Please try to ignore all threads with hyperbolous sounding titles like:
"Chinese are buying up all the real estate in the Bay Area"
and
"Palo Alto prices up, eventually spreading to rest of Bay Area".
These are just realtor trolls, trying to use scare tactics to shore up some more business. When will they realize that their immature coercion has long been passé, and is no longer effective around here.
Watch
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I linked a couple of more examples above. This seems to be a growing trend.
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The funny thing is when I said "wrong", I then posted a bunch of examples proving you were wrong.
When you said "wrong", you posted nothing then claimed you were right anyway.
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NTR is almost ready for my Ignore list, along with AngryCloud, AngryDan, and StonedArtimusMaxtor.
Of course, NTR has changed his/her name roughly every 24 hours for the past week, so maybe the Ignore option won't work unless Patrick stops allowing users to constantly change names.
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Never Trust Realtors says:
"WRONG again.
The security interest exists into perpetuity until it is satisfied."
NTR, under your theory, how is the security interest established as being perfected?
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wthrfrk80 says
I can imagine. Each of the major banks have a huge inventory of properties. The more they foreclose on the larger that inventory grows. There are two forces at work with the banks. On one hand they want to unload this shadow inventory, but on the other they have to watch the rate of unloading because there are not that many sales out there and if they release too many they will be in effect devaluing their inventory. That is the push/pull situation they find themselves. The larger that inventory gets the worse the problem gets for them.
By not foreclosing on people they at least get someone still living in the house and doing the upkeep in most situations. People even pay the property tax while not paying the mortgage. Better to have only the bank breathing down their backs. So, if the banks know the tap is only on drip they would rather slow down the backlog. Rent is the least of their worries. If you do mark-to-market on the inventory most banks are pretty much worthless and they know that. Now it is a shell game.
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The thing with many recent immigrants/new citizens is that they are still willing to buy a house at extreme prices and not spend money on anything else. Just work and pour the money into the mortgage.
Not many other folks are still willing to do that. We will have to wait and see how this goes.
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dunnross says
Here here...
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lostand confused says
Could you say the same for immigrants from decades past. Perhaps it not immigrants but rather migrants from the east coast.. Connecticut, New Jersey, New York. I certainly have seen and spoken to lots of new people here from the east coast.
And many wrongly believe CA prices have always been higher.
For realtors... "the end justify the means".
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wthrfrk80 says
I actually think it has never been an easier time "to know" where we are headed. Huge shadow inventory, very low real buyers, stagnant income levels, massive unemployment, historically huge deficits and debt, currency debasement, etc. etc. There is not one positive thing in this country that would contribute to a bull market in housing. At best we skip along avoiding another crash while our currency and savings go to hell. It is really just a transfer of wealth that is happening between two groups. The reasonable savers and greedy over-leveraged risk takers. Fairness gets kicked in the face in today's economy.
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Renting for Half the Costs posts a parody and then the parody follows it up by posting the exact same thing.
Lulz.
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Santa Cruz, CA
It's not complex. Check zillow and see foreclosures v regular sales. The ratio of foreclosures keeps RISING. The median price each year keeps FALLING. You even see foreclosures rising in Carmel for god's sake.
If people are unemployed how can they save up a down payment? If they have crummy jobs how can they save up the down? If they are broke, how can they qualify for a $400K mortgage? If they studied Chicana studies at UCSC, how can they qualify for this mortgage?
I see them at Trader Joes. I look around the crowd shuffling around in there. Maybe one person in the store has the down payment for a house in his 401K. He's gonna be asked to make a fatal decision by some female someday.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Martin Weiss has been screaming about savers getting kicked in the teeth at the expense of debtors for years.
Our economy has changed, unfortunately.
And as for fairness, I don't think it ever truly existed.
Here's an idea. If we want the old fashioned Democratic party back with a controlled economy protecting our markets like it did in the fifties and sixties, tell the Dems to get rid of the hard left social issues folks (filth and trash, queers, feminists, emotionally unstable personalities, people with axes to grind, environmentalists, weirdo academics running around in little beards and turtleneck sweaters riding their bikes) and just focus on getting the economy back on track. I hate to say this as a Republican but I think that would really work.
