Case-Shiller lags anywhere from 3-5 months at the field level., but...
Companies (particurarly banks) pay a lot of money to access subscription services generated by Fiserv and Moody's. Their good reputation is on the line
Fiserv - Moody's Case-Shiller Forecast - SFBA
By SFace Follow Fri, 24 Feb 2012, 11:34am 12,084 views 160 comments
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tatupu70 says
I still disagree with anyone on this issue. The shadow inventory is very real. Highly manipulated, but real.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Regardless of how much there is, as long as shadow inventory remains in the shadows, it hardly matters. Is your theory that the manipulators who have managed to keep all this inventory on the market suddenly going to stop manipulating?
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Assuming arguendo, it is real why did you always focus on the number, and not the way it was going to be disposed of? You would certainly agree that 9 years of shadow inventory listed, en masse, in 18 months time, would have a large difference vs say 9 years of shadow inventory, metered out slowly over 18 years.
So given that MTM was relaxed in 2009, and the general disposition of the fed (circa 2009 & beyond) why did you continue to believe it was all going to be puked up in some "woosh" type event, driving prices down into the stone age?
At what point did you wake up, and realize, gee, maybe that whole "dont fight the fed" thing had some merit to it?
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
keep living in your own made up fantasy world, it has worked so well for you so far!
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CDon says
At the point where I realized our grandchildren, and then their children, will be bearing the punishment for our greed. I guess you can't underestimate how far our leaders will go. Everyone on here seems so happy that we have rapped future generations of the prosperity we had. I am not. You and others can keep gloating like you had a crystal ball, but in the end there is a huge problem still brewing that wouldn't take much to push us into another fiscal crisis. I'm definitely ready and I hope others are as well. Nothing has really changed except stealing from our future. I was negative about the next decade back in 2007, but now I am just overall negative about this country. Sad...
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Well said - the kids thank you.
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E-man says
A picture is worth a thousand words. The green line shows we go through this event in every recession, and we WILL approach the red line again. That's the Fed's ultimate goal.
WORTH REPEATING.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Hey--we can agree about this. The problem is wealth disparity and until we can find a solution, it won't take much to push us into another recession/depression.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
If you look at my posting history, I have noted several times the predicament that our country is in the the very long term. Still, not once did my emotions about what "should be" affect my recognition about what "is".
Imagine how much better your calls would have been too had they not been clouded with the emotion of your feelings of what should be.
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CDon says
I have more than fine on my calls. Even though I stayed away from housing (aside from owning in areas outside of the SFBA), I loaded up on the market in 2009-2011 and have been rewarded handsomely. So, sure, housing hasn't done what I would expect or hope, but the reasons for that are fine with me, because my wealth verses housing costs just keep improving each year. Only 6 months through this year and most major stock indexes are up 20% or more. I still wouldn't add to my housing position, and probably won't until there is the inevitable shift. Interesting that already there is talk in the Feds meetings about easing up on the QE forever. It will come, there is no endless pit of money to play with. Although, there is war to distract everyone from our dilemma. Which I have predicted numerous times on here. Instead of admitting to our financial disaster, we will undoubtedly declare war and put fear back into everyone's minds. Give it a couple more years. The last thing you will think about is your house equity.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
If housing didn't bounce back, do you believe the stock market would still be up 20%?
Whether it be QE or the manipulation of shadow inventory, a lot of people have profited from it, including those who didn't even purchase RE.
The biggest losers were the doom and gloomers who decided that they should keep holding cash because Cash was King.
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zesta says
I don't think it's wise to ever disrespect cash. Equities and RE are simply vehicles to transform a pile of cash into a bigger pile of cash in the end. That in itself makes cash king and deserving of a place on the top of the asset vehicles hierarchy.
