Starting my New Year with a nice bump on the AAPL I picked up last year.
Consensus on AAPL to $500? It's testing 52-week high.
AAPL to $500?
By Vicente Follow Fri, 6 Jan 2012, 2:16pm 14,747 views 224 comments
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BoomAndBustCycle says
Apple as a company is fine. It is just realizing that at 500B (now 400B) market cap, it really suffers like all those before it. Remember when Cisco hit 500B. Same story here.
I was more referring to all the Apple workers that are distorting the real-estate market in Cupertino because of the over-inflated Apple stock. At $700/sh, you can be sure there are more millionaires than at $450/sh. The trouble when people get access to large amounts of money quickly, is they don't respect what it says. Hence, everyone overpays for a sugar shack. Good luck to all the sugar shack owners out there. ;)
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Apple only employs about 30000 people in Cupertino. Most don't live there. They don't exist in a vacuum.
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AT&T has released its holiday quarter earnings data, reporting that it sold a record 10.2 million smartphones -- 8.6 million of those (84%) being iPhones. AT&T reported earlier this month that the quarter was its best ever for iPhone sales. 16% of the iPhones were on accounts new to the company.
During the same holiday quarter, Verizon activated 6.2 million iPhones, some two-thirds of its total smartphone sale. AT&T's previous best quarter was 2011's fourth quarter, when it activated a total of 9.4 million smartphones and 7.6 million iPhones -- an 80% share for the Apple device.
On Twitter, Apple watcher Sammy the Walrus calculated that 74% of smartphones sold by AT&T and Verizon were iPhones, giving the device an "iPod-like share".
***
So on the two largest telcos in the U.S... 74% of all phones sold are IPHONES.. and Wall Street panic sells?
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BoomAndBustCycle says
They might be worried about the history of Nokia repeating itself. Trees don't grow to the sky. OTOH, if I had to bet on AAPL (P/E=10) or FB (PE=289), I'd bet AAPL.
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Kevin says
I never said they did. What I was insinuating was that Apple's stock has given many employees the ability to pay double or more than they should for a sugar shack in Cupertino. With this latest drop you can be sure the real estate market will suffer in that area. Back to reality sucks.
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After Hours : 448.53 1.97 (0.44%) 7:46PM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Pric
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/samsung-posts-record-profit-000031770.html
Samsung posts record profit; will not reduce spending
SEOUL (Reuters) - Samsung Electronics Co reported a record quarterly profit of $8.3 billion and kept its 2013 investment plans at the previous year's level, defying expectations that it may reduce spending amid weaker demand for computer chips.
The South Korean firm said October-December operating profit increased 89 percent from a year ago to 8.84 trillion korean won ($8.3 billion), in line with its earlier estimate.
In a statement on Friday, Samsung said it would keep 2013 investment at a similar level to 2012, despite a bleak PC outlook and a move by rival Apple Inc to diversify its supplier base.
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BoomAndBustCycle says
If only the two largest US carriers were the entire smartphone market. Or even the entire US market. Or even the majority of the US market...
Investors are making bets. They're betting that Apple's growth isn't sustainable. It's pretty simple, actually.
RentingForHalfTheCost says
Kinda depends on where the investors take their money. Most of what has been taken out of Apple has been added to Google, Facebook, and other tech companies.
Apple isn't the only game in town, or even the largest employer. Rank and file employees don't get enough RSUs to be buying million dollar houses. The overall impact will be insignificant, just like the uptick from the round of IPOs over the last couple years was insignificant.
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Kevin says
it is the majority of the US market...
Verizon 31.3% and AT&T 26.6%... In what Universe is 58% not a majority?
Sprint is desperate to sell IPHONES because they bought so many up front from Apple. They sold 1.8 million last quarter...
Once Apple FINALLY cuts a deal with China Mobile.. The stock will pop 40-50 a share the day of the announcement.. or in the lead up to the imminent announcement.
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Kevin says
Android phones are far and away the dominant phone OS.
http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2012/11/01/android-grabs-75-0-market-share-in-q3-followed-by-14-9-for-ios-and-4-3-for-blackberry/
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BoomAndBustCycle says
Why would China Mobile agree to overpay for a phone that they know perfectly well any 10-year-old can make?
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thunderlips11 says
So which is it.. Android is too big to grow anymore? Or Apple is too big to grow anymore.. these numbers all contradict.