They'll never do it. Why? Because the Democratic party itself is like a grease trap in a restaurant. It collects things no one wants to deal with it. The people I mentioned above ARE the party and that's why it always seems to self destruct. That's why the Republican conventions always look like small town America and the Democratic conventions always look like the bar scene from Star Wars.
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clambo says
Well, don't major in Chicana Studies. Don't major in Communication, Philosophy, History, Sociology or (God forbid) Social Work either.
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clambo says
Classic! Like +1.
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rootvg says
Yep. That's how we got the "Reagan Democrats" and the end of the New Deal Coalition. And so now we're heading back to the Robber Baron Days of a century ago. If we're not already there now.
Not that the Republican party is much better. They've been hijacked by Taliban wannabe's who think our problems are divine punishment from God rather than a fucked up economic policy.
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gregpfielding says
bill is one of the few people that make decent predictions - probably because he bases it on data and his ability to see long term trends.
having said that, there's a decent chance his bottom call is early. this housing bust is like no other.
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Hysteresis says
Bubble preceding this bust was just unique,hence the bust will be unique. With govt. intervention it could drag on for years. We have created phenominal debt and hence the suffering.
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bubblesitter says
The bust between 2006 and 2009 was unique and there have been no parallels in American history.
Asking for another post-bust housing crash just to ram home the unique requirement doesn't make a lot of sense.
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iwog says
Haha. 300% gain up to 2006 has hardly corrected. Bust still continues....
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iwog says
The bust must and will continue for the following reasons:
1. Private debt has not fallen to pre-bubble levels.
2. House ownership rate is nowhere near the levels it was prior to the bubble.
3. People still think that housing is a great investment.
4. Neither the public nor the gov't has learned anything during the bust.
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5. Fortress hasn't yet fallen.
6. Prices are still too high, across the board.
7. Interest rates are still too low.
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You people make this too easy.
dunnross says
So what? How come there's a requirement that private debt fall to pre-bubble levels? We had a bear real estate market in the mid 90s and private debt grew the entire time.
dunnross says
Again so what? What does house ownership rate have to do with the price of real estate when there are billionaires on earth who could afford to buy entire states?
dunnross says
It can be a great investment and I've done very well with it.
dunnross says
This isn't a reason, this is simply your silly conclusion that you're going to leave unsupported. No one learned anything because.....you say so. Got it!
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All of iwog's responses to my comments just prove how ignorant he really is, and, not only disprove what I said, but, support my thesis even more. In fact, for the best thing iwog can do right now, is simply to shut his mouth, but, knowing him, he will continue to discredit himself, by digging this ditch even farther. A lot of what he is saying now, sounds just like what people were saying back in 2007: debt doesn't matter, record high house ownership rate doesn't matter, sentiment doesn't matter. Just blind belief is what matters to iwog and his kind.
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dodgerfanjohn says
I didn't know there was narration on this site. Cool.
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iwog says
I did my best investment move in my lifetime by shorting the real estate builders. That proves nothing buy I had good sense and timing. It doesn't mean the play will work forever, just like your long play on real estate might not work forever. You say "so what" to any counter argument to your thinking and this comment is a big "so what". Your experiences are not indicative of the average real estate buyer. You work in the industry and have the time and knowledge to squeak out some good purchase deals. Most of us just buy a house to live in and have our time and energy directed somewhere else.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Absolutely false. I say "so what" to a counter argument that isn't a counter argument.
Dunnross: "The bust will continue because private debt hasn't fallen to pre-bubble levels."
How is this an argument for further declines in the housing market? You probably don't know this, but dunnross thinks the housing bubble started in the 1970s. He really does! This means if you break down his assertion, (it's still not an argument) it reads like this:
Dunnross: "The bust will continue because private debt hasn't fallen to what it was in 1976."
If I was to actually construct an argument on this premise, it would go like this and sound quite ludicrous:
"The housing crash will continue because until private debt reaches a teeny tiny fraction of what it is today, (or even what it was in 1985) the market will not have enough money for A which will result in B which will result in further declines in the housing market."
