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Is it time to SHORT AAPL and Tech?

By suziclue   Follow   Sun, 11 Mar 2012, 1:03am   26,662 views   238 comments
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Been searching around and talking to other investors in chat rooms and there's a growing number of folks thinking it's a good time to start shorting Apple. They may have reached their peak and the decline is beginning. A recent article from Jin Yee states that she's one of those that believe it's a good time to start looking into shorting Apple also.

source: http://www.hotstockstobuy.com/2012/03/the-new-ipad-first-day-sales-report/

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1. Vicente Follow Befriend (8) 204 threads 4,411 comments Davis, CA

   39   10:15pm Wed 14 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   treatmentreport says That's why I am questioning if there are other factors involved that people are not looking at such as the run up in student debt of 500B in the last three years. I take your point that the runup seems suspect. Is it WebVan or is it something more substantial? Only time will tell. As I said before your student debt idea lacks merit if I had to pin it on something it'd be this is the "IT" stock, the way Cisco was in the late 90's. Unfortunately I didn't use stop sells on CSCO and held it stubbornly thinking it'd come back, until I eventually recognized defeat and took my losses like a man. Learned that lesson. Or you could follow another line of reasoning. Say that Gold & commodities are now "so 2 seconds ago" and the hot thing is piling into Tech stocks again. Perhaps AAPL is just at the right place & time to be THE most visible target of that pile of Monopoly money looking for a property to land on. Meanwhile I trade the tape. It's got momentum. Bought a call yesterday, sold it today, enough cash to buy a new iPad. I keep an eye on the exits at all times, and that is all any player in the casino needs to do. Don't be a buy&hold sucker.

2. clambo Follow Befriend (5) 1,070 comments Santa Cruz, CA

   40   12:37am Thu 15 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Apple is the total opposite of a bubble stock because it grows profits so much it can always catch up to the stock price. Apple is simply the most successful, profitable, respected, largest company on earth. There is no reason to believe that the sales and profits will slow down until everyone on the planet has an Apple product. This could take a while. Call me a buy and hold sucker.

3. coorsbay Follow Befriend 9 comments Bellingham, WA

   41   6:30am Thu 15 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Apple has always been almost cultlike...... People devoted to Apples style and products.... They have great margins, cheap labor and a "gotta have it" huge group of fans

4. thunderlips11 Follow Befriend (13) 51 threads 2,637 comments Premium

   42   8:32am Thu 15 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Vicente says Don't be a buy&hold sucker. Check this out: http://www.frog-numerics.com/ifs/ifs_LevelA/SellInMay.html Interesting stuff!

5. parkave Follow Befriend 1 comments

   43   10:38am Thu 15 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   To short Apple would be a tragically short-sighted decision. Its easily already worth at least $800-$900 today, and will probably glide well beyond $1000 as the success of ipad 3 becomes apparent. Huge margins, dominant market position in the faster growing market (tablets), low P/E, and huge market share gains yet to be had in cell phone market and possibly a newly created market in TV space. Its a fast moving supertanker, anything that gets in the way will be flattened, including you.

6. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

   44   1:56am Fri 16 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   parkave says To short Apple would be a tragically short-sighted decision. Its easily already worth at least $800-$900 today, and will probably glide well beyond $1000 as the success of ipad 3 becomes apparent. Huge margins, dominant market position in the faster growing market (tablets), low P/E, and huge market share gains yet to be had in cell phone market and possibly a newly created market in TV space. Its a fast moving supertanker, anything that gets in the way will be flattened, including you. I think a 65% upside in the near term is highly unlikely. Apple is killing it in tablets, but there's little to no reason to believe that they're going to gain market share in smartphones. Their share of smartphones has been flat for two years. There's also no reason at all to believe that Apple will get any traction in TV. The video content owners have a great thing going, and there's really nothing that Apple could offer them that is a better deal than what they're getting from pay TV and advertising. The music industry embraced apple because piracy scared the shit out of them. The TV industry isn't really concerned with piracy at this point, and probably never will be due to the nature of their business model.

7. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

   45   7:49am Fri 16 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Apple isn't invincible. And consumer tastes DO change. The cult of Apple could be superseded by the "next big thing." But I sure as heck wouldn't short it. Not now. If it's PE ratio was 50x or something, maybe I'd short it. Right now it's PE ratio is about 17x. That's lower than McDonald's right now for chrissakes. If you want to short something, don't you think Amazon might be a better choice? Their PE is 134x, which is f*cking crazy.

