WatchLittle have been said about the improving job situation.
The commerce department reported about 243K new jobs created in January 2012, notwithstanding government layoffs. Furthermnore, unemployment claims appears to be at the lowest level since the great recession.
These indicators are the most positive they have been for at least 4+ years. (Note that I am not saying the job situation is good, but it is obvious things are developing for the better) It appears the econoomy is turning the corner and finally lead by jobs and ultimately consumer confidence which will surely lead to housing price turnaround.
The next follow-up leading indicator will be consumer confidence which I predict will be up.
Last year around this time, gasoline price, Japan earthquake and Greece pretty much killed the positive momentum. Am really hoping that gas doesn't slow things down again. 2012 may be the best yet.
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/unemployment-83-january-2012-243000-jobs-really
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rootvg says
The next fed chief will do no such thing. Inflation in the 1970s was caused by a transition from single income households to duel income households combined with a growth in the money supply. Equilibrium would have been reached had the fed done absolutely nothing.
Volker gets too much credit, which is why no one will actually discuss the mechanics of killing inflation by raising the fed rate. They don't exist.
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iwog says
(sigh)
Look at the number of years Republicans versus Democrats have spent in the White House since the end of World War II. I already know what the answer is but I want you to see it for yourself.
This isn't the United States of California! There are only 55 Electoral votes here, and counting up that number in the so called "values states" comes to somewhere around three times that figure. That's without Ohio and Pennsylvania. Gallup has both of those going for the unnamed Republican in 2012.
At the end of the day, you're just another left winger in a Prius that all those southerners laugh at between gulps of sweet tea and mouthfuls of brisket and pulled pork! I LIVED there for a decade. I've seen it.
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rootvg says
Irrelevant to my point. (and your point)
rootvg says
Irrelevant to my point. (and your point)
rootvg says
And thus folks, we have the complete abandonment of rational discussion!
rootvg: Reagan and the Republican Senate got owned by the Democrats in the House of Representative.
Iwog: That's absurd.
rootvg: YOU DIRTY LEFT WINGER, I BET YOU DRIVE A PRIUS!!!!
Again......and I'll keep repeating it: Republicans as a group are not qualified to pick the president. They are irrational, easily led by the nose, hysterically focused on character assassination instead of issues, and can't answer questions. This thread is simply another data point.
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iwog says
HUH?
Volcker gets too much credit. Where does THAT come from?
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rootvg says
Logic and my own knowledge of the fed. Do you even know what the fed chair does? Do you?
Ultimately the Federal Reserve can only do two things: Change the federal funds rate and change the discount rate.
So I'll ask you. What are the mechanics of either the fed funds rate or the discount rate ending inflation? Instead of asking me to prove a negative, why not actually try and support your assertion?
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iwog says
Is that why we keep getting selected to run it?
Is that what the results of the 2010 House and Senate races told us?
It's not the United States of California!
You can scream all you want at me, but the political realities are what they are. We end up in charge most of the time (not all, but most) and you end up on the outside looking in with your face pressed against the window like a little kid. That's precisely what's coming in January 2013.
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rootvg says
What does ANY OF THIS have to do with your lame assertion that the Democrats in the House of Representatives dominated Reagan and the Republican Senate?????
Stop running away and answer the fucking question. What's wrong with you?
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Again with the Republican/Democrat argument? I'll solve the debate: they're both horrible. They also need each other, when people are tired of one failing they pick the other party hoping for better results. Both parties should be ousted.
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StoutFiles says
Not really. I'm just trying to have a single Republican on this entire site answer a single question about a single point they've made.
Anyone watching these exchanges should be getting an education on the difference between the two parties.
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StoutFiles says
It was always that way.
Have you ever wondered why there are two podiums in the House? Not one, not three...but two?
Washington hated parties and that's what it goes back to. The idea was to have two parties but close enough together that the country would always be basically headed in the same direction.
Bottom line, this isn't Europe. God Forbid that we turn into Britain or France. That's precisely what the Founders did NOT want.
This is also why I truly believe we're gonna be okay. It's the same people in charge, regardless...with a few exceptions during the last three years when we elected a thinly veiled rock thrower as President. The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced he was put there to shepherd the bailouts. We gave him Bob Dole's health care plan from the nineties in return which the Supreme Court might throw out, doing our dirty work for us. They're good at stuff like that.
Nothing has changed in two hundred and thirty five years.
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I started this thread because I believe we are at an infliction point and based on what I see today, the US economy has turned the corner. Isn’t that pretty good news for most American’s?
The February jobs report make that three solid reports in a row. There is no reason to believe March will not be better. Economic trends are very powerful. Just as firing leads to more firing, hiring trends have that same effect. The stock market has been screaming this all along.
