AAPL to $500?


By Vicente   Follow   Fri, 6 Jan 2012, 2:16pm   19,346 views   217 comments
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Starting my New Year with a nice bump on the AAPL I picked up last year.

Consensus on AAPL to $500? It's testing 52-week high.

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  1. zzyzzx


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    138   6:47am Thu 24 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    452.33/sh Down 61.68(12.00%) 9:43AM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price

  2. thunderlips11


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    139   10:34am Thu 24 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    SFace says

    I don't think it has anything to do with components as Apple can outsource that plus these arrangements are long term that benefits both sides.

    They already outsource: iPhone chips are made by Samsung. There is no ready substitute if Samsung has issues, or decides to prioritize their Galaxies over supply Apple.

    Many components of the iPhone are other companies' proprietary IP and not readily substituted.

    SFace says

    The must have Apple is now nice to have. Also, with a closer replacement cycle, I think consumers stopped buying the most expensive ripoff version of the Ipad/Iphone (32GB vs. 16GB anyone) which are all profits.

    Yes, right on.SFace says

    Apple may have topped out at 40B - 50B in earnings. I don't how much more Iphone/Ipad they can sell in the future and not eat into their owns sales/profits. Consumers are already not buying as many macs and Ipods.

    Really, the worst factor is finding another hit. I don't know where's the next ipod, next Iphone, next Ipad is.

    I agree. How many more rabbits can they pull out of a hat? They had some big hits in a short time, but can they keep it up? It's hard to keep topping yourself when you're at the top of the heap.

  3. thunderlips11


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    140   11:28am Thu 24 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    SFace says

    Apple designed the A5 or whatever, Samsung Manufactures them. When you go into a contract to manufacturer chips, they are structured long term with tremendous exit costs with cost certainity. In the case of Apple and Samsung, probably in the billions.

    Apple did NOT design the entire A4 or A5. The architecture of the 'system on a chip' is licensed from ARM Holdings. The Design of the chip itself is a collaberation with Samsung, based on requirements by Apple; additional functionalities are licensed from other firms like Audience.

    The A6 is the first chip by Apple where Samsung didn't play a development role.

    This is really telling, because Apple is starting to turn away from Samsung and stop letting it's #1 competitor make it's chips. This is an indicator that there is either margin pressure or some other force at work making Apple move away to other manufacturers.

  4. RentingForHalfTheCost


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    141   11:31am Thu 24 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    BoomAndBustCycle says

    RentingForHalfTheCost says

    Now who is going to buy all the run down 1200sqft shacks in Cupertino? We just lots a boat load of greater fools in one quarterly report. Doh

    yeah, $13 billion in profits in 12 weeks... Apple is really slacking.. only earning $6.5 MILLION an hour is gonna put them out of business real soon.

    How much did Amazon earn in profits last quarter.. how bout Netflix?

    Apple as a company is fine. It is just realizing that at 500B (now 400B) market cap, it really suffers like all those before it. Remember when Cisco hit 500B. Same story here.

    I was more referring to all the Apple workers that are distorting the real-estate market in Cupertino because of the over-inflated Apple stock. At $700/sh, you can be sure there are more millionaires than at $450/sh. The trouble when people get access to large amounts of money quickly, is they don't respect what it says. Hence, everyone overpays for a sugar shack. Good luck to all the sugar shack owners out there. ;)

  5. Kevin


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    142   2:36pm Thu 24 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Apple only employs about 30000 people in Cupertino. Most don't live there. They don't exist in a vacuum.

  6. BoomAndBustCycle


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    143   2:37pm Thu 24 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    AT&T has released its holiday quarter earnings data, reporting that it sold a record 10.2 million smartphones -- 8.6 million of those (84%) being iPhones. AT&T reported earlier this month that the quarter was its best ever for iPhone sales. 16% of the iPhones were on accounts new to the company.

    During the same holiday quarter, Verizon activated 6.2 million iPhones, some two-thirds of its total smartphone sale. AT&T's previous best quarter was 2011's fourth quarter, when it activated a total of 9.4 million smartphones and 7.6 million iPhones -- an 80% share for the Apple device.