8. thunderlips11 Follow Befriend (13) 51 threads 2,637 comments Premium

   46   8:54am Fri 16 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   wthrfrk80 says But I sure as heck wouldn't short it. Not now. If it's PE ratio was 50x or something, maybe I'd short it. Right now it's PE ratio is about 17x. That's lower than McDonald's right now for chrissakes. Yep, shorting Apple takes balls of iron at this point. Question is, what are they going to do with all that cash? Now that Jobs is gone, won't investors start demanding a dividend or buy back?

9. clambo Follow Befriend (5) 1,070 comments Santa Cruz, CA

   47   8:58am Fri 16 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Apple may someday fall out of favor, but not until the 6 billion people have one of their products. By that time I'm gonna be sipping a drink with an umbrella in it, served by an asian "nurse".

10. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

    48   10:39pm Fri 16 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   thunderlips11 says wthrfrk80 says But I sure as heck wouldn't short it. Not now. If it's PE ratio was 50x or something, maybe I'd short it. Right now it's PE ratio is about 17x. That's lower than McDonald's right now for chrissakes. Yep, shorting Apple takes balls of iron at this point. Question is, what are they going to do with all that cash? Now that Jobs is gone, won't investors start demanding a dividend or buy back? Homo Economicus. A Legendary Creature, like Bigfoot, claimed to exist by Pseudoscientists. Investors are still happy as long as the stock price keeps climbing. My guess is that Cook will start a dividend. I remain utterly unconvinced that Apple has another blockbuster product up its sleeve. Without jobs, they're going to wind up like Microsoft: Enormous profits continue to roll in from established businesses, which makes them lazy. I don't think Tim cook is the kind of man who will develop a product that will compete directly with an existing product. That's exactly what Jobs did with both the iphone and the ipad. That's what will ensure that someone disrupts apple in the long term. Once a company's visionary leadership is gone, and the show is being run by professional managers, however good and well-intentioned they are, the best days are behind them. Apple will be doing extremely well over the next 5-10 years. After that, all bets are off.

11. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,549 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    49   10:44pm Fri 16 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Suzi, Aren't you glad you didn't short AAPL? LOL! AAPL may have gotten ahead of itself from a charting/technical perspective. Actually, AAPL has been over-bought for almost 2 months. However, shorting a stock without understand how to read a chart is very dangerous. If you want to short AAPL, this is how you do it. If AAPL gapped down and opened at $575 or lower on Monday, which leaves a 3-day island top, you short it. Take 1/2 of your profit when AAPL hit $548, and the rest at $518. No gap down, no short. Do you understand what I just said above? LOL! With all of the stocks out there, why would you want to short AAPL?

12. thunderlips11 Follow Befriend (13) 51 threads 2,637 comments Premium

    50   12:03pm Sat 17 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Kevin says Once a company's visionary leadership is gone, and the show is being run by professional managers, however good and well-intentioned they are, the best days are behind them. Great point.

13. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    51   3:32pm Sat 17 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Kevin says Once a company's visionary leadership is gone, and the show is being run by professional managers, however good and well-intentioned they are, the best days are behind them. That is right. It already happened at Apple before, like with John Scully and Gil Amelio.

14. xenogear3 Follow Befriend 10 threads 419 comments

    52   6:46pm Sat 17 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   You don't short it when it is going up. I will wait for a 10% drop, then short. You also have to cover if it breaks out again. You will lose 10% per try. It is not bad, consider that you will lose everything in a casino or real estate.

15. BoomAndBustCycle Follow Befriend 28 threads 351 comments

    53   8:27pm Sun 18 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I do not think you should short apple unless you think the entire market is going to tank back to 10k DOW... Apple is going to trade like a leveraged etf... And they are announcing what they are doing with their cash horde tomorrow at noon... Expect apple to break $600 easily sometime tomorrow.

16. Vicente Follow Befriend (8) 204 threads 4,411 comments Davis, CA

    54   9:40pm Sun 18 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Monday 9AM ET there will be a conference call to discuss what Apple is planning to do with the oceans of cash it's sitting on. The punditocracy leads with "they'll pay dividend".