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curious2 says
Apple only needs to get the same deal that Samsung Galaxy has over at China Mobile... If they are both subsidized equally you can let the consumers decide... if Apple's IPHONE is worth a little extra cash.
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439.88/sh -10.62(2.36%) 4:00PM
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BoomAndBustCycle says
Those are percentages of post paid (contract) customers. Posy paid is only half of the market.
Quick, what's 58% of half of the market?
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Kevin says
Apple is priced as if it will only experience 2% year over year growth forever... I'd be first to agree $700 a share Apple was risky in the short term.. and deserved a pullback.
But it's current price is definitely blood in the streets fear-driven and overselling.
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BoomAndBustCycle says
Perhaps. The question is, what happens next? If you believe that Apple's fundamentals and future are sound, and that investors are just being short sighted and will eventually come around, by all means buy.
Just remember that there are plenty of companies doing very well that have had a stagnant stock price for a very long time.
I don't buy individual stocks unless they pay a dividend for just this reason. You're betting on perception.
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Holy shit am I glad that I am too much of a pussy to actually gamble on options. My friend that gave me that "hot tip" is going to get razzed next time we go grab beers!
Apple is not going anywhere. They are a long way off from becoming Microsoft per Kevin's earlier description, which sadly bears quite a bit of truth. Even if they did...well, MSFT is still alive. They (AAPL) make high quality hardware and their corporate culture still attracts top type-A talent, which will probably mean that they continue churning out top quality stuff. Popular sentiment toward them is shifting a little, but they still have legions of die-hard fans and brand-whore minions. Their margins are unreal for high volume consumer gadgetry, so if they ever did need to engage in a pricing battle, they have a LOT of room. I have no idea where their stock price is going, but they will remain highly profitable for quite some time I am sure.
It does seem that their stock price was blown up on expectations of unsustainable growth levels, even with their super conservative P/E. Maybe the price will keep going down, maybe it will go way up, maybe it will level off. It is hard to say since it is dependent on fickle consumer behavior and reactionary retail investors. Either way, I see Apple being consistently profitable for the near- to mid-term future.
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$437.64/sh Down 2.24 (0.51%) 9:16AM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price
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Long AAPL @ $455. The P/E is 10 and dividend yield is over 2.3%.
The Cash value is $150 a share for Christ's sake.
What's going to happen, the P/E is going to 8?
Or 5?
Find any company with a cash value 35% of it share price that has a P/E of 10.
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iPhone losing luster in Asia's trend-setting cities
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2013/1/28/business/20130128080557&sec=business
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Here's a really interesting article about what Apple does with its CASH MONEYS...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-27/600-billion-trades-four-years-how-apple-puts-even-most-aggressive-hedge-funds-shame
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david1 says
The Cash value is $150 a share for Christ's sake.
No it's not. Read the article above.
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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/anlaysis-funds-saw-apples-decline-174717417.html
Analysis: The funds that saw Apple's decline coming
Whether it was a case of simple risk management, concerns that the company's share price had peaked, or a bit of luck, fund managers who drained Apple from their portfolios helped drive down the price of the stock. As a result of their early shift in sentiment, they appear quite prescient now.
Denver-based fund manager Tom Marsico sold his firm's entire stake in the company between November and January - most of it in November before things got really ugly. At about $2 billion of the firm's $31 billion in assets under management, the Apple stake made up between 6 to 8 percent of the domestic portfolios at the time he began selling.
His concern: that the company had saturated the market with its products so much that there was "no one left to sell to."
Marsico, the Denver-based manager, began selling his position in the company when it traded at around $650 per share out of concern that its years of phenomenal growth were over.
"We didn't see another major category that would provide the opportunity that the iPhone has had for the company," he said.
The company's strong lineup of current products didn't entice him to stay invested. "They've talked about the fact that they have the best products they've ever had. But I remember you could say the same thing about Sony 20 years ago," he said.
Some managers trimmed their overweight positions, but were held back from selling more because of the company's massive pile of cash. Daniel Rosenblatt, a portfolio manager of the $639 million Neuberger Berman Large Cap Disciplined Growth fund, began trimming his position in Apple by approximately 10 percent, from 8.1 percent of assets to 7.2 percent of assets, as the company approached its high. The company, which had been among the fund's largest positions since 2004, was "clearly in a deceleration mode", Rosenblatt said.
