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AAPL to $500?


By Vicente   Follow   Fri, 6 Jan 2012, 6:16am PST   21,468 views   217 comments
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Starting my New Year with a nice bump on the AAPL I picked up last year.

Consensus on AAPL to $500? It's testing 52-week high.

Kevin   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 2:37pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 1

BoomAndBustCycle says

So on the two largest telcos in the U.S... 74% of all phones sold are IPHONES.. and Wall Street panic sells?

If only the two largest US carriers were the entire smartphone market. Or even the entire US market. Or even the majority of the US market...

Investors are making bets. They're betting that Apple's growth isn't sustainable. It's pretty simple, actually.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Kevin says

Apple only employs about 30000 people in Cupertino. Most don't live there. They don't exist in a vacuum.

I never said they did. What I was insinuating was that Apple's stock has given many employees the ability to pay double or more than they should for a sugar shack in Cupertino. With this latest drop you can be sure the real estate market will suffer in that area. Back to reality sucks.

Kinda depends on where the investors take their money. Most of what has been taken out of Apple has been added to Google, Facebook, and other tech companies.

Apple isn't the only game in town, or even the largest employer. Rank and file employees don't get enough RSUs to be buying million dollar houses. The overall impact will be insignificant, just like the uptick from the round of IPOs over the last couple years was insignificant.

tr6   Wed, 13 Feb 2013, 8:19am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 2

The biggest wildcard is the compression of margins. I just bought an iPad mini and Google Nexus 7. For many people it's becoming harder to justify to pay for a bigger iPad with more memory when you can get pretty much the same thing cheaper.

bmwman91   Thu, 28 Mar 2013, 6:31pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike (1)     Comment 3

Hard to say MsBennet. Friends that worked there were all telling me to load up on calls during the last two quarterly earnings releases because AAPL was going to show solid revenue growth (thank god I didn't). Well, they did, and the market shat all over AAPL anyway. So, while there does look to be a case for buying puts on AAPL, it's just too damn volatile and high profile to try to make fundamental-based decisions on in the short term. EVERYONE is trying to game it, and while AAPL is a highly profitable company that isn't going out of business anytime soon, trying to cash in on options with it has worse odds than picking a color at the roulette table.

EDIT: I accidentally hit "Dislike" instead of "Edit". LOLZ

clambo   Sun, 8 Jan 2012, 1:26am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 4

I thought the stock market was an auction. Therefore, whether or not Apple makes $50 billion is not important, but rather the herd's expectation that it will make $50 billion.

¥   Mon, 16 Jan 2012, 8:19am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 5

thunderlips11 says

Try working on an excel spreadsheet

Try thinking a bit beyond the 1970s sometime.

EBGuy   Mon, 16 Jan 2012, 9:17am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 6

No way. Try working on an excel spreadsheet all day with a touch keyboard. Even a netbook is easier than a touch screen.
Read my entire post. I said just need to make it easy to add keyboard/monitor. Currently Android based systems seem to have the edge in this area. We already have systems out like the Motorola Lapdock that allow you to turn a smartphone into an ultra portable PC. We'll always have power users that need the horsepower of an Intel iX product, but increasingly, more functions will be good enough on an ARM (quad core Tegras are coming out in consumer tablets this next round). Again, YMMV.

clambo   Thu, 19 Jan 2012, 6:50am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 7

The guys at GE won't all replace their XP boxes but the new hires at GE can choose Apple if they want to according to WSJ article.
I'd take a macbook air 15".

Looks like Apple is going to shove iPads into education/textbooks. Since textbooks today cost $100 and students would rather rent them, I predict this will be an awesome sales development for Apple.
Do slacker students really want to pay $100+ for that textbook for "Underwater Basketweaving"?

TPB   Thu, 19 Jan 2012, 7:08am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 8

I bet tomorrow the corporate Mac and Google fanboys, will be singing a different tune.