17. xenogear3 Follow Befriend 10 threads 419 comments

    55   4:36am Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   People will sell Apple if it pays dividend, because they will get a tax bill. Plus it is a sign that Apple cannot grow anymore. A "10:1 split" will help :)

18. thunderlips11 Follow Befriend (13) 51 threads 2,637 comments Premium

    56   9:25am Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Official, quarterly dividend for APPL http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2012/03/apple-goes-blue-chip-with-new-quarterly-shareholder-dividend/ AND a buyback program.

19. Vicente Follow Befriend (8) 204 threads 4,411 comments Davis, CA

    57   4:11pm Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   And.... 3 million units sold over the opening weekend. How are those puts doing?

20. Ian Ollmann Follow Befriend 6 comments

    58   11:30pm Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Apple announces a $10B stock buyback program and you want to short the stock? You are brave.

21. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    59   5:43am Tue 20 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Ian Ollmann says Apple announces a $10B stock buyback program and you want to short the stock? You are brave. From the beginning of the movie "True Lies:" Tom Arnold: "...now that's ballsy. Stupid, but ballsy..."

22. treatmentreport Follow Befriend 7 threads 172 comments treatmentreport's website

    60   1:42pm Tue 20 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Apple (565B) > Google (206B) + Microsoft (268.5B) + Amazon (87.5B). To put things in perspective.

23. thunderlips11 Follow Befriend (13) 51 threads 2,637 comments Premium

    61   3:22pm Tue 20 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   BoomAndBustCycle says Apple has the competitors balls in a vice. They are all scrambling to compete with Apple in the high-end tablet market and failing miserably. Not true. Droid Tablets will probably reach market share dominance over the iPads by 3Q 2012. I believe they are already about 60-40 in market share, with non iOS or Droid tablets being negligible. As fast or faster than it took the Droid to dominate the iPhone.

24. Vicente Follow Befriend (8) 204 threads 4,411 comments Davis, CA

    62   9:16am Fri 23 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Hilarious! Flash crash! AAPL trading stopped due to circuit breaker this morning. Some brand-spanky new exchange called BATS was putting out spurious trade orders, and submitted a sale of a mere 100 shares AAPL at 9% below market which tripped a "stop trading". http://www.cnbc.com/id/46835129 I have a 3% trailing stop set on this stock, but it never triggered since the stock stopped trading immediately and it's bid/ask never really dropped much.

25. swebb Follow Befriend (3) 29 threads 490 comments Denver, CO

    63   10:48pm Fri 23 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   thunderlips11 says Not true. Droid Tablets will probably reach market share dominance over the iPads by 3Q 2012. I believe they are already about 60-40 in market share, with non iOS or Droid tablets being negligible. As fast or faster than it took the Droid to dominate the iPhone. OK, but how do you become financially invested in Droid's potential success? It seems like fragmented market vs The One. AAPL still sells a shit ton of phones and tablets, still at a premium, and without having to compete with other "nearly identical" brothers the way Droid does...

26. clambo Follow Befriend (5) 1,070 comments Santa Cruz, CA

    64   10:21am Sat 24 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Comparing Apple to Android is so ridiculous but people do it anyway. I own 1. an android phone with the cheapest plan on earth 2. AAPL. My Android phone does mysterious things from time to time. It's not rock solid by any stretch. I still like it however. Apple makes a few hundred bucks on 1. every iPhone 2. every iPad 3. every Macbook air and they're selling the shit out of them worldwide. The sales keep increasing, and there are still billions of people who want one of these products, or several of them. Look only at how much they sell, how much profit they make, and what is going on with both of those. You have a problem with your phone. Would you rather 1. go into the Apple store? 2. go into radio shack/verizon store and ask for help with your android? Personally I like the Apple store and my local Radio shack is full of *those people*.

27. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

    65   12:39pm Sat 24 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   swebb says OK, but how do you become financially invested in Droid's potential success? Droid is a verizon brand, so I suppose you'd buy verizon stock. Assuming that you actually mean Android, obviously you buy Google, Samsung, HTC, etc.

28. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,539 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

    66   9:59pm Tue 27 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   clambo says I own 1. an android phone with the cheapest plan on earth Virgin Mobile?

