WatchBeen searching around and talking to other investors in chat rooms and there's a growing number of folks thinking it's a good time to start shorting Apple. They may have reached their peak and the decline is beginning. A recent article from Jin Yee states that she's one of those that believe it's a good time to start looking into shorting Apple also.
source: http://www.hotstockstobuy.com/2012/03/the-new-ipad-first-day-sales-report/
Follow
Befriend
7 threads
172 comments
treatmentreport's website
This thread is definitely getting off topic. I hope everyone is enjoying a beautiful weekend.
Follow
Befriend
94 threads
444 comments
Kent, WA
John Bailo's website
The product that fascinates me is Siri.
Watching the ad with Samuel Jackson, preparing for "date night" in his kitchen, selecting recipes and making appointments...it struck me.
If you have a computer that can understand voice, do you need to carry a screen around any more?
http://viad.tv/video-13352/iphone-4s-siri-with-samuel-l-jackson-date-night/
Why can't you just have one of those in ear phones. If you need to know something like "Where is sushi" just ask it, like you would a person, and then have it direct you to where the restaurant is using voice.
Thus Siri destroys its creator.
In that sense, maybe we're moving to the Star Trek computing paradigm. In Star Trek the primary interface was a VUI -- Voice User Interface. Star Fleet didn't sit around with mice clicking on Google Universe searching for strange new planets, they told the computer "Computer, calculate distance to Rigel 9".
With Siri or Watson, don't we have this now...almost. I mean, ideally, I would just have my 32" LCD, walk in the living room and say "Netflix. Film noire. Select Gangster film..." and that would come on the screen. I would have a cheap screen on my refrigerator and say "Chicken recipe". I wouldn't be carrying around a 3x2" screen in my hand when I was trying to cook...with voice and the occasional glance at a screen I could perform tasks far more fluidly.
In the end, it's all validation of Bailo's Law:
http://yrihf.com/viewtopic.php?t=3933&sid=63e91478e21450ba1a46429401bbd16f
Follow
Befriend (5)
1,070 comments
Santa Cruz, CA
New Apple features and products will continue. Some may be gimmicks and some may be useful.
Apple is going to make a new iPhone and it's gonna be slick, and they'll sell milllions of them.
Apple TV may be next. Apple is gaining momemtum, not losing it.
Follow
Befriend (6)
5 threads
2,359 comments
clambo,
Apple as the Cool and Hippest thing going on, in Silicon Valley, in California, in the world, last time Steven Jobs was forced out of the company. Together with gov't officials, Jobs had even endorsed Big Plans for a new campus in Coyote Valley before his departure. The sky was the limit. Only thing that was missing when he left was visionary leadership.
We all know what happened next.
Since (I think) Jobs was human and not Jesus Christ, it means that Jobs will not be returning this time. Time will tell but I don't think for this case, "It's different this time." (unlike coveted Fortress SFH market which is "different this time").
Follow
Befriend
16 threads
4,426 comments
clambo says
Lol! Samsung TV dressed in Drag!
Follow
Befriend
16 threads
4,426 comments
B.A.C.A.H. says
So amazing so many are so easily brainwashed.
Follow
Befriend
16 threads
4,426 comments
John Bailo says
Nothing is for free! such "tools" are designed as an extention of Advertising and your the target...
do you own the tool or does it own you...
"Think different" is "We think for you"... We are the Borg and you will be assimulated...
Follow
Befriend (13)
52 threads
2,639 comments
Premium
thomas.wong1986 says
Word. It's the Apple version of SmartTV.
http://www.samsung.com/us/2012-smart-tv/
I'll be curious to see if the AppleTV has all the bells and whistles the SmartTV has at the same price point. I wouldn't be surprised if it has less features but is more expensive, while made from more or less the same components that the competition uses. Marketing, Marketing, Marketing.
There has already been two generations of AppleTV, as a TV peripheral, for 5-6 years now. When they failed to take living rooms by storm (dedicated peripherals are used by only a tiny minority - 1%, most use an HDMI'd laptop or use the Xbox), I think it was Cook who distanced the company from the product by calling it a "hobby". What does that say to the customers? "We don't take the product we sold you seriously."
