Please try to ignore all threads with hyperbolous sounding titles like:
"Chinese are buying up all the real estate in the Bay Area"
and
"Palo Alto prices up, eventually spreading to rest of Bay Area".
These are just realtor trolls, trying to use scare tactics to shore up some more business. When will they realize that their immature coercion has long been passé, and is no longer effective around here.
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Oakland, CA
Your Chart says the high tier has gone from 130 to 140 since 09 which is more like 10%
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San Jose, CA
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iwog says
Iwog makes it really easy to explain. By buying in 2009 he lost 3 years of appreciation in gold, which is the only honest money. Gold is up over 200%, while his RE investment is down over 60% in terms of gold currency. By renting and keeping my down-payment money in gold, I have only avoided paying interest, maintenance, taxes, I have multiplied my purchasing power many times, relative to iwog's lousy RE investment, which keeps losing purchasing power. In 2009, when iwog bought his house, he could buy 100,000 gallons of gas with his purchase. Now, can't even buy 40,000 gallons of gas. He can't buy the same amount of food either. He can buy a lot more houses, but, unfortunately, he has chosen to sink his money into RE, wanting to catch a falling knife, and now, he has frozen his assets in real estate, which is like dead capital hanging over him like the Sword of Democles, sinking day by day, losing money, losing equity, while, our friend iwog is shaking in his pants, horrified to the thought that his only tenant might lose his job, and not be able to come up with the rent payment. Meanwhile, the old, decrepit house which he bought, is losing equity, and becoming more and more delapedated, in dire need of repair - old rusty plumbing, heating system, leaky roof and a window with a bullet hole in it: you see, since iwog wanted to optimize his rent/PITI return, he chose to buy in the concord ghetto, the dumps of the real estate market. Now he has heroin dealers and prostitutes camping on his front steps. Poor iwog. Does anyone here want to make a donation and bail iwog out of this mess?
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Simi Valley, CA
dunnross says
good catch. i knew they would try to resort to these dirty tactics.
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Santa Cruz, CA
I bought a bunch of AAPL in 2009 and I'm happy with being up about 650%, and my stock funds up about 100%, but WTF, it's only money right?
Buying a rental around where I live means having tenants who are 1. Mexican illegals 2. sec. 8 weirdos 3. SSI nuts on disability (#2) 4. University students 5.assorted kooks, freaks, etc who want to fuck you out of the rent because you are the evil 1% rich.
My other dough is not in a checking account but Vanguard Bond funds, my second largest is High Yield Corporate Bond fund and it pays 6%+.
If you were rich, buying rental property is a waste of your life. If you aren't rich, you are tethering yourself to an asset that has pros and cons.
My finest "investment" so far was agreeing to take that business trip with my client to China. What was the reward? The food and the CHICKS!
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Saint George, UT
elliemae's website
Beware of realtors submitting links to their sites that include charts about how awesome the sales are in their particular area.
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clambo says
Maybe you should consider moving to a nicer area?
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dunnross says
I think that comparing with gold is not a proper argument. Our econmy is not based on gold currency. The proper comparison is cash in the bank.
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thomas.wong1986 says
CA in general hasn't always been higher but northern CA, at least in our lifetime, has. Our customer engineer in Pasadena told me ten years ago that IBM always has job openings in SF/SJ that go unfilled. Most people cannot afford to live here.
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Pacifica, CA
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iwog says
Never Trust Realtors says
Never Trust Realtors says
I wish you guys could express differing opinions without fighting with each other. It just detracts from the points you are making. it is the personalizing all of it that seem like trolling.
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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toothfairy says
That's a 10% increase dude. I doubt any buyer is going to complain.
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rootvg says
Many employers cannot afford to hire here.
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dunnross says
I had plenty of gold. Ever hear the phrase "don't put all your eggs in one basket"? I sold late last year when it hit $1900.
How much have you lost in gold holding it into 2012?
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iwog says
And you expect us to believe that you sold it at the top. If you are so good, then show me a link, like mine, where you sold you real-estate at the top of the market in 2006 and bought gold with the money.
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dunnross says
Boooh! That ain't gonna happen. :)
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dunnross says
bubblesitter says
When are you numbnuts going to realize that I'm not like you?
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1012840
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1020565
dunnross says
I wasn't here in 2006.
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iwog says
Hey, you stole that word from Roberto. :)
I can attest to you selling gold at $1,900, but they are not gonna believe me. To be honest, you're not very smart compared to dunross. He claimed to sold his house in 2006, and guess what he does with his money afterward? Exactly, he bought gold. Now he predicts that home prices in the the Bay Area will drop to 1975 level in nominal term.
