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Jobs are coming back!!!


By SFace   Follow   Fri, 17 Feb 2012, 10:33am PST   12,744 views   169 comments   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

Little have been said about the improving job situation.

The commerce department reported about 243K new jobs created in January 2012, notwithstanding government layoffs. Furthermnore, unemployment claims appears to be at the lowest level since the great recession.

These indicators are the most positive they have been for at least 4+ years. (Note that I am not saying the job situation is good, but it is obvious things are developing for the better) It appears the econoomy is turning the corner and finally lead by jobs and ultimately consumer confidence which will surely lead to housing price turnaround.

The next follow-up leading indicator will be consumer confidence which I predict will be up.

Last year around this time, gasoline price, Japan earthquake and Greece pretty much killed the positive momentum. Am really hoping that gas doesn't slow things down again. 2012 may be the best yet.

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/unemployment-83-january-2012-243000-jobs-really

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jvolstad   befriend   ignore   Tue, 28 Feb 2012, 7:51am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 90

Jobs are coming back? Pay off debt! Pay off debt! Pay off debt!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

rootvg   befriend   ignore   Tue, 28 Feb 2012, 11:14am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 91

As my marketing prof used to say twenty five years ago...IT DEPENDS. Our top storage guy at my present employer (he's the best I've ever known) says good systems engineering talent is always in demand. It's about a lot of things. Technical knowledge is the job but compatibility with other members of the team and then a willingness and ability to learn and adapt must all be part of the mix. You'd be stunned and amazed by the number of people I've worked with in this business who I would not admit to my home. It's scary.

rootvg   befriend   ignore   Tue, 28 Feb 2012, 11:35am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 92

bubblesitter says

SFace says

Jobs are coming back!!!

But,Are home prices coming back???

Eventually? Sure. Folks who said America was kaput in the Great Depression (we knew people who had been through it, have heard all the stories about the banks and FDR confiscating gold and folks walking through two feet of snow to get to their jobs) couldn't have been more wrong.

A former management prof of mine was an acquaintance of Louis Rukeyser who always said people had been betting against us since 1776 and they were always wrong. Warren Buffett will tell you the exact same thing.

People who walk around crowing about 99 percenters are either morons or trying to manipulate the rest of us. I'm not persuaded. If America is done, why do people keep flooding in here from Asia? Why do you think all those Asian students are spending their time and parents money at Berkeley for if not to get out there and make money?

Do we have problems? Yeah. Our currency is shit and we have to fix that, probably with another recession. Remember 1980-1982? That's gonna happen again and it HAS to because we can't get from where we are right now to a growth economy. The Fed says there is no inflation. They quit reporting the level of M3 in 2005 and then we took food and fuel out of the consumer price index. I mean, what in the hell else do most people buy?

Look for Paul Volcker, Act II. You heard it here first. He may not be the guy sitting at the desk testifying before Congress but he'll draw the map. You just watch and see.

RentingForHalfTheCost   befriend   ignore   Tue, 28 Feb 2012, 12:37pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 93

Houses beat inflation by only 0.4% annually from 1890-2004. Since 2004, that number is probably right around 0%. The new idea of home prices coming back is really prices staying stagnant. We have been fortunately to feel like houses always appreciate (at least up to 2007), but the reality is a house is one of the worst investment you can make. Investing in wigs would do you better over time. Buy a house because you want shelter and can afford the purchase. Don't buy because you think you can sell later and get your money back and more.

tatupu70   befriend   ignore   Thu, 8 Mar 2012, 10:49pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 94

It appears SFAce was right:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/february-jobs-gains-seen-strong-060614362.html

StoutFiles   befriend   ignore   Thu, 8 Mar 2012, 11:12pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 95

Of course jobs are coming back.

1. Person loses job making X dollars.
2. Person stays on unemployment hoping to find job that pays X dollars.
3. Unemployment finally runs out. Person takes job making much less than X.

So yes, there are jobs, but not at the same salary as they once were. That won't help the housing market.

bubblesitter   befriend   ignore   Thu, 8 Mar 2012, 11:15pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 96

StoutFiles says

So yes, there are jobs, but not at the same salary as they once were. That won't help the housing market.

Bingo!

freak80   befriend   ignore   Thu, 8 Mar 2012, 11:47pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 97

Yup. It's the same pattern that's been happening since the 70's. Good jobs are lost to China and India and replaced by shit-jobs in the service sector.

bubblesitter   befriend   ignore   Thu, 8 Mar 2012, 11:56pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 98

wthrfrk80 says

Yup. It's the same pattern that's been happening since the 70's. Good jobs are lost to China and India and replaced by shit-jobs in the service sector.

Te good,bad and ugly part of globalization!

tatupu70   befriend   ignore   Fri, 9 Mar 2012, 12:05am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 99

lol--I figured this would bring out the bears and glass half emptiers.

thunderlips11   befriend   ignore   Fri, 9 Mar 2012, 12:06am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 100

rootvg says

Eventually? Sure. Folks who said America was kaput in the Great Depression (we knew people who had been through it, have heard all the stories about the banks and FDR confiscating gold and folks walking through two feet of snow to get to their jobs) couldn't have been more wrong.

