WatchPlease try to ignore all threads with hyperbolous sounding titles like:
"Chinese are buying up all the real estate in the Bay Area"
and
"Palo Alto prices up, eventually spreading to rest of Bay Area".
These are just realtor trolls, trying to use scare tactics to shore up some more business. When will they realize that their immature coercion has long been passé, and is no longer effective around here.
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Pleasanton, CA
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toothfairy says
Houses are not made of gold. ;)
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E-man says
BRCM (long on 1000)
PVG (long on 2000) Sell only when it equals a BA home. ;)
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iwog says
First, I have been renting for at least 2k less a month than if I had bought. That has grown my savings considerably. On top of an extra 2k per month, I have made pretty solid gains on stocks and gold over that time. All that would not have been possible sitting on a home that is not even keeping up with inflation. I was in an okay position to buy in 2009, but now three years later I am in a much stronger position. They are not even comparable and I don't see things changing. The same reason why I didn't buy in 2009 still exists. There is no reason for housing to appreciate. Not one. Behind every cheering number in the economy is a room full of smoke and mirrors IMHO. The truth is being hidden from us so we slowly let time help us out of the problem. Time really is our only weapon we have left.
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iwog says
were you not saying for the past year we are flat ?
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San Jose, CA
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toothfairy says
More lessons to learn for all you housing bulls out there:
1. Gold is not a commodity. It's currency. Just because our gov't says it isn't, doesn't make it not a currency. Gold is the only honest money, so the FED can lie all they want, gold will still be money.
2. If the FED could make the gold price drop, they would have done it long time ago.
3. We are now in K-winter which is good for gold, not so much for commodities. Gold is at, or close to all-time high, where most commodities are nowhere close to the high achieved back in 2008.
4. Housing prices will not go up in inflation. In fact, inflation will kill housing, because your pay check will be spent on food and gas, not housing, and, also because interest rates will go up faster than wages.
5. This isn't like 1991 or 1979, so don't compare it to that. This is more like 1930 which you know nothing about, because you don't know anyone who lived back then.
6. Housing is not an investment. It's just a shelter.
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dunnross says
Actually, that is exactly what it means.
dunnross says
So, you can only learn history from people who lived it? That's unfortunate. I guess we can fire a lot of history teachers then.
dunnross says
Nope--it is both.
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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thomas.wong1986 says
I also said that a sales index doesn't tell the whole story.
In 2009 there were about 4 homes for sale on my street at any given time with several pending foreclosure sales.
Today there are zero homes for sale on my street and zero pending foreclosure sales.
I would trade the 2009 market for the 2010, 2011, and 2012 market in an instant. It's a no brainer. The bottom for starter homes in Concord was early 2009 no matter what the market numbers say because the quality and quantity of homes being sold today suck.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
I would guess that you represent less than 1% of the population renting a home right now in the United States. Maybe even less. This is hardly an argument. I have tenants renting a 4br, 2ba home right now who are paying $2000 per month in rent. My PITI is $1100.
RentingForHalfTheCost says
This is a huge fallacy. Obviously staying out of the real estate market was the right thing to do from 2006 to 2009. If that money was in the stock market, you got slaughtered. Most people panicked and sold near the bottom. Many of them were posting to this board when it happened.
Everything sounds reasonable in hindsight, but investing for the unknown future doesn't work that way.
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iwog says
I know,I know,competition has become intense for flipper/investors,but it has nothing to do with general direction of home prices,and they are going DOWN.
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iwog says
Welcome to the world of hidden inventory. Do some hard footwork - go knocking,door to door to find out if the homeowner has stopped paying for his mortgage.