Given his track record, I will have to side with him on his prediction. I'm just a little surprise that no hedge fund manager nor Goldman Sachs offered him a 7 to 8 figure salary yet. Man, those guys are missing out on a fantastic talent. Well, it's their loss.
Cheers. :)
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E-man says
I agree with you. I keep bugging him for stock picks but so far he's playing coy.
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Saint George, UT
elliemae's website
dunnross says
While you're at it, Iwog, please post your name, address, wife's information and where your children attend school. Phone numbers would be helpful, along with social security numbers, dates of birth and height/weight.
Oh - and while you're proving what you bought & sold, make sure that the receipts are legible and have an account number.
Thanks in advance.
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elliemae says
I am not sure how much truth is in Iwog's comments but he claims to be an RE investor and it is hard for me to believe he did not buy any property from 2000 to 2006 and now he claims to be buying since 2008 and claims that values have not gone down. Seriously? A property bought in 2008 and has not lost value? He wants us to believe in his crap.
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iwog says
I like how you keep using nominal prices. There has been inflation. Got to love Iwog statistics. On the other hand I totally agree with you, cash flow is all that matters. If the cash flow exceeds the mortgage who cares? Why don't these idiots include cash flow after the house is paid off as part of the investment value? I use 15 year mortgages with very slightly positive cash flow so I get into paid off cash flow as fast as possible. My equity is increasing a lot faster than any drop in value, even taking into account inflation. What about the 20+ years of rental income after the house is paid off? That would be about 15-20k a year net on a 100-120k THAT THE TENANTS PAID, on each of my properties. Oh yea that stuff, DUH. Why in the world is everyone convinced you can only make money with capital appreciation? For my 20-30k down payment I will see 400k+ over 35 years if the house doesn't increase in value at all. I can live with that.
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Oakland, CA
Maybe just me but it seems like most of the scare tactics are coming from people telling me not to buy a house. who are they?
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San Jose, CA
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Bob,
So what you're saying is, your initial $20-$30k investment in real estate will give you over $400k return in 35 years, and that doesn't even factor in appreciation? How can that be? I thought real estate only goes up 3-4% per year while stocks return 7-8%.
Your math must be fuzzy. Hope you can enlighten us. ;)
Ok, ok.... Just in case you couldn't tell I was being sarcastic. :)
Bank just approved one more deal for us. Pkennedy decided to pass on this deal so I kept it for myself. It was a good deal, not a fantastic one, 85% FMV. We have a couple more in the works, a small one & a relatively big one. He's planning to retire in 2 years if we can strike the big one. As long as he promises to buy us airfare tickets to visit him & his family at his vacation home once a year, I'll work extra hard to get that deal closed. Can't say much since the deal is not locked in yet. Fingers crossed.
Hope all is well with you & your family.
Cheers. :)
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bob2356 says
Inflation isn't relevant to someone buying a home with a mortgage, ESPECIALLY as interest rates are falling.
In a falling interest rate environment, a person actually gains value from inflation because the tiny loss on the down payment is more than made up for by the depreciation in principle due to falling interest costs.
I'm going to say something here that sounds terribly elitist, but it's absolutely true and it was a lesson I had to learn myself. People get rich because they understand the relationship between capital value, the cost of money, and inflation. Understanding what is really happening to your financed investment is critical to the decision making process, and you're either going to get totally screwed or you're going to miss out on the deal of a lifetime if you only look at half the equation.
From the standpoint of a pure emotionless capitalist pig, a real estate investor wants inflation! It's the best of all worlds. Rents go up, the payoff cost of your debt goes down, and most of your costs are fixed. (especially in California)
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bubblesitter says
I've only been a real estate investor since 2008 and prior to about 2000 I was too poor to buy more than my personal residence. As for why I didn't buy real estate during the bubble, that's a no brainer. I remember around 2005 my brother and I were brainstorming a way to short real estate. We weren't educated enough to know about credit default swaps so we just stayed out.
I never said I didn't lose money on the house I bought in 2008. In fact I've probably taken at least a $60,000 hit on a home that's only worth $250,000. If you're going to represent my investment history, please get it correct.
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dunross,
Whether iwog is telling the truth or lying, whether he is right or wrong, do you really think it matters in the overall scheme of things?
You're spending way too much time on a blog reacting to iwog and "proving him wrong".
A blog is for entertainment and fun. If it's fun to be like that so frequently then you might consider at some point it's crossing the line from entertainment to an unhealthy obsession.
