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AAPL to $500?


By Vicente   Follow   Fri, 6 Jan 2012, 6:16am PST   20,855 views   217 comments
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Starting my New Year with a nice bump on the AAPL I picked up last year.

Consensus on AAPL to $500? It's testing 52-week high.

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evilmonkeyboy   Wed, 27 Mar 2013, 1:04pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 178

My phone is great! It is a reasonable size, has a good size screen and is very funtional. There is no way a watch will replace my phone. To me it is a gimmick and I would not waste money on it.

evilmonkeyboy   Wed, 27 Mar 2013, 1:16pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 179

Bellingham Bill says

My bud has a Leaf and its key fob is pretty cool (just put the fob in your pocket and you don't need a key for the car), I could see the watch getting that functionality too.

First of all it would make a lot more sense to have this technology on your phone vs a watch.
Second, I doubt that apple wants to get any where near key fobs because it opens up a whole new can of worms with the issue of stolen cars. Plus, who wants to have to enter a password on their phone to unlock their car or have to worry about their watch being charged to get into their car.

Bellingham Bill   Wed, 27 Mar 2013, 5:09pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 180

evilmonkeyboy says

has a good size screen and is very funtional. There is no way a watch will replace my phone. To me it is a gimmick and I would not waste money on it.

I can see it being a 2nd touchscreen for your phone.

Combine it with an earpiece and you'd never have to take your phone out.

Plus in the future the smartwatch would have the cell radio so it'd be the phone, too.

Be cool if the band were the battery. Shit, I should patent that . . .

JodyChunder   Wed, 27 Mar 2013, 5:24pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 181

Be even cooler if more folks didn't feel the overwhelming "need" to have the internet with them at all times everywhere they went.

Besides, it could never rival my old Omega:

thomaswong.1986   Wed, 27 Mar 2013, 7:49pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 182

JodyChunder says

Be even cooler if more folks didn't feel the overwhelming "need" to have the internet with them at all times everywhere they went.

they are children... the need to burn money and then blame the "man" on why they are dirt poor at the end of the month..

oh well !

bmwman91   Thu, 28 Mar 2013, 7:01am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 183

JodyChunder says

Be even cooler if more folks didn't feel the overwhelming "need" to have the internet with them at all times everywhere they went.

Amen brother.

MsBennet   Thu, 28 Mar 2013, 5:41pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 184

If I was a person who liked to short stocks, I would short Apple now. Samsung is coming out with a new phone that apparently is much better than the iPhone: Bigger screen, faster, removable battery, better screen clarity, etc. Apple is
442 right now.

bmwman91   Thu, 28 Mar 2013, 6:31pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike (1)     Comment 185

Hard to say MsBennet. Friends that worked there were all telling me to load up on calls during the last two quarterly earnings releases because AAPL was going to show solid revenue growth (thank god I didn't). Well, they did, and the market shat all over AAPL anyway. So, while there does look to be a case for buying puts on AAPL, it's just too damn volatile and high profile to try to make fundamental-based decisions on in the short term. EVERYONE is trying to game it, and while AAPL is a highly profitable company that isn't going out of business anytime soon, trying to cash in on options with it has worse odds than picking a color at the roulette table.

EDIT: I accidentally hit "Dislike" instead of "Edit". LOLZ

yup1   Thu, 28 Mar 2013, 7:20pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 186

MsBennet says

If I was a person who liked to short stocks, I would short Apple now. Samsung is coming out with a new phone that apparently is much better than the iPhone: Bigger screen, faster, removable battery, better screen clarity, etc. Apple is
442 right now.

Apple has had an inferior product to Samsung since May 2011 when the Galaxy S-2 Skyrocket (AT&T) came out. That phone is superior to the Iphone 5. Dual core 1.5 ghz, 8mp camera, NFC, 4.5" display, LTE, replacable battery, micro SD card expansion. That phone was brilliant. I would argue that the Skyrocket is still a better device than the Iphone 5, and it is almost 2 year old technology.

You can also select any number of phones that are vastly superior to the Iphone 5. The Note 1, S-3, and Note 2 all come to mind.

I personally carry the Note 2. It is the best available phone at the moment. You can pick up a slightly used one on craigslist for 450 bucks or so, go get a prepaid 35-50 dollar cellphone plan and ditch your carrier who is charging you an arm and a leg for subsidized Iphones.

As far as an Iwatch, I have not read anything that even gets me remotely interested in putting a watch back on my wrist. Apple would have to come out with some killer software that everyone has completely missed. Maybe they will. I wouldn't bet on it though.

zzyzzx   Thu, 28 Mar 2013, 11:10pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 187

bmwman91 says

EDIT: I accidentally hit "Dislike" instead of "Edit". LOLZ

I'm pretty sure that everyone here has clicked on the wrong one at least once.