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Yes they are. Anyone who bought rental real estate from 2009 onward has seen:
1. rising rents
2. falling interest rates
3. nearly flat home values
I would guess that almost anyone who bought rental real estate in 2009 is very happy right now.
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iwog says
4. Loss of equity.
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bubblesitter says
About .006-.01 per year. That's what Case-Shiller is reporting.
It's a fraction of my principle pay-down.
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iwog says
It's okay. Live with the numbers you are satisfied with it -for you it is flat anyways. Only you can go the length of justifying the purchase of eroding equity property. For you anything going down below 10% to 12% is okay. Is that right? Do your math again.
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bubblesitter says
I have no fricken clue what point you're trying to make. If positive income flow exceeds loss of equity from a falling housing market, it's still a win.
The "length of justifying the purchase of eroding equity property" is really nothing more than a 3rd grade math problem.
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iwog says
Now that loss of equity,let's say 1.8%(as per CS) every year for 10 more years,how much does it come to? How much can you make by investing that money somewhere else for 30 years? You'd be surprised. Yeah,try that on a 500K mortgage. :)
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iwog says
1. I pay less now per sqft than anytime I have lived in the bay area since 1997.
2. Yup, and they will most likely continue to fall
3. nearly (as in falling you mean). Flat is only a hope going forward IMHO.
I could of bought in 2009 and didn't and am over joyed I didn't. I am sure I am not alone here either.
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bubblesitter says
Iwog's math:
500k * 1.10 = 550K (profit! I knew it!)
500k * 1.00 = 500K (hmm, flat, that is okay I got the rent money. Profit!)
500k * 0.90 = 450K (loss? Wait, I got rent. Oh, and I can refi and still be cash postive)
500k * 0.80 = 400K (major loss? Crap. Increase rents. What? tenants leave. I'm screwed. Wait, there are handouts to be had. I'll be in the lineup. Flat again! Yahh)
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Corona, CA
Whats the bottom line:
1) 15% real unemployment and 25% underemployment in California.
2) Job market getting worse or, in the best case scenario, its stabilizing but not keeping up with population growth.
3) More unemployed individuals are falling off these reports since they dont collect unemployment. The government ignores these individuals - but they are part of the problem.
4) More business is leaving California because of expensive anti business policies.
5) Real inflation is going up (excluding home prices since the government excludes homes prices).
6) Real wages are going down. In fact our real wages are back to 1990 levels in this state alone.
7) City's are going bankrupt or approaching bankruptcy because they are on the hook to union employees for benefit payments they cannot make, even in the best of times.
Yet people like Iwog are telling me that right now is the time to buy. My family members/friends tell me the same thing since 7 of them are realtors. Realtors are not to be trusted. They have a conflict of interest - their commission is based on the highest price.
You want proof that the housing market is in a coma, look at all the potential buyers that choose to rent instead of buy. In my area (Southern California), I know so many of them. They have the downpayment to buy today, they have the job, the credit score and financial paperwork to boot. However, they also have one thing that Iwog and other realtors fear - a brain.
For a moment, lets assume that Iwog and his cohorts are correct we have hit a bottom. What is the likelihood that home prices will increase in the next 5 years? All the problems I mentioned are systemic not economical. It means the the system in California and the US is broken and it will take 10 years to fix.
So to Iwog and other realtors who put families into debt and homes they cant afford, I say go and pound sand. Your analysis is biased and you have hidden agendas.
You want links or proof, look it up yourself.
.....and thats the bottom line.
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kashif313 says
I have. And I have posted them. Only they refute your "facts".
That's the bottom line.......
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Why? Prices were lower in 2009, at least during the second quarter. How can you be over joyed when prices are almost identical AND you've lost three years worth of rent payments? Explain it to me.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
I don't even know what any of this means. Nationwide, prices have fallen 1.8% over three years. Why in hell are you using 10% and 20% in your examples? Tenants leave? Rents are soaring and demand keeps growing because new construction is near record lows. How about a serious analysis?
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Oakland, CA
From that graph it looks like the high tier is still on an uward trend
If your buying in the low tier maybe prices noware the same as 2009
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toothfairy says
The market is essentially flat and has been flat since 2009. 1-2% higher or lower is meaningless when talking about individual properties.