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B.A.C.A.H. says
And what would the entertainment value of this blog be without iwog's consistent pontifications and people like me who are ready to jump in and question his dogmatic claims?
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iwog says
By selling, you took a short-term profit, but you will miss the best part of the bubble. All the easy money to be made in the gold market are still ahead of us.
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dunnross says
It's easy enough to just scroll past them and ignore them. I could put him on ignore but then sometimes he has some gems like his post earlier today about a "good" Reator®.
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iwog says
Still you won't admit that you are loosing,correct? Come on now. How much that 60K would fetch over 30 years,if you had invested smartly out of RE? That's not it - 60K is just a part of loss,you could loose more for years to come. :)
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bubblesitter,
it is fun to blog.
What fun is there in making someone prove himself wrong to lose his face or whatever?
We got enough of that thing going on in the national divide.
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Lafayette, CA
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bubblesitter says
Are you talking about that single house? If I sold it today I would be losing. I bought too early and it has lost about 20%. That is mitigated by the fact that even at 100% financing, it's still has positive cash flow and principle pay-down worth around $14,000.
Am I worried? Hell no. I would have done better had I waited, but in the long run this home will be very profitable and it's only one out of a growing portfolio.
I bought this before I learned the delights of foreclosure auctions.
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San Jose, CA
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dunnross says
U could be right, but u could be wrong about the gold bubble. If iwog decides to buy gold back right now, he had locked in $200/oz profit while u watch some of your gain evaporated. Why is it so hard to give a man some credit for making the right call?
Iwog has the balls to post on here what he buys & sells. We all know he lost $50k on a gold bet almost 2 years ago. At the same time, we know he made $136k on an oil option about 4 year ago.
Why don't u post what u buy & sell on here so we all can track it? U will have bragging right if u make more right calls than wrong ones. Anyone can claim to make the right call in hindsight.
With that said, I bought 500 shares of DXD a couple of days ago at $13.48. I intend to take profit when the DOW drops to 12,300-12,400. I will take my loss if the DOW goes above 13,200.
So what's your hot pick for now?
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San Jose, CA
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E-man says
Problem is, he won't buy it.
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Hahahahahahahahahahaha! You could read about these in trade journals. Hahahahahahahahahahaha!
iwog says
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Pleasanton, CA
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iwog says
Not at all true based on my own pounding the pavement at open houses for the last 3 years. I see houses priced in the BA now much lower than 3 years ago. I couldn't afford anything in Los Altos in 2009, now I have multiple options if I wanted to pull the trigger. You stick to your graph and I'll stick to my foot work.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
My foot work contradicts your foot work. I've bought 9 properties since 2008. I can't repeat any of them in 2012 because prices are higher.
However even after buying homes, I still wouldn't trust my tiny sample over Case Shiller. That would be silly.
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Pleasanton, CA
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Tim Aurora says
You hold cash then and me and Dunross will hold gold. Did you look at our debt lately. At this point we are going to run out of ink for the printing press before we flush out the foreclosure problem. Buy something to hold value, while everything else is losing it. Tulips are a better investment than housing right now.
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Pleasanton, CA
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iwog says
That is where we differ. I'll always trust my sample over anything. What do I care about full BA results. I know where I want to buy. I am only interested in that area. I have only seen it go down since 2007. There is variations in the number of houses on the market, but in terms of the pricing, it has continue to soften. Believe me, if I see things get stable or start to rise then I would be a buyer. I am not, though, and I am not alone. I know many people in my shoes. They have great jobs, more than enough for the down payment on a BA home, but are renting. We talk at least once a week and share our views. From our group only one person is thinking about buying in the next year. That is your market. You need to convince people like me. And currently I have no reason to believe any different than I see for myself. Softness in sales, and softness in prices.
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Oakland, CA
I posted the housing vs gold chart the other day. If gold is going up then housing is going up even more. Which makes sense with commodities inflation building costs will go thru the roof.
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Pleasanton, CA
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If you are really saying that buying a house in the BA in 2009 was a great idea because you think it stayed flat, then you are mistaken. All you had to do was put that down payment in gold or any reasonable stock for that matter.
http://money.cnn.com/2012/03/11/markets/sunday_lookahead/index.htm?iid=Lead
Clip taken from the above site.
"The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have more than doubled in value from bear market lows on March 9, 2009. And the Dow is up more than 97%."
You can be happy that you missed 2x of your money, but I wouldn't be. Now I have twice the down payment and houses are cheaper. It doesn't matter what you say to this, cause my position is all I care about. You keep selling to the prey, and I'll keep gaining the advantage until I feel the tide has changed.