GameOver says Not likely. More feasible scenario; they're using the skipped mortgage payments to play catch-up (albeit unsuccessfully) with their CREDIT CARD payments. I personally know at least 5 families doing this; This isn't the norm. The number of people I personally know through my bankruptcy practice who have been living free for months or even years is huge. I'm buying a house next door that has had a squatter paying $0 rent since December 2010. My wife's cousin floated free for nearly two years. I have a pair of related female clients who have Fremont condos and neither one has paid a bill since 2009 and they still don't have a sale date. Yes people are paying down debt, but the largest single expense is and always has been housing. The same people who wanted to buy in the first place and are being foreclosed on are the very people who desperately want to buy again. Credit jail lasts a maximum of 5 years. It's not logical to ignore the windfall that many of these people are receiving through the horrid banking system. This is year 4 of the bear market. I'm betting that year 5 is going to be the last.

24. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,525 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    195   4:16pm Mon 23 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Collapsing Housing Prices says He's quite right. You on the other hand are a lying realtor and underwater loan-owner. I'm in escrow on one house and almost in escrow on another one. Sucks don't it. I wonder where all that cash came from............. (hint: rents are going up)

25. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,525 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    196   4:20pm Mon 23 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Collapsing Housing Prices says pssssssssssst... Rents are falling Cupcake. Enjoy the ride down. ;) Evidence? No of course not. You just make shit up.

26. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,525 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    197   4:33pm Mon 23 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Collapsing Housing Prices says Like I say, you know exactly what I'm talking about. And you know exactly where to find the information. Your realtor lies will land you in jail. Promise. You're a pathetic liar. Believing that real estate has further to fall is a legitimate position. Making up facts is not. Post the information or leave the site. We have enough trolls here already.

27. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,525 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    198   4:40pm Mon 23 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Collapsing Housing Prices says And putting on a sanctimonous act isn't going to work for you lying bastards either. You realtors need a new playbook. That's nice. You made a claim. Back it up with actual data or admit you made it up. How long are you going to run away? How pathetic do you want to look on this site?

28. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    199   10:11pm Mon 23 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   CBETA says they just entered the workforce and had no significant savings yet Hi SBETA, With the "real" unemployment or underemployment rate above 20%, and prices of everything (except housing) going up every year, unfortunately reality is not on the side of those who are trying to save money for a down payment. Yes, there will be exceptions (outliers), but those outliers will not prevent prices to continue falling to their "fair value", and, even lower, because, when we are talking about real estate prices or trends, we are talking about the law of large numbers: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers And, also, your joke is funny, but it's not true. Even though your babushka may say that she is not a whore, odds are greatly against her, so, most likely, she probably is.

29. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    200   11:16pm Mon 23 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Nomograph says Foreclosures are a matter of public record. There is no secret shadow inventory. Shadow inventory is not just the foreclosure inventory. It also includes delinquent loans. Foreclosures represent less than 1/3 of the total shadow inventory, akin to the top of an iceberg, where the bulk of it is "under water" - pun intended.

30. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,525 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    201   12:56am Tue 24 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says Shadow inventory is not just the foreclosure inventory. It also includes delinquent loans So loans that aren't even in the foreclosure process are part of the shadow inventory?

31. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    202   5:58am Tue 24 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says So loans that aren't even in the foreclosure process are part of the shadow inventory? Yes: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/10/15/2456154/shadow-inventory-of-homes-could.html

32. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,525 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    203   8:48am Tue 24 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Really!!!!! So 100% of the homes that are 31 days late are going to be sold into the market through the foreclosure process to become inventory. That's odd because I was 31 days late on a payment once, and my house never became inventory. I simply caught up the payments. Would you like to change your answer?

33. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    204   9:26am Tue 24 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says eally!!!!! So 100% of the homes that are 31 days late are going to be sold into the market through the foreclosure process to become inventory. You picked the low-end of the range. As the number of days goes up, risk of foreclosure increases exponentially. At 90 days late, there is more than 95% chance that the exit-strategy is foreclosure.

34. lurking Follow Befriend 6 threads 130 comments

    205   11:58am Tue 24 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Hey Iwog, I respect your opinion on here. what do you think is going to happen with housing and/or rates when Fannie and Freddie are required to tack on an extra 1/2 point or so to loans on February 29th as required so as to pay for the so-called "payroll tax cut?" It won't affect me either way because I have all of my property ambitions out of the way now, most of my properties have been paid for for some years now, and just a few with small 3.875% loans. I just signed to button up a re-fi this week for one. With the end of the month almost here, a holiday coming up next month and a 3 day delay for the California right of recission, anyone that isn't in re-finance mode this week probably won't make it before the new "fees" kick in if they hope to close in 30 days.

35. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,525 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    206   2:50pm Tue 24 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says You picked the low-end of the range. As the number of days goes up, risk of foreclosure increases exponentially. At 90 days late, there is more than 95% chance that the exit-strategy is foreclosure. Do you have any data to support this or did you just make it up? The reality is that people who are late paying their mortgage DO NOT represent inventory, shadow or otherwise. Some will catch up the payments, some are trying for a loan modification, some are simply buying somewhere else and doing a strategic default. Then of course there are some who will eventually face foreclosure, and will then become renters..........sometimes in the very same house they lost to the bank. I personally have a renter who did exactly that. He lost his house, I bought it, and he's renting it now. Calling any of this inventory really does expose the irrational views being displayed here. When all is said and done, everyone is still going to need a house.

36. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,525 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    207   2:52pm Tue 24 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   lurking says Hey Iwog, I respect your opinion on here. what do you think is going to happen with housing and/or rates when Fannie and Freddie are required to tack on an extra 1/2 point or so to loans on February 29th as required so as to pay for the so-called "payroll tax cut?" Dunno but I imagine it's not going to have much effect. .5 points on a loan moves the interest rate by about 1/8th. Besides a large part of the current market is cash.

37. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,525 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    208   2:55pm Tue 24 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Never Trust Realtors says The reality is your LYING again. Really now! So a house that someone is living in and is 31 days late is inventory, and I can go purchase it. My idiot meter is about to crack here. You really gotta stop.

38. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,525 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    209   2:59pm Tue 24 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Never Trust Realtors says Yes really now. Get over it and get on with your life you lying realtor. Do you know what inventory means?

39. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,525 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    210   3:08pm Tue 24 Jan 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Time to put the troll on ignore. If you change your name again to avoid the filter, I'm going to ask Patrick to block your IP. Enough is enough.

40. Ozxvdrcxq Follow Befriend 1 comments

    211   2:24am Tue 5 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Поисковая учение мира Версии ПС доступны практически на всех известных языках. Найдётся всё! Google.ru . ozxvewnie@gmail.com

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