Only 1% of US households have a dedicated peripheral for digital content:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/04/16/BUQ81O21JA.DTL&ao=all
Follow
Befriend (5)
1,070 comments
Santa Cruz, CA
You guys have made my argument, not disputed it.
The fact that Samsung has already an Apple TV type device and hasn't sold a gazillion of them means that Appletv will kick serious ass and sell lots of them.
I just had lunch with a friend who invited me. She has the iPhone and I have my android. I can understand my phone more than she hers, but her phone is beautiful and feels substantial while mine is a bit plasticy, rubbery, and not nearly as slick.
Can she actually use all of the features of her iPhone? No way.
She works in high tech manufacturing by the way.
Apple products are going to be in every household on earth someday. The questions is how soon.
Already most Americans own at least ONE Apple product.
Apple sales keep growing and their profit margin is so insane that even if the entire GDP of the entire earth grows at just 5% overall, Apple will grow profits by 15%+ every year into the future. How can they NOT???
Leave the provinicialism and judgement of whether Jobs was a genius behind, the stuff Apple mades is in such high demand, people who have no idea who he was want that stuff.
i gave a girl in Mexico an iPod nano with video a couple years ago for her Christmas present. She was so happy and proud with that little thing she saved every paper, wrapping, the box, the case, she even was loathe to peel off the clear plastic screen protector.
Oh and it was well spent since she showed her appreciation for Senor Papa Azucar :)
I have an android, roku, sansa mp3 player, and apple computers. But, I am not the worldwide consumer. The consumer wants Apple.
The next iPhone will be made of an incredible material that is a glass-like alloy and should blow the other phones all away (again).
AAPL is gonna be $1000, the question is how soon.
Follow
Befriend (6)
5 threads
2,359 comments
Yep. Heard all that kinda stuff before.
Follow
Befriend
3 comments
Its not a zero sum game for US citizens/corporations as long as overall its the US companies which are selling phones to the world. US as a country makes money selling technology to the world.
We benefit directly or indirectly from the increasing wealth made by US companies whether its apple, MSFT, INTEL,Nvidia,google, motorola.
If Samsung takes over and build everything from scratch in korea. All US companies in phone business will lose.
Whatever money samsung makes will all be staying in korea.
Follow
Befriend (5)
1,070 comments
Santa Cruz, CA
I never heard of a kid selling a kidney or a girl selling her ass to buy a Samsung product, have you?
Follow
Befriend
3 comments
clambo says
Please don't make investment decisions based on stuff like this.
You may be right about apple but buying a stock because the company's products are selling like hot cakes or because people are willing to sell kidney to buy the products is not a good stratergy. company moat, future roadmap..etc are important too.
Follow
Befriend (5)
1,070 comments
Santa Cruz, CA
Apple, which reports on Tuesday, is expected to record a 57% jump in net income to $9.4 billion, according to Thomson Reuters.
I make my investment decisions based on what I see when I go around here and there about the world, and based on other published information.
For example, you can go to Mexico, Canada, China and see Caterpillar equipment all around. I predict therefore that Cat was a good stock to buy. The same goes for Apple, Nestle, BMW, and LVMH (they make the Luis Vuitton bags.)
The Luis Vuitton stuff is loved by women everywhere for some reason unknown to me.
But, Apple is the only stock that I own individually, because this is today a unique company. It may not stay unique for long, but today it is kicking ass in sales growth and profits and that is the reason to buy the stock.
You can hang out in the Air France lounge in SFO on your way to Paris and see the iMacs for use, the iPhones the passengers have, and their other stuff like macbook airs and iPads. In airports and starbucks in the various cities you see the same thing regardless of which country.
I saw tons of Apple stuff in a Mexico Starbucks, and they had a popular Apple dept. in the walmart there. They had sold out the $200 iPod nano video gadgets and this was in *Mexico*.
The brand is so powerful and the company is so profitable.