    On Twitter, Apple watcher Sammy the Walrus calculated that 74% of smartphones sold by AT&T and Verizon were iPhones, giving the device an "iPod-like share".
    ***

    So on the two largest telcos in the U.S... 74% of all phones sold are IPHONES.. and Wall Street panic sells?

  7. curious2


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    144   3:04pm Thu 24 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    BoomAndBustCycle says

    So on the two largest telcos in the U.S... 74% of all phones sold are IPHONES.. and Wall Street panic sells?

    They might be worried about the history of Nokia repeating itself. Trees don't grow to the sky. OTOH, if I had to bet on AAPL (P/E=10) or FB (PE=289), I'd bet AAPL.

  8. RentingForHalfTheCost


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    145   4:26pm Thu 24 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Kevin says

    Apple only employs about 30000 people in Cupertino. Most don't live there. They don't exist in a vacuum.

    I never said they did. What I was insinuating was that Apple's stock has given many employees the ability to pay double or more than they should for a sugar shack in Cupertino. With this latest drop you can be sure the real estate market will suffer in that area. Back to reality sucks.

  9. zzyzzx


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    146   4:52pm Thu 24 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    After Hours : 448.53 1.97 (0.44%) 7:46PM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Pric

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/samsung-posts-record-profit-000031770.html

    Samsung posts record profit; will not reduce spending

    SEOUL (Reuters) - Samsung Electronics Co reported a record quarterly profit of $8.3 billion and kept its 2013 investment plans at the previous year's level, defying expectations that it may reduce spending amid weaker demand for computer chips.

    The South Korean firm said October-December operating profit increased 89 percent from a year ago to 8.84 trillion korean won ($8.3 billion), in line with its earlier estimate.

    In a statement on Friday, Samsung said it would keep 2013 investment at a similar level to 2012, despite a bleak PC outlook and a move by rival Apple Inc to diversify its supplier base.

  10. Kevin


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    147   10:37pm Thu 24 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    BoomAndBustCycle says

    So on the two largest telcos in the U.S... 74% of all phones sold are IPHONES.. and Wall Street panic sells?

    If only the two largest US carriers were the entire smartphone market. Or even the entire US market. Or even the majority of the US market...

    Investors are making bets. They're betting that Apple's growth isn't sustainable. It's pretty simple, actually.

    RentingForHalfTheCost says

    Kevin says

    Apple only employs about 30000 people in Cupertino. Most don't live there. They don't exist in a vacuum.

    I never said they did. What I was insinuating was that Apple's stock has given many employees the ability to pay double or more than they should for a sugar shack in Cupertino. With this latest drop you can be sure the real estate market will suffer in that area. Back to reality sucks.

    Kinda depends on where the investors take their money. Most of what has been taken out of Apple has been added to Google, Facebook, and other tech companies.

    Apple isn't the only game in town, or even the largest employer. Rank and file employees don't get enough RSUs to be buying million dollar houses. The overall impact will be insignificant, just like the uptick from the round of IPOs over the last couple years was insignificant.

  11. BoomAndBustCycle


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    148   11:54am Fri 25 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Kevin says

    If only the two largest US carriers were the entire smartphone market. Or even the entire US market. Or even the majority of the US market...

    Investors are making bets. They're betting that Apple's growth isn't sustainable. It's pretty simple, actually.

    it is the majority of the US market...

    Verizon 31.3% and AT&T 26.6%... In what Universe is 58% not a majority?

    Sprint is desperate to sell IPHONES because they bought so many up front from Apple. They sold 1.8 million last quarter...

    Once Apple FINALLY cuts a deal with China Mobile.. The stock will pop 40-50 a share the day of the announcement.. or in the lead up to the imminent announcement.

  12. thunderlips11


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    149   12:05pm Fri 25 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Kevin says

    BoomAndBustCycle says

    So on the two largest telcos in the U.S... 74% of all phones sold are IPHONES.. and Wall Street panic sells?