29. BoomAndBustCycle Follow Befriend 28 threads 351 comments

    67   11:15pm Tue 27 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   thunderlips11 says BoomAndBustCycle says Apple has the competitors balls in a vice. They are all scrambling to compete with Apple in the high-end tablet market and failing miserably. Not true. Droid Tablets will probably reach market share dominance over the iPads by 3Q 2012. I believe they are already about 60-40 in market share, with non iOS or Droid tablets being negligible. As fast or faster than it took the Droid to dominate the iPhone. Homo Economicus. A Legendary Creature, like Bigfoot, claimed to exist by Pseudoscientists. Droid is dominating the IPHONE? I thought apple had the highest profit margins of the entire cell phone industry? I would rather sell a million iphones and take a 51% share of the cellular market profits over selling a billion "buy one get one free droids" from htc, samsung, Name your crappy brand here... Each with razor thin profit margins.

30. clambo Follow Befriend (5) 1,070 comments Santa Cruz, CA

    68   12:03am Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Bmwman is correct! I pay $25/month unlimited data/texting. For a few months I was tethering my laptop to the android as a wifi hotspot, just to see if it worked. It did work, I was even able to skype video tethered to my android phone. Those who are predicting some problems for Apple in the future are wrong. The Apple "ecosystem" is growing a bit stronger with icloud and soon you'll shoot pics/videos with your iPhone, see them on your iPad, which will be a large remote for your Apple TV to play it all on. I'll skip it myself. I have a roku and use dropbox, but my computers are macs.

31. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

    69   12:05am Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   BoomAndBustCycle says Droid is dominating the IPHONE? I thought apple had the highest profit margins of the entire cell phone industry? I would rather sell a million iphones and take a 51% share of the cellular market profits over selling a billion "buy one get one free droids" from htc, samsung, Name your crappy brand here... Each with razor thin profit margins. Only they don't have "razor thin" profit margins. Samsung has only slightly lower margins than Apple on their smartphones. HTC is also doing quite well, even though their revenues tanked last year when samsung hit them in their main markets.

32. thunderlips11 Follow Befriend (13) 51 threads 2,637 comments Premium

    70   10:09am Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   BoomAndBustCycle says Droid is dominating the IPHONE? I thought apple had the highest profit margins of the entire cell phone industry? The Chart I posted is clearly showing Market Share, which is an entirely different concept than Margins. Apple's margins are fat, but they depend on their Android-making competitors for Apple Components, which could grow into an issue later on. BoomAndBustCycle says I would rather sell a million iphones and take a 51% share of the cellular market profits over selling a billion "buy one get one free droids" from htc, samsung, High Margin or High Volume. Sachs 5th Avenue vs. The Dollar Tree. McD's versus Ruth's Chris. You can make money either way, however when an industry matures it tends towards Volume. They also tend to be mutually exclusive.

33. Vicente Follow Befriend (8) 204 threads 4,411 comments Davis, CA

    71   10:51am Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   At the time of orginal post AAPL was ~$550/share. Now trading well north of $600. The answer to end this thread is: NOT YET Too bad I couldn't prove that on March 11th, hope the OP didn't lose their nest egg on put contracts.

34. BoomAndBustCycle Follow Befriend 28 threads 351 comments

    72   11:37am Mon 9 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   thunderlips11 says The Chart I posted is clearly showing Market Share, which is an entirely different concept than Margins. Apple's margins are fat, but they depend on their Android-making competitors for Apple Components, which could grow into an issue later on. Your charts are useless and misleading. iOs and OTHERS are the only two categories... If it were broken down by specific model of phone... or company. The share of iOS would DWARF everything else. Android is such a fragmented market... Apple does have to watch it's back because the Android market is a lot like the PC market of the 80s/90s. But i don't believe the tech consumers of 2000 on are anything like the tech consumers of the 80s/90s. They no longer want fragmented open-source market.. The CONSUMER enjoys the ease of use of a SAFE walled garden ecosystem that Apple has nurtured. Apple's brand has never been stronger either. 2 year-olds love the IPAD and 99 year olds love the IPAD. They've done a great job of branding and converting people to Apple products for life.

35. CL Follow Befriend (12) 140 threads 1,355 comments Emeryville, CA

    73   3:32pm Mon 9 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   clambo says with icloud and soon you'll shoot pics/videos with your iPhone, see them on your iPad, which will be a large remote for your Apple TV to play it all on. You can already have the photos show up automagically on your AppleTv as well. Just fyi!