Thanks to game changing massive reform that was just short of a revolution, called the New Deal.

Not because of a little patience.

rootvg   befriend   ignore   Fri, 9 Mar 2012, 12:10am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 101

thunderlips11 says

rootvg says

Eventually? Sure. Folks who said America was kaput in the Great Depression (we knew people who had been through it, have heard all the stories about the banks and FDR confiscating gold and folks walking through two feet of snow to get to their jobs) couldn't have been more wrong.

Thanks to game changing massive reform that was just short of a revolution, called the New Deal.

Not because of a little patience.

Homo Economicus. Like Bigfoot, reported to exist in fantasy books, but never seen in the wild.

We know for a fact that Roosevelt's reform made the Depression worse. Things were getting better around 1936-1937 when we took another hit after all the government money dried up. I think it's gonna happen again with another recession.

tatupu70   befriend   ignore   Fri, 9 Mar 2012, 12:14am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 102

rootvg says

We know for a fact that Roosevelt's reform made the Depression worse. Things were getting better around 1936-1937 when we took another hit after all the government money dried up. I think it's gonna happen again with another recession.

Wow--talk about revisionist history. Let's analyze that statement. Things got better under FDR's reform until 1936/37 when the reforms basically stopped. Then things got worse. To summarize--reforms = better, no reforms = worse.

Your conclusion is that the reforms were the problem??

freak80   befriend   ignore   Fri, 9 Mar 2012, 12:14am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 103

rootvg says

we took another hit after all the government money dried up. I think it's gonna happen again with another recession.

The Dow tanked 500 points right after the debt-ceiling fiasco. What does that tell us about how much of our economy is dependent on government money?
tatupu70 says

lol--I figured this would bring out the bears and glass half emptiers.

Who said the glass was half empty? It's more like one-fourths full.

thunderlips11   befriend   ignore   Fri, 9 Mar 2012, 12:16am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 104

rootvg says

We know for a fact that Roosevelt's reform made the Depression worse. Things were getting better around 1936-1937 when we took another hit after all the government money dried up. I think it's gonna happen again with another recession.

tatupu70 says

Wow--talk about revisionist history.

Word.

?w=510

bubblesitter   befriend   ignore   Fri, 9 Mar 2012, 12:17am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 105

rootvg says

Eventually? Sure.

When? after Japan style lost decades?

rootvg   befriend   ignore   Fri, 9 Mar 2012, 12:18am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 106

thunderlips11 says

rootvg says

We know for a fact that Roosevelt's reform made the Depression worse. Things were getting better around 1936-1937 when we took another hit after all the government money dried up. I think it's gonna happen again with another recession.

tatupu70 says

Wow--talk about revisionist history.

Word.

?w=510

Homo Economicus. Like Bigfoot, reported to exist in fantasy books, but never seen in the wild.

What you don't know is that I've spent years with people who went through the Depression. I'm betting you haven't.

Or, I could be wrong.

thunderlips11   befriend   ignore   Fri, 9 Mar 2012, 12:24am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 107

rootvg says

What you don't know is that I've spent years with people who went through the Depression. I'm betting you haven't.

Anecdotes make for poor evidence.

Do you have any hard facts to support your claim about the New Deal making things worse?

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Fri, 9 Mar 2012, 12:27am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 108

We cannot have any real growth in the economy until the private debt is completely de-leveraged. Gov't ZIRP (zero interest rates), while helping the debt de-leveraging is killing lending, because, at these low rates and high risk of foreclosure, banks don't want to lend money for housing. ZIRP is also killing savers, so young people cannot save any money to buy the houses from the retiring baby boomers. All those things have to be reconciled, in order for the jobs and real growth to come back. The only solution is lower house prices.

rootvg   befriend   ignore   Fri, 9 Mar 2012, 12:27am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 109

thunderlips11 says

rootvg says

What you don't know is that I've spent years with people who went through the Depression. I'm betting you haven't.

Anecdotes aren't evidence.

Do you have any hard facts to support your claim about the New Deal making things worse?

Homo Economicus. Like Bigfoot, reported to exist in fantasy books, but never seen in the wild.

And this isn't a parlor game and I'm not in your court of law.

We had what was basically a third set of grandparents, and THEIR parents lost all their money in the Depression. I spent the better part of thirty years hearing their stories.

Where do you think I learned all this stuff?

iwog   befriend   ignore   Fri, 9 Mar 2012, 12:28am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 110

rootvg says

We know for a fact that Roosevelt's reform made the Depression worse. Things were getting better around 1936-1937 when we took another hit after all the government money dried up. I think it's gonna happen again with another recession.

While this is Republican dogma, it's totally false as thunder has demonstrated.

As I expected, root decided to totally ignore actual evidence and talk about some people he knew somewhere.

iwog   befriend   ignore   Fri, 9 Mar 2012, 12:30am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 111

rootvg says

Where do you think I learned all this stuff?