IMO, Apple seems to be in a trading range and probably good for nothing except short term trading.

MsBennet   Fri, 29 Mar 2013, 2:24am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 188

yup1 says

craigslist for 450 bucks or so, go get a prepaid 35-50 dollar cellphone plan and ditch your carrier who is charging you an arm and a leg for subsidized Iphones.

Are you talking about like the Walmart plan? For a smartphone it can be 35-50 dollars? Sounds good to me.

zzyzzx   Fri, 29 Mar 2013, 2:34am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 189

Market is closed today for Good Friday.

bmwman91   Fri, 29 Mar 2013, 5:40am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 190

MsBennet says

yup1 says

craigslist for 450 bucks or so, go get a prepaid 35-50 dollar cellphone plan and ditch your carrier who is charging you an arm and a leg for subsidized Iphones.

Are you talking about like the Walmart plan? For a smartphone it can be 35-50 dollars? Sounds good to me.

www.virginmobileusa.com

You pay for the device (somewhat limited options), $35/month unlimited data and texts, 300 minutes, no contracts. I have used it for years and am very happy. When VM gets the Galaxy S3 I will get a new device (Sprint, the bastards they partner with in the USA, is limiting their devices to get people to want to use Sprint's more expensive plans).

mell   Fri, 29 Mar 2013, 7:14am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 191

bmwman91 says

MsBennet says

yup1 says

craigslist for 450 bucks or so, go get a prepaid 35-50 dollar cellphone plan and ditch your carrier who is charging you an arm and a leg for subsidized Iphones.

Are you talking about like the Walmart plan? For a smartphone it can be 35-50 dollars? Sounds good to me.

www.virginmobileusa.com

You pay for the device (somewhat limited options), $35/month unlimited data and texts, 300 minutes, no contracts. I have used it for years and am very happy. When VM gets the Galaxy S3 I will get a new device (Sprint, the bastards they partner with in the USA, is limiting their devices to get people to want to use Sprint's more expensive plans).

Also look at Wireless Republic. We have 2 in the family and pay $19 ($23 after tax and surcharges) per line (separate month -to-month contracts), unlimited everything, If you need in-person customer service, then don't bother, otherwise it's worth checking out. They have a seamless Wifi/Sprint switching system and you are encouraged to offload as many calls as possible, but it's not a mandate. Quality is decent, but you have to buy their phone, a Motorola Defy XT.

zzyzzx   Mon, 1 Apr 2013, 5:07am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 192

http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/technology/articles/Apple2527s-Stock-Price-Is-Still-Dropping/4/1/2013/id/49007

Since hitting an all-time high of $702.10 in September, Apple shares have slid some 35%. The drop is worse when you consider that the Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) has risen 2.32% while the Dow (INDEXDJX:.DJI) has gained almost 7% in the same time period.

Apple shareholders got further bad news today as it was reported that the $92 billion Fidelity Contrafund, managed by Will Danoff, had reduced its stake in the iPhone maker by 10% in the first two months of 2013. According to its most recent monthly report, Fidelity, the largest active shareholder in Apple, held 10.43 million shares of Apple at the end of February. At the end of 2012, the fund had owned 11.56 million shares. News of Fidelity's actions probably explains why Apple has fallen over 1.5% in intraday trading so far today.

thunderlips11   Mon, 1 Apr 2013, 12:04pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 193

BoomAndBustCycle says

They might be worried about the history of Nokia repeating itself. Trees don't grow to the sky. OTOH, if I had to bet on AAPL (P/E=10) or FB (PE=289), I'd bet AAPL.

Android is an open source OS any manufacturer can license, in fact the Open Source Consortium (a partnership of many firms from around the world, from Samsung to HTC to Google, as well as multiple phone companies in the US and around the world) wants as many companies using it in their phones as possible. Android runs on a Linux kernel.

Apple does not license their proprietary black box OS at all, period, to other manufacturers and certainly never their direct competition in the mobile device field.

Google does not manufacture devices, it only writes software. Apple does both.

Android was mocked when first introduced. Yet despite Apple's incredible, massive lead over it, it is now far and away the dominant mobile OS.

zzyzzx   Wed, 17 Apr 2013, 12:19am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 194

Down to $406.41/sh 10:18AM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price

Graybox   Wed, 17 Apr 2013, 12:22am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 195

Graybox says

Going to 350/sh (odds?)