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iwog says
If that was the case then about 80% of the people in my friends circle are in that 1%. I seriously doubt that. All of my friends renting in the BA are all aware that it would cost them considerably more to own the same house. I was at a function this weekend and a conversation started about renting/buying. Out of the group of 20 adults about half own in Palo Alto and it was the first time I have heard existing owners say now renting is a much better option. They are owners! Your numbers and assumptions are polluted with your bias towards you own accounts. I'm sure I am biased as well, because I want things to keep getting softer. But, I am also in fear of missing the turn-around when it happens. So, I think that makes my biasing a little more balanced. I am pulled in both directions, not just one like you. ;)
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iwog says
If in fallacy you really mean "Fact". Then I understand your point. The reason why stocks/gold/etc. has preformed well is because of housing. Smart money moves. It has correctly moved away from housing. Cheer all you want. It is still moving away. Sales are dead, not because of fierce competition or rising prices. It is dead because of defensive banks, struggling families, little to no savings, etc. etc. Call up a builder and ask for all sub-zero appliances and a pool in the backyard and you will pay the posted price. You would make the agents day, because they haven't seen a real buyer in months. ;)
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iwog says
It would be interesting if someone studied if the sellers at the bottom where the same people who bought housing at the top. Same fear response mechanism. "Get rich quick" is a fallacy. If you fear equities then you should really fear housing. Equities actually do something (make products and services) whereas houses just sit and rot while draining your savings. On a scale of fear I would assign a 4 to equities and a 8 to housing. That seems like the correct balance to me. YMMV
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bubblesitter says
Ain't that the truth. No one can sell, because they have nothing to sell. Lack of sales is not a good thing. It is like the plates not moving for a few years. Something is building up, and it isn't Iwog's home equity...
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
I should say Iwog's home equity..but the negative one,sinking from below the rent check. LOL.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
RentingForHalfTheCost says
Why do you keep posting this? Sales are up and have been rising for 3 months at least. Most people agree that it has been a good start to 2012.
Are you seeing different info than I am or are you just making shit up?
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Oakland, CA
dunnross says
We'll see how it plays out over the next few years. I feel fairly comfortable being in the Warren Buffet camp.
I might even buy some gold just for kicks, but only with money I can afford to lose.
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toothfairy says
Your okay with being in the "I was dead wrong" camp? Also, do you have a 5 billion dollar bet on Band of America (aka foreclosure holding company)? Warren was dead wrong and can be dead wrong for a few more years and still smile. I don't have that privilege. If I bought a 1million+ home now, then lost my job, on top of another 10-15% drop over the next two years, then pretty much the last 10 years of savings would be poof, gone! Never to return. Warren can lose 5 billion and still have too much money. Completely different game.
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Oakland, CA
as far as I'm concerned you lose your downpayment the moment you buy. What you have in return is a million dollar house that may go up and down in value with the market.
So it's not like your savings is lost into thin air, it enabled you to buy a million dollar house which you couldn't have done without saving for 10 years.
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tatupu70 says
For us, housing is shelter AND an investment vehicle because of our tax problem. I know that doesn't set well with people here but that's how it is.
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toothfairy says
Or a 800K home that you owe 800K on, and are now unemployed. I'd rather keep my 200K and let others take that risk for now. Add another 2 years onto the 10 and I save more and buy for less. That matters to me.
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Los Angeles, CA
Iwog, how come we are the only ones that post examples of what we are talking about?
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SubOink says
I think some people find the truth to be a great inconvenience.
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Darrell In Phoenix says
Wrong wording, again.
You mean, why are we the only ones that PRESENT the truth about housing from what we find. These are not opinions but facts anybody and everybody is welcome to look up. Take a stroll in whatever neighborhood you live in and look at prices and watch how they develop.
You guys on the other hand spread nothing but your wishful opinions. No backup for anything you claim.
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First off RentforHalf, just a few's months ago, you were crowing about a cheap rental in Palo Alto on craigslist. Many of us noted that it was a fraudulent post, it took you how many phone calls to figure that out? If you feel the Los Altos market is that soft compared to 2007, feel free to post some more listings for us to look at.
Housing may not be the best investment right now, heck it could be below average at this time but it's just disingenuous to state that it's not an investment. I'm sure I can make 120k (deducting the 6%) on my purchase from earlier this year. There's a unit that is 30% smaller, on the noisier side of the building, with a much smaller patio that has closed for 50k over my purchase price. Certain neighborhoods in SF are just that frothy.
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David Losh's website
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DukeLaw says
You guys almost had me agreeing that since 2008 there was money to be made in the housing market until I ready the word frothy in the DukeLaw comment.
When you say frothy you mean sales hype.
There is another idiot buying property every minute. Just because a bigger idiot than the last one purchases a property doesn't make property a good deal.
The only good deal is one where you can buy, and sell it for a profit.
The whole point is that Real Estate is now a volitile investment filled with uncertainty depending on how you look at it.
Frothy is this years sales line, last year it was historically low interest rates, low inventory.
