WatchBeen searching around and talking to other investors in chat rooms and there's a growing number of folks thinking it's a good time to start shorting Apple. They may have reached their peak and the decline is beginning. A recent article from Jin Yee states that she's one of those that believe it's a good time to start looking into shorting Apple also.
source: http://www.hotstockstobuy.com/2012/03/the-new-ipad-first-day-sales-report/
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I was reading recently that 77% of AAPL is owned by "institutional investors", i.e. mutual funds, pensions, etc.
This means to me that relatively few AAPL shares are owned by individuals, so the shares have room to go up. Why?
Because institutional investors still limit themselves to amouts of shares of any stock they buy. Few mutual funds can make large "bets" on any particular stock. Fidelity Contrafund for example loves AAPL but there are probably 400 stocks in the portfolio.
There is lots of room for sales to grow in profitable iPhone, iPad, iTunes, Macbook airs, etc.
So, AAPL will continue to go up. The question is: Do you think it will go up 1. as fast as the overall stock market 2. 2x or 3x as fast as the overall market?
I think AAPL is going to go up several times the overall market, so I am making a wild "guestimate" of 20% per year over the next few years.
I'm expecting AAPL therefore to double in a three years or so.
My investment time horizon is 10 years plus anyway.
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clambo says
PE ratio is a "nose bleed" level of 14.69x earnings
with Beta at .99
S&P is at 14x earnings
Linkedin is well past pluto at 1000x earnings
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The PE will drop as Apple makes more money.
Note the profit growth of some others was negative for the last quarter, Apple almost grew profits 100%.
If they keep doing that for a few years, watch out.
AAPL $1000 in less than 3 years, AAPL $1500 in 4 years.
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I saw this movie before.
Was it in 1998 or 2000?
The only difference is that there are TONS of good companies back then.
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No one has seen this before.
Apple Tv will come out in a while. Fanboys will buy them slowly but this will get Apple more dough from iTunes and the TV itself of course.
After a 100 million or so of the TVs are sold, Apple will have a nice stream of income like netflix from iTunes movie sales, etc.
Apple will also go after Paypal and start allowing you to pay for things with your iPhone. That's a nice little 2% margin all CASH business. Mo money!
Imagine skimming 2% of everything every rabid consumer buys by simply flashing their new fancy "liquid metal" iPhone? oh man.
Actually, I really do not know how much paypal/mastercard/visa makes but I guess 2%.
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I believe that the current large money-shufflers pull 3%.
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http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AAPL
Back to ~$570. Not big into tech analysis, but looks like a head and shoulders to me.
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Closed at $553 today.
Peaked at $636 in early April.
Outstanding shares: 900M
So, 900M x ($636 - $553) = $74.7B in "wealth" that has disappeared.
Honestly, it is anyone's guess what is going to happen with it over the next 3-6 months. My bet is that it falls a little more & flattens out until the iPhone 5 launch.
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In 2000, everyone thought Nokia will take over the world.
Now it has negative earning.
Tech companies are risky.
Facebook is way to go.
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xenogear3 says
Ha, yeah it's a sure thing if I ever saw one. Some guy that claimed to know about stocks said it was "muppet bait." I am not sure what that is, but those muppets sure are cute & nice, so I bet it means I should buy FB stock. I mean hell, I have HEARD of the company, so how can I lose?!
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Oh and it looks like it'll close around $10 lower today. Did anyone in here actually short AAPL and are they sitting pretty now?
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yes. started at 525 in four increments to the top. Closed two increments around 570, one today, still holding one. Most likely it will go back to low 400s but I don't need to wait to find out.
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I just bought more AAPL today.
I needed to get my average cost per share back down ;)
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I'm still sitting. I cashed out at 600+ and will wait until at least 525 before scaling back in. Dependent on macroeconomic or Apple news of course.
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Sitting=holding cash?
Macroeconomic news won't affect Apple. The USA economy sucks, so does Europe and they sold 35 million+ iPhones last *quarter*, increased profits 98% last *quarter*.
People can be dying in the streets and there will still be mobs buying stuff at the Apple store.
buy buy buy :)
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Well, we all know that iPhone 5 is coming. I wonder what else they have in the pipe line...surely they have SOMETHING other than rehashed phones & tablets. Apple isn't stupid, and while it is a bit of an arrogant company, I don't think that it is enough to blind them to the realities of the market.
So, is this a temporary lull, with the stock ready to rocket up to 800, or is it on its way down to a lower price where it will remain for a while?