If they didn't make profits, I would not buy the stock.
Products and profits, not bullshit like linkedin, or webvan, or groupon or whatever bullshit is out there.
Follow
Befriend (5)
1,070 comments
Santa Cruz, CA
So, Apple is making dough at the rate of about $40 billion/year and there are about 1 billion shares out there. Will Apple profits continue to Grow? Will Apple profits Fall?
For the next few years, I say they will grow.
Follow
Befriend (2)
33 threads
3,461 comments
B.A.C.A.H. says
I had not heard that one before, but Cisco made exactly the same plans in 1999, right before the dot.com bubble imploded. And Coyote Valley is still there, untouched.
Right now, Apple is also planning that Spaceship building on, where is it, Tantau Ave in Cupertino? Be very afraid.
Follow
Befriend (8)
204 threads
4,416 comments
Davis, CA
The thing that worries me is the overweight influence of AAPL on the NASDAQ. What happens the day they finally don't meet Wall Street expectations? Tech stocks will drop like a rock even if they have nothing to do with Apple. One reason I stopped investing in any other tech stocks, this one stock has become like a surrogate for owning QQQ.
Follow
Befriend (3)
124 comments
Vicente says
This concern had already built into the price. P/E(fwd) is only 11.97, PEG is only 0.65 despite its earnings is growing at 90+%. Secondly, you don't know when AAPL would finally don't meet Wall Street expectations. Many of friends are worried about this for like almost 10 years and still are worried.
justme - Tech stocks such as cisco has ridiculously high P/E (>60) and PEG much greater than 1 aka excessive overvalued during the dotcom boom. Current P/E and PEG of AAPL are much lower, in fact, is in the undervalued space.
Follow
Befriend (13)
52 threads
2,639 comments
Premium
Vicente says
Great point.
One other worry is Facebook. They generated less income this quarter than a year ago. Troubling, because this was the last quarterly earnings prior to the IPO. A disappointing Facebook launch could also send the NASDAQ down.
http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-04-24/industries/31385531_1_first-quarter-revenue-jumps-zynga-social-network
hanera says
This is true. APPL is really good about managing expectations and then exceeding them. However, there is criticism of the analysts in that, given how often it's happened, they should take that into account going forward.
Follow
Befriend (5)
1,070 comments
Santa Cruz, CA
Analysts never want to look like they guessed wrong, so they tend to underestimate. This way they later say "Apple beat our expectations! Wow!"
If the random analyst predicted something that did not happen, it would look like he made a "mistake".
Follow
Befriend (13)
52 threads
2,639 comments
Premium
clambo says
Actually, evidence points generally in the opposite direction; Analysts tend to be overly optimistic:
http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/newsletters/chartfocus/2010_07.htm
Follow
Befriend (13)
52 threads
2,639 comments
Premium
Here's what an iPhone, unlocked without carrier contracts, costs around the world.
Follow
Befriend (7)
37 threads
1,539 comments
Mountain View, CA
bmwman91's website
Premium
thunderlips11 says
I saw an article about this in the SJ Mercury News. It says that the lower revenue is due to FB pouring a gigantic portion of income into R&D, thus lowering their reported revenue. So, FB is probably doing fine overall.
Follow
Befriend (5)
1,070 comments
Santa Cruz, CA
facebook oh brother.
google and apple could eat facebook for lunch which may eventually happen.
Follow
Befriend (13)
52 threads
2,639 comments
Premium
bmwman91 says
What dropped was the gross margin. Facebook is probably reaching saturation point; the real challenge going forward is monetizing the users and supplying the infrastructure to get there. A problem all maturing businesses face.
Some wonder whether delaying the IPO was a wise idea, they seem to be tilting into 'established business phase' now, which makes them less appealing as a growth stock.
Follow
Befriend
7 threads
172 comments
treatmentreport's website
Hey, we beat zerohedge by discussing Apple price share vs student loan debt here first:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-your-correlation-consideration-transfer-payment
Follow
Befriend (13)
52 threads
2,639 comments
Premium
treatmentreport says
Right on!