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iwog says
If that house is in Lafayette it is a bargain to rent. If it were in Antioch it would be overpriced.
Looking at Zillows new preforeclosure map I see a lot of houses stuck in the pipeline. In Contra Costa County there are 1795 houses for sale, 751 foreclosed homes and 5417 homes in preforeclosure. THere are a lot of overpriced houses whose mortgage is not being paid.
I see rents going up. "Investors" are buying cheap and renting dear. They brag about how they are making more than double piti AND building equity.
The poor renters pay more. The first time home buyers are outbid by cash. The bankers are colluding to forestall collapse.
The pressure is building. It has to break soon.
Now, cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do you know good,
When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move.
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David Losh says
The whole point is that real estate is a place to live.
We dislike realtors because they have squoze out as much money as they can and have now left us with an overpriced house and a future promised away to the bank.
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David Losh's website
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The Professor says
In 2006 I bought a house. All economic indication were that we would see massive inflation. I'm not the only one that felt that as oil began to climb it was a good indication that it was a good time to take on debt.
A lot changed in that year, and we sold that house, and another before July 2007 when all we retained was the family home.
So I don't fault Real Estate agents as much as I fault the government, and the banks who were making the loans.
The bank loan is supposed to be backed by the asset value. I may not have seen a crash coming as quickly, but banks surely did. There is no way in hind sight that banks, lenders, and investors, who had global perspective, could have not known we had an over heated market place.
I blame the bank loan process that lent money far in excess of property value.
If our foreclosure system were allowed to function properly, we wouldn't be having this mess.
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David Losh says
I agree. RE agents were as ignorant as the rest of us.
But they still got their commision.
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The Professor says
i doubt you will find the rest of us.. creating fictitious bidders.
Of course RE agents can create as many fake offers they like and repeat the cycle.
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David Losh's website
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thomaswong.1986 says
You can't create a ficticious bidder on a property.
Where do you get that?
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Los Angeles, CA
David Losh says
"We have 13 competing bids sir. Please submit your best and final by eow tommorow."
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David Losh's website
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dodgerfanjohn says
Your best, and final is always what you originally thought, and never get yourself into a multiple offer situation.
Multiple offers mean wait for the market to cool off.
The point is that an agent can't arbitrarily say there are other offers, without having those offers in hand.
The next time that happens to you ask to see the other offers before you escalate, because you are willing to go highest, and best offer.
The problem with amatuers is they get weeded out of the market place. If I'm the agent with a buyer I'm going to want the agent to produce other offers, if I were ever to encourage any buyer to go into a multiple offer situation, which I wouldn't.
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David Losh's website
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Where do you guys get this kind of phantom offer stuff from anyway?
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Darrell In Phoenix says
That's not an answer because you don't have one. You're speculating that inexperienced agents will say anything to get a Real Estate commission. It does happen, but those agents leave the business because other agents won't do business with them.
Your reputation, as an agent, in the Real Estate community is what gets more transactions.
That is the problem with agency, any one can join, but only a few survive.
Are you doing business with an agent that is in the business for the long haul, or a newbie?
You, as the buyer, or seller still need to get a deal, so you should pick an agent on ability rather than likability.
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Darrell In Phoenix says
I guess you are trying to say that this phantom offer thing is an industry standard for used house sales people, I guess, because you aren't saying anything.
The truth is that is one of the most debunked illusions people have about used house sales people. Any agent can ask to see the highest, and best, or the volume of offers.
The very, very sad truth is that agents do write multiple offers on properties.
Writing a highest, and best offer has to be the stupidest thing any agent can get involved with, but they do it, usually at the buyer's insistence.
There are some agents that encourage the multiple offer situation because it creates urgency.
But the very, very sad truth is agents do write into multiple offer situations, and buyers, and sellers go along with that.
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Los Angeles, CA
Darrell In Phoenix says
Please post your definition for "honest question"
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David Losh's website
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Darrell In Phoenix says
I guess we are in a he said, she said situation.
I've been in the business of Real Estate a long time, and what I know is that it is sad we have multiple offers, but they do really happen.
Now if you are talking short sales, that is an industry standard to have the loss mitigator collect offers to counter at highest, and best. Those are always situations to walk away from.
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The Professor says
Actually, RE agents lost all of their commission and more in RE investment this last round. Some had to file BK to discharge their debt. Some even lost their spouse.
Karma is a bitch.