There are two reasons why hiring is important, in addition to getting more people to work and contribute to the economy, it gets people who have already have jobs to feel safe about their jobs. Those how have wealth have more wealth. People who feared for their jobs in 2008 are now the same people who will no longer feel insecure about their jobs or may in fact demand raises and move to another company. It already happened in San Francisco/Silicon Valley as raises and bonus in 2011 are some of the highest in recent memories. 2012 will be an even better year for compensation.
All this really means is overall consumer confidence will be rising which leads to a little more spending and companies will be expanding thus have to hire more and pay a little more to retain what they have. Families who have been on the fence to buy a home will be off the fence to buy, in significant numbers which will move the market up. Seller’s will demand a little more or wait out their price a little more. That is already happening in the field level which will be reflected in the case shiller in about 3-4 months.
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Here's what I know:
My contractor says he's getting busier.
The guy at the hardwood store says he's getting busier.
The lady at the carpet store says her guys are booked for the next month.
Those people don't have charts and graphs that came from some professor over at Berkeley but they're feeling better and they're making a little money again.
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SFace says
We most definitely are at an infliction point:
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dunnross says
Problem is lower home prices CREATES more debt! Because in order for homes to sell people have to sell at a loss, putting them in a bigger hole of debt. If Fannie or Freddie own the loan and the "owner" defaults, then YOU the taxpayer go into more debt.
Sure the new buyer will come in and have a smaller mortgage than they would otherwise, but you just transfer the debt load. It's not fixing anything.
There's a lot of bad unintended consequences to home prices falling dramatically from current levels. A better solution at this point is to concentrate on increasing wages. Just because it's "easier" to lower home prices doesn't mean it's better for our society. I would argue wages being stagnant for over a decade is the REAL problem.
Housing got way ahead of wages in 2003-2007, but now it's time to stop trying to squeeze blood from the turnip of the housing market and concentrate on ways to increase wages.
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I would like to point out that many of the unemployment numbers cannot be relied upon at all.
When they increased the benefits from 6 months to 2 years that means there are a maximum of FOUR TIMES as many people on unemployment than previously possible.
I know if I got laid off I would milk the whole 2 years THEN start looking for work - you are crazy not to! (or you are broke and need the full income).
So if half the people on unemployment are like me (probably close to that) then the # is doubled. cant compare it to 'pre obama' numbers.
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Wait did he mean inFLECtion point?
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Philistine says
Shitty jobs.
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PockyClipsNow says
Yeah maybe, all I know is that I've been hearing the same "you can't trust the unemployment numbers" argument since Reagan.
The problem is that the longer you use a measuring statistic, the more it becomes it's own self-corrected index. There might not actually be 8.3% unemployed, but there are fewer unemployed now than last year or the year before. People do stop looking for work, but people also start looking for work again. The trend is more important than the actual number.
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BoomAndBustCycle says
Wrong. Lower house prices reduces debt. Nobody sells at a loss these days. You just walk away. Walking away is the de-leveraging of debt. Higher house prices and lower interest rates increases debt, because new buyers are being convinced that it is OK to get into more debt, as long as their payments are low. This is how we got into this mess in the first place, and perpetuating it is only going to get us deeper into the hole. Now, if the owner "defaults", and there are no bailouts, the only one taking the loss is the bond holder, not the tax payer. So far, with all these bailouts, no bond holder has taken a loss, only the tax payer has. The gov't has done everything wrong leading up to the crises, and they are doing everything wrong to lead us out of it, by keeping the "hopium" debt spigot going. This policy will only delay the ultimate recovery. Welcome to Japan II.
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BoomAndBustCycle says
Not for first time buyers.
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dunnross says
Also, even selling at a loss, doesn't increase debt. What increased debt was buying an overpriced house. Let's look at a hypothetical debt balance sheet when a distressed seller sells his house for a loss:
A debt B debt Total debt
A buys overpriced house for $1M putting 10% down +900K 900K
A sells house for $800K short-sale (takes $100K loss) -900K 0K
B buys house from A on short-sale for $800K with 20% down +640K 640K
As you can see, the sale of the house when the prices dropped 20% and stricter lending has resulted in a total debt reduction of close to 30% in debt.
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wthrfrk80 says
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dunnross says
"if there are no bailouts"... being the key sentence. If you think another big leg down in housing won't be followed by an equally large bailout, then so be it. I don't think the government has an option to stop the money spigot if the economy/housing takes a steeper downturn.
Where do most of the votes they need come from? Elderly Homeowners... They will cater government policy to them for another 20+ years.
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Apple is adding thousands of jobs for Americans....in TEXAS where else?
They'll be making another post-apocalypse movie soon: "Escape from California".
Yeah, the weather here is nicer. We knew that.
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BoomAndBustCycle says
Wrong.
http://articles.cnn.com/2008-11-04/politics/exit.polls_1_exit-polls-obama-camp-john-mccain?_s=PM:POLITICS
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clambo says
Starring Tony Manero as Apocalypsefuck.