    If only the two largest US carriers were the entire smartphone market. Or even the entire US market. Or even the majority of the US market...

    Investors are making bets. They're betting that Apple's growth isn't sustainable. It's pretty simple, actually.

    Android phones are far and away the dominant phone OS.

    http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2012/11/01/android-grabs-75-0-market-share-in-q3-followed-by-14-9-for-ios-and-4-3-for-blackberry/

  13. curious2


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    150   12:07pm Fri 25 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    BoomAndBustCycle says

    Once Apple FINALLY cuts a deal with China Mobile.

    Why would China Mobile agree to overpay for a phone that they know perfectly well any 10-year-old can make?

  14. BoomAndBustCycle


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    151   1:09pm Fri 25 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    thunderlips11 says

    Android phones are far and away the dominant phone OS.

    http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2012/11/01/android-grabs-75-0-market-share-in-q3-followed-by-14-9-for-ios-and-4-3-for-blackberry/

    So which is it.. Android is too big to grow anymore? Or Apple is too big to grow anymore.. these numbers all contradict.

  15. BoomAndBustCycle


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    152   1:10pm Fri 25 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    curious2 says

    Why would China Mobile agree to overpay for a phone that they know perfectly well any 10-year-old can make?

    Apple only needs to get the same deal that Samsung Galaxy has over at China Mobile... If they are both subsidized equally you can let the consumers decide... if Apple's IPHONE is worth a little extra cash.

  16. zzyzzx


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    153   5:29pm Fri 25 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    439.88/sh -10.62(2.36%) 4:00PM

  17. Kevin


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    154   6:15pm Fri 25 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    BoomAndBustCycle says

    Kevin says

    If only the two largest US carriers were the entire smartphone market. Or even the entire US market. Or even the majority of the US market...

    Investors are making bets. They're betting that Apple's growth isn't sustainable. It's pretty simple, actually.

    it is the majority of the US market...

    Verizon 31.3% and AT&T 26.6%... In what Universe is 58% not a majority?

    Sprint is desperate to sell IPHONES because they bought so many up front from Apple. They sold 1.8 million last quarter...

    Once Apple FINALLY cuts a deal with China Mobile.. The stock will pop 40-50 a share the day of the announcement.. or in the lead up to the imminent announcement.

    Those are percentages of post paid (contract) customers. Posy paid is only half of the market.

    Quick, what's 58% of half of the market?

  18. BoomAndBustCycle


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    155   5:33pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Kevin says

    Those are percentages of post paid (contract) customers. Posy paid is only half of the market.

    Quick, what's 58% of half of the market?

    Apple is priced as if it will only experience 2% year over year growth forever... I'd be first to agree $700 a share Apple was risky in the short term.. and deserved a pullback.

    But it's current price is definitely blood in the streets fear-driven and overselling.

  19. Kevin


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    156   12:31am Sun 27 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    BoomAndBustCycle says

    Kevin says

    Those are percentages of post paid (contract) customers. Posy paid is only half of the market.

    Quick, what's 58% of half of the market?

    Apple is priced as if it will only experience 2% year over year growth forever... I'd be first to agree $700 a share Apple was risky in the short term.. and deserved a pullback.

    But it's current price is definitely blood in the streets fear-driven and overselling.

    Perhaps. The question is, what happens next? If you believe that Apple's fundamentals and future are sound, and that investors are just being short sighted and will eventually come around, by all means buy.

    Just remember that there are plenty of companies doing very well that have had a stagnant stock price for a very long time.

    I don't buy individual stocks unless they pay a dividend for just this reason. You're betting on perception.

  20. bmwman91


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    157   4:33am Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Holy shit am I glad that I am too much of a pussy to actually gamble on options. My friend that gave me that "hot tip" is going to get razzed next time we go grab beers!