Speaking of Zerohedge, you know what we need here? A little William Banzai for the "Just wait until the median Chinese household spends 1/10th their entire yearly income on an iPhone that costs $900 in Beijing":
Ten Thousand Years' health to Chairman Jobs!
Follow
Befriend (8)
204 threads
4,416 comments
Davis, CA
treatmentreport says
Oh please, we've been over this before. The prime demographic purchaser is not a college kid. You just NOTICE them more.
Follow
Befriend
7 threads
172 comments
treatmentreport's website
Vicente,
I don't think the student debt is growing fast because of young college kids. I believe that there are many people in their mid thirties hiding out in business schools, various masters programs, as well as many vocational schools. That demographic fits pretty well with iPad and iPhone purchases.
Follow
Befriend
16 threads
4,426 comments
thunderlips11 says
yes in some cases, the foreign product sale may carry a lower price compared to US markets.
MS windows is actually much much cheaper in china compared to US markets.
Follow
Befriend
16 threads
4,426 comments
bmwman91 says
Increases in RD and SM due to def compensation... cant pour anything since Def Comp is non-cash anyway. Equal amount to be amortized following quarter.
Research and development expenses in the first quarter of 2012 increased $96 million, or 168%, compared to the same period in 2011.
The increase was primarily due to an increase of share-based compensation expense related to Post-2011 RSUs from $4 million in the first quarter of 2011 to $60 million in the same period in 2012. Payroll and benefits expense also increased due to a 55% growth in employee headcount in engineering, design, product management, and other technical functions. This investment supported our efforts to improve existing products and build new products for users, developers, and advertisers.
Marketing and sales expenses in the first quarter of 2012 increased $91 million, or 134%, compared to the same period in 2011. The increase was primarily due to an increase in our user-, developer-, and advertiser-facing marketing, and to a lesser extent, an increase in payroll and benefits expenses resulting from a 34% increase in employee headcount to support global sales, business development, and customer service.
Additionally, share-based compensation expense increased to $23 million in the first quarter of 2012 due to recognition of expense related to Post-2011 RSUs. In the same period in 2011, share-based compensation expense was immaterial.
Follow
Befriend
16 threads
4,426 comments
Jeffrey R. Vetter, Esq
This guy has done more IPOs than anyone can imagine...
He must by now have a room or walls full of Tombstones
Its a small world after all!
Follow
Befriend (2)
33 threads
3,461 comments
thomas.wong1986 says
I'd say Wilson-Sonsini have down a shitload more IPOs than those guys.
So he is on the Facebook S-1. Big deal ;)
Besides, we should not admire lawyers.
Follow
Befriend (6)
5 threads
2,359 comments
justme says
If you are interested, you can probably find the story from more conventional sources than this one, but what he wrote is how I remember it as it was reported in the 1980's:
from http://www.cringely.com/2010/12/edifice-complex/
Follow
Befriend
16 threads
4,426 comments
B.A.C.A.H. says
live-work .. rabidly loyal... hum! aka "commune" where they can worship "The One" and seek enlightment. I dont think many at all were that naive to worship Jobs.
Follow
Befriend (6)
5 threads
2,359 comments
bmwman91 says
that is hilarious, expensive "R&D" in social networking. What kind of expensive R&D is that?
Follow
Befriend (8)
204 threads
4,416 comments
Davis, CA
B.A.C.A.H. says
Focus groups and a lot of hanging out in tapas bars and coffee shops with idle Facebook losers....err users
Follow
Befriend (13)
52 threads
2,639 comments
Premium
LOL.
Follow
Befriend
7 threads
172 comments
treatmentreport's website
Amazon Kindle Fire sales were really good according to Amazon. I would not be surprised if it outsells iPad in q4 with its new version and cheaper content. iPad will still make a lot more money since Fire has no profit margin but it's a real competitor in consumer space. Who is going to be a competitor in corporate space, Nokia?
Follow
Befriend (13)
103 threads
3,768 comments
AAPL needs to split their shares already.