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The labor participation rate can change from a number of different factors.
1) Generational. As baby boomers retire they are less apt to need to work. Social security has penalties if you make too much money. So technically that doesn't really increase participation..it lowers it.
2) Technology. It isn't a bad thing but in some ways technology has replaced the concepts of doing certain tasks. 15 years ago I could find kodak fotomats in every town. Now it's replaced by a kiosk in a drug store or walmart. One reason why HP is doing bad is not many really print out photos anymore
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bubblesitter says
All that said is the young voted for Obama.. The 18-24 year-old voter is still a minority compared to the boomer population.
The Obama vs. McCain vote wasn't the.. let housing prices fall vote vs. stop the bleeding vote.
And so far I don't think an Obama win will be bad at all for the housing market... He's not exactly Anti-Housing.
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BoomAndBustCycle says
The 18-24 voters don't normally show up in huge numbers and they won't show up this time, either. ACORN is gone, George Soros' antics are out in the open now and Obama has a record to run on. Also, the average new graduate today is out of work. Engineering and sciences majors probably not so much but business and non-techs? For sure. A lot of Baby Boomers still have those jobs and they're not giving them up.
The race will be won or lost in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. It's always the same. Ohio has picked the winner since 1960 and there's no reason to believe it won't do so again this year. Ten years from now it may be different because it'll lose another one or two Electoral votes but that's eight years away.
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Ohio presidential poll: http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/120304NBCMaristOhioMarch2012.pdf
Obama favorite by 12%
Florida presidential poll: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/election_2012_florida_president
Even Rasmussen has Obama leading.
Pennsylvania polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pennsylvania_obama_vs_republicans.html
Obama way ahead.
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clambo says
There is plenty of space in N. San Jose toFremont for Apple to occupy and hire, but certainly Texas gives them incentives to move jobs out of CA. R&D (Engineers). Accountants (CPAs), Financial an Planning Analysts (MBAs), and other operstions are in Texas.
Sources: Apple adds to Austin-area office space for Intrinsity chip unit, Aug. 4, 2010
Computer maker's lease of 55,000-square-foot building one of several local deals taking place, experts say
In one of the larger Austin-area office leases of the year, Apple Inc. will move its newly acquired Intrinsity chip-design unit into the Vista Ridge 2 office building on Southwest Austin's edge, according to sources familiar with the transaction.
Apple will lease 55,000 square feet, the entire building, which is near Capital of Texas Highway (Loop 360) and Lost Creek Boulevard. Intrinsity will move from about 20,000 square feet in Lake Pointe Center on Bee Cave Road.
The deal is one of several major lease deals in the local office market, which is seeing a number of companies quietly expand, including technology firms, local office brokers say.
Kristin Huguet, a spokeswoman for Apple, said the company had no comment and did not respond to a subsequent e-mail the Cupertino, Calif.-based company's plans for expansion in Austin
In April, Apple confirmed that it had bought Intrinsity Inc., which at the time had 100 workers, many of them veteran chip designers. Industry analysts say Intrinsity designed key parts of a chip in Apple's iPad.
Apple had a significant presence in Austin before the Intrinsity acquisition, including customer service and accounting operations.
Apple doesn't provide information on its work force by location, Huguet said. Local tech industry observers estimate Apple employs more than 2,500 people in Central Texas.
Apple has more than 400,000 square feet of office space at Riata Crossing in Northwest Austin.
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and nearly 2 years later...
March 9, 2012, 2:36 p.m. ET.Apple Plans To Double Texas Facilities, Invest $304 Million
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120309-712163.html
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones)--Apple Inc. (AAPL) plans to build a $304 million campus in Austin, Texas, doubling its presence there over the next decade.
The Cupertino, Calif., company said it will add 3,600 jobs in the next 10 years to its existing work force of 3,500 employees there. Apple said the move is part of a rapid expansion from 1,000 employees in 2004.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry's office said most of the jobs will be in sales, customer support and accounting for the area. In exchange, the state offered Apple a $21 million investment over 10 years through its business development efforts called the Texas Enterprise Fund.
"Apple is known for its bold innovation and game-changing designs, and the expansion of their Austin facility adds to the growing list of visionary high-tech companies that have found that Texas' economic climate is a perfect fit for their future," Perry said in a statement. "Investments like this further Texas' potential to become the nation's next high-tech hub."
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Mean while back in Silicon Valley.. some still arent hearing it..
Fresh out of Texas U, you think they care their new job isnt in California ?
Smile everyone.. they are doing what could have been your job.