36. clambo Follow Befriend (5) 1,070 comments Santa Cruz, CA

    74   3:55pm Mon 9 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I think it's time to short AAPL in a decade or so, maybe when it's a split adjusted $2000 per share.

37. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,539 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

    75   10:19pm Mon 9 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   I wouldn't short them unless I thought that people were going to stop being fickle consumer whores. Apple is running strong right now, they have mountains of cash and international demand is just getting ramped up. Unless consumers stop being consumers, Apple still has some room to grow.

38. thunderlips11 Follow Befriend (13) 51 threads 2,637 comments Premium

    76   8:56am Tue 10 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   BoomAndBustCycle says Your charts are useless and misleading. iOs and OTHERS are the only two categories... Others is almost entirely Android, Windows and "Other" are a tiny fraction, as seen in the Ring-chart below. Android is the dominant OS. Here's more charts from various sources for you: Note that Android dominated iOS despite a lead of several months, within just 2 years. BoomAndBustCycle says If it were broken down by specific model of phone... or company. The share of iOS would DWARF everything else. Why would we do that, it's misleading. If we were to break down PCs by Manufacturer rather than OS, then it might appear that Snow Leopard was running neck and neck with Dell or something. It would be misinformative, since Windows is the most important factor in determining what software your PC can run, not the maker of the PC. What counts is that Android OS powers the majority of SmartPhones. That determines the ecosystem the user has access to, just like your PC's OS determines what software you can run (Emulators are far from perfect, and the more complicated the software, the less it's likely to work). The App Store or the Multitude of Android Stores

39. thunderlips11 Follow Befriend (13) 51 threads 2,637 comments Premium

    77   9:15am Tue 10 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   BoomAndBustCycle says But i don't believe the tech consumers of 2000 on are anything like the tech consumers of the 80s/90s. They no longer want fragmented open-source market.. The CONSUMER enjoys the ease of use of a SAFE walled garden ecosystem that Apple has nurtured. Apple's brand has never been stronger either. 2 year-olds love the IPAD and 99 year olds love the IPAD. They've done a great job of branding and converting people to Apple products for life. Not seeing this reflected in any trends or numbers. Consumers love choice. If they didn't, they'd all have dumped their Windows machines for Macs and it would be apparent in the trend line. Yet Mac market share is still in the single digits. And of course, the charts above reinforce that for Smartphones as well. And the power users - the key influencers who influence the casual buyer - prefer flexibility and openness more than most. Everybody keeps announcing the death of Windows that never happens.

40. thunderlips11 Follow Befriend (13) 51 threads 2,637 comments Premium

    78   10:10am Tue 10 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   BoomAndBustCycle says The CONSUMER enjoys the ease of use of a SAFE walled garden ecosystem that Apple has nurtured. http://securitywatch.pcmag.com/none/296449-flashback-ends-mac-s-no-virus-reputation-experts-say Kaspersky: Reputation Already Lost Roel Schouwenberg, Senior Researcher for Kaspersky Lab, observed that "the MacDefender and DNSChanger epidemics from last year were the turning point." He goes on to note that "it became clear to the cyber-crime world that there's money to be made with OSX malware, and we’ve seen an increase in OSX malware since then." Schowenberg stated, "Percentage-wise, Flashback is roughly the equivalent of Conficker," referring to the multi-vector Conficker Worm that created such a stir in 2008-2009. Most industry metrics for prevalence of PC viruses rely in part on telemetry from security software, so "because so few OSX users are running security software, so the metrics the industry has are limited." Schowenberg concluded, "I hope we can now finally lay the 'Mac has no malware' myth to rest." Microsoft’s Windows 7 operating system is more secure than Apple’s Mac OS X, claims security researchers at Black Hat. According to Alex Stamos of iSec Partners, OS X has a greater number of vulnerabilities compared to Windows 7, and when it comes to network security, ’OS X networks are significantly more vulnerable to network privilege escalation,’ and that ‘almost every OSX server service offers weak or broken authentication mechanisms.’ Stamos also goes on to dispel the myth that Mac OS X isn’t attracting attention from hackers. To support this he points out that over the past three years 1,151 major vulnerabilities have affected Apple products, only slightly less than the 1,325 affecting Windows. http://www.zdnet.com/blog/hardware/black-hat-os-x-networks-are-significantly-more-vulnerable/14130

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