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zesta says
Very true. QE is really at the root of any of the moves in real estate or equities. I admit that I underestimated the extend that this gov't/fed would extend itself to protect asset prices. Cash hasn't been a good place to be the last few years. My only regret is not at all about housing, it is that I should have just been buying and rolling over option calls on equities rather than owning the underlying stock. If anyone really had a crystal ball, like many believe they do, then why don't I here about people who did just that? No riskier than buying housing in this market IMHO.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
This really is an amazing statement. I don't think you are equaled in the history of pat.net. You have now claimed that both of these are successful investment strategies:
1. Selling option calls to make money in an up market.
2. Buying option calls to make money in an up market.
Do you understand now why you shouldn't be giving investment advice???
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Hey I just had a great idea! You bragged about making money by selling calls over the last few years. You also regret not buying calls over the last few years.
WHAT IF you simply sold the covered calls to yourself, then you would book twice the gains!!!!!!
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iwog says
First off, I use #1 because in nature I am very conservative and 6-10% annually is perfect for me. That is what I do, and it has been a great strategy.
#2 is something I have never done. But if someone says to me that I should regret not jumping into real estate the last few years, then I would have rathered done #2. What is boosting real estate is not fundamentals, it is free money being offered by the Fed's actions. That has also sent equities to the sky. In hindsight, if I had the power to go back in time, I would buy calls on equities. Not dive into real estate. Now you get it? I doubt I would ever deal in naked calls, ever. Just like I will never buy real estate in the type of market we have been dealing with in SFBA since 2004.
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iwog says
Sometimes you really need to keep you idiot thoughts to yourself. You do yourself no favors showing your ignorance and hatred around here.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Why are you mad at me?? If you're able to make money selling calls and you're able to make money buying calls (both of these your assertions) why not skip the middle man and just sell them to yourself?
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rentingwithhalfabrain, you are just lying and making stuff up on here. Sure, anyone can look backwards and say 'I should have done X on day Y' that has nothing to do with anything.
That simply does not count as thinking, it is just crap. By that same logic, I should have gone to California last year, and bought 10 homes on credit...
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I'm still kicking myself for not putting a hundy on the 6-9 exacta at preakness.
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iwog says
They were said in totally different contexts. Guess that is hard to follow for you. Again, I have never in my life played with naked calls. It is close to being as risky as buying SFBA real estate. Close...
I target making 6-10% using my selling call strategy, but the last few years I'll take the close to 20% year after year with very little downside risk. You can play with fire all you like. But, if you ask me why I didn't play, then I will also give you a hypothetical. Why didn't you load up on calls Iwog? You seem to think you know the future, so why?
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robertoaribas says
My point exactly. Looking backwards really proves nothing. If you are doing what-ifs then why housing? Why not out of the money calls and make some real money. Housing is so 1990s. It is old already...
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
I wasn't suggesting that you play with naked calls. Not one single thing I wrote involved naked calls.
You claimed that writing covered calls was a good idea and you also lamented buying calls was a good idea. I realize you're an investing illiterate but even you should be able to understand that these are polar opposites and can't both be right.
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iwog says
Sorry the idea of talking hypothetical escapes you. Again, I will never buy naked calls. If you can't understand that then this conversation escapes you. I was talking about if I had the option to go back, if I knew the course of events to unfold from 2009 to now, which I didn't and I never will. You talk like you do, so good for you. I will never use my hard earned money betting with or against the Feds. Just me. You play anyway you want. Still doesn't change what I would recommend to people. For most selling covered calls and getting a repeatable 6-10% annually is a great option.
What is a good approach when you know the future is not necessary a workable approach when you don't. They are two completely different things. Hopefully, there is some flicker of light in that big head of yours.
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errc says
Iwog did, because apparently he can predict the future. Everyone should be listening to his advice. Buy in Concord as this is the next Stockton in the works. The tenants are all well educated high salaried folks that don't mind paying more in rent that it would cost to own. Life is amazing in Concord.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
The term "buy naked call" has no meaning.
RentingForHalfTheCost says
Oddly enough that was the exact same period that you told everyone you were making money writing options.
So again........you said selling options made you money and you said buying options was smart (hindsight) so my question is this: Why do you think you could have profited by selling options to yourself?