From right wing propaganda. Lots of people lost all their money in the depression, but that's not what you're asserting. You're saying Roosevelt made the Great Depression worse. You're dead wrong. You're easily proven wrong.

So will you talk about the evidence that proves you wrong? HELL NO! You run away from it and try and talk about hearsay. Intellectual corruption in spades.

iwog   befriend   ignore   Fri, 9 Mar 2012, 12:31am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 112

tatupu70   befriend   ignore   Fri, 9 Mar 2012, 12:33am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 113

rootvg says

We had what was basically a third set of grandparents, and THEIR parents lost all their money in the Depression. I spent the better part of thirty years hearing their stories.

Yep--the depression was a horrible, horrible time. Which is why I can't understand why many of the posters here seem to want to relive it.

Raising interest rates, cutting government spending, etc. are a recipe for Great Depression II.

And just so I understand--how does your knowing people who lost everything during the Depression lend any credence to your ridiculous statement that FDR's policies made things worse?

rootvg   befriend   ignore   Fri, 9 Mar 2012, 12:40am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 114

dunnross says

We cannot have any real growth in the economy until the private debt is completely de-leveraged. Gov't ZIRP (zero interest rates), while helping the debt de-leveraging is killing lending, because, at these low rates and high risk of foreclosure, banks don't want to lend money for housing. ZIRP is also killing savers, so young people cannot save any money to buy the houses from the retiring baby boomers. All those things have to be reconciled, in order for the jobs and real growth to come back. The only solution is lower house prices.

There are lower house prices, but not in most parts of the Bay Area.

As I keep saying, I was raised in this business. I don't see any reason to believe that desirable parts of this region are going to come into price ranges most of us here would see as "affordable". They're simply too much in demand and there are too many foreign investors (Asians) out there ready to pounce. You can give me all the charts and graphs you want but at the end of the day it's my money and I'm gonna do whatever the hell I want. I saw an opportunity, I took advantage of it and so far the people telling me it was a good idea outnumber those who don't about three to one.

This is always the battle that goes on between academics who say you can't do this or that and the people in the trenches who go out there and do it. After that, it's usually the academics who want some dickhead from the government to come in and make things "fair", whatever the fuck they think that means on any given day.

If you can't pay the prices here, MOVE. We almost did but (as I said) we got lucky in the right neighborhood and the people liked us and we ended up buying something out of an estate. All the kids from that family live in the same neighborhood where daddy built the houses. The oldest brother comes up to check on us about once each day.

rootvg   befriend   ignore   Fri, 9 Mar 2012, 12:41am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 115

tatupu70 says

rootvg says

We had what was basically a third set of grandparents, and THEIR parents lost all their money in the Depression. I spent the better part of thirty years hearing their stories.

Yep--the depression was a horrible, horrible time. Which is why I can't understand why many of the posters here seem to want to relive it.

Raising interest rates, cutting government spending, etc. are a recipe for Great Depression II.

And just so I understand--how does your knowing people who lost everything during the Depression lend any credence to your ridiculous statement that FDR's policies made things worse?

If raising interest rates and cutting government spending are a recipe for Great Depression II, why didn't we have one in the mid to late eighties?

RentingForHalfTheCost   befriend   ignore   Fri, 9 Mar 2012, 12:46am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 116

robertoaribas says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Houses beat inflation by only 0.4% annually from 1890-2004. Since 2004, that number is probably right around 0%.

So lets see: I buy a home that rents for 10% or more of price, with a loan at around 4%... AND it increases at the inflation rate? Inflation is quite low right now, but let's use 2% as a goal. With 2% appreciation, ANY purchase at near the same monthly outlay as renting becomes an extremely good investment long term.

Buying in areas where houses are cheap makes good sense. Like you said if you can rent for 10% of price then go for it. Impossible to do that in most areas of the country, especially the BA. BTW, real inflation (you know the one with energy and food) is running more like 6-7%. Don't listen to the results from a new formula that was designed to shield us from the truth. Lets do a 1-for-2 reverse split on the dollar and then post headlines saying "House prices have gone up 100%!" Let them fool the masses, but not us. i.e. watch the shells closely as they move, but also check the table for the trap door. That ball might move around if you are not looking hard enough. :)

http://etfdailynews.com/2012/03/08/inflation-how-the-government-lies-about-the-real-inflation-rate-uup-udn-tlt-tbt/

rootvg   befriend   ignore   Fri, 9 Mar 2012, 12:47am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 117

iwog says

rootvg says

We know for a fact that Roosevelt's reform made the Depression worse. Things were getting better around 1936-1937 when we took another hit after all the government money dried up. I think it's gonna happen again with another recession.

While this is Republican dogma, it's totally false as thunder has demonstrated.

As I expected, root decided to totally ignore actual evidence and talk about some people he knew somewhere.

If you think it's false, you'd better get ready for a lot of lies. No sitting President has won a second term under these economic conditions since Roosevelt did it in 1936...and Obama ain't Roosevelt.

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