« previous   misc   next »

AAPL to $500?


By Vicente   Follow   Fri, 6 Jan 2012, 6:16am PST   24,257 views   217 comments   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

Starting my New Year with a nice bump on the AAPL I picked up last year.

Consensus on AAPL to $500? It's testing 52-week high.

« First     « Previous     Comments 98-137 of 217     Next »     Last »

Peter P   befriend   ignore   Tue, 4 Dec 2012, 4:49am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 98

1. Stocks prices have little to do with the underlying business.
2. Fundamentals are affect by stock prices as much as the other way around

Pure price action, man. :-)

AverageBear   befriend   ignore   Wed, 5 Dec 2012, 9:59pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 99

As mostly a long-term investor, I couldn't see myself investing in AAPL back in April '12. At the time, i felt I missed the boat at the beginning of 2012. I'm glad I didn't chase this stock.

I understand the immense success of Apple the last 5 years. I understand the innovation this company has brought to mobile phones and tablets. It's a great company for consumers, but not a great company (long term) for investors. Why? They busted out in the early 80's w/ the MAC, a game-changer that was quickly copied by Microsoft, and eventually commoditized....Apple busted out again recently w/ the iPhone/iPod/iPad and the ecosystem that's ringing the cash register w/ IMMENSE profits. But both product and ecosystem are being copied as we speak. Talk all you want about 'quality product/customer experience', high-end fit/finish, the 'must have/'IN crowd item' appeal. At the end of the day, it's consumer experience can, and is being copied, just like the MAC back in the early 80's. Apple is a great innovator, but it's missing a "dominate trait" for the long haul. It can't seem to dominate like the Wintel juggernaut (SP?) has the past 25 years.

Am I over-simplifying this? Absolutely. Am I interested in what Apple will do w/ his HUGE pile of cash? Yes. Am I going to invest in Apple and wait to see what happens when they put that pile of cash to use? NO..... Just too much risk for me.....My tech investment dollars are going to Intel at these great prices, because nobody (as of now) can copy their product. it's a 'best of breed' company w/ a real moat that Apple doesn't have. Yes, they are late to the mobile party, but I think we're in the 2nd inning, so to speak. I'll get growing dividend payments (think yield on cost) while I wait... I'm not an Apple hater. I love my iPhone 4s. For me, I just can't invest in this company. I wish those that do, all the best....

JohnLaw   befriend   ignore   Thu, 6 Dec 2012, 9:44pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 100

Apple is basically a consumer products company in a market segment with the most fickle of tastes. One miss-step or even if they just get a little lazy or behind and Samsung or some other competitor takes 50% of their market share in 90 days. I've already seen Apple rise and fall once in my lifetime. I've seen Nokia and Motorola rise and fall. Apple is not a solid investment iMHO. There are sharks constantly circling it.

Mr Happygoluckofus   befriend   ignore   Thu, 6 Dec 2012, 10:22pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 101

JohnLaw says

One miss-step or even if they just get a little lazy or behind

In this case it was more like "the brains behind the operation died".
Samsung is the new Dell and Sony wrapped in one. This is purely Dell and Sony's fault. The last 5 years both of their products have gotten crappier and shittier. I don't think I've been to a best buy since Windows 7 came out, that didn't have a Sony Lap top that didn't have several keys missing.
Sony used to be the Moniker of quality electronics. And Dells used to be solid dependable Laptops. Their offerings for the last several years have been crap. Made from plastic so cheap and flimsy the case flexes and gives when you grab the laptop and place it on your lap.
Samsung makes a solid dependable product, and their touch pad is more innovative than anything on Sony or Dell.
And their smart phones seem to get better mileage than HTC or LG.

clambo   befriend   ignore   Wed, 12 Dec 2012, 10:19am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 102

The title of this thread should be how soon Apple is $1000/share.
The only limit to Apple's profits is the growth of the working population of the world. Presently, I think it's about 20 million new working people per year.
It's pretty amazing. Their success is they do not make any crappy junk, Jobs would not tolerate it.
Their website is great, their stores are great, their customer service is great, their products are great, their brand is great, even their various software is great. Their ads are great also come to think of it.