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@iwog,
It looks like not only David Losh & Roberto need to get a room. Do you want me to also book a room for you and RFHTC?
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iwog says
True, there is no such thing as 'buy naked call'. That shows how naive I am related to that part of the risky game. I have never dealt with naked options, never bought calls or puts, ever. My only game in the real world (one where you don't have a time machine) is the profitable selling covered calls. Why you keep harping on the other is amazing to me. Simply amazing.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Well, it might be because you were obviously lying. You know, just a thought.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
OK, so suspending the whole MCD fake dates/expose "biasing" thing, perhaps you need to ask yourself, if you are doing awesome in making equities calls, why are your calls on housing so abysmal?
Remember, this site was, first and foremost a housing bubble site. It was originally populated by a lot of people who got priced out in the 2006 bubble, and waited out the 2007-2009 downturn. By 2012, all they wanted to know was "is this it"? - can we now buy and get on with life?
Yet, if you look at the beginning of this this thread, here you are, in early 2012, guns a blazing, telling people as follows:
- without job improvement, you can "bet your grandmothers china" that there will be "no housing improvement", and that "time will be our witness here. Don't say I didn't warn you."
- dunnross is telling us that we will see his nominal 1975 prices and you give it a "+1"
- you later tell us there is another "20% drop that is coming our way soon"
- you then get into a conflict with tatupu about what constitutes "real" data, irked that the MSM is ignoring the shadow inventory, saying "To say inventories are short for 2012 when we know the shadow inventory gorilla is walking into the room is crazy. The inventories are going to explode incredibly in 2012, just wait."
Mind you too, this is but one of many of your posts in early 2012 that had a certain, cocksure - pound the table certainty - that the people who were buying homes, even just to live in were making a terrible terrible mistake.
Well given that time has proven your remarks wrong don't be surprised that people are giving you a hard time about it now. Its just the way it goes. Given the overall certainty of your tone, had time proven you right, you would be deserving of praise - since you were not, you are deserving of ridicule.
So again, going forward, maybe your alleged fantastic predictions and performance in equities (all of which are presumably made without emotion) should be your guide in making further predictions on housing. Start being right for a while, and people wont be giving you such a hard time going forward.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Obviously if you could have made money buying calls, you can't possibly have made money selling calls. Everyone told you this but you simply ignored them and kept on bragging about what a great system you had.
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There's a lot of lover's quarrels going on in this thread.
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Goran_K says
It's time for me to take a break; maybe drive out to OC and hang out on the beach....
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iwog says
Sorry you have trouble grasping the conversation. Sit back, take a good nap and try again later...
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CDon says
Simple answer. The Fed has bankrupt the country going forward. Sad to see. Myself, along with many others, never expected it. My calls on real estate follow the fundamentals and they have not changes. It is a shell game with the Feds holding all the cards at this point. Believe in it, if it is making you money, but until this shell game is over, none of my money will enter the game. Most people buying at this point, which is what determines the market prices, are counting on continual gains. I don't see how that is remotely possible. My nature would have me out at this point, so looking back I would still never enter. I have been in and out, have now been in and out of another runup in the stock market. I'm doing fine. You can have housing. I don't care for it much like this. Hope you get out at the right time.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Translation from RFTClish to english: " I completely f**cked up, but I'll make some stuff up here rather than admit it. "
"Heck maybe I'll even make up some more fictional investments, so I can gloat while I'm wrong as hell"
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Where is the evidence that the investment component is the main driver of buying real estate?
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robertoaribas says
Laguna Beach? :)
Going to be crowded here this weekend.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
True, and hopefully the stock won't raise that much past the target price when the option contract comes due. Greed should be contained, and playing a covered call option is a safe way to make a good return on investment.
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Keep an eye on P/E ratio, when it gets past 22 then I would start selling or at least stop buying if I plan on holding my stocks for at least 5 or more years.
I think the next crash will come very quickly and with at least a 30% drop because almost everybody is expecting it. It will almost be like a run on the banks.