High Probability

zzyzzx   Wed, 17 Apr 2013, 3:59am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 196

http://news.yahoo.com/apple-stock-falls-one-low-supplier-news-154902181--finance.html

Apple stock falls to one-year low on supplier news

NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Apple Inc. fell below $400 for the first time in a year and half on Wednesday, after a supplier hinted at a slowdown in iPhone and iPad production.

The stock was down $21.89, or 5.1 percent, at $404.35 in early afternoon trading. Earlier in the day, it hit $398.11, the lowest level since Dec. 2011.

The decline means Apple has —for now— lost its position as the world's most valuable publicly traded company to Exxon Mobil Corp., which has a market capitalization a few billion dollars above Apple's $380 billion price tag.

Late Tuesday, Cirrus Logic Inc., which supplies audio chips for the iPhone and iPad, said sales of a particular chip are slowing down as an unnamed customer moves to a newer component.

Analyst Peter Misek at Jefferies & Co. said Cirrus' news suggests a big decline in Apple sales in the April to June period. That supports his view that Apple is unlikely to launch a new iPad Mini in the quarter, and that the next version of the full-size iPad may launch late in the quarter rather than early. In the last three years, Apple has launched a new iPad in March or April.

Apple does not comment on its suppliers' announcements or its product plans. It's set to report results for the January to March quarter on Tuesday.

The latest decline in the stock comes after a bruising winter for Apple. The company's stock is down 42 percent from its all-time high of $705.07, hit on Sept. 21 when the iPhone 5 went on sale. Investors have concluded that with the demise of co-founder Steve Jobs, Apple may never again create another ground-breaking product of the magnitude of the iPhone or iPad.

Hysteresis   Wed, 17 Apr 2013, 3:29pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 197

aapl down to $398 today.

Vicente   Wed, 17 Apr 2013, 5:44pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 198

This thread is still going?

Personally I mostly unloaded AAPL a while back although I did keep a small block.

If it hits $350 I will think hard about reloading.

Graybox   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 1:59am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 199

Vicente says

Personally I mostly unloaded AAPL a while back although I did keep a small block.

If it hits $350 I will think hard about reloading.

Although I don't own any myself it happens to be 1 I follow.

This is how I see it going down... Watch price @ 385 for some "short term buying", which would be the only way I would be trading AAPL at this time. I would split my risk and perhaps take a shot @385 for 40pts +/-, not a all in situation however it very well could turn into it. Ultimately, my plan would be to "TEST buys" if it gets to 360-350 and leave a 1/3 or what ever your risk management allows for the possibility of the 325s. Make the M-Ms prove "price" to you with solid confirmation.

Wish you well, just don't get in a hurry or ahead of the market and trade it based on price performance.

Graybox   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 2:08am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 200

Regardless of all that you hear AAPL 250-200 isn't off the table, it's just to soon to calc. the odds.

BoomAndBustCycle   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 3:04am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 201

chanakya4773 says

where is clambo and thomas wang.

Probably in bankruptcy.

Graybox   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 6:28am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 202

My reasoning has very little to do with fundamentals being that I am a conceptual/technical trader. I know markets do what the hell they want regardless of all the fundamental talk.

However, I am aware of some of the fundamental attributes, I just leave those for the longer term investors, because I am 1 who shoots for tops and bottoms which fundamentals are useless for that purpose.

My system calculates logical price points that contain the odds and edge based on several factors and anchors that weigh price, and it is simply pointing @350+/-, and as a trader I can test other price points along the way, however treating them more like counter trend measures instead of home run plays so at a min. I will have something in the game if price is knocked out of the field. Your welcome to look at some of my other comments and judge my tactics yourself.

I apologize if my answer is void of much help to you which is probably due to me actually being a trader. The odds are I make more trade in a month then most do in their life time giving me some edge over others just due to the pure experience in volume.

Depending on the circumstance 500/1 leverage is on the table for certain trades I participate, which all I can say about that is you better know your odds and have solid risk management practices.

I am far from a sophisticated investor, I'm just a trader that will take the trades as they come regardless of what the gurus and experts have to say.

bmwman91   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 6:54am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 203

Graybox says

I am far from a sophisticated investor, I'm just a trader that will take the trades as they come regardless of what the gurus and experts have to say.

Aren't the gurus and experts just there to get on the mainstream news and herd the retail sheep? I don't really ascribe much value to the highly publicized experts' opinions because I don't believe that anything they do is in anyone's interest but their own. There have been some (apparent) exceptions, but I trust nobody.

Vicente   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 7:02am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 204

Do the numbers support the Doomers?

Vicente   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 7:04am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 205

chanakya4773 says

Why do you think $350 is the bottom ?