Why did it drop all of a sudden? Their P/E is very conservative and as far as I can tell their products are still hot...what gives?
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clambo says
Si. Holding a few dividend-earning & bond positions, and the rest cash.
Once in a while I trade like another poster here.
I sit and wait like a sniper until my target appears.
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The stock market is an auctionplace. There is frequently no logical reason why anything goes up or down over the short term. It's a bit odd today since Apple reported increasing profits 98% ! over the last 3 months.
Apple is selling increasing numbers of ALL of the products it makes. Apple doesn't need anything new to keep making a shitload of profit. Apple will undoubtedly make a TV set with a webcam and other functions.
The new TV will be undoubtedly very slick and have things all built in like siri, facetime, icloud access, wireless, itunes, streaming content from your macs, etc. It will also be the first aluminum or "liquid metal" TV.
Apple paid for the exclusive use of liquid metal alloy, so this material will be seen ONLY in Apple products soon. I don't know whether it will be in macbook airs, iphones, ipads, tvs or all of them.
There will be some positive news and AAPL will go up $150 in a week. For example: Apple and Chinamobile agree to get the iPhone made for their network. Chinamobile subscribers=660 million.
Although AAPL is going down today, in my conversation with the vanguard broker I was told that I had some company as I bought more shares. Evidently someone is buying AAPL.
Wait until the dividends are paid. Then, even more mutual funds will buy more AAPL. Wait until Apple starts buying back their shares. Bam!
Today so many mutual funds own AAPL it's sick. Fidelity Contrafund has about 400 stocks in it and AAPL is 10% of the value of the portfolio. Mutual funds cannot buy any more Apple, it's not allowed in their prospectus.
Hedge funds of course can do whatever they want to, and some of them are really balls to the wall on AAPL.
I never gamble, I never make risky investments and I am of course conservative in every possible sense of the word. The future of AAPL is so obviously awesome that I would even go above 15% of my financial net worth in AAPL.
Of course, I may be wrong. China could implode, India may sink into the sea, Cupertino could be hit by an asteriod, Obama could declare himself dictator for life and nationalize Apple, etc. You can never be absolutely sure.
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Maybe Apple is really going to go to the "dark side". Worra, worra :)
Do you think Apple was seeking federal welfare to build solar panels or windmills someplace?
"Smoke 'em if you got 'em boys"
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clambo says
crazy as it sounds that may well be the case... will see!!
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Famous last words
"Man the Lifeboats"
"It's just a fleshwound."
"Just got the wind knocked out of me"
"My god it's full of stars"
"It can't be a bad stock, it's owned by so many Mutual Funds."
"I'm just dollar cost averaging by buying the dips"
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My mother used to say "Laugh, clown, laugh."
Those who buy AAPL today are going to make the easiest 30% by Christmas in their lives.
It's almost funny. Those guys who were bummed out that AAPL went up so fast while they sat on the sidelines wished that it would dip so they could buy it. They are buying AAPL now.
There are some people evidently selling AAPL to have cash to buy some Facebook. Now, that's something I would never do myself.
You guys need to get out of provincial California. Go get on a plane to Paris. Go later on to Hong Kong. Check out Beijing and Shanghai. Then down to OZ. Back to N. America hit Mexico. Back to NYC, up to Quebec.
You will see Apple iPhones, Macbooks, iPads, everywhere, and not just in the airport lounges.
I like the AAPL dip because it will have a "slingshot effect" and bam! this baby is gonna be $750 by or after Christmas.
Of course, I could also be wrong ;)
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Clambo,
"There are some people evidently selling AAPL to have cash to buy some Facebook. "
You really don't know that. What is this based on? Apple is going down because it went up too fast. With these types of run ups most of the gains are given back to test the support levels, so I would not be surprised to see Apple in low to mid 400s. Note, I am not betting on it, but usually it happens.
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clambo says
Haha, this is exactly my train of thought with a lot of stocks...any why I stay out of them! There's always that nagging feeling of, "BUT I would be wrong" and I end up not gambling with stocks. Chances are that you are right about Apple though...their P/E is conservative, the iPhone 5 is coming soon and they have CASH in the bank. I can't really figure out why their stock is tanking right now...any insights? I don't buy the "dumping AAPL for FB" claim. Anyone that is holding AAPL has to see how volatile FB is going to be and I would think that they would be smart enough to stay way for the first few months.
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treatment is correct, it's just something I read somewhere about guys "raising cash to buy facebook." I have really zero idea nor does it matter who is selling. Obviously someone's selling it ;)
Since I have not sold any mutual fund that I liked but rather some I thought stunk, I won't sell AAPL until the company starts to stink. I can't imagine when that time will come though.
