The Japan comparison is informative, but only to a point, right? Japan has markedly different demographics, among other things obvious and not so obvious. I don't think we'll see a 20 year slide from here - if only bc the echo-boomers are going to need a place to live. Lots of them, especially in nicer areas, will have strong parental $backing$. I'd love to see continued price dropping, but I don't think the powers that be would allow such a slide...
First: It is very hard to catch the exact top or exact bottom of any market (stock or real estate). If you catch most of the swing you are doing well. If you wait too long you miss the entire market move. Most investors or traders who try and catch the exact bottom usually end up with nothing. I have never been able to catch an exact bottom, but I can get close.
Second: It is hard to get a good price by watching just one property. You will get a good price by putting out many "ridiculous" offers until you flesh out the seller who is realistically in touch with this market.
I decided last summer to buy a beach front condo in Ventura County as a second home. I made several unsuccessful offers over the summer and fall, and had some near deals. Finally, in the dead of winter I made an outstanding deal and closed a condo at a price lower than the seller paid 20 years ago.
I have done this in many real estate market swings. I bought and sold a second home in Lake Arrowhead in the 2000 swing, and bought and still own my home in Westlake Village in the 1987 swing. I have bought and sold many commercial properties over three decades the same way.
Each time I have to spend many months making offer after offer just to find a seller. You need an agent with a thick skin, or several of them you can wear out along the way. You also need to just be patient and wait.
Each time I never knew if the market would ever recover, and each time it did. This time again, I do not know if this market will ever recover. Even if it does not, I really like the condo and will just keep it if this market is the "new normal."
Typically, people in that situation have millions to spend because they worry MORE about bubbles, where there money is going, and how their assets are doing. Not worrying about things like this is one of the reasons most people never find themselves in that situation.
But the bubble is over dudes. There is calculating risk and there is analysis paralysis. The point is this jockeys already willing to sink 2 mill for a dwelling. That right there puts you in loco territory. It's like saying you are worried that paying forty dollars for a gallon of milk instead of 34 dollars for the same gallon when you know its insane either or. I don't want to overpay too much, but I am still willing to overpay by a lot.
So no residence is worth 2 millions dollars? It could be a mansion with every posh finish and upscale add on you could possibly think of, and 100 acres of land with a pool and pool house and guest house and theres no way that residence will be worth 2 million? Some people say some really dumb things on here.
"Theres no way wood and brick can ever cost 2 million dollars!"
True, and a few sales occur. However, I have two more properties that have magically appeared, disappeared, and reappeared on the MLS. The higher end one, I thought, yeah, someone bought that one. The cheap one, I thought, yeah, someone bought that one. But no, the magical mystery magician whoever he or she is has made them reappear on the market.
What makes something worth 2 million dollars? If I can get forty people to spend one hundred dollars on a kit kat bar, does that make kit kats worth 100 dollars? If I can sell someone the Brooklyn Bridge for 50K does that make it worth 50K?
No one single residence is worth 2 million dollars unless it is sitting on oil rich land and you have mineral rights.. Or maybe if it comes with a fleet of robots that will massage you and blow you every morning.
No, it doesn't. It means there is an extreme mania or exogenous factor distorting the relative equilibrium of the supply and demand curves. Historically, such extreme manias require facilitation by way of incentives or lax lending as in the case of our credit bubble from 1998-06 as desire to pay any price for something is not always enough to realize such gross distortions.
The island analogy is a perfect example of an extreme scenario. :-D
I don't know about it being an issue, but those houses are Fugly, for one thing, and for another, they are smallish for the price and appear poorly built.
I just picked out 6 random houses from RB to Venice whether they were pending or not to illustrate the point. Obviously, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of houses in LA that will satisfy the OPs requirements. As for style, that is in the eye of the beholder. And qualitywise, hard to tell from the pics, but if you really want quality, you are looking in the wrong state. Very few stone or brick construction homes in California because of earthquake codes.
I dont consider 3848 sq ft (Playa Vista) to be smallish. Maybe in Victorville, but not near the ocean.
Playa Vista, Venice, Redondo Beach??, Hermosa??, Manhattan Beach--all of these places you have listed are *not* LA. They are outlying areas that *might* appeal to some people, but Manhattan Beach and Redondo are like literally an hour to get most places actually in LA. The surface streets are dreadful during morning/evening rush hour.
LA is Mid-City/Wilshire, Westwood, Hancock Park, Beverly Hills, Culver City, West Hollywood, Hollywood, and maybe a couple surrounding neighborhoods. Santa Monica probably. These areas are the heart of actual LA, where a majority of the jobs, culture, decent food, etc. are (just look at the 10 during morning commutes or weekend traffic and you will see both directions jammed between downtown and Santa Monica). You want to live in these neighborhoods? H'wood might get you under a mill if you love the crime and retardedness. Rest of these will be easily over a mill unless you are shopping for a 1000 sqft barfy '70s condo.
Because I live and work in these neighborhoods, my "commute" is literally 12 minutes and the gas money saved not idling stupidly and time I save are extremely value-added to my quality of life.
LA is Mid-City/Wilshire, Westwood, Hancock Park, Beverly Hills, Culver City, West Hollywood, Hollywood, and maybe a couple surrounding neighborhoods. Santa Monica probably. These areas are the heart of actual LA, where a majority of the jobs, culture, decent food, etc. are
That's nonsense. Those areas you described are exactly where you do NOT want to live.
Decent food? LOL. We have some of the best restaurants here in Calabasas, Agoura Hills, Westlake Village, Malibu. From Indian to Thai to BBQ. And no issues to park - room to breathe.
Some people like to live in area's that are actually nice. Where you can hike out your backyard and live close to the ocean. To get to the ocean from any of the area's above its a haul, you end up never going. When is the last time you went for a walk?
Well, I say that...because I am blessed and work from home so I don't have to live in car smog. I barely drive.
Still, I know many people that commute right into Hollywood. And they all say that its worth driving home to a nice area.
Playa Vista, Venice, Redondo Beach??, Hermosa??, Manhattan Beach--all of these places you have listed are *not* LA. They are outlying areas that *might* appeal to some people, but Manhattan Beach and Redondo are like literally an hour to get most places actually in LA.
My commute is 30 secs. I work from home. The OP never mentioned anything about his/her commute. Maybe they can clarify where they work, if they do.
I work from home mostly, but sometimes have to commute to the movie studios, which are mainly in Burbank or Culver City. My wife can work anywhere there is a hospital. I'd like to stay close to studios, but it's not detrimental. And the only reason we don't leave Southern California is because we have a lot of family here, and that is very important to us.
I am in the Internet business, work from home, and also have to go to the studios. I arrange my client visits after 1030. Last week, it took me 30 mins from the South Bay to get to the Paramount lot. Burbank would take 45 mins-1 hr on a good day...but it depends what your definition of sometimes is..if once a month, doable. If once/week, not.