I could go on about P/E. I could prognosticate with lots of charts. In this case I'm going on nothing other than that's about what I bought my first AAPL shares for back around the time the iPad1 came out.

Graybox   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 7:42am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 206

Vicente says

Do the numbers support the Doomers?

They are not my #s so I don't have an opinion. I said about all I can say about my best "guess" as to what "I" see the possibilities.

Vicente says

I bought my first AAPL shares for back around the time the iPad1 came out.

My question for you is; did you take any profits since you bought, and if not "why"?

mell   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 7:49am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 207

Seems like Samsung and Android in general will be dominating the mobile phone market by commoditization - unstoppable juggernauts.

Vicente   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 1:59pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 208

Graybox says

My question for you is; did you take any profits since you bought

Yes several times over.

Vicente   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 2:01pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 209

mell says

Seems like Samsung and Android in general will be dominating the mobile phone market by commoditization - unstoppable juggernauts.

Based on what? I'm not saying you're wrong, but I haven't seen yet where Android sales have taken off, looks flat as a pancake.

mell   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 2:13pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 210

Vicente says

mell says

Seems like Samsung and Android in general will be dominating the mobile phone market by commoditization - unstoppable juggernauts.

Based on what? I'm not saying you're wrong, but I haven't seen yet where Android sales have taken off, looks flat as a pancake.

http://techland.time.com/2013/04/16/ios-vs-android/

This is a decent overview and comes up as first hit when you search. While AAPL is still making more profits from their sales the trend by numbers (not profit) seems clear. I have no positions in either, I just think it is risky to buy back here as I think the general market is looking somewhat toppy (commodities not acting that great) here and there's some sideways/downside risk.

adarmiento   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 2:16pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 211

Too much competition from Android operating system (Samsung smart phones, Google tablets, Google chromebooks) and low-cost Windows 8 laptops are the main reasons to take Apple down a notch.

Apple just does not have a breakthrough product line like it did from 2000 to 2010 with the IMac, Apple Book, Ipod, Iphone, and Ipad.

Hence, even though Seekingalpha.com shows a forward P/E ratio of around 10, I see Apple having to readjust growth projections downward for the next year or two.

Graybox   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 2:33pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 212

Vicente says

Graybox says

My question for you is; did you take any profits since you bought

Yes several times over.

Nice, good for you Vicente I see so many who let great profits disappear into just as great of losses. I never figured out the purpose they might have for doing so.. Just makes absolutely no since to me.

everything   Thu, 25 Apr 2013, 6:31am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 213

I just heard on the news, that Apple, instead of paying dividends out of cash .. they borrow the money to pay out dividends. Supposedly more corporations are getting back into borrowing again, money is so cheap that way, it's just hard to resist.

Vicente   Thu, 25 Apr 2013, 7:27am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 214

FFS, can't you folks badmouth AAPL harder?

I need it down to 350! And you guys are waffling on your job so it's stuck around 400. Hop to it!

jvolstad   Thu, 25 Apr 2013, 8:43am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 215

An Apple Smartwatch? I haven't worn a watch in years. If I want to check on the time, I look at my Android based Smartphone.

Hysteresis   Thu, 25 Apr 2013, 9:08am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 216

i was looking for a smartwatch (before i knew apple was making one).

i want something that will let me keep track of various things and i'm too lazy to carry a phone or tablet all the time.

it'd mainly be for entering work items i've done, diet information (what did i eat), and exercise information.

the watch is the best form factor since it's always with me.

if it has an accelerometer i might be able to get rid of my nike fuelband.
if it has a camera i might be able to just take pictures of what i eat instead of typing data (then i can estimate if i pigged out just by looking at pictures).

if it's made by apple, there's a very good chance it'll look good. apple understands aesthetics are important.

some watches can be priced excessively high if they are considered jewellery which means high margins. i don't know if apple can pull it off, but if they can i can see them opening a new billion dollar market.

bmwman91   Thu, 25 Apr 2013, 10:46am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 217

Friends of mine that are hardware engineers at Apple have been telling me that there is an exodus of employees right now. Engineers, leads, mid-level managers and some directors. They are going to Google, Lab 126 and Microsoft. The stock price dip has effectively halved the compensation incentive for working "Apple hours" and dealing with the pressure cooker environment there, and people are starting to walk. People there know what the competitors pay, and AAPL shares were a big leg-up for employee retention. Now that overall compensation is falling closer to what the competitors offer, Apple folks are thinking, "I can go work at X Inc. and make about as much money for fewer hours and less stress." Google is a little bit of an exception in that friends that have gone there say that the hours are long and the pressure high, but they compensate at least as well as Apple used to.

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