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mdovell says
A semiconductor or drive parts are and always have been made by machines for decades. It has always been impossible to create and test 1M+ circuits on a semi chip waffer (AMD, Intel,TI, Seimens, Toshiba etc). But what or who makes the machines which makes the semis mfg machines? No other machines..its all labor...Thats always been and will continue to me Man-Made.. From stepper to tester/prober machines (Applied, LAM, TEL, Varian, Siemens). Its not possible to automate such machine production.
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iwog says
Do you have any idea what a Republican House majority and Senate super majority (Clinton's pollster is predicting it) would do to Obama in a second term, with all this shit floating around about him not being eligible for office and then everything that's going on with Geithner at Treasury and Holder at Justice? Do you really, honestly believe the Democratic party fathers want Obama ground into hamburger and impeached by the House and then tried in Mitch McConnell's Senate? Do you what that would do the country with twenty million people out of work, Depression era interest rates and small businesses dropping like dominoes
It NEVER happens that way. It's never allowed. The people who really run things won't stand for it.
Gallup has had the unnamed Republican carrying Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida for months. I could see Ohio for sure but Pennsylvania? Republicans only carry Pennsylvania in years with cataclysmic losses for Democrats: 1980, 1984, 1988.
Obama was the first Democrat to carry Virginia since 1964 and North Carolina since 1976. The black swan conditions under which Democrats normally win no longer exist and Gallup now shows those states reverting to historical patterns.
If that weren't enough, I have a personal story as well. My liberal cousins in the most liberal part of Ohio (NE Ohio) are scared to death to put out an Obama sign for fear their property will be vandalized. A Democrat doesn't normally have a hard time carrying Greater Cleveland but this year? It's gonna be tough.
Ed Rollins says he thinks it's gonna be like 1980, which was a Republican Electoral rout. Gallup has California, Washington, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland and the northeast going for Obama and the rest going for the unnamed Republican. In Electoral politics, that's called a catastrophic loss up and down the ticket. This is why Stu Rothenberg says there will be a Republican Senate super majority no later than 2014.
BIG changes are coming. I really think it's gonna be the early eighties all over again. Politically, it seems to be setting up that way.
http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/gallup-state-numbers-predict-huge-obama-loss/352881
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thomas.wong1986 says
The problem with Texas, especially for someone from California is the climate and then the culture. Austin is the most liberal major metro in Texas and there are a lot of relocated Californians already there but I suspect you'll find a lot of young kids going there, finding out it's too damn hot and too far away from the rest of the country and WAY too hot to stay there long term.
After the first year, I was sick every single day I lived there. If you're not raised around all that mold and cedar and God knows what else, the place won't work. You or your wife will end up with an auto immune disease you can't get rid of or (in our case) the allergist actually told me to get her the hell out of there as soon as I could. Six months after we moved to California, ninety percent of the symptoms went away and that's been ten years ago.
If you can go there as a new grad and keep your mouth shut about the backward fucking way they seem to do everything, you'll last long enough to build a resume and go somewhere nice. If you're a chronic bitcher or you can't keep from trying to sell those rednecks on how they do things elsewhere, forget it. Something bad will happen to you.
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rootvg says
For many its not going to matter... if one candidate declines, there will be plenty others will accept. No different if it was IBM, Intel, Dell, HP or GE in any othe city or state outside of CA.
Typically, we only have 1000-2000 emloyees / per large employer working in the BA. for these large companies. Far many more are outside of the region. Those are the realities.
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thomas.wong1986 says
It mattered for everyone I knew. Of all the people I worked with during the years we lived there, the only ones who stayed were those who couldn't go anywhere else because they had poor skills or grew up there.
It damn sure does matter. I was THERE. My politics are a better fit for Texas than California as I'm sure you've figured out by now but we were so sick so often than it didn't matter what kind of house we had. We lived in 2800 sq ft, solid brick, pool/spa in one of the nicest neighborhoods in Plano. The guy next door was a manufacturer's rep and the guy in back was a retired SVP of HR for Travelers Insurance and later Citibank. Anyone who made over $100K yearly salary and needed to be gotten rid of ended up being fired by him. He was a traveling HR manager and scalp hunter. You should have seen the inside of that guy's house. He must have made a ton of money over the years. He bought a new Cadillac and Corvette every three years. That right there told me he came from finance.
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rootvg says
AMD had a several thousand located in California back in late 80s. Today, around 700.. the rest 10,000+ of the headcount is in Austin and other parts of the globe. Symantec has under 1500 in SFBA, while the rest of the 17,000 is outside. For many outside of CA there isnt any issues. They are all too glad to have SV Tech jobs and live in much lower cost regions.
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thomas.wong1986 says
If we only had in the SFBA home prices same or somewhat close to Texas home prices, and a favorable business enviroment, oh the jobs we could grow in the Bay Area. Just think about it...heck even cheap homes in Modesto sounds good about now...
Anyone want to discuss "Fortress" prices, the weather, the eco system, which will feed home prices and keep your jobs here.... keep praying!