    Apple is not going anywhere. They are a long way off from becoming Microsoft per Kevin's earlier description, which sadly bears quite a bit of truth. Even if they did...well, MSFT is still alive. They (AAPL) make high quality hardware and their corporate culture still attracts top type-A talent, which will probably mean that they continue churning out top quality stuff. Popular sentiment toward them is shifting a little, but they still have legions of die-hard fans and brand-whore minions. Their margins are unreal for high volume consumer gadgetry, so if they ever did need to engage in a pricing battle, they have a LOT of room. I have no idea where their stock price is going, but they will remain highly profitable for quite some time I am sure.

    It does seem that their stock price was blown up on expectations of unsustainable growth levels, even with their super conservative P/E. Maybe the price will keep going down, maybe it will go way up, maybe it will level off. It is hard to say since it is dependent on fickle consumer behavior and reactionary retail investors. Either way, I see Apple being consistently profitable for the near- to mid-term future.

  21. zzyzzx


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    158   6:21am Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    $437.64/sh Down 2.24 (0.51%) 9:16AM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price

  22. david1


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    159   6:36am Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Long AAPL @ $455. The P/E is 10 and dividend yield is over 2.3%.

    The Cash value is $150 a share for Christ's sake.

    What's going to happen, the P/E is going to 8?

    Or 5?

    Find any company with a cash value 35% of it share price that has a P/E of 10.

  23. CaptainShuddup


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    160   7:43am Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    iPhone losing luster in Asia's trend-setting cities

    http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2013/1/28/business/20130128080557&sec=business

    In Hong Kong, devices running Apple's iOS now account for about 30 percent of the total, down from about 45 percent a year ago. Android accounts for nearly two-thirds.

  24. Facebooksux


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    161   8:29am Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  
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    162   8:30am Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    david1 says

    The Cash value is $150 a share for Christ's sake.

    No it's not. Read the article above.

  26. zzyzzx


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    163   8:31am Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/anlaysis-funds-saw-apples-decline-174717417.html

    Analysis: The funds that saw Apple's decline coming

    Whether it was a case of simple risk management, concerns that the company's share price had peaked, or a bit of luck, fund managers who drained Apple from their portfolios helped drive down the price of the stock. As a result of their early shift in sentiment, they appear quite prescient now.

    Denver-based fund manager Tom Marsico sold his firm's entire stake in the company between November and January - most of it in November before things got really ugly. At about $2 billion of the firm's $31 billion in assets under management, the Apple stake made up between 6 to 8 percent of the domestic portfolios at the time he began selling.

    His concern: that the company had saturated the market with its products so much that there was "no one left to sell to."

    Marsico, the Denver-based manager, began selling his position in the company when it traded at around $650 per share out of concern that its years of phenomenal growth were over.

    "We didn't see another major category that would provide the opportunity that the iPhone has had for the company," he said.

    The company's strong lineup of current products didn't entice him to stay invested. "They've talked about the fact that they have the best products they've ever had. But I remember you could say the same thing about Sony 20 years ago," he said.

    Some managers trimmed their overweight positions, but were held back from selling more because of the company's massive pile of cash. Daniel Rosenblatt, a portfolio manager of the $639 million Neuberger Berman Large Cap Disciplined Growth fund, began trimming his position in Apple by approximately 10 percent, from 8.1 percent of assets to 7.2 percent of assets, as the company approached its high. The company, which had been among the fund's largest positions since 2004, was "clearly in a deceleration mode", Rosenblatt said.

    He was most troubled by surveys that showed that even die-hard Apple fans were more open to using rivals' products. "When a product loses a certain amount of cool, its pricing power falls," he said. Yet he won't short the stock or sell more because the company's large cash position, which makes up about a third of its market value, "could change the dynamics of the stock price overnight" via a big buy-back or acquisition, he said.

  27. bmwman91


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    164   2:03pm Thu 7 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    So, there's a potential game-changer coming for AAPL stock prices. Greenlight Capital is filing a suit against Apple for not doing enough to pump its share price, and apparently Apple is considering letting shareholders vote themselves into juicy shares of dividend-paying preferred stock. What will happen next is anyone's guess. Basically, they are under fire now to pump the shit out of their stock to appease shareholders, more so then ever. Time to make some popcorn...

