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House Prices Resume Their Fall - Graphic

By tovarichpeter   Follow   Fri, 2 Mar 2012, 9:32pm   4,398 views   31 comments
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http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/03/02/business/Home-Prices-Resume-Their-Fall.html

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1. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 170 threads 4,182 comments Premium

   1   8:43am Sat 3 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Next stop: CANNIBAL ANARCHY!

2. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

   2   11:06pm Sat 3 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   But now they have fallen below 2009 levels in most markets?? Can't be,2009 is,was,and will be the bottom of RE in USA - forever. LOL.

3. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 170 threads 4,182 comments Premium

   3   4:50am Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   It just means Fortress Theory is immutable and everyone should buy into those zip codes and enjoy 10x increases in valuations in no time flat. Never been a better time to buy.

4. dodgerfanjohn Follow Befriend 19 threads 589 comments Los Angeles, CA

   4   9:31am Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says It just means Fortress Theory is immutable and everyone should buy into those zip codes and enjoy 10x increases in valuations in no time flat. Never been a better time to buy. I think people buying right now actually believe this. I find no other rational reason for people to mortgage in these areas and utterly desperate to do so.

5. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,516 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   5   9:31am Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The graph is very nearly flat with a whopping 1.8% loss over three years. Furthermore we're now at the bottom of the winter real estate market cycle and prices are now trending sharply higher.

6. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,001 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

   6   10:13am Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says The graph is very nearly flat with a whopping 1.8% loss over three years. Furthermore we're now at the bottom of the winter real estate market cycle and prices are now trending sharply higher. -1.8% over three years is actually about a drop of 11% inflation adjusted (assuming a 3% inflation rate). For a million dollar home with 20% down, that would mean a loss of 110,000 on an investment of 200,000 or a 55% loss. Nothing to feel good about at all. If you put that 200K in Microsoft, Coke, Intel, GE, Ford, GM, Pepsi, P&G, Dupont, Chevron, etc. etc. you would be in a much stronger position. Period.

7. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 170 threads 4,182 comments Premium

   7   10:18am Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   But, but, but, Mr Tazmanian, real estate never decreases in price. Everyone knows that. These reports of price collapse are just fables cooked up by people who hate landlords. That's a fact.

8. Nomograph Follow Befriend (1) 104 threads 2,851 comments

   8   11:14am Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says -1.8% over three years is actually about a drop of 11% inflation adjusted (assuming a 3% inflation rate). Nominated.

9. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

   9   11:43am Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says The graph is very nearly flat with a whopping 1.8% loss over three years. So,what is your point? Loosing 1.8% is okay? What thresold % of justifiable loss is okay after purchase 2%? 5%? 10%? Just admit that prices are falling and come out of your FLAT theory :)

10. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    10   12:05pm Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   tovarichpeter says House Prices Resume Their Fall - Graphic Need a proof? Here is one example. http://www.redfin.com/CA/La-Palma/4752-Windsong-Ave-90623/home/4017899 2009 was the bottom? correct. LOL.

11. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,001 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    11   2:03pm Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bubblesitter says tovarichpeter says House Prices Resume Their Fall - Graphic Need a proof? Here is one example. http://www.redfin.com/CA/La-Palma/4752-Windsong-Ave-90623/home/4017899 2009 was the bottom? correct. LOL. Notice how they put the 19%/yr appreciation when it goes up, but as it goes down they just put "--". Now that is trying to hide the data. I was pretty sharp at solving number series in my day. One of the best in the country on the national math IQ test and I can see the next data point here easily. 2014 - 300K. After that, it depends on who has bought the most ammunition. ;)

12. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,516 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    12   3:23pm Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bubblesitter says So,what is your point? Loosing 1.8% is okay? What thresold % of justifiable loss is okay after purchase 2%? 5%? 10%? Just admit that prices are falling and come out of your FLAT theory :) Yes it's perfectly okay. What idiot would pass up a chance to buy at 1.8% from the bottom? Do you know what the difference is between you and someone who bought in early 2009? Assuming a person got a mortgage in early 2009 for a $300,000 house, that person has paid off $14,000 worth of equity and lost $5400 (1.8%)for a net gain of $8600 plus tax benefits. Oh and you? Your rent is going up and you have no gain at all.

13. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    13   3:31pm Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says bubblesitter says So,what is your point? Loosing 1.8% is okay? What thresold % of justifiable loss is okay after purchase 2%? 5%? 10%? Just admit that prices are falling and come out of your FLAT theory :) Yes it's perfectly okay. What idiot would pass up a chance to buy at 1.8% from the bottom? Do you know what the difference is between you and someone who bought in early 2009? Assuming a person got a mortgage in early 2009 for a $300,000 house, that person has paid off $14,000 worth of equity and lost $5400 (1.8%)for a net gain of $8600 plus tax benefits. Oh and you? Your rent is going up and you have no gain at all. You still did NOT answer my question 2%? 5% 10%?. GL on passing your math to some one else,sorry not me. :)

14. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    14   3:33pm Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says Oh and you? Your rent is going up and you have no gain at all. LOL. Rent is going up in your wonderland,not for me. I am paying same rent for 3 years.

15. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    15   3:35pm Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says that person has paid off $14,000 worth of equity I guess being such a successful landlord you have never looked at negative equity angle.

16. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,516 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    16   3:38pm Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bubblesitter says You still did NOT answer my question 2%? 5% 10%?. GL on passing your math to some one else,sorry not me. :) That answer is personal to every home purchase and buyer. I paid $208,000 in 2009 for a home that now rents for $1900. PITI is $1100 and there might be another $100 -$200 a month in misc. expenses. Assuming a net of $600 per month and $7200 per year, the home would have to drop greater than 4% every single year before depreciation would eat into my net. So the answer for that one house is greater than 10%. Satisfied? bubblesitter says I guess being such a successful landlord you have never looked at negative equity angle. Not only did I include negative equity, but I calculated the dollar amount. Give me some credit here.

17. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    17   3:43pm Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says greater than 4% every single year So,anything less then 4% loss in value is considered flat RE? Live with that. I don't blame you for someone paying $1900 rent for that place. I can only imagine how a 208K property looks like,but I won't pay $1900 rent for it for sure.

18. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,516 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    18   3:49pm Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bubblesitter says So,anything less then 4% loss in value is considered flat RE? That's actually nothing even close to what I said or even the question you asked. Here's the question you asked: bubblesitter says What thresold % of justifiable loss is okay after purchase 2%? 5%? 10%? That was the question you asked. My answer was that it would have to be something greater than 12% over three years before it would not be a justifiable loss for a house I bought in 2009. Your question didn't include anything about the definition of a flat market. bubblesitter says I can only imagine how a 208K property looks like,but I won't pay $1900 rent for it for sure. It looks terrific. 4br, 2ba, large lot, 2 car garage, granite counters, new appliances, and fruit trees.

19. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    19   3:59pm Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says My answer was that it would have to be something greater than 12% over three years before it would not be a justifiable loss for a house I bought in 2009. Okay thanks for making it clear. iwog says It looks terrific. 4br, 2ba, large lot, 2 car garage, granite counters, new appliances, and fruit trees. I'd buy that one instead of renting it for $1900.

20. Underdark Follow Befriend 1 threads 61 comments Miami, FL

    20   4:37pm Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   iwog says The graph is very nearly flat with a whopping 1.8% loss over three years. Furthermore we're now at the bottom of the winter real estate market cycle and prices are now trending sharply higher. And the robo-signing settlement was reach with the banks. Now the huge backlog of mortgages and shadow inventory that has been off the market will start to appear. You ain't seen nothing yet. Come on IWOG. Just admit you made a bad call in the 2009 bottom (-1.8% and counting). It will make you feel good. I promise.

21. clambo Follow Befriend (5) 1,070 comments Santa Cruz, CA

    21   7:57pm Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Once in awhile I check out the foreclosures in Santa Cruz, they're still increasing, not slowing down. It's a bit amazing to see.

22. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,001 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    22   8:12pm Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   clambo says Once in awhile I check out the foreclosures in Santa Cruz, they're still increasing, not slowing down. It's a bit amazing to see. I visited a foreclosure in Saratoga over the weekend which was fun. Perfect timing cause I had to take a dump while I was there. The place was going for 1.8million but my dump alone probably took it down to 1.7. I had Indian food earlier in the day which can really mess me up sometimes. ;)

23. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,516 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    23   8:56pm Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Underdark says Come on IWOG. Just admit you made a bad call in the 2009 bottom (-1.8% and counting). It will make you feel good. I promise. Why don't you look at my actual numbers and tell me I made a bad call? I'd make this "bad call" a thousand times over if I could get financing. Realtors Are Liars says Ahhh.... so our deluded bull bought in 2009? Now it makes sense. You bought in 2009 Iwog? lmao..... Wow. No wonder you can't be honest when your entire future is dependent on a return of the Great Housing Fraud. I'm sorry for you. I bought in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and I'm in escrow on one with a pending offer on another in 2012. I don't need the return of any housing fraud, in fact I don't even need the price of real estate to increase. Ever! Rents alone justify these homes so I bought them.

24. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,516 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    24   8:58pm Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   clambo says Once in awhile I check out the foreclosures in Santa Cruz, they're still increasing, not slowing down. It's a bit amazing to see. Santa Cruz is heavily dependent on middle class tourism and/or retirement and will suffer for it as the rich and the poor take over the country. I wouldn't buy there for that reason.

25. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 170 threads 4,182 comments Premium

    25   9:07pm Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Did you take a dump on the stairs? That always unnerves the Realtor®s RentingForHalfTheCost says clambo says Perfect timing cause I had to take a dump while I was there. The place was going for 1.8million but my dump alone probably took it down to 1.7. I had Indian food earlier in the day which can really mess me up sometimes. ;)

26. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    26   9:15pm Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says I bought in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and I'm in escrow on one with a pending offer on another in 2012. Uh, you forgot 2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007. Is there a year in your lifetime that you have not bought an RE? haha. Keep it coming.

27. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,516 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    27   9:17pm Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   bubblesitter says Uh, you forgot 2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007. Is there a year in your lifetime that you have not bought an RE? haha. Keep it coming. Again you're wrong. I bought one house in 2000 and sold it in 2005. What makes you think I've got the resources to buy unlimited houses? Most of the money I'm using is borrowed.

28. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    28   9:39pm Sun 4 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says Again you're wrong. I bought one house in 2000 and sold it in 2005. What makes you think I've got the resources to buy unlimited houses? Most of the money I'm using is borrowed. That is good for you.

29. everything Follow Befriend (2) 3 threads 546 comments Madison, WI

    29   5:27pm Mon 5 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   On most days I have to agree with Iwog, I'm still seeing high prices, and lots of listings, not sure where people are coming up with the money but credit is aplenty as always. I think the MSM is telling people prices are low and all the suckers that did not learn their lesson the first time are lining up. Still, I think you have to know the RE market in order to keep from getting screwed over on RE transactions these days, otherwise, it's an investors paradise.

30. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,001 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    30   5:43pm Mon 5 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   everything says otherwise, it's an investors paradise. I would call it a short squeeze right now instead of an investors paradise. The players getting into the game are just adding to the squeeze. Like a bunch of clowns all getting into the same tiny car and not realizing until someones foot is in their back that it wasn't a good idea. ;)

31. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    31   8:31pm Mon 5 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says I bought in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and I'm in escrow on one with a pending offer on another in 2012. I don't need the return of any housing fraud, in fact I don't even need the price of real estate to increase. Ever! Rents alone justify these homes so I bought them. I gave IWOG alot of hell 1.5 to 2 years ago on here for his bottom call. But then something happened here in Phoenix: ALL of the data I can measure started to improve. Supply, down like crazy, demand up like crazy, homes going into foreclosure dropped by over 50%... listing prices stabalized. So, I started buying and buying. Cash purchases that paid over 10% returns with 1 months vacancy, and all expenses figured in. Like IWOG, I had to say, "at these rental rates, who the hell cares if prices ever come up?" nevertheless, prices are increasing in Phoenix... So, "LMAO" at Iwog all you want, when you are making 10% total return, and much higher cash on cash, who gives a crap if prices drop 1.8%? seriously, thats less than 2 months rent on my properties...