He was most troubled by surveys that showed that even die-hard Apple fans were more open to using rivals' products. "When a product loses a certain amount of cool, its pricing power falls," he said. Yet he won't short the stock or sell more because the company's large cash position, which makes up about a third of its market value, "could change the dynamics of the stock price overnight" via a big buy-back or acquisition, he said.
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bmwman91's website
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So, there's a potential game-changer coming for AAPL stock prices. Greenlight Capital is filing a suit against Apple for not doing enough to pump its share price, and apparently Apple is considering letting shareholders vote themselves into juicy shares of dividend-paying preferred stock. What will happen next is anyone's guess. Basically, they are under fire now to pump the shit out of their stock to appease shareholders, more so then ever. Time to make some popcorn...
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Where there's smoke, there is fire. Apple is indeed working on iWatch.
* The key would be a curved touchscreen glass, without it, the design would not work. If it works, iWatch for sure as you can definitely make the design work. The other key is low power bluetooth.
* And why would it makes sense. It would enhance the Iphone line from competitors. The hardware itself would not cannabalize their own sales and create yet again a new category. There's 200M iphones out in the wild per year, if they can penetrate at 25%, that's 50M units a year at $229, it is a game changer.
* People already spend billions on designer watch such as Rolex, Cartier, Tag. Apple would eat into their business as well as create new business. Furthermore, it would reverse Androids market gain and that would propel Apple in the short term innovator.
* It would enhance the function of SIRI. It was always silly to talk on the phone and ask for say a direction, restaurants or appointments. Do it over a watch and get reminders that way and it feels more natural.
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treatmentreport's website
The biggest wildcard is the compression of margins. I just bought an iPad mini and Google Nexus 7. For many people it's becoming harder to justify to pay for a bigger iPad with more memory when you can get pretty much the same thing cheaper.
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AAPL down to $431.67/sh
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The stock may be due for a bounce soon, but after that don't be surprise to see the stock reaching close to $200/share within a year's time or so.
I loved what Jobs did, but the stock is broken after what the hedge funds did to it in 2012 above the 460+ island ramp job to $700.
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People spend billions on watches because a $10000 watch is a high end piece of jewelry. A $200-300 watch will never fit that category. You can't brag about the techie equivalent of a Timex.
Smart watches could be interesting, but it'll take a really killer app to make them shine.
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bmwman91's website
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http://getpebble.com/
Honest to god, this is a vastly superior product to what it sounds like Apple is making. Who the FUCK wants to charge their goddamn watch every day?! Surf the web on a 1" screen? Riiiiight. I am not saying that there won't be some amazing technology baked into an incredibly small package by Apple's iWatch, but it seems like a completely impractical gimmick.
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I was thinking about a month ago while driving down the freeway, what is Apple going to come up with next. First was the iPad, then the mini, and I thought what next. A computer watch?
I swear to God. It's true.
At that same time my next thought was the watch could project the display on a flat surface to enlarge it. Now, that will be weird if it comes true. You heard it here first. You are all my witnesses.
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MsBennet says
I'm pretty sure I have seen stuff like this on TV, maybe sci-fi, but I am not sure. Would then see people watching their porn on walls in public places then.
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Baltimore, MD
Down to $422.91/sh
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Nampa, ID
Going to 350/sh (odds?)
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Testing. BlackBerry z10 @ att store. Does not stand out.
This thing will flop. Too little too late. Even blackberry users will not like this.
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bmwman91 says
I have to agree, I can not think of a scenario where I would buy a "smart watch".
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evilmonkeyboy says
If the watch can project an image onto a wall for you to see, then maybe, but then other people would be hanging around to watch your porn.
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evilmonkeyboy says
not some clunky-ass block of metal, no.
But back in the 1980s I had this really cool Armitron digital watch:
the cool thing about it was that it was REALLY thin, not much thicker than the band.
I'd love to have a smartwatch that talked to my other iOS and OS X devices via bluetooth.
My bud has a Leaf and its key fob is pretty cool (just put the fob in your pocket and you don't need a key for the car), I could see the watch getting that functionality too.
If I were to design the smartwatch, it'd be about as small and thin as possible, so I don't see a platform for 3rd party apps all that much, since the display would be too small for touch input.
Shouldn't cost too much, either.
One thing Apple could do is move the watch industry beyond 7 seg LCD technology, LOL
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven-segment_display
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robertoaribas's website
if the watch replaced my phone maybe... i could just always talk on a bluetooth device. play music through it, etc...