  28. zzyzzx


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    165   6:11am Wed 13 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

  29. tr6


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    166   4:19pm Wed 13 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected  

    The biggest wildcard is the compression of margins. I just bought an iPad mini and Google Nexus 7. For many people it's becoming harder to justify to pay for a bigger iPad with more memory when you can get pretty much the same thing cheaper.

  30. zzyzzx


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    167   12:26pm Fri 1 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    AAPL down to $431.67/sh

  31. Reality


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    168   12:52pm Fri 1 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    The stock may be due for a bounce soon, but after that don't be surprise to see the stock reaching close to $200/share within a year's time or so.

    I loved what Jobs did, but the stock is broken after what the hedge funds did to it in 2012 above the 460+ island ramp job to $700.

  32. Kevin


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    169   10:30pm Sat 2 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    People spend billions on watches because a $10000 watch is a high end piece of jewelry. A $200-300 watch will never fit that category. You can't brag about the techie equivalent of a Timex.

    Smart watches could be interesting, but it'll take a really killer app to make them shine.

  33. bmwman91


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    170   3:03pm Sun 3 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    http://getpebble.com/

    Honest to god, this is a vastly superior product to what it sounds like Apple is making. Who the FUCK wants to charge their goddamn watch every day?! Surf the web on a 1" screen? Riiiiight. I am not saying that there won't be some amazing technology baked into an incredibly small package by Apple's iWatch, but it seems like a completely impractical gimmick.

  34. MsBennet


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    171   10:35pm Sun 3 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I was thinking about a month ago while driving down the freeway, what is Apple going to come up with next. First was the iPad, then the mini, and I thought what next. A computer watch?

    I swear to God. It's true.

    At that same time my next thought was the watch could project the display on a flat surface to enlarge it. Now, that will be weird if it comes true. You heard it here first. You are all my witnesses.

  35. zzyzzx


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    172   8:50am Mon 4 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    MsBennet says

    At that same time my next thought was the watch could project the display on a flat surface to enlarge it. Now, that will be weird if it comes true. You heard it here first. You are all my witnesses.

    I'm pretty sure I have seen stuff like this on TV, maybe sci-fi, but I am not sure. Would then see people watching their porn on walls in public places then.

  36. zzyzzx


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    173   10:10am Mon 4 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Down to $422.91/sh

  37. Graybox


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    174   10:28am Mon 4 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Going to 350/sh (odds?)

  38. evilmonkeyboy


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    175   6:22pm Wed 27 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    bmwman91 says

    Honest to god, this is a vastly superior product to what it sounds like Apple is making. Who the FUCK wants to charge their goddamn watch every day?! Surf the web on a 1" screen? Riiiiight. I am not saying that there won't be some amazing technology baked into an incredibly small package by Apple's iWatch, but it seems like a completely impractical gimmick.

    I have to agree, I can not think of a scenario where I would buy a "smart watch".

  39. zzyzzx


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    176   7:00pm Wed 27 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    evilmonkeyboy says

    I have to agree, I can not think of a scenario where I would buy a "smart watch".

    If the watch can project an image onto a wall for you to see, then maybe, but then other people would be hanging around to watch your porn.

  40. Bellingham Bill


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    177   7:23pm Wed 27 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    evilmonkeyboy says

    I have to agree, I can not think of a scenario where I would buy a "smart watch".

    not some clunky-ass block of metal, no.

    But back in the 1980s I had this really cool Armitron digital watch:

    the cool thing about it was that it was REALLY thin, not much thicker than the band.

    I'd love to have a smartwatch that talked to my other iOS and OS X devices via bluetooth.

    My bud has a Leaf and its key fob is pretty cool (just put the fob in your pocket and you don't need a key for the car), I could see the watch getting that functionality too.

    If I were to design the smartwatch, it'd be about as small and thin as possible, so I don't see a platform for 3rd party apps all that much, since the display would be too small for touch input.

    Shouldn't cost too much, either.

    One thing Apple could do is move the watch industry beyond 7 seg LCD technology, LOL

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven-segment_display

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