I can of course be 100% wrong. Photos of Cook engaging in sex with a martian underage transvestite, an asteroid may hit Cupertino, flesh eating bacteria can infect the salmon scrape in their sushi rolls at the cafeteria, the iPads may be made with radioactive aluminum, the guy at the Chinese recycling plant dropped in the cobalt from a dentist x-ray in the batch, all sorts of things can and may happen.
But, the money was languishing and I was succumbing to the greed of wanting to see my balance shoot up more quickly than the gradual up from mutual funds in stocks and bonds.
I may succumb again tomorrow.
It's funny, I surfed and scuba dive where there have been numerous great white attacks and yet what scares me is my investment going negative for several weeks?
I would take Apple over 100 facebooks however.
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So, will AAPL soar now that FB didn't provide the stock-gamblers the instant riches that they sought? Will they flock back to AAPL? Did they actually leave AAPL shares for FB? I am still having a hard time figuring out why it tanked so hard in the last week.
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Anyone want to handicap Apple's Photo Stream sharing initiative. Is the revolutionary, evolutionary, or barely keeping up with the competition? Instagram built an interesting business with (initially) an iOS only app. Apple is also talking about video sharing as well through iCloud. Time to buy grandma an iPad or AppleTV?
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I bet Apple will imitate the usefulness of facebook/instagram photo sharing functionality if it is worthwhile.
Apple did imitate others on their way to making gazillions.
I recall that Jobs liked the way Dell sold stuff with their website, so he decided Apple.com would be a good site to buy stuff.
He also liked those GAP stores and wanted to imitate them with the Apple store.
I imagine iCloud will copy in some ways Dropbox/sugarsync, etc.
So, the photo sharing stuff will probably be inevitable.
Who knows, Apple may also end up making an "iBook" facebook parallel.
There isn't anything they can't do if they want to, they have the money and resources to.
I'm just hoping to not see Zukerberg's face so much anymore.
It is a mystery why Apple went down last week, but I believe that it just how these things go, the overall market went down, and so did Apple.
However, when you find a $20 on the sidewalk, you don't ask or look around too much, you just pick it up.
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EBGuy says
family pictures dont get much public interest or earn higher market value!
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EBGuy says
family pictures dont get much public interest or earn higher market value!
clambo says
the media has a love affair with FB.. always have!
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Apple's photostream can chip away at facebook, at no cost to Apple but to facebooks detriment.
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clambo says
And people are running out of credit to buy this crap that goes obsolete in a year with.
And with the rapist wireless loser companies like Veriscum, Sprunt and AT&Trash ripping off people with ever decreasing voice quality and massive fine for using the internet for anything, I cant see this craze continuing. Its insane. Family phone bills these days are bloody oppressive. Joke. The infrastructure is old and mangy, yet, they charge more and more for this old junk getting more and more oversubscribed by the day.
Joke. The all you can eat internet revolutionized the world, and the oligarchs and rapists want to put a toll booth and a NKVD censor in front of this internet in the wireless world. What a joke and a sad regression. Going backwards and costing more and more of your daily bread.
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Foxconn chairman: we're going to build Apple's television
http://www.osnews.com/story/25939/Foxconn_chairman_we_re_going_to_build_Apple_s_television
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Anyone who has any cash laying around (few do) should get some AAPL tomorrow or sometime before June.
Mick, the places where Apple sells stuff people have no mortgages, and no personal debt. These countries were previously called "poor" "third world" or "developing".
The residents have increasing buying power, increasing wages, and increasing appetites for stuff.
I know several people who own iPhones in Mexico for the status, they didn't get data plans because those are expensive!
Armies of office ladies in Shanghai save up for months to buy a Louis Vuitton handbag. They'll save to put an iPhone inside it.
It just wouldn't look right to pull out a plastic Korean phone from your French $2000+ handbag, would it?
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If it drops below $500 I'm backing up the truck at the dock.
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thomas.wong1986 says
Television? What is that? Must be a new product !
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thomas.wong1986 says
But a platform for disruptive media content creation and distribution might. Or at the very least help them maintain margins. YMMV...
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clambo says
I guess it wouldnt matter either way, since Apple uses Samsung parts.
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EBGuy says
Pictures of anyones grand-ma or last years summer vacation were never that interesting.
disruptive.. ? must be this...
Irreconcilable Claim: Facebook Causes 1 in 5 divorce...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703597804576194563288753204.html