Google just tanked 10% on missed earnings.

clambo   Thu, 19 Jan 2012, 8:04am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 9

"tanked" and 10% are not compatible.
Who cares what Apple does tomorrow? The premise here is AAPl goes to $500. Wait and see.

clambo   Sun, 22 Jan 2012, 12:33pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 10

It could be that without Jobs Apple will devolve into simply being like Microsoft, making a gazillion bucks but not doing anything really creative or interesting. Time will tell. Either way, AAPL will be good to own because now it's a juggernaut.

thomas.wong1986   Mon, 23 Jan 2012, 10:11am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 11

clambo says

AAPL will be good to own because now it's a juggernaut

Juggernauts are not dependent on their vendors who provide the chips, storage and other components.

Vicente   Thu, 9 Feb 2012, 2:19am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 12

My question is very close to an affirmative answer now.

clambo   Fri, 10 Feb 2012, 1:13am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 13

They are buying these for business. Whether you believe all and any business model requires Oracle or SAP is your bias.
The marketing by Apple follows the old saw by the guy running Procter and Gamble: "The key to marketing is superior product performance".
The Apple products are moving from consumers to businesses and soon will be everywhere.
Of course people will buy a few of the "other" brands. I have an Andriod phone because my data/text/voice plan is about 1/3 what verizon or att cost.
iPads and similar will also be getting into education bigtime.

thomas.wong1986   Sun, 12 Feb 2012, 1:00pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)     Comment 14

clambo says

Superior product performance=runs UNIX, is more stable and less prone to viruses and spyware than Windows.
The iPhone is not plastic, etc. Macbook air is selling like hotcakes, it's a super product. Etc.

Ipads = Toys... your talking nickels and dimes.

Talk to me when NORAD system, all our communications, nuke missiles and space defense is put on OSX.

clambo   Mon, 13 Feb 2012, 12:02am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 15

I'm sort of baffled by thomas.
The Apple personal computers, laptops, phones, ipods and tablets are the best products in consumer electronics. They sell them by the million.
Apple makes money in other ways, such as distributing music via iTunes.
Apple is branching into government and education markets and this trend will continue.
I also remember that Microsoft produced their shareholder annual report years ago on a Mac.

Peter P   Tue, 4 Dec 2012, 4:49am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 16

1. Stocks prices have little to do with the underlying business.
2. Fundamentals are affect by stock prices as much as the other way around

Pure price action, man. :-)

Nobody   Tue, 15 Jan 2013, 1:53am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 17

It is always cyclical. The Apple stock goes up after the new product is announced. And it takes a dive after. I am always on the short sale after the new product announcement. And buy back later. I have never lost on this position yet. My gain this time is more than 20% in 4 months. I sold it at $700. I bought it back at $500. If it goes down even more, that's unrealized gain. I don't care.

Peter P says

Waiting for a bounce to put on a short. Am I too late?

Just wait til Apple announces a new exciting product like low cost iPhone. I am so sure that market is going to go wild bucking bull. After they blow their wad, you know what happens. Or are you going to buy now and take a chance that Apple is going to announce a new exciting product. Nah, I wait til they do. And I see how the market reacts and short sale.

Apple needs to make a real impressionable product this time. Unfortunately, no amount of investment can develop a talent like Steve Jobs and his visions. The talent is indeed scarce.

Hysteresis   Thu, 17 Jan 2013, 1:09am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 18

with steve's jobs gone so has his reality distortion field gone.

RentingForHalfTheCost   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 8:03am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 19

Now who is going to buy all the run down 1200sqft shacks in Cupertino? We just lots a boat load of greater fools in one quarterly report. Doh

RentingForHalfTheCost   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 3:31am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 20

BoomAndBustCycle says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Now who is going to buy all the run down 1200sqft shacks in Cupertino? We just lots a boat load of greater fools in one quarterly report. Doh

yeah, $13 billion in profits in 12 weeks... Apple is really slacking.. only earning $6.5 MILLION an hour is gonna put them out of business real soon.

How much did Amazon earn in profits last quarter.. how bout Netflix?

Apple as a company is fine. It is just realizing that at 500B (now 400B) market cap, it really suffers like all those before it. Remember when Cisco hit 500B. Same story here.

I was more referring to all the Apple workers that are distorting the real-estate market in Cupertino because of the over-inflated Apple stock. At $700/sh, you can be sure there are more millionaires than at $450/sh. The trouble when people get access to large amounts of money quickly, is they don't respect what it says. Hence, everyone overpays for a sugar shack. Good luck to all the sugar shack owners out there. ;)

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