Peter P   befriend   ignore   Wed, 12 Dec 2012, 10:32am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 103

Price action is 100% psychology in the short term.

In the long run, asset pricing and fundamentals are reflexive.

Why would anyone invests uding fundamental data alone?

Peter P   befriend   ignore   Wed, 12 Dec 2012, 10:33am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 104

clambo says

The title of this thread should be how soon Apple is $1000/share.

The only limit to Apple's profits is the growth of the working population of the world. Presently, I think it's about 20 million new working people per year.

It's pretty amazing. Their success is they do not make any crappy junk, Jobs would not tolerate it.

Their website is great, their stores are great, their customer service is great, their products are great, their brand is great, even their various software is great. Their ads are great also come to think of it.

The market knows this at yhe current price. What is new?

Who cares about the company? It is a time series.

zzyzzx   befriend   ignore   Thu, 13 Dec 2012, 12:05pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 105

Down to $529.69/sh
Anyone remember what it was the day this thread started? Wasn't it $422/sh?

52 week high is 705.07

zzyzzx   befriend   ignore   Fri, 14 Dec 2012, 5:19am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 106

Down to 509.00 as of today.

zzyzzx   befriend   ignore   Fri, 14 Dec 2012, 5:20am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 107

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/apple-shares-could-dip-below-170100918.html

Apple Shares Could Dip Below $500

bmwman91   befriend   ignore   Fri, 14 Dec 2012, 5:50am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 108

This is either the buying opportunity of a lifetime, or a major paradigm shift for Apple.

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Fri, 14 Dec 2012, 5:54am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 109

$480B market cap.

$200B in assets at the close of this quarter.

2% dividend yield currently.

wish I hadn't sold at $12.50, sigh.

Bellingham Bill   befriend   ignore   Fri, 14 Dec 2012, 5:57am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 110

I did see a graph that scared me a bit, as an Apple developer:

I've seen this movie before, back in the 1990s.

Peter P   befriend   ignore   Fri, 14 Dec 2012, 2:29pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 111

Another thing to consider, the knowledge of Apple's future growth has been baked into the price. What new information will cause the stock price to go up? A smaller iPhone? A bigger iPhone? A smaller AND bigger iPhone?

Other than that, it is all psychological.

Peter P   befriend   ignore   Fri, 14 Dec 2012, 2:30pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 112

chanakya4773 says

In my view, Apple's only competitive moat was steve jobs because you cannot just buy Vision in the market.

And I remember him as a sushi eater.

I saw him several times in different sushi restaurants. That we have in common.

Vision is reflexive. Did Steve Jobs create the vision? Or did people call something a vision because it came from Steve Jobs? Or was it a feedback loop?

When will people start associate missteps to the beginning of the downfall? It is a nonlinear system.

It has nothing to do with technology or vision.

Peter P   befriend   ignore   Fri, 14 Dec 2012, 3:28pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 113

chanakya4773 says

The ability to visualize a product as being important and valuable for customers is the "vision" i am talking about.Even customers didn't agree that they will like Ipad until they started using them..now thats called vision.

Yes, but then how many more customers "like" the product only because other people like it? A trend is a feedback loop.

The Apple Newton was even more "visionary." Yet it was a flop.

Peter P   befriend   ignore   Fri, 14 Dec 2012, 3:53pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 114

chanakya4773 says

Try using Ipad for some time and see if serves a purpose for certain people and get back to me.

We have had several. We got two soon after the original launch.

Don't get me wrong, it is nice. But "vision" is really a crowd psychology thing.

chanakya4773 says

apple newton was visionary but the end product didn't meet the vision.

But whether is was visionary could only be determined after the fact. If it were successful it would have been called a "vision."

Peter P   befriend   ignore   Fri, 14 Dec 2012, 3:55pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 115

Another thing...

Can one count on having new visions time after time?

Good companies sell good products. Great companies sell crap.

Peter P   befriend   ignore   Fri, 14 Dec 2012, 4:55pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 116

chanakya4773 says

A person who "consistently" comes with new products which sell like hot cakes and are way ahead of the competition is visionary...period.

It was a self-reinforcing trend. And that person is no longer with us. What is the future of that trend?

Peter P   befriend   ignore   Fri, 14 Dec 2012, 5:06pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 117

chanakya4773 says

Thats the whole point. since that person is no longer there, the future is bleak.

We will see. I am NOT an Apple fan, yet we have pretty much iEverything. ;-)

zzyzzx   befriend   ignore   Thu, 3 Jan 2013, 12:32am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 118

zzyzzx   befriend   ignore   Tue, 15 Jan 2013, 1:32am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 119

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-index-futures-signal-lower-100247769.html

Apple (AAPL) fell for the third day in a row as the biggest drag on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after reports on Monday of cuts to orders for iPhone parts. Apple was down nearly 3 percent at $487.50 after hitting a session low of $485.60, its lowest level since February.

Peter P   befriend   ignore   Tue, 15 Jan 2013, 1:38am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 120

Waiting for a bounce to put on a short. Am I too late?

Nobody   befriend   ignore   Tue, 15 Jan 2013, 1:53am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 121

It is always cyclical. The Apple stock goes up after the new product is announced. And it takes a dive after. I am always on the short sale after the new product announcement. And buy back later. I have never lost on this position yet. My gain this time is more than 20% in 4 months. I sold it at $700. I bought it back at $500. If it goes down even more, that's unrealized gain. I don't care.

Peter P says

Waiting for a bounce to put on a short. Am I too late?

Just wait til Apple announces a new exciting product like low cost iPhone. I am so sure that market is going to go wild bucking bull. After they blow their wad, you know what happens. Or are you going to buy now and take a chance that Apple is going to announce a new exciting product. Nah, I wait til they do. And I see how the market reacts and short sale.

Apple needs to make a real impressionable product this time. Unfortunately, no amount of investment can develop a talent like Steve Jobs and his visions. The talent is indeed scarce.

zzyzzx   befriend   ignore   Tue, 15 Jan 2013, 10:11pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 122

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/apple-could-fall-350-more-likely-bear-trap-134137707.html

Apple Could Fall to $350

Looking forward, the money manager and blogger says Apple could fall to as low as $350 based strictly on technical indicators.

Hysteresis   befriend   ignore   Thu, 17 Jan 2013, 1:09am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 123

with steve's jobs gone so has his reality distortion field gone.

curious2   befriend   ignore   Thu, 17 Jan 2013, 2:46am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 124

Nobody says

The Apple stock goes up after the new product is announced. And it takes a dive after.

Their latest new "product" appears to be an installment plan in China:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-16/apple-lets-buyers-on-china-website-pay-in-two-year-installments.html

The share price jumped significantly on the news, but has begun settling back.

I remember when Nokia was the big star, then Motorola. Mass producing tech companies can achieve huge economies of scale for a while, but the party tends to move on eventually, to somewhere else.

thunderlips11   befriend   ignore   Fri, 18 Jan 2013, 9:41am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 125

Hysteresis says

with steve's jobs gone so has his reality distortion field gone.

This.

bmwman91   befriend   ignore   Sat, 19 Jan 2013, 8:46am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 126

zzyzzx says

Oh fuck, I LOL'ed.

Earnings are are coming up right quick. Anyone making bets? My gut tells me to lay down some Feb 10 calls at $530. The iPhone 5 and iPad Mini sold like heroin-infused hotcakes over the holiday season. For some reason, I expect record earnings as a result. Now, last quarter they announced record earnings and the stock tanked because investors wanted "RECORD record earnings" but I think that the market overreacted. When Apple reports solid growth this quarter, there may be a mad rush back in, and I expect AAPL to close over $600 in the next month.

I am not a financial adviser and this is not investing advice. Rather, it is wild speculation that is probably about as useful as telling you to go put all of your money down on red. It's the internet, where bullshit is FUN!

thunderlips11   befriend   ignore   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 6:15am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 127

Yep, it was only a matter of time, especially when you consider direct Apple Competitors make crucial iPhone components, like Samsung.

RentingForHalfTheCost   befriend   ignore   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 8:03am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 128

Now who is going to buy all the run down 1200sqft shacks in Cupertino? We just lots a boat load of greater fools in one quarterly report. Doh

